IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2014 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION

Worthy, Yes, but Not This Year

When it comes to whether a candidate belongs in the Hall of Fame—any Hall of Fame—I adopt a simplistic, binary attitude: Either a candidate is a Hall of Famer or is not. I do not subscribe to the kind of relativism that states, "Yes, Candidate A should be in the Hall of Fame—but Candidate B deserves to go in first." Now, in evaluating any candidate, comparison is impossible to avoid. It is integral to the process to evaluate the candidate against others with qualifications of a similar magnitude.

That is not to say that there are not differences between players who do qualify for the Hall of Fame—in other words, not all Hall of Fame players are alike. Those at the top of the leader boards are in the elite, the "inner circle," with those outside that circle occupying various strata until we reach the borderline. Another way to look at this is with the term "first-ballot Hall of Famer," indicating that the player would, or should, be elected in his first year of eligibility—in other words, his qualifications are so apparent that a majority great enough to elect him on his first year on the ballot will do so.

However, the combination of the logjam of qualified candidates and the ongoing backlash against players who used, or are suspected of using, performance-enhancing drugs has prompted a bit of a rethink. Eighteen candidates, ten slots. Who can I defer to an upcoming ballot?

All 18 of these players, the eight whom I'm deferring and the ten whom I would vote for, I have evaluated in detail in previous articles, so I will only touch on the highlights for each.

18. Sammy Sosa (second year on ballot)

No matter how he did it, right fielder Sammy Sosa did hit 609 home runs. That is eighth all-time; he is one of only eight men ever to hit 600 or more home runs in his career; and he is the only man to hit at least 60 round-trippers in three different seasons. Ironically, as I noted last year, he never led the league in home runs in those three seasons, getting bested by Mark McGwire twice (in 1998 and 1999) and Barry Bonds once (in 2001), although he did lead the league in long flies in two other years. He also piled up 1667 RBI while having nine consecutive years with at least 100 RBI. Sosa was also the National League Most Valuable Player in 1998, the same year McGwire set the record for homers in a single season with 70. Whether those 609 dingers were cheap, whether they were done wholly or in part with cheating, we may never know. But there is no guarantee that Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera will get to 600 home runs, leaving Sammy Sosa in some rarefied company indeed.

17. Mark McGwire (eighth year on ballot)

There is no doubt that first baseman Mark McGwire was a Three True Outcomes hitter: He struck out (1596 tines in his career), walked (1317, with only 150 of those intentional), or hit a home run (583 career homers). McGwire is the career leader in hitting a home run in the fewest turns at bat with one home run every 10.61 at-bats, more than a full at-bat less than Babe Ruth (11.76). A lifetime .263 hitter, McGwire's on-base percentage shoots up to .394 with all those walks while he slugged at a .588 clip, both of which account for his outstanding OPS+ of 163 and wOBA of .415 while his wRC+ of 157 is similarly impressive. As I wrote last year, the biggest knock against McGwire, apart from the PEDs issue, is that he was a one-dimensional player—but what a dimension he had. On an aesthetic level, the scale of his home runs was truly Ruthian. In terms of baseball mythology—the good, the bad, and the ugly—Mark McGwire's career was made for the Hall of Fame—and his numbers back that up.

16. Rafael Palmeiro (fourth year on ballot)

In last year's assessment of first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, I concluded that he really wasn't a truly standout player in the sense that he did not have a dominant streak or even one dominant season; he led the league in hits, doubles, and runs once each and in different years; his best showing for Most Valuable Player was sixth (in 1996); and he was selected to only four All-Star squads. In fact, his greatest notoriety is angrily denying to Congress in 2005 that he ever used performance-enhancing drugs—only to fail a drug test months later. Well, he did manage to amass 3020 hits and 569 home runs, although in doing so he seems more like Eddie Murray than Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, the only other three hitters ever to do so. But his slash line is better than Murray's—.288/.371/.515—and in 2831 games and 12,045 plate appearances Rafael Palmeiro compiled enough statistics so that people in the future will wonder, why isn't this guy in the Hall of Fame yet?

15. Jeff Kent (first year on ballot)

On an overstuffed ballot, second baseman Jeff Kent can be very easily overlooked, even to the point that he might not collect the five percent of the vote to keep him on the ballot in 2015. But nearly two and a half years ago, I had Kent pegged as a Hall of Famer, albeit a "tough-sell" Hall of Famer as the ballot was crowded then and has only become more so now. Offensively, Kent is one of the best-hitting second basemen of all time, if not another Rogers Hornsby—what other second baseman could match the Rajah?—then certainly in the discussion with Bobby Doerr, Frankie Frisch, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Gordon, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg. Kent didn't have the speed of the last two, and defensively he was no Robbie Alomar or Frisch or Gehringer, but he was a league-average defensive middle infielder who could hit in the middle of the order. In Hall of Fame strata Jeff Kent is closer to the borderline than to the elite, but he does make it past the threshold—and being the lifetime leader in home runs hit by a second baseman with 351 doesn't hurt, either.

14. Mike Mussina (first year on ballot)

Another one I identified as a "tough-sell" Hall of Famer in 2011, pitcher Mike Mussina is closer to Bert Blyleven than to Greg Maddux in terms of appreciating his effectiveness. Yes, Moose's ERA is high, 3.68, but his FIP of 3.57 suggests that he has done a lot of the heavy lifting himself, as demonstrated by his career total of 2813 strikeouts in 3562.2 innings pitched, yielding a strikeouts-per-nine-innings-pitched (K/9) of 7.1, and a career walk total of only 785, producing an outstanding strikeouts-to-walks (K/BB) ratio of 3.58—better than any pitcher on the ballot not named Curt Schilling. Furthermore, Mussina pitched his entire career in an offensive-rich era and in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball—and although he spent several years with the New York Yankees, he spent more with the Baltimore Orioles having to face those Yankees. With Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Curt Schilling on the ballot, Mike Mussina will not leapfrog over all of those pitchers, but he deserves to be in their Cooperstown company.

13. Edgar Martinez (fifth year on ballot)

Perhaps the most fascinating question concerning designated hitter and third baseman Edgar Martinez this year is whether Frank Thomas's presence on the ballot will help or hurt Martinez. Thomas was a first baseman who played a lot of DH, and because Thomas was a much better hitter than fielder, discussion could turn—again—on whether the DH is even a legitimate position, or, given that Thomas's batting record is stronger than Martinez's, whether Thomas is the better candidate. None of which diminishes the fact that Martinez has established a Hall of Fame-caliber batting record, as I have argued in 2012 and again last year. With a classic 3-4-5 slash line (.312/.418/.515), 2247 hits including an impressive 514 doubles along with 309 home runs, 1219 runs and 1261 RBI, Martinez posted a 147 OPS+, a 147 wRC+, and a .405 wOBA. I think Edgar Martinez will be overlooked again this year, but his time will come.

12. Tom Glavine (first year on ballot)

Admittedly, I had pitcher Tom Glavine pegged as a "no-brainer" Hall of Famer, but given that the logjam of players on the ballot is bigger than I had imagined in 2011, I would defer voting for Glavine for another year. His 305 career wins along with his .600 career winning percentage offers a lot to the traditionalist, and it will be a long time before anyone approaches 300 wins again. Glavine's 3.54 ERA is acceptable for the offense-rich era in which he pitched (and it is slightly lower than Mike Mussina's), but his FIP of 3.95 suggests that the crafty lefthander got a good deal of help from his fielders. His peripherals bear this out: ERA+ of 118, ERA- of 86, FIP- of 94, while Glavine's 1500 walks and 2607 strikeouts in a hefty 4413.1 innings pitched yield a K/9 ratio of 5.3 and a K/BB of 1.74 to go with his 1.314 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Glavine was very good for a long time, netting two Cy Young awards and a World Series Most Valuable Player award, but he is in distinguished company in his first year on the ballot and lacks the dominance to jump to the front of the line, or even to the first ten places in line.

11. Frank Thomas (first year on ballot)

I go back and forth on Frank Thomas, but only on whether I would list him on my ballot in his first year amidst the logjam. In 2011, I already had him listed as one of my five "tough sells," but in looking at how he stacks up against the other hitters on this year's ballot, I damn near bumped him into the top ten; as it is now, he's still knocking on the door, ahead of five other hitters. Yes, he was atrocious at first base—his defensive WAR is a whopping minus 23.4—but his bat more than made up for it. Another hitter with a classic 3-4-5 slash line (.301/.419/.555), Thomas amassed close to 2500 hits (2468) with just under 500 doubles (495) and 521 home runs—tied, poetically enough, with Hall of Famers Willie McCovey and Ted Williams—while scoring 1494 runs, driving in 1704 (22nd all-time), and walking 1667 times (10th all-time). Thomas's peripherals bear this out: 156 OPS+, 154 wRC+, and .416 wOBA. And unless Frank Thomas had chutzpah like you wouldn't believe, he not only denounced PEDs, he openly advocated testing for them (he was the only active player willing to be named in the Mitchell Report, stating precisely those views). Both clean and mean, Frank Thomas is a Hall of Fame hitter.