50 Active Potential Basketball Hall of Famers

Our Basketball Hall of Fame monitor looks at the following criteria:

The most significant factor we look at is how each active player measures up to the last fourteen players who were chosen.  To be specific, we are focusing only on players who were voted through the conventional means and not through any special committee.  What this means that no Direct-Elect Committee Inductees will part of the comparisons.  The Direct-Elect categories are Contributors, Early African-American Pioneers, International, and Veterans.  Please note that at present, we are not ranking women, but may make a separate list in the future. 

Inspired by Jay Jaffe’s JAWS statistic that looks at the best seven-year stretch of a baseball player according to bWAR, we are doing the same with current basketball players.  Specifically, we compiled the average PER, Win Shares and VORP for each of the past Hall of Famers based on their best seven-year period.  The additional thinking behind this is that in Basketball, there is an additional focus on periods of greatness as opposed to sports like Baseball, where compiling statistics is more glorified.

As opposed to what we have done with Football, we are not isolating these metrics by their position as the PER, Win Shares and VORP considers everything.

We are also looking at the amount of All-Star Games and All-NBA Selections.  In terms of the All-NBA and All-Defensive Selections, we are compiling in a weighted fashion.  In terms of Third Team All-NBA Selections, one point will be assigned, Second Team All-NBA Selections will have two points will be granted, and First Team All-NBA Selections will have three points. 

So, let’s continue!

The 14 players from the last four induction classes who we are using for the composite averages are:

Ray Allen, Maurice Cheeks, Vlade Divac, Bobby Jones, Grant Hill, Allen Iverson, Jason Kidd, Tracy McGrady, Yao Ming, Sidney Moncrief, Steve Nash, Shaquille O’Neal, Jack Sikma and Paul Westphal.

Please note that although the International Committee chose Vlade Divac, we include him due to his long NBA career.  He is the only exception to our rule.

Here are the averages:

Based on their elite seven-year stretch the average PER of the last 14 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 21.5.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average Win Shares of the last 14 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 65.1.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average VORP of the last 14 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 27.8.

With All-Star and All-NBA Selections, we look at the entire career of the player. 

The average All-Star Selections of the last 14 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 7.4.

The average All-Pro Selections (based on the pointed average of one for a Third Team, two for a Second Team and three for a First Team Selection) is 9.8.

We are also adding NBA Championships. Often,  players in this team sport more than any other (except for NFL Quarterbacks) are judged by the number of rings they have.  Perhaps, that shouldn't be as regarded as it is, considering the average amount of titles of our last 14 Modern Era Hall of Famers is less than 1.  Specifically, it is 0.79.

Wrapping this up in a bow, the six variables we are looking at Elite Period PER, Elite Period Win Shares, Elite Period VORP, All-Star Games, Weighted All-Pro Selections, NBA Championships.

This is all simple enough, right?

A few more notes before we begin:

As the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame recognizes College and International accomplishments, we will mention those if any are significant.  Those add-ons can (and have) pushed a bubble candidate to immortality in Springfield.

This list is based on the beginning of the 2019-20 Season:

Please remember that this list is based on accomplishments and not necessarily future potential.  Think of it as where they stand if their career ended today.

Any asterisk in front of a statistic indicates that this metric exceeds the average.

**In front of a player means that the seven-year elite period was up to last season and could extend, thus potentially increasing their averages.