IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2014 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION

Will this year's voting, which is open to qualified BBWAA members until the end of the year, with the results announced on January 8, 2014, again send "black smoke" up the Hall of Fame chimney? Or will we see "white smoke" signifying at least one player elected to the Hall? (When Catholic cardinals vote for a new pope, their ballots are burned in a special oven in the Vatican City's Sistine Chapel, and unsuccessful ballots, those that do not produce a new pope, yield black smoke; white smoke signifies a new pope.)

Last year, with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens on the ballot for the first time, the furor over PEDs reached its apex—on numbers alone, Clemens and Bonds are supremely qualified, but because both were poster boys for PEDs, it cast a pall over the entire process. (Bonds was convicted of obstruction of justice in 2011, subsequently upheld on appeal in 2013, in connection with the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) investigation. Clemens was acquitted of perjury charges in 2012 stemming from his testimony before Congress in 2008.) This year, although there are first-time candidates with PEDs associations (Eric Gagné, Paul Lo Duca) on the ballot, the first-time marquee names—Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas—have no such association; indeed, Frank Thomas, the only active player willing to be named in the 2007 Mitchell Report on PEDs and baseball, has always been an outspoken advocate for drug testing and has been sharply critical of any player using illegal substances.

Does that mean that the BBWAA will actually elect at least one of the many qualified candidates? Or does the surfeit of qualified candidates mean that it will be impossible to find 75 percent agreement on any of them? And will the PEDs issue continue to inform the voters' choices? First, let's introduce the 2014 candidates.

Candidates for the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

For the 2014 ballot, there are 36 total candidates, 17 returning candidates from previous ballots and 19 first-time-eligible candidates. The returning candidates have garnered at least five percent of the vote last year (the minimum percentage required to remain eligible) and they have not exceeded their 15th year on the ballot. Last year, Dale Murphy did not receive 75 percent of the vote in his final year of eligibility and was dropped from the ballot without being elected to the Hall of Fame. (Murphy's next chance for the Hall is on a future Expansion Era-committee ballot.) This year, Jack Morris is in his final year of eligibility; last year, he received the second-highest vote total with 67.7 percent. Don Mattingly is in his 14th year this year, while Alan Trammell is in his 13th year.

The remaining returning candidates are Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa, and Larry Walker.

The 19 first-time candidates are Moisés Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagné, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Jeff Kent, Paul Lo Duca, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Kenny Rogers, Ritchie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Frank Thomas, and Mike Timlin.

The following two tables list the 36 candidates on the 2014 ballot, first the 23 position players, and then the 13 pitchers. They are ranked by their career Wins Above Replacement from Baseball Reference (bWAR) along with other representative qualitative statistics (explained below each table).

Here are the 23 position players on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Position Players on the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Position Player	Slash Line	wOBA	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
Bonds, Barry	.298/.444/.607	.435	162.5	164.1	182	173
Bagwell, Jeff	.297/.408/.540	.405	79.5	80.3	149	149
Thomas, Frank	.301/.419/.555	.416	73.6	72.4	156	154
Walker, Larry	.313/.400/.565	.412	72.6	69.0	141	140
Palmeiro, Rafael	.288/.371/.515	.380	71.8	70.0	132	130
Trammell, Alan	.285/.352/.415	.343	70.3	63.7	110	111
Raines, Tim	.294/.385/.425	.361	69.1	66.4	123	125
Martinez, Edgar	.312/.418/.515	.405	68.3	65.6	147	147
Biggio, Craig	.281/.363/.433	.352	64.9	65.3	112	115
McGwire, Mark	.263/.394/.588	.415	62.0	66.3	163	157
Piazza, Mike	.308/.377/.545	.390	59.2	63.6	143	140
Sosa, Sammy	.273/.344/.534	.370	58.4	60.4	128	124
Kent, Jeff	.290/.356/.500	.367	55.2	56.6	123	123
McGriff, Fred	.284/.377/.509	.383	52.6	57.2	134	134
Gonzalez, Luis	.283/.367/.479	.364	51.5	55.3	119	118
Mattingly, Don	.307/.358/.471	.361	42.2	40.7	127	124
Alou, Moisés	.303/.369/.516	.378	39.7	48.2	128	129
Durham, Ray	.377/.352/.436	.345	33.7	30.3	104	105
Lo Duca, Paul	.286/.337/.409	.325	17.9	17.8	97	97
Sexson, Ritchie	.261/.344/.507	.363	17.9	17.2	120	118
Casey, Sean	.302/.367/.447	.353	16.3	16.1	109	109
Jones, Jacque	.277/.326/.448	.333	11.5	13.1	98	97
Snow, J.T.	.268/.357/.427	.344	11.0	12.6	105	106

Slash Line: Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

wOBA: Weighted on-base average as calculated by FanGraphs. Weighs singles, extra-base hits, walks, and hits by pitch; generally, .400 is excellent and .320 is league-average.

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

Here are the 13 pitchers on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Pitchers on the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Pitcher	W-L (S), ERA	bWAR	fWAR	ERA+	ERA-	FIP--
Clemens, Roger	354-184, 3.12	139.4	139.5	143	70	70
Maddux, Greg	355-227, 3.16	104.6	113.9	132	76	78
Mussina, Mike	270-153, 3.68	82.7	82.5	123	82	81
Schilling, Curt	216-146, 3.46	80.7	83.2	127	80	74
Glavine, Tom	305-203, 3.54	74.0	64.3	118	86	94
Rogers, Kenny	219-156, 4.27	51.1	46.8	107	93	97
Morris, Jack	254-186, 3.90	43.8	52.5	105	95	97
Smith, Lee	71-92 (478), 3.03	29.4	27.3	132	76	74
Nomo, Hideo	123-109, 4.24	21.8	24.1	97	102	101
Timlin, Mike	75-73 (141), 3.63	19.2	13.2	125	81	88
Benitez, Armando	40-47 (289), 3.13	17.4	9.0	140	71	88
Gagné, Eric	33-26 (187), 3.47	11.7	11.9	119	83	84
Jones, Todd	58-63 (319), 3.97	10.4	11.2	111	89	89

W-L (S), ERA: Grouping of the pitcher's career win-loss record (and career saves, if applicable) and career earned run average (ERA).

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

ERA-: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

FIP-: Fielding-independent pitching, a pitcher's ERA with his fielders' impact factored out, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 FIP- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

The table below combines both position players and pitchers into a ranking by bWAR with their fWAR values also listed.

All 2014 Hall of Fame Candidates, Ranked by bWAR
Rank	Player	bWAR	fWAR
1	Bonds, Barry	162.5	164.1
2	Clemens, Roger	133.1	145.5
3	Maddux, Greg	104.6	113.9
4	Mussina, Mike	82.7	82.5
5	Schilling, Curt	80.7	83.2
6	Bagwell, Jeff	79.5	80.3
7	Glavine, Tom	74.0	64.3
8	Thomas, Frank	73.6	72.4
9	Walker, Larry	72.6	69.0
10	Palmeiro, Rafael	71.8	70.0
11	Trammell, Alan	70.3	63.7
12	Raines, Tim	69.1	66.4
13	Martinez, Edgar	68.3	65.6
14	Biggio, Craig	64.9	65.3
15	McGwire, Mark	62.0	66.3
16	Piazza, Mike	59.2	63.6
17	Sosa, Sammy	58.4	60.4
18	Kent, Jeff	55.2	56.6
19	McGriff, Fred	52.6	57.2
20	Gonzalez, Luis	51.5	55.3
21	Rogers, Kenny	51.1	46.8
22	Morris, Jack	43.8	52.5
23	Mattingly, Don	42.2	40.7
24	Alou, Moisés	39.7	48.2
25	Durham, Ray	33.7	30.3
26	Smith, Lee	29.4	27.3
27	Nomo, Hideo	21.8	24.1
28	Timlin, Mike	19.2	13.2
29	Lo Duca, Paul	17.9	17.8
30	Sexson, Ritchie	17.9	17.2
31	Benitez, Armando	17.4	9.0
32	Casey, Sean	16.3	16.1
33	Gagné, Eric	11.7	11.9
34	Jones, Jacque	11.5	13.1
35	Snow, J.T.	11.0	12.6
36	Jones, Todd	10.4	11.2

Ranking the candidates by fWAR (the FanGraphs version) will alter the order to some degree but in most cases not enough to favor (or disfavor) a candidate significantly. (Armando Benitez does drop from 31st place to the bottom of the list.) And although WAR should not be the One Statistic to Rule Them All, it is a strong indicator of value, and it is the only statistic that enables comparison between pitchers and position players.

Using 50 wins above a replacement player as a baseline, that makes 21 players reasonable candidates for the Hall of Fame—more than twice the number that can be voted upon on a single ballot. Further examination is needed.