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Committee Chairman

Kirk Buchner, "The Committee Chairman", is the owner and operator of the site.  Kirk can be contacted at [email protected] .
It is another sad day in the world of sports as Pro Football Hall of Famer, Doug Atkins died at the age of 85.

Atkins, a product of the University of Tennessee, was a freak of nature for his time.  Standing at six foot eight and weighing 280 pounds, Atkins was a physical specimen the likes of which the National Football League had never seen, at least not someone who possessed as much skill as he did.

Drafted eleventh overall by the Cleveland Browns in 1953, the Defensive End would be traded to the Chicago Bears and would emerge as a star for the “Monsters of the Midway”.  In Chicago, Atkins would help the Bears win the 1961 NFL Championship and would go to eight Pro Bowls and made a First Team All Pro.

At the age of 37, Atkins would finish his career with the expansion New Orleans Saints, and would have his number retired by the team due to the high regard he was held in.

To put in perspective the type of player that Atkins was, he was a player who both Johnny Unitas and Dick Butkus said they were afraid of.  Butkus was afraid of him?  Damn!

While Sacks were not an official stat when he played, it was estimated by Atkins that he had at least twenty-five Sacks in one season and he was known as one of the pass rushers of his day.

He is a member of both the College and Pro Football Hall of Fame.

We here at Notonhalloffame.com would like to extend our condolences to the friends and family of Doug Atkins at this time. 

Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.

Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!

One thing that has not changed is the number.  We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.

What has changed are the ones debating.  Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog.  This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.



Chairman: Lee Smith retired as the all-time leading leader in Saves, and here we are entering his fourteenth year on the ballot where he came off of a 30.2 percentage, 20 points lower than what he got in 2012. 

How did he plummet so bad?  I think a large part of that is because the stat of the Save is not what it was and when you look at his advanced stats, he isn’t what he should be in reference to other closers.  His 29.6 bWAR and 25.4 JAWS put him ahead of new ballot relievers, Trevor Hoffman and Billy Wagner but with Smith what gets me is that unlike Hoffman, I never felt that Smith was a dominant closer, and what I mean is that did I ever feel he was one of the top two or three in the game.

I think what dissuades me the most about Smith is that for a reliever, how much he didn’t matter when the light shone brightest (his playoff numbers are terrible) and for all of the Saves he accumulated, how many do people remember?

Spheniscus, this is a guy who every year I talk myself more and more out of the Hall.

Spheniscus: I saw him play for two and a half seasons during my impressionable years when I followed every pitch of every game. Never once did I realize that he might be a Hall of Famer some day. All we talked about was how Smith wasn’t as good as the Steamer, Bob Stanley. And really, Bob Stanley wasn’t that good.

When we traded him to the Cardinals for former Twins “great” Tom Brunansky, there isn’t a Sox fan I know who didn’t think we got the better of the deal. Although, it helps that Brunansky made an incredible play in the right field corner to clinch a Sox playoff berth on the last game of the 1990 (the “Morgan Magic”) season. I mean we thought so highly of Smith that we were psyched when another former Twins “great” (and my former neighbor) Jeff Reardon was signed to replace him. And neither Reardon nor Brunansky are ever sniffing the Hall.

I already did his stats in the Trevor Hoffman section and I agree with you, he just doesn’t make it on paper. But at no point does he make it in reputation either. Literally the definition of a compiler. And a compiler in a category that no one cared about until Rivera retired. If someone passes Rivera in career saves people will notice. No one noticed when Hoffman passed Smith. And no one noticed with Rivera passed Smith either. I have 22 other people on this list ahead of him in my opinion. He’s not getting in. Ever.


Chairman: B. I. N. G. O.  

The Chairman cannot even remotely disagree with anything you said…however…

I can disagree with my own thoughts.

Had I a ballot twelve years ago I very well might have voted for Smith, erroneously believing that being the all-time leader in Saves should warrant him serious consideration for the Hall of Fame, and that would have been the wrong choice to make. 

There is no other stat in Baseball (and yes I will include wins and losses) that you can poke more holes in than the save.  You can stink and still get a save.  You can throw one pitch and get a save.  You have no opportunity to pick up a save if your team is never winning late in the game.  You called Lee Smith a compiler, and sure enough when I looked him up in Webster’s, there he was looking like he just came off of an advertisement for Soul Glo. 

There is no “lights out” feeling when Smith took the mound.  His playoff stats are not good, which was only 5.1 innings with an ERA near 9.  Some difference maker if he hardly got his team to the dance, and when he showed up it was the chicken dance. 

You called it when you as a Boston fan didn’t care when he left.  Did they at Wrigley either? 

He got over 50% in 2012 but last year he barely topped 30%.  He was lucky to get that. 

Spheniscus: And he won’t get that 15th year on the ballot bump either. If you had to choose between Hoffman and Smith for the 10th vote on your ballot, you would take Hoffman (again, you should take Billy Wagner over either but no one is going to do that). And believe me, he is the 10th vote on a lot of people’s ballots. My guess is that he ends up in the 20s and we unfortunately have this “debate” again next year. Then he mercifully drops off the ballot. This is one case where the new 10 year limit would have actually helped.

Chairman:  He will finish with his lowest total, and yes, he is now the third best reliever on the ballot.

I will go one step further in that he will never make a Veteran’s ballot in the future. 

My fictional vote is a no, and my prediction echoes yours:  24%.

Spheniscus: Looking at the list, he probably finishes somewhere around 12th overall. Last year, 12th got 12.9%. That seems like a big drop, so I’ll say 20%. 

Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.

Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!

One thing that has not changed is the number.  We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.

What has changed are the ones debating.  Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog.  This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.



Chairman: We have taken some flak for having Trevor Hoffman ranked in the 40’s on the Baseball Hall of Fame list and there have been so many articles written painting him as a lock.  Is he really though?

Hoffman was the career leader in Saves for five years (taking it over from Lee Smith, before being eclipsed by Mariano Rivera) but Saves are a stat that isn’t in vogue and for good reason, as you can go out, shit the bed for an inning and as long your team gets the win, you get that etched in the SV column, though I will say that 601 is a number that I can’t (or anyone) take lightly.

Here is my thing against Hoffman.  He is constantly compared to Mariano Rivera, but Rivera blows him away in every stat, traditional and sabremetric.  Actually in sabre, it is not even close. 

WAR: Rivera: 57.1, Hoffman: 28.4

JAWS: Rivera: 43.0, Hoffman: 24.0

WPA: Rivera: 56.65, Hoffman: 34.12

Well, proving that Hoffman is no Rivera doesn’t exactly prove that he doesn’t belong in Cooperstown and at the very least he has other HOF relievers beat in many statistical categories.

Still, I am struggling to find that special intangible, and I can’t find it.

Spheniscus, what am I missing?

Spheniscus: Well, he certainly is better than Mike Hampton. He is an interesting case to me. He held the record while he was playing, so people presumed he’d be a Hall of Famer. But having the record hasn’t helped Lee Smith get into the Hall. And perhaps that is where we should start. Rivera is so far and away better than Hoffman, perhaps it is unfair to compare the two. So let’s look at three sets of stats below…

PLAYER

ERA

ERA+

FIP

WHIP

H9

HR9

SO/W

ASG

MVP/CY

A

2.87

141

3.08

1.058

7.0

0.8

3.69

7

5/4

B

2.31

187

2.73

0.998

6.0

0.8

3.99

7

2/2

C

3.03

132

2.93

1.256

7.9

0.6

2.57

7

4/4



All three of these guys are currently on the ballot and none are Mariano Rivera.  If you could only vote for one, except for the number of times that he received an MVP or Cy Young vote, player B clearly appears to be the superior player to the other two players. His ERA is lower, his FIP is lower, his WHIP is lower, the hits he gives up per 9 innings is lower and his ERA+ and strike outs per walk is higher than the two other players. All of those things are good.

Bad news for both Hoffman (Player A) and Lee Smith (Player C) is that Player B is actually Billy Wagner. But Wagner has over 50 saves fewer than Smith and almost 200 fewer Hoffman and is likely a one and done. This despite getting the exposure of playing in New York versus Hoffman toiling away in San Diego and Milwaukee.

So is Hoffman a Hall of Famer, probably. Is he a shoo in? Not on this list. There are too many great players on this list. And with Mariano on the way, if he doesn’t get in soon there is a possibility that he may not get in at all.


Chairman:  I went on a tirade on Wagner where I crapped on his post-season numbers.  Hoffman’s are a lot better, but that isn’t difficult:

In six series, he pitched 13 Innings with 4 Saves, a 3.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.231.  Those aren’t bad numbers, but it translates to an average pitcher, which bothers me considering he is supposed to be one of the best of all time at what he did.

You know that intangible I was trying to figure out about Hoffman.  I think I got it.  When I was checking out YouTube, I came across countless fan videos of him entering to AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells”.  Not him pitching mind you…just coming out to pitch.  His Baseball Reference page is sponsored by a fan, who is waiting to hear that song when he accepts his induction to Cooperstown. 

That gimmick superseded that of comparable pitchers in larger markets…like Billy Wagner for example.

It happens all the time, most recently with “Linsanity” a couple of years back with the Knicks.  Was he on fire at the time?  Absolutely!  But if he wasn’t a dorky looking Chinese guy, there is no way he would be as popular?   Not a chance!

Honestly, I think that song accounts for a sizable chunk of his popularity, and yes if he is still on the ballot when Rivera gets there, he is screwed.

Spheniscus: He very well may be on the ballot when Rivera gets there, but he probably won’ t be screwed. Wagner will be gone. Smith will be gone. And who else is there to challenge him for the second closer spot? Danys Baez? Arthur Rhodes? Guillermo Mota? Francisco Cordero? Kerry Wood? Brad Lidge? Jason Isringhausen? Derek Lowe? Darren Oliver? I mean seriously, those are your closing options between now and 2019 when Rivera not only gets in on the first ballot but is carried aloft by a chorus of angels into Cooperstown. His competition in 2020? Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz, and Heath Bell. He’ll be fine.

If he is a Hall of Famer he should still be even if the greatest player at his position is a contemporary. The question is without the saves record for five years is he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so. But he has that cache, so it makes it seem like he should be a Hall of Famer. Which means he probably gets in eventually. Just not this year.

Chairman:  Yep.  He probably will get in eventually, and agreed, not this year.  He wouldn’t get my pretend vote, but where will he finish this year?  I am going to throw out 38%, but if that swung twenty points in either direction I would not be surprised.



Spheniscus: He doesn’t get my pretend vote either. Billy Wagner was a better player, but literally no one thinks Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer. That said he will definitely stay on the ballot and without Wagner and Smith to compare him to after this year will probably start making the climb to being a Hall of Famer sometime in 2022. Where does he start? The old folks will probably be swayed by the saves record. The young guys won’t. So I’ll say 30%.

We here at Notinhalloffame.com thought it would be fun to take a look at the major awards in North American team sports and see how it translates into Hall of Fame potential.

Needless to say, different awards in different sports yield hall of fame potential.  In basketball, the team sport with the least amount of players on a roster, the dividend for greatness much higher.  In baseball, it is not as much as a great individual season does not have the same impact.