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2016 HOF Debate: Nomar Garicaparra
Jan 01, 2016
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Nomah! Last year I incorrectly predicted Nomar Garciaparra as a one and done candidate, though I wasn’t really off by much. The shortstop squeaked by with 5.5% of the vote and when that happened I was trying to figure out why as his accumulative metrics don’t put him there.
I forgot one thing. Just how much of a rock star Mr. Mia Hamm was.
This was the guy whose jersey Jimmy Fallon wore in those Saturday Night Live skits. This was the guy who women swooned for and did so without pissing off their men. This is the guy who lost the “r” at the end of his last name.
(Side Note): As much as I am a fan of his late night show, I will go down on record for saying that Fallon was the worst SNL performer ever. Thank you, Peter Griffin for decking him for his constant mugging for the camera.
Spheniscus, you are a member of the Fenway Faithful! Was Nomarmania running wild or was this just a perception of someone from the outside looking in?
Spheniscus: As a member of the Red Sox Nation I have to say I had a problem with Fallon for a very long time based on his quotes in promoting “Fever Pitch” in which he said he was a Mets, Yankees and Red Sox fan. Such a person cannot exist. Not even the biggest front-running poser fan could make a coherent argument that makes that fandom make sense.
But back to Nomahhhh. I love Nomar. Everyone I know loves Nomar. Without exaggerating, I have five friends who have named pets Nomar (three dogs, one cat, and a parrot). Up until 2000, he was on a complete Hall of Fame trajectory. There was the Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar argument and we smugly superior Red Sox fans would have taken Nomar over the other two (although we wanted Jeter’s rings).
In 1999 Orioles reliever Al Reyes hit Nomar in the wrist and it never really healed. He had surgery in the first part of 2001 to repair it, but was really never the same player after that. In 2002, John Henry bought the Red Sox and whatever the reason the relationship with the new ownership and Nomar was never the same. By 2004, he was a moody, unhappy former superstar who was incredibly unhappy with being in Boston.
The Sox traded him for Orlando Cabrera, who really wasn’t any better than Nomar had been when he played. But the notoriously prickly Cabrera was still a better fit in the clubhouse. The Sox immediately went 22-3, became the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit and against the hated Yankees no less, and swept their way to their first World Series title in 86 years.
When Nomar was traded we were more sad than angry as if a couple that you cared about went through a divorce that was the best thing for them. And when the Sox won their rings we all hoped that Nomar would come back to collect his.
Honestly, I was pleasantly surprised that he made it past the first year on the ballot. I don’t hold out much hope for his long term prospects, however.
Chairman: You know for the curator of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame, you would think I would remember the press junkets for Fever Pitch! (maybe because at that time I had yet to forgive Fallon for his SNL mugging)
Either way, yes, I don’t have to be in Massachusetts to know that no self-respecting BoSox fan is one of the Mets or the Yankees. Does that even exist there? It can’t be!
Still, here we are and Nomahhhhh, has made another year. I have to tell you, what you have told me has made me understand his star power a little more; yet at the same time, they couldn’t win with him. I am still trying to figure out his star power.
With Boston winning without him, is he still revered as a star there?
Another question… as a Red Sox fan, what is he missing for HOF consideration?
Spheniscus: Yes, Nomar is still revered here. He was too beloved while he was here and his falling out had everything to do with management and nothing with the fans. He still says how much he loved Boston. The fact we won the World Series immediately after he was traded also helps assuage any wounds that existed. So yes, we still love Nomahhhhhhhhhh!
As for what he is missing? A time machine to stop that pitch from hitting him in the wrist. Other than that? Longevity. More specifically a longer sustained peak. Because his first six years (not counting his injury shortened 2001 season) are definitely Hall of Fame worthy. He was between 6th and 9th in WAR each of those seasons. The last six were decidedly not so. Outside of 2006, his last All Star appearance, he was merely a very good, often injured player. And the two players to whom he was originally compared, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, have completely outstripped him in every category.
If there is a Half Hall of Fame somewhere (another idea for the site?) he would be a first ballot inductee. Along with Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Fernando Valenzuela.
Chairman: That sounds like a good idea. A half career All-Stars! I like that a lot!
At the end of the day, if I had a ballot he isn’t getting my vote. The Hall of Fame is supposed to be about what you did, not what could have been. It’s a harsh reality, but one that does separate from the very good to the elite.
He got 5.5% last year, which is where I will peg him this year. I predict he will hang on just a bit longer so that we can mispronounce his name next year.
Spheniscus: It’s okay. No one has ever really pronounced his name correctly. The reason we call him Nomahhh in Boston is can you imagine us trying to pronounce his last name with our accent? Gahhciarparhhaar (my approximation, not actually a word in the Welsh language. Well, I don’t think so anyway).
Nomar is not a Hall of Famer. He’ll get 6% this year. With 4 guys coming off last year and only two first ballot potentials joining this year, he’ll pick up a couple of votes. I give him two more years before dropping off.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Nomah! Last year I incorrectly predicted Nomar Garciaparra as a one and done candidate, though I wasn’t really off by much. The shortstop squeaked by with 5.5% of the vote and when that happened I was trying to figure out why as his accumulative metrics don’t put him there.
I forgot one thing. Just how much of a rock star Mr. Mia Hamm was.
This was the guy whose jersey Jimmy Fallon wore in those Saturday Night Live skits. This was the guy who women swooned for and did so without pissing off their men. This is the guy who lost the “r” at the end of his last name.
(Side Note): As much as I am a fan of his late night show, I will go down on record for saying that Fallon was the worst SNL performer ever. Thank you, Peter Griffin for decking him for his constant mugging for the camera.
Spheniscus, you are a member of the Fenway Faithful! Was Nomarmania running wild or was this just a perception of someone from the outside looking in?
Spheniscus: As a member of the Red Sox Nation I have to say I had a problem with Fallon for a very long time based on his quotes in promoting “Fever Pitch” in which he said he was a Mets, Yankees and Red Sox fan. Such a person cannot exist. Not even the biggest front-running poser fan could make a coherent argument that makes that fandom make sense.
But back to Nomahhhh. I love Nomar. Everyone I know loves Nomar. Without exaggerating, I have five friends who have named pets Nomar (three dogs, one cat, and a parrot). Up until 2000, he was on a complete Hall of Fame trajectory. There was the Jeter, A-Rod, Nomar argument and we smugly superior Red Sox fans would have taken Nomar over the other two (although we wanted Jeter’s rings).
In 1999 Orioles reliever Al Reyes hit Nomar in the wrist and it never really healed. He had surgery in the first part of 2001 to repair it, but was really never the same player after that. In 2002, John Henry bought the Red Sox and whatever the reason the relationship with the new ownership and Nomar was never the same. By 2004, he was a moody, unhappy former superstar who was incredibly unhappy with being in Boston.
The Sox traded him for Orlando Cabrera, who really wasn’t any better than Nomar had been when he played. But the notoriously prickly Cabrera was still a better fit in the clubhouse. The Sox immediately went 22-3, became the first team to come back from a 3-0 deficit and against the hated Yankees no less, and swept their way to their first World Series title in 86 years.
When Nomar was traded we were more sad than angry as if a couple that you cared about went through a divorce that was the best thing for them. And when the Sox won their rings we all hoped that Nomar would come back to collect his.
Honestly, I was pleasantly surprised that he made it past the first year on the ballot. I don’t hold out much hope for his long term prospects, however.
Chairman: You know for the curator of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame, you would think I would remember the press junkets for Fever Pitch! (maybe because at that time I had yet to forgive Fallon for his SNL mugging)
Either way, yes, I don’t have to be in Massachusetts to know that no self-respecting BoSox fan is one of the Mets or the Yankees. Does that even exist there? It can’t be!
Still, here we are and Nomahhhhh, has made another year. I have to tell you, what you have told me has made me understand his star power a little more; yet at the same time, they couldn’t win with him. I am still trying to figure out his star power.
With Boston winning without him, is he still revered as a star there?
Another question… as a Red Sox fan, what is he missing for HOF consideration?
Spheniscus: Yes, Nomar is still revered here. He was too beloved while he was here and his falling out had everything to do with management and nothing with the fans. He still says how much he loved Boston. The fact we won the World Series immediately after he was traded also helps assuage any wounds that existed. So yes, we still love Nomahhhhhhhhhh!
As for what he is missing? A time machine to stop that pitch from hitting him in the wrist. Other than that? Longevity. More specifically a longer sustained peak. Because his first six years (not counting his injury shortened 2001 season) are definitely Hall of Fame worthy. He was between 6th and 9th in WAR each of those seasons. The last six were decidedly not so. Outside of 2006, his last All Star appearance, he was merely a very good, often injured player. And the two players to whom he was originally compared, Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, have completely outstripped him in every category.
If there is a Half Hall of Fame somewhere (another idea for the site?) he would be a first ballot inductee. Along with Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, and Fernando Valenzuela.
Chairman: That sounds like a good idea. A half career All-Stars! I like that a lot!
At the end of the day, if I had a ballot he isn’t getting my vote. The Hall of Fame is supposed to be about what you did, not what could have been. It’s a harsh reality, but one that does separate from the very good to the elite.
He got 5.5% last year, which is where I will peg him this year. I predict he will hang on just a bit longer so that we can mispronounce his name next year.
Spheniscus: It’s okay. No one has ever really pronounced his name correctly. The reason we call him Nomahhh in Boston is can you imagine us trying to pronounce his last name with our accent? Gahhciarparhhaar (my approximation, not actually a word in the Welsh language. Well, I don’t think so anyway).
Nomar is not a Hall of Famer. He’ll get 6% this year. With 4 guys coming off last year and only two first ballot potentials joining this year, he’ll pick up a couple of votes. I give him two more years before dropping off.
2016 HOF Debate: Jim Edmonds
Jan 01, 2016
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, I have to tell you that this is the one I am most looking forward to talking about, but it is not because I am going into this with any strong opinion. Actually, it is the exact opposite, as here is a guy that I really want to explore his career and haven’t really done so before.
I give you Jim Edmonds, a four time All Star a World Series Champion with the St. Louis Cardinals but somebody that I have always regarded as an above average player, but not once really thought of as Cooperstown material, but am I wrong?
I know there are a lot of people who groan about sabremetrics but like it or not, this is going to be the litmus test that a lot of decision makers for the Hall will go by and with Edmonds, his case gets stronger. With a bWAR of 60.3, there are still ten on the ballot that are higher, but this remains a stacked lot so that really shouldn’t be held against him.
Here is what should, that 60.3, is lower by than the average HOF at that position (70.4) as his JAWS (51.4 to the 57.2 average) is also lower.
If you argue with traditional numbers, he doesn’t hit any real “magic numbers”. He is shy of 400 Home Runs, did not make 2,000 Hits, though I can argue that his career Slugging Percentage, which is over .500, should be one of those magic numbers and let’s say it is traditional. I remember that stat on the back of my old baseball cards!
What I think will happen is that Edmonds will fall victim of this group as cases can be made for ten players over Edmonds. My God, could we see him as a “one and done?”
Spheniscus: We definitely could. He is comparable to Duke Snider who is in the Hall. The rest are folks who are probably in the Hall of the Very Good. Guys like Dale Murphy (who I would have voted for), Fred Lynn, Ellis Burks and Shawn Green. And interestingly Larry Walker, who I’m sure we’ll get to later.
Although honestly, the hitting numbers don’t matter to me with him. My mental image of him is superman flying through the air to catch something he had no business getting to in the first place. And that is why I actually think that Edmonds has a chance of being one and done and still making the Hall on what I call the Mazeroski exception. I’m not saying it is a great chance, but it exists for him in a way that it doesn’t for say Sammy Sosa were he to fall off the ballot this year.
Chairman: I like that term. “The Mazeroski Exception”. Permission to use that in the future? Before, I go on to Edmonds, can I state that I would used mine on Joe Carter? I won’t explain that one as I think you know why as a Jays fan I say that!
I think I am more optimistic than you are about Edmonds. I too remember his athletic feats on defense, but I think his metrics are good enough and I think that run in baseball mad St. Louis where he won a World Series really helps. He is one of those guys that I could see some of the voters, who might have him placed 12th on their ballot, push him up a couple spots so that he can get past the first year.
Whether it should happen or not, the human element plays a factor for a lot of the voters. Honestly, I don’t know that I would be any different.
Spheniscus: Permission granted. And I remember my first baseball game back in 1985 when Joe Carter hit a home run for the Indians that went farther than I could ever imagine a ball going. And he may have hit a more important home run at some point in his career. So you have my vote on Carter as well.
And perception is reality. If you asked folks on the site to pick between Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker for the Hall, my guess is that Edmonds wins that vote. Even though Walker is probably the better player. So we’ll see, but my guess is that we will be seeing Edmonds on the ballot next year. And the year after. And the year after. And the year after. He’ll end up somewhere in the low teens.
Chairman: I think there a lot of people who would vote for him, and possibly want to, but I go back to what I said earlier. It is not that hard to find ten people to put ahead of him.
With my pretend ballot, I am doing just that, and I would pass him over, and feel bad about doing it, but not for very long.
Still, I think he will just squeak by with a single digit, maybe in the six to seven range, so that we can reevaluate him at least one more year.
Spheniscus: I agree with you. He may take Nomar’s spot. Let’s say 7.5 to 8 percent. That doesn’t give him much of a cushion not to be a one and done. Which is too bad because he is one of the 15 on this list I would vote for. Just not in the first 10.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, I have to tell you that this is the one I am most looking forward to talking about, but it is not because I am going into this with any strong opinion. Actually, it is the exact opposite, as here is a guy that I really want to explore his career and haven’t really done so before.
I give you Jim Edmonds, a four time All Star a World Series Champion with the St. Louis Cardinals but somebody that I have always regarded as an above average player, but not once really thought of as Cooperstown material, but am I wrong?
I know there are a lot of people who groan about sabremetrics but like it or not, this is going to be the litmus test that a lot of decision makers for the Hall will go by and with Edmonds, his case gets stronger. With a bWAR of 60.3, there are still ten on the ballot that are higher, but this remains a stacked lot so that really shouldn’t be held against him.
Here is what should, that 60.3, is lower by than the average HOF at that position (70.4) as his JAWS (51.4 to the 57.2 average) is also lower.
If you argue with traditional numbers, he doesn’t hit any real “magic numbers”. He is shy of 400 Home Runs, did not make 2,000 Hits, though I can argue that his career Slugging Percentage, which is over .500, should be one of those magic numbers and let’s say it is traditional. I remember that stat on the back of my old baseball cards!
What I think will happen is that Edmonds will fall victim of this group as cases can be made for ten players over Edmonds. My God, could we see him as a “one and done?”
Spheniscus: We definitely could. He is comparable to Duke Snider who is in the Hall. The rest are folks who are probably in the Hall of the Very Good. Guys like Dale Murphy (who I would have voted for), Fred Lynn, Ellis Burks and Shawn Green. And interestingly Larry Walker, who I’m sure we’ll get to later.
Although honestly, the hitting numbers don’t matter to me with him. My mental image of him is superman flying through the air to catch something he had no business getting to in the first place. And that is why I actually think that Edmonds has a chance of being one and done and still making the Hall on what I call the Mazeroski exception. I’m not saying it is a great chance, but it exists for him in a way that it doesn’t for say Sammy Sosa were he to fall off the ballot this year.
Chairman: I like that term. “The Mazeroski Exception”. Permission to use that in the future? Before, I go on to Edmonds, can I state that I would used mine on Joe Carter? I won’t explain that one as I think you know why as a Jays fan I say that!
I think I am more optimistic than you are about Edmonds. I too remember his athletic feats on defense, but I think his metrics are good enough and I think that run in baseball mad St. Louis where he won a World Series really helps. He is one of those guys that I could see some of the voters, who might have him placed 12th on their ballot, push him up a couple spots so that he can get past the first year.
Whether it should happen or not, the human element plays a factor for a lot of the voters. Honestly, I don’t know that I would be any different.
Spheniscus: Permission granted. And I remember my first baseball game back in 1985 when Joe Carter hit a home run for the Indians that went farther than I could ever imagine a ball going. And he may have hit a more important home run at some point in his career. So you have my vote on Carter as well.
And perception is reality. If you asked folks on the site to pick between Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker for the Hall, my guess is that Edmonds wins that vote. Even though Walker is probably the better player. So we’ll see, but my guess is that we will be seeing Edmonds on the ballot next year. And the year after. And the year after. And the year after. He’ll end up somewhere in the low teens.
Chairman: I think there a lot of people who would vote for him, and possibly want to, but I go back to what I said earlier. It is not that hard to find ten people to put ahead of him.
With my pretend ballot, I am doing just that, and I would pass him over, and feel bad about doing it, but not for very long.
Still, I think he will just squeak by with a single digit, maybe in the six to seven range, so that we can reevaluate him at least one more year.
Spheniscus: I agree with you. He may take Nomar’s spot. Let’s say 7.5 to 8 percent. That doesn’t give him much of a cushion not to be a one and done. Which is too bad because he is one of the 15 on this list I would vote for. Just not in the first 10.
Notinhalloffame.com wants your input!
Jan 01, 2016
Published in
Not in Hall of Fame News
Gang, this is the time where we ask your help!
As you know, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has made their announcement as to who has made their Hall of Fame for the Class of 2016. This will necessitate a change in our ranking and through the years, you have let us know what you thought with your comments and votes, with those who are on the rock list.
You have also let us know on our “Rock and Roll Futures” with a comment or two, but now the next batch of futures will be placed on the list.
We would like to hear where you would consider ranking the following:
Alanis Morissette
Bikini Kill
Boyz II Men
Crash Test Dummies
Cypress Hill
Helmet
Kyuss
Live
Marc Anthony
Mercury Rev
Naughty by Nature
Pearl Jam
PM Dawn
Ricky Martin
Seal
The Cranberries
The Prodigy
Tori Amos
Tupac Shakur
Many thanks to all of you have told us your thoughts and have voted on the rock and other lists that we have.
We intend to have the new Rock list up as soon as we can!
As you know, the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame has made their announcement as to who has made their Hall of Fame for the Class of 2016. This will necessitate a change in our ranking and through the years, you have let us know what you thought with your comments and votes, with those who are on the rock list.
You have also let us know on our “Rock and Roll Futures” with a comment or two, but now the next batch of futures will be placed on the list.
We would like to hear where you would consider ranking the following:
Alanis Morissette
Bikini Kill
Boyz II Men
Crash Test Dummies
Cypress Hill
Helmet
Kyuss
Live
Marc Anthony
Mercury Rev
Naughty by Nature
Pearl Jam
PM Dawn
Ricky Martin
Seal
The Cranberries
The Prodigy
Tori Amos
Tupac Shakur
Many thanks to all of you have told us your thoughts and have voted on the rock and other lists that we have.
We intend to have the new Rock list up as soon as we can!
2016 HOF Debate: Billy Wagner
Jan 01, 2016
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Like me you probably noticed that he isn’t getting a lot of press for debuting on the ballot. It makes sense I suppose, as entering with Trevor Hoffman puts him in the shadow, but is this is a shadow he should really be in?
While he is well behind in Saves (601 to 422), there are a lot of stats where Wagner comes out ahead. He has superior ERA (2.31 to 2.87), WHIP (0.998 to 1.058), SO/W (3.99 to 3.69) numbers and they have exactly the same JAWS of 24.0.
What people don’t mention about Wagner (maybe because they don’t mention him at all) is just how much he stunk in the playoffs. In 8 playoff series, Wagner pitched 11.2 Innings with a 10.03 ERA and a 1.971 WHIP. Hoffman hasn’t been a playoff stud either, but this is so atrocious to me that it counters so much of what he did in the regular season in my eyes. Honestly, I think Wagner is going to struggle just to get 2.5 percent of the vote, and I don’t think that is a wrong tally for him at all.
Spheniscus: Wagner was a better player than Hoffman. There, I said it. I also proved it in Hoffman’s section. He is a better player than Lee Smith. Also proved in Hoffman’s section. He also has the misfortune of being a bit of a jerk who couldn’t get it done in the postseason in the biggest stage of all, New York, and of never having held the saves record.
If Wagner had played in Kansas City, who was so down for most of his career, we would think of him entirely differently. A great player toiling away for terrible teams always pulls at the heartstrings a little more and changes the writer’s perception. And even though his save numbers would undoubtedly been lower due to fewer opportunities, his vote tally for this Hall would be higher. As it is, 10 years from now, he’ll be buying a ticket to see Hoffman’s plaque. I think 1% is about where he will fall.
Chairman: I think his biggest misfortune is debuting on the same ballot as Hoffman. I have no problem agreeing with you that I would rather have Wagner than Hoffman in the regular season (and hope to God I don’t need either one of them in the post-season because my team has a two digit lead going into the ninth). I am trying to think in this crowded ballot who is going to pick them both? The sad thing is I have read countless articles about Hoffman’s credentials. Hell, I got blasted via email when he debuted in the 40’s on our list and not in the top ten!
Basically, what I am saying is that I don’t see anybody picking Wagner over Hoffman (expect maybe us), and frankly, I don’t know that I would pick either.
Spheniscus: I said at the beginning I have 15 guys on this list I would vote into the Hall. None of them are closers. Wagner is first on my list of the three. Hoffman is first on the list of most people. He has no real friends in the media. There is no buzz. There is no way he is getting in. I just want it recorded somewhere in this process that he was the best at his position on that ballot. And that and $23 will get him a ticket to watch the Hall of Fame induction this summer.
Chairman: I will finish this one up short and sweet. Wagner would not get my vote this year, and I suspect not very many others either. Frankly, I think if he gets 2% it is a win for him, which is where I expect him to fall.
Spheniscus: I said he’d struggle to get 2.5%, 2% is probably closer. But I’ll take the under. He will get 1.8% of the vote. More than 25% lower than Hoffman and 15% lower than Smith. All because he never held a record that absolutely no one cares about. Which is insane, but the way of the world.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Like me you probably noticed that he isn’t getting a lot of press for debuting on the ballot. It makes sense I suppose, as entering with Trevor Hoffman puts him in the shadow, but is this is a shadow he should really be in?
While he is well behind in Saves (601 to 422), there are a lot of stats where Wagner comes out ahead. He has superior ERA (2.31 to 2.87), WHIP (0.998 to 1.058), SO/W (3.99 to 3.69) numbers and they have exactly the same JAWS of 24.0.
What people don’t mention about Wagner (maybe because they don’t mention him at all) is just how much he stunk in the playoffs. In 8 playoff series, Wagner pitched 11.2 Innings with a 10.03 ERA and a 1.971 WHIP. Hoffman hasn’t been a playoff stud either, but this is so atrocious to me that it counters so much of what he did in the regular season in my eyes. Honestly, I think Wagner is going to struggle just to get 2.5 percent of the vote, and I don’t think that is a wrong tally for him at all.
Spheniscus: Wagner was a better player than Hoffman. There, I said it. I also proved it in Hoffman’s section. He is a better player than Lee Smith. Also proved in Hoffman’s section. He also has the misfortune of being a bit of a jerk who couldn’t get it done in the postseason in the biggest stage of all, New York, and of never having held the saves record.
If Wagner had played in Kansas City, who was so down for most of his career, we would think of him entirely differently. A great player toiling away for terrible teams always pulls at the heartstrings a little more and changes the writer’s perception. And even though his save numbers would undoubtedly been lower due to fewer opportunities, his vote tally for this Hall would be higher. As it is, 10 years from now, he’ll be buying a ticket to see Hoffman’s plaque. I think 1% is about where he will fall.
Chairman: I think his biggest misfortune is debuting on the same ballot as Hoffman. I have no problem agreeing with you that I would rather have Wagner than Hoffman in the regular season (and hope to God I don’t need either one of them in the post-season because my team has a two digit lead going into the ninth). I am trying to think in this crowded ballot who is going to pick them both? The sad thing is I have read countless articles about Hoffman’s credentials. Hell, I got blasted via email when he debuted in the 40’s on our list and not in the top ten!
Basically, what I am saying is that I don’t see anybody picking Wagner over Hoffman (expect maybe us), and frankly, I don’t know that I would pick either.
Spheniscus: I said at the beginning I have 15 guys on this list I would vote into the Hall. None of them are closers. Wagner is first on my list of the three. Hoffman is first on the list of most people. He has no real friends in the media. There is no buzz. There is no way he is getting in. I just want it recorded somewhere in this process that he was the best at his position on that ballot. And that and $23 will get him a ticket to watch the Hall of Fame induction this summer.
Chairman: I will finish this one up short and sweet. Wagner would not get my vote this year, and I suspect not very many others either. Frankly, I think if he gets 2% it is a win for him, which is where I expect him to fall.
Spheniscus: I said he’d struggle to get 2.5%, 2% is probably closer. But I’ll take the under. He will get 1.8% of the vote. More than 25% lower than Hoffman and 15% lower than Smith. All because he never held a record that absolutely no one cares about. Which is insane, but the way of the world.