Troy Aikman (2006), Brett Favre (2016), Peyton Manning (2021) Dan Marino (2005), Kurt Warner (2017), Steve Young (2005).
Quarterbacks: Troy Aikman (2006), Brett Favre (2016), Peyton Manning (2021) Dan Marino (2005), Kurt Warner (2017), Steve Young (2005).
The first note is that the 2021 addition of Peyton Manning brought this to six as Marino and Young entered the Hall in the same year, thus it was prudent for this to be expanded to the last six. Once another QB enters the Hall, Marino and Young will be removed from the Modern Positional Average.
Please also note that three of these QBs (Aikman, Marino & Young) competed in the 1990s where offensive output is not what it is today. This is one of the reasons why we are adding Super Bowls and Super Bowl appearances to offset this and since Quarterbacks are graded on that accomplishment more than all other positions combined, it seems appropriate. Please also note that while Quarterbacks are not initially thought of based on their rushing totals, more and more pivots act as a dual-threat, and this helps to offset those who aid their offense as much as with their legs as they do with their arm.
*The addition of Manning has increased most of the MPA stats at QB. Games Played went up by 9.9. Approximate Value went up by 15.5. AV/G went up by be nearly .03. Pro Bowls went up by 1.1. Passing Yards went up over 5,000. Touchdown Passes went up by 39. Rushing Yards slipped by nearly 140. Rushing Touchdowns stayed roughly the same, edging up only by .2. Super Bowl wins stayed the same and Super Bowl Appearances climbed up to 2.8
2022 Pre-Season Ranlk #2, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #2, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #3.
We have not been doing this for long (four years) but we have a new man on the top of the mountain with the retirement of Tom Brady, but the position is no different. Now a New York Jet, Aaron Rodgers ascends to #1, and has become a more polarizing figure as the year's go by. There is no doubt that Rodgers has the statistics and the accolades to be a first ballot entrant into Canton, but can he do what Brady did by leading a second franchise to a Super Bowl win? Rodgers' best years are likely behind him, but the four-time MVP might not be done adding to the trophy case, as we can't forget that two of those MVPs occureed in 2020 and 2021. Since we consider him already a Hall of Famer, statistically, we are looking to see how many more rungs on all-time lists. Going into the season, he needs only 3 in Approximate Value to overtake Fran Tarkenton for sixth, and is 33 Touchdown Passes away from Brett Favre for fourth. In regards to Passing Yards, if he throws for close to 4,400 Yards, Rodgers passes Dan Marino, Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers. A huge year (5,034 PY or more) gets him over Ben Roethlisberger for sixth overtime.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #21, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #31, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #47.
There is only one player in the top ten under 30 in the top ten, and that in itself says it all. Patrick Mahomes quarterbacked the Kansas City Chiefs to two Super Bowls, is a former two-time MVP, and holds two First Team All-Pros. Here is how dominating he has been...if Mahomes retires now, he has already done enough to enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame, and he should not have to wait long. There are some players who have to compile stats, and Mahomes is not that man. The fact that he could play another ten years should scare every team that is not Kansas City for that time frame. If he continues to play, he will be number one on this list, though he does not need to be.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #10, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #17, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #19.
The Russell Wilson era in Seattle ended after a Super Bowl win and nine Pro Bowls. The balnaced Quarterback had a disasturous first year in Denver, and we saw paralells with Donovan McNabb's exit from Philadelphia. as many pundits stated that his Hall of Fame candidacy had ended. We don't feel that way, and we thiink that even if Wilson's second season in the Rockies fail, that he has a solid Hall of Fame case. There is no Hall of Fame case for a QB that we are more intruiged in 2023 than Wilson.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #17, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #24, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #28.
We said when Matt Ryan was ranked that he has the most intriguing case, but Cam Newton will have the most polarizing one. Entering 2023 as a Free Agent, his combined run with New England and Carolina was not good enough to get him a job last year, though he still showed the wheels with his rushing. That is the key, as we have a former Super Bowl participant and MVP, who will have far less Passing Yards and Touchdown Passes than your elite modern Quarterback, but he has more Rushing Yards and Rushing Touchdowns (especially TDs) than many Running Backs in Canton. Seriously, please look at his rushing numbers when you look at his overall body of work. Also, like Ryan, had Carolina won that Super Bowl, would the pendulum be swinging the other way? It probably would, but the tea leaves are pointing against him.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #38, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #46, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #76.
Jackson has only been in the NFL for five seasons, but anyone who has won the AP MVP has a higher than 70% chance of being in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Obviously, if his career ends tomorrow, he won’t get in, but that is unlikely, and again, we can’t stress the importance of winning that award. Coincidentally, he was recently named #1 by his peers on the NFL 100 and Jackson also ALREADY has shattered the MPA for Rushing Yards, and is well over the MPA for AV/G, trailing only Patrick Mahomes. These are the reasons, we can rank him higher than far more tenured passers. We can't to see what he has for us next.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #37, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #59, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #67.
Last year, we said the following "What a difference a year makes! Stafford was a Lion for 12 years, racking up yards but no individual accolades, and was entrenched as a second-tier QB. The Rams traded for him, and he became a Super Bowl Champion in year one in Los Angeles and became nationally known. Articles were written (and scoffed at) proclaiming him a Hall of Famer, and he isn't as of this writing, but he sure is a hell of a lot closer than he was. Never forget, how important Super Bowl wins are for the Quarterback position for Canton consideration".
So...here we are a year later amd the Rams plummetted to below .500 with Stafford missing half the season due to injury and posting a pedestrian 10-8 TD-INT ratio. He is closer to 40 than 30, but nevertheless is a champion. How many yards and touchdowns would Stafford need to compile? Would 70,000 Yards and 250 TDs do it?
2022 Pre-Season Rank #55, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #63, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #80.
Prescott has only been in the NFL for seven years, while going to two Pro Bowls, but he has done so in the pressure cooker that is the Dallas Cowboys. Flirting between the top tier and second tier of pivots, Prescott's last Pro Bowl was 2018, but he is capable at any time of getting that First Team All-Pro, winning an OPOY, or even making the Super Bowl. Prescott is over the AV/G, and that should not be discounted.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #87, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #121.
Cousins continues to be one of the most under-the radar Qbs (or overrated depending on your point of view) over the last five years. Cousins' run with Minnesota has far surpassed what he did in Washington, with three of his four Pro Bowls coming as a Viking. Notably, he vaulted past 35,000 Passing Yards and 250 Touchdown Passes last year, and is the type of QB that if the Viking win the Super Bowl, a plethora of articles will be written about his Hall of Fame candidacy.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #69, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #85, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #88.
Carr was a Pro Bowl Selection three straight years (2015-17) and while he ha has had four 4,000 Yard seasons since other Quarterbacks have passed him in the hierarchy of greatness at the position. Carr still has time to make that Hall of Fame push, but it has to start immediatley in his first year in New Orleans. He is probably a QB that needs to win it all to have a realistic shot.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #98, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #117.
Allen had his breakout year in 2020, and the Bills Quarterback led the NFL in Approximate Value twice. If Allen can lead Buffalo to a Super Bowl win, which is possible in 2023, the sky is the limit.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #70, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #52, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #83.
Oh boy. We had Watson pegged as a future Hall of Fame inductee, and even though he was leading a team in Houston that did not have the supporting cast to win a Super Bowl, there was nobody who pointed the finger at Watson for that not happening. Since then, Watson has been beset by scandals, that cost him the entire 2021 Season, and the first 11 Games of this year, and it may not be over yet. Watson did not play much in 2022 and he will have to perform at a level so elite for an extended period of time to alleviate the stench around his name. He has the talent, and he can put up the numbers, but this is one hell of a mountain to climb. We try to do these lists on stats, as we think that is usually the deciding factor, but there are always extraordinary circumstances, and honestly, we don't know quite know how to factor that in. If this were any other sport, we likely wouldn't bother to rank Watson, but this is not any other sport.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #82, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #115.
Only a four-year veteran, Murray is one of the most exciting players in football, and the Quarterback is over the MPA for AV/G, but last year was a poor one ofr Murray, and he is obviously disgruntled. If his off-field issues continue to play into his work on the field, we might be seeing the erosion of one of the most promising players in the last twenty years.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #84, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #92, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #124.
We know. Flacco has no Pro Bowls, but he does have a Super Bowl win, and was great in the playoffs to obtain it. He also has 40,000 Yards, and while the end is near, we guarantee that when Flacco when finally retires, there will be a few articles that openly ask if he is a Hall of Famer. He won’t be, but he belongs here as long as he doesn’t submit his retirement papers.2022 Pre-Season Rank #95, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #122.
Tannehill never felt that there was any Hall of Fame potential in Miami, but with Tennessee, he has become a more complete package and is now a Pro Bowler. If the Titans win the Super Bowl, which could happen if Tannehill has a better season than last year, Tannehill will jump up more than anyone else on this list.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #96, 2021 Pre-Season #102 Rank, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #150.
Four years ago, we said this: “Dalton has played his entire career with the Bengals and is still capable of a monster year that could catapult him up this list”
Three years ago, we said this: So much for that. Dalton lost his starting QB job last year (though many pointed out the woes of Cincinnati were not his fault. His stat padding days might be over as he is now Dak Prescott’s backup, but there was a time when he was a really good Quarterback, and could wind up starting somewhere again.”
As it turned out, Dalton did get starts in Dallas when Prescott got injured, and was decent, though not spectacular. After that, he was back up in Chicago, where he saw some playing time, and he entered 2022 in the same situation in New Orleans. Dalton is now a backup in Carolina, who could see some starts depending on how things go. No matter how it ends for Dalton, he is a three-time Pro Bowl Quarterback, and that is impressive.
2022 Pre-Season Rank #112. 2021 Pre-Season Rank #106, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #117.
The Rams gave up on Goff, trading him to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, and the Rams won the Super Bowl. As for Goff, who was a two-time Pro Bowler, and did lead the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, has his work cut out for him in Detroit and we thought last year was a season from following off of this list. We jumped the gun, as Goff and the Lions were better than Stafford and the Rams in 2022, and in 2023, are a trendy pick to go deep in the playoffs. Football is a funny game isn't it?
2022 Pre-Season Rank: #129
The Chargers have their Quarterback for the long haul in Justin Herbert, who was the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl Selection in 2021. Herbert barely has a record over .500 rght now, but the QB does not have a lot of stars around him, but he should Los Angeles; centerpiece for years. Already setting the record for the most Passing Yards in his first three seasons, could he do the same for four?
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2022: Pre-Season Rank: Unranked
Jalen Hurts was the runner-up for the 2019 Heisman, and there were a few questions that surrounded him in the following draft. There should not have been. Already a Super Bowl participant and an MVP runner-up, Hurts has an AV/G over the MPA in his brief career, which a Quarterback will have to own over a long period of time to get into the Hall of Fame. We are also impressed by his Rushing Touchdowns numbers, and could we see the first QB to ever rush for 100 TDs?
2022: Pre-Season Rank: Unranked
Joe Burrow led LSU to the National Championship in 2019 and individually won the Heisman Trophy. Taken number one in the draft, Burrow brought the Bengals closer than they have ever been to winning their first Super Bowl. Burrow is one of the best in the game, is in his mid-20s and could be the man who takes Cincinnati to a Lombardi Trophy.