Troy Aikman (2006), Brett Favre (2016), Peyton Manning (2021) Dan Marino (2005), Kurt Warner (2017), Steve Young (2005).
Quarterbacks: Troy Aikman (2006), Brett Favre (2016), Peyton Manning (2021) Dan Marino (2005), Kurt Warner (2017), Steve Young (2005).
The first note is that the addition of Peyton Manning brought this to six as Marino and Young entered the Hall in the same year, thus it was prudent for this to be expanded to the last six. Once another QB enters the Hall, Marino and Young will be removed from the Modern Positional Average.
Please also note that three of these QBs (Aikman, Marino & Young) competed in the 1990s where offensive output is not what it is today. This is one of the reasons why we are adding Super Bowls and Super Bowl appearances to offset this and since Quarterbacks are graded on that accomplishment more than all other positions combined, it seems appropriate. Please also note that while Quarterbacks are not initially thought of based on their rushing totals, more and more pivots act as a dual-threat, and this helps to offset those who aid their offense as much as with their legs as they do with their arm.
*The addition of Manning has increased most of the MPA stats at QB. Games Played went up by 9.9. Approximate Value went up by 15.5. AV/G went up by be nearly .03. Pro Bowls went up by 1.1. Passing Yards went up over 5,000. Touchdown Passes went up by 39. Rushing Yards slipped by nearly 140. Rushing Touchdowns stayed roughly the same, edging up only by .2. Super Bowl wins stayed the same and Super Bowl Appearances climbed up to 2.8
2020 Pre-Season Rank #1, 2021 Pre-Season Rank #1.
Who else could be at #1? Brady shocked the world by signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020, thus giving himself a new challenge, which he met by winning his seventh Super Bowl. Brady destroys every Modern Positional Average but Rushing Yards, but nobody cares about that. After retiring and unretiring less than a month later, Brady enters 2022 as the all-time leader in Super Bowl Rings, Approximate Value, Passing Yards,, Pass Completions and Touchdown Passes with nobody even close. There may never be a more deserving first-ballot inductee in football than Brady, who will require no conversation among the Hall of Fame committee.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #2, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #3.
The overall popularity and reputation of Aaron Rodgers was a roller coaster in 2021, as his vaccination duplicity turned off many, though he won a fourth MVP, which is one more than the only man ahead of him on this list, Tom Brady. Rodgers and Green Bay faltered in the playoffs but they are back to contend this year, though his top weapon, Davante Adams, is now in Las Vegas. Rodgers also has done something that Brady, nor anyone else on this rank had done, which is exceeding ALL Modern Positional Averages (with the exception of Super Bowls, which are exclusive to Quarterbacks only). Without Adams, it can be expected that he will regress in 2022, but as far as Canton is concerned, it won't matter. Love him or hate him, Rodgers is a Hall of Famer right now.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #17, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #19.
The Russell Wilson era in Seattle is over after a Super Bowl win and nine Pro Bowls. A balanced Quarterback, Wilson is not going to light it up in Yards, but his efficiency has few equals, making him one of the top pivots in the game. Wilson, who begins his tenure in Denver, is one of the few on this list with an AV/G of at least one, and we think there is a Canton case right now.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #13, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #13
In our eyes, this is one of the most intriguing Hall of Fame cases in upcoming years, and it involves a player who is not exactly intriguing. As a Falcon, Ryan took them to the Super Bowl (though lost in spectacular fashion) won an MVP, broke the MPA in Passing Yards and Touchdown Passes, and should go over 60,000 Yards in his first year as a Colt. Still, he is treading water, ranked at the same spot as the last two years before, and is following the Phillip RIvers route of needing to compile to get into the Hall. The numbers are there, but the moment isn't it. If Atlanta did not blow that lead, what would be saying now?
2021 Pre-Season Rank #24, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #28.
We said that Matt Ryan has the most intriguing case, but Cam Newton will have the most polarizing one. Entering 2022 as a Free Agent, his combined run with New England and Carolina was not good enough to get him a job beginning the season, though he still showed the wheels with his rushing. That is the key, as we have a former Super Bowl participant and MVP, who will have far less Passing Yards and Touchdown Passes than your elite modern Quarterback, but he has more Rushing Yards and Rushing Touchdowns (especially TDs) than many Running Backs in Canton. Seriously, please look at his rushing numbers when you look at his overall body of work. Also, like Ryan, had Carolina won that Super Bowl, would the pendulum be swinging the other way? It probably would.
2021 Pre-Season Record #31, 2020 Pre-Season Record #47.
When Mahomes won the AP MVP in 2018, we said to ourselves that is still too soon to rank the Quarterback. Now, he is a two-time Super Bowl participant, one-time,Super Bowl Winner, Super Bowl MVP and an MVP. Any player who has ever done all of that has entered Canton. While we know he has only played five years (really four), his AV/G is the highest of anyone by far on this list. If Mahomes’ career ended tomorrow, would the world of sports talk about him as a potential Hall of Famer? You bet they would!
2021 Pre-Season Rank #59, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #67.
What a difference a year makes! Stafford was a Lion for 12 years, racking up yards but no individual accolades, and was entrenched as a second-tier QB. The Rams traded for him, and he became a Super Bowl Champion in year one in Los Angeles and became nationally known. Articles were written (and scoffed at) proclaiming him a Hall of Faer, and he isn't as of this writing, but he sure is a hell of a lot closer than he was. Never forget, how important Super Bowl wins are for the Quarterback position for Canton consideration.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #46, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #76.
Jackson has only been in the NFL for four seasons, but anyone who has won the AP MVP has a higher than 70% chance of being in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Obviously, if his career ends tomorrow, he won’t get in, but that is unlikely, and again, we can’t stress the importance of winning that award. Coincidentally, he was recently named #1 by his peers on the NFL 100 and Jackson also ALREADY has shattered the MPA for Rushing Yards, and is well over the MPA for AV/G, trailing only Patrick Mahomes. These are the reasons, we can rank him higher than far more tenured passers.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #63, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #80.
Prescott has only been in the NFL for six years, while going to two Pro Bowls, but he has done so in the pressure cooker that is the Dallas Cowboys. Flirting between the top tier and second tier of pivots, Prescott's last Pro Bow was 2018, but he is capable at any time of getting that First Team All-Pro, winning an OPOY, or even making the Super Bowl. Prescott is over the AV/G, and that should not be discounted.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #85, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #88.
Carr was a Pro Bowl Selection three straight years (2015-17) and while he ha has had four 4,000 Yard seasons since other Quarterbacks have passed him in the hierarchy of greatness at the position. Carr still has time to make that Hall of Fame push, but it has to start soon, and with the current makeup of the silver and black going into the year, it could be now.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #52, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #83.
Oh boy. We had Watson pegged as a future Hall of Fame inductee, and even though he was leading a team in Houston that did not have the supporting cast to win a Super Bowl, there was nobody who pointed the finger at Watson for that not happening. Since then, Watson has been beset by scandals, that cost him the entire 2021 Season, and the first 11 Games of this year, and it may not be over yet. When (or if) he comes back, he will have to perform at a level so elite for an extended period of time to alleviate the stench around his name. He has the talent, and he can put up the numbers, but this is one hell of a mountain to climb. We try to do these lists on stats, as we think that is usually the deciding factor, but there are always extraordinary circumstances, and honestly, we don't know quite know how to factor that in. If this were any other sport, we likely wouldn't bother to rank Watson, but this is not any other sport.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #115.
Only a two-year veteran, Murray is one of the most exciting players in football, and the Quarterback is over the MPA for AV/G. We can’t wait to see how this plays out for Murray, though there has been talk that he is unhappy in his current situation.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #92, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #124.We know. Flacco has no Pro Bowls, but he does have a Super Bowl win, and was great in the playoffs to obtain it. He also has 40,000 Yards, and while the end is near, we guarantee that when Flacco when finally retires, there will be a few articles that openly ask if he is a Hall of Famer. He won’t be, but he belongs here as long as he doesn’t submit his retirement papers.
Last Year’s Rank #121.
Cousins passed 30,000 Passing Yards last year, but the bar for pivots is getting higher and higher. He also needs to have a monster year, which he has yet to have, although, he has had many very good ones.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #122.
Tannehill never felt that there was any Hall of Fame potential in Miami, but with Tennessee, he has become a more complete package and is now a Pro Bowler. If the Titans win the Super Bowl, which could happen, Tannehill will jump up more than anyone else on this list.
2021 Pre-Season #102 Rank, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #150.
Three years ago, we said this: “Dalton has played his entire career with the Bengals and is still capable of a monster year that could catapult him up this list”
Two years ago, we said this: So much for that. Dalton lost his starting QB job last year (though many pointed out the woes of Cincinnati were not his fault. His stat padding days might be over as he is now Dak Prescott’s backup, but there was a time when he was a really good Quarterback, and could wind up starting somewhere again.”
As it turned out, Dalton did get starts in Dallas when Prescott got injured, and was decent, though not spectacular. After that, he was back up in Chicago, where he saw some playing time, and he enters 2022 in the same situation in New Orleans. No matter how it ends for Dalton, he is a three-time Pro Bowl Quarterback, and that is impressive.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #117.
Allen had his breakout year in 2020, and the Bills Quarterback led the NFL in Approximate Value last year. If Allen can lead Buffalo to a Super Bowl win, which is possible in 2022, the sky is the limit.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #112, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #132.
Oh boy. How different would it be if Wentz wasn’t hurt late in the 2017 season and won the MVP? How different would it be if he was the Quarterback in that year’s Super Bowl? Very different! Wentz still made the Pro Bowl and was a Second Team All-Pro that year, but it has been downhill ever since. Last season, was awful for Wentz, who led the NFL in Interceptions (15), and it would be his last for the Eagles. He joins Washington this year, after a blah year in Indianapolis, and he needs to make a comeback desperately, as he almost plummeted off of this list completely.
2021 Pre-Season Rank #106, 2020 Pre-Season Rank #117.
The Rams gave up on Goff, trading him to the Detroit Lions for Matthew Stafford, and the Rams won the Super Bowl. As for Goff, who was a two-time Pro Bowler, and did lead the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance, has his work cut out for him in Detroit and is probably a year away from falling off this list. Even if he regains his stature as a top ten QB, he has to win a Super Bowl somewhere or forever be the guy who was swapped out to win a Title.
2021 Pre-Season Rank: Unranked
The Chargers have their Quarterback for the long haul in Justin Herbert, who was the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowl Selection last year. Herbert might have a losing record right now, but the QB does not have a lot of stars around him, but he should Los Angeles; centerpiece for years.