50 Active Potential Basketball Hall of Famers

Our Basketball Hall of Fame monitor for Basketball looks at the following criteria:

The most significant factor we look at is how each active player measures up to the last fourteen players who were chosen.  To be specific, we are focusing only on players who were voted through the conventional means and not through any special committee. What this means that no Direct-Elect Committee Inductees will part of the comparisons.  The Direct-Elect categories are Contributors, Early African-American Pioneers, International, and Veterans.  Please note that at present, we are not ranking women, but may make a separate list in the future.  

Inspired by Jay Jaffe’s JAWS statistic that looks at the best seven-year stretch of a baseball player according to bWAR, we are doing the same with current basketball players.  Specifically, we compiled the average PER, Win Shares and VORP for each of the past Hall of Famers based on their best seven-year period.  The additional thinking behind this is that in Basketball, there is an additional focus on periods of greatness as opposed to sports like Baseball, where compiling statistics is more glorified.

As opposed to what we have done with Football, we are not isolating these metrics by their position as the PER, Win Shares and VORP considers everything.

We are also looking at the amount of All-Star Games and All-NBA Selections.  In terms of the All-NBA and All-Defensive Selections, we are compiling in a weighted fashion.  In terms of Third Team All-NBA Selections, one point will be assigned, Second Team All-NBA Selections will have two points will be granted, and First Team All-NBA Selections will have three points.  

So, let’s continue!

We have made one huge change, as we added the members from the 2022 Class, and focused exclusively on the last five years.  This has generated a pool of 17, players, who we are looking at.

The 17 players from the last five induction classes who we are using for the composite averages are:

Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Maurice Cheeks, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Manu GinobiliTim Hardaway, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Sidney Moncreif, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Jack Sikma, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber and Paul Westphal

With the addition of Ginobili and Hardaway, the Averages have all gone down, but remember that a year ago, they exploded with Garnett, Bryant and Duncan joining.

Here are the averages:

Based on their elite seven-year stretch the average PER of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 21.4.  In our previous tally, it was 22.5.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average Win Shares of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 70.0.  In our previous tally, it was 70.9.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average VORP of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 32.4, slightly up from 32.0 last year.

With All-Star and All-NBA Selections, we look at the entire career of the player.  

The average All-Star Selections of the last 16 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 8.3, down from 9.4 last year.

The average All-NBA Selections (based on the pointed average of one for a Third Team, two for a Second Team and three for a First Team Selection) is 11.9, again significantly lower than the 14.6 from last year.

We are also adding NBA Championships. Often,  players in this team sport more than any other (except for NFL Quarterbacks) are judged by the number of rings they have.  Perhaps, that shouldn't be as regarded as it is, considering the average amount of titles of our last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is a little more than 1.  Specifically, it is 1.4, which is way higher than the .79 it was two years ago.

Wrapping this up in a bow, the six variables we are looking at Elite Period PER, Elite Period Win Shares, Elite Period VORP, All-Star Games, Weighted All-Pro Selections, NBA Championships.

This is all simple enough, right?

A few more notes before we begin:

As the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame recognizes College and International accomplishments, we will mention those if any are significant. Those add-ons can (and have) pushed a bubble candidate to immortality in Springfield.

This list is based on the beginning of the 2020-21 Season:

Please remember that this list is based on accomplishments and not necessarily future potential.  Think of it as where they stand if their career ended today.

Any asterisk in front of a statistic indicates that this metric exceeds the average.

**In front of a player means that the seven-year elite period was up to last season and could extend, thus potentially increasing their averages.

***In front of a player means that he has yet to play seven seasons.

Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Maurice Cheeks, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Manu Ginobili, Tim Hardaway, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Sidney Moncreif, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Jack Sikma, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber, and Paul Westphal

 

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.4
  • Elite Period Win Shares 70.0
  • Elite Period VORP 32.4
  • All-Star Selections 8.3
  • All-Pro Selections 11.9
  • NBA Championships 1.4

James has become every bit of the Hall of Fame lock that pundits said he would be when he was drafted 1st Overall in 2003.  James doesn't just exceed our six criteria; he destroys them. Already a bona fide Hall of Famer years ago, the only question left is where he finishes in terms of the greatest of all-time.  Two years, under the rigors of the COVID-19 bubble, James took the Lakers to a championship, earning his fourth, and leading three teams to the promised land. He isn’t done yet.   Pre-2019-20 Rank: #1, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #1

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 29.7 (+8.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 114.3 (+44.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 61.9 (+29.5)
  • All-Star Selections 17 (+8.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 44 (+32.1)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes James has also won 2 Olympic Gold, 1 Olympic Bronze, 1 FIBA World Bronze, 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States

As each year goes by, Kevin Durant becomes less and less media-friendly, but does it matter?  It shouldn't, as his legend is officially secured.  Now that his run with the Golden State Warriors is officially over, he did exactly what he set out to do in winning a championship, which he won two. The former MVP enters his third season with Brooklyn, with the first one being on the disabled list, and the second won seeing most of his teammates on the DL.  The Nets are again favorites to win it all, and another title adds to his already colossal resume.  Notably, Durant won another Gold Medal and is now the highest scorer ever in Olympic history.  Pre-2020-21 Rank: #2, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #2.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.1 (+5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 97.7 (+27.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 38.6 (+6.2)
  • All-Star Selections 11 (+2.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 24 (+12.1)
  • NBA Championships 2 (+0.6)
  • Additional Notes Durant also has won 3 Olympic Golds, 1 World Championship Gold for the United States. He was a Consensus National College Player of the Year, All-American, and Big 12 Player of the Year at Texas

Chris Paul is already a Hall of Fame player, but he is missing an NBA Championship. Two years ago, in what was his only year in Oklahoma City, he rebounded with his first All-Star year after a three-year drought, and the Point Guard was also named a Second Team All-Star.  Paul was traded to Phoenix last year and not only he was still productive and leading by example, but he also led the Suns to their first Finals in decades.  Paul also was an All-Star again and Second Team All-NBA for the second year in a row.  That elusive NBA Title could still happen.  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #3, Pre 2020-21 Rank #4

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 26.6 (+5.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 96.1 (+26.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 43.9 (+11.5)
  • All-Star Selections 10 (+1.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 21 (+9.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Paul also has won 2 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Bronze for the United States, and was a Consensus All-American and First Team All-ACC player at Wake Forest

James Harden had another intriguing NBA season; in that he was a scoring machine but was on a team that was unable to make the NBA Finals. Coming off his third straight scoring title, and another First Team All-Star, he is set to begin the year in Brooklyn after getting out of Houston early last year.   Regardless of what happens moving forward, Harden is a former MVP and three-time Scoring Champion, and that is more than enough to get him into Springfield.  Yet to taste an NBA Title, Harden is on a loaded Nets team that could win it all in 2022.  While the narrative on Harden has some negatives, the stat line and individual awards will supersede the negative for Hall consideration.  Pre-2019-20 Rank #4, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #3.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.4 (+6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 101.2 (+31.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 52.5 (+20.1)
  • All-Star Selections 9 (+0.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Harden also has won 1 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Gold for the United States, and was a First Team All-American and Pac-10 Player of the Year at Arizona State

Steph Curry has two MVPs and three NBA Championships, and we can say that he is a Hall of Famer now as nobody who has done that has been kept out of Springfield.  Golden State is no longer the team they used to be and there will not be a fourth title this year for Curry, but there will be many 30-Point Games.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #5, Pre-2020-21 Rank #5.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.8 (+4.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 89.4 (+19.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 45.4 (+13)
  • All-Star Selections 7 (-1.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 17 (+5.1)
  • NBA Championships 3 (+1.6)
  • Additional Notes Curry also has 2 World Cup Gold Medals for the United States and was a Consensus First Team All-American at Davidson

After nine years with the Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook joined the Houston Rockets, only to be traded to Washington in a shocking move.  Westbrook now is a Los Angeles Laker, and while the last two years have been disappointing in terms of Wins, he has become the undisputed master of the triple-double  While he does have some accomplishments (namely a Championship) that he is still chasing, the former MVP and above stats show him as a Hall of Famer already.  This is arguably the best chance that Westbrook has for a title as though his team is older than most, it is a loaded club full of future Hall of Famers, many first ballot like Westbrook.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #6. Pre-2020-21 Rank: #6.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 26.0 (+4.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 71.5 (+1.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 49.4 (+17)
  • All-Star Selections 9 (+0.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Westbrook also has won 1 Olympic Gold and 1 FIBA World Gold with the United States. He would play two years at UCLA and was once the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP and is still might improve.  He has only played eight seasons; and as his second year was just average, his Elite Period numbers are likely to jump, and they did last year, as he is now over the MPA in All-NBA Selections, VORP, and Win Shares. There has never been a two-time MVP that never made the Hall of Fame, and going into last season, the only blemish on his record was the lack of an NBA Championship.  That changed last year, with the Bucks winning it all, Antetokounmpo has done everything you need for Springfield immortality.  Amazingly, he is still well under 30.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #14, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #12.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.1 (+3.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 73.4 (+3.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 36.0 (+3.6)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 13 (+1.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Antetokounmpo has represented Greece in two World Cups

Howard falls short on the Elite Period VORP, but this was a player who at one time was considered the best Center in the NBA and was also, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year.  Howard was considered a Hall of Fame lock eight years ago, but since then he has bounced around the league and it also doesn't help that a plethora of former teammates have said they were happier without him.  That narrative went away when he performed well in a reserve role with the Los Angeles Lakers, and was an asset in their championship win. Howard joined the 76ers last year, and he could win another title with the Lakers this year, the team he rejoined for the third time.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #7, Pre-2020-21 Rank #7.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.9 (+2.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 71.6 (+1.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 25.6 (-6.8)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Howard also has won 1 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Bronze and 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States.

Everybody has known for years that Anthony Davis is a phenomenal player, but he never had anyone close to his level to play at his side.  That was until he joined the Los Angeles Lakers and suited up next to LeBron James.  He is entering his second year as a Laker, and in his first, his desire to leave New Orleans proved accurate as he won the NBA Title with LeBron.  Davis could easily win more, and his elite period metrics can still increase, though his injury-plagued 2020-21 might prevent this.  Notably, he exceeded the MPA in All-Star Games last year.  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #11, Pre 2020-21 Rank #8.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 28.1 (+6.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 77.0 (+7)
  • Elite Period VORP 36.0 (+3.6)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 12 (+0.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Davis has also has won 1 Olympic Gold and 1 FIBA World Cup playing for the United States. At the University of Kentucky, he would lead the Wildcats to a National Championship. He would also win the Final Four MVP, was a Consensus First Team All-American, Consensus MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year.

Leonard won two NBA Championships with two different teams (San Antonio & Toronto) and was the MVP in both Finals.  That fact alone makes him a Hall of Famer in many eyes. He falls below the Elite Period Win Shares but has now passed that in VORP.  He is still in his elite period, so Leonard could rise the WIn Shares over the MPA.  If he leads the Los Angeles Clippers to a championship, it will never matter what stats he posts after.  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #13, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #11.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.8 (+4.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 63.8 (-6.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 32.2 (-0.2)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 13 (+1.1)
  • NBA Championships 2 (+0.6)
  • Additional Notes Leonard was also a Second Team All-American at San Diego State

Lillard is not discussed much in terms of the Basketball Hall of Fame, but small-market Portland has one of the best players that few people talk about. Lillard is now a six-time All-NBA player, and he is past all of the All-Elite thresholds, except for Titles and All-Star Games.  If you don’t watch the Trail Blazers, you are missing out, as he is one of the best basketball players in the game, and after 2021, he added an Olympic Gold Medal.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #19, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #13.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.0 (+2.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 76.9 (+6.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 36.9 (+4.5)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 12 (+0.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Lillard won Olympic Gold with the United States once, and played at Weber State and was a two-time Big Sky Player of the Year.

Carmelo Anthony waited for what had to feel like forever until he was picked up by the Portland Trail Blazers, but he proved he still has something to offer, and he was resigned by Rip City afterward.   Now Melo joins LeBron to chase that elusive NBA ring.  Anthony only makes one of the above six thresholds, but the common belief is that he is a Hall of Fame worthy player at this moment.  For those who say he never won an NBA Title (which you can see that many haven’t), Melo is a three-time Gold Medalist and NCAA Champion.   We have to reiterate that those accolades matter in terms of Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame selection.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #8, Pre-2020-21 Rank #10.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.4 (+1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 51.5 (-18.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.5 (-14.9)
  • All-Star Selections 10 (+1.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Anthony has also has won 3 Olympic Golds and 1 Olympic Bronze, 1 FIBA World Bronze and 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States. He is also an NCAA Champion, Final Four MVP and Consensus Second Team All-American at Syracuse

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We wrote this two years ago: “When we redo this at the end of the 2019-20 Season, Nikola Jokic could very well be the person who rises the most on this rank.” He did.  That was nothing compared to what Jokic did last year, as he won the MVP, and despite having only six years in, he is already has a higher Elite Period VORP, which compliments his PER.  The Joker is one of the top players in the NBA right now, and he is still trending in the right direction, as barring injury, he will exceed the Elite Period in Win Shares.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #42, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #31.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 26.0 (+4.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 64.4 (-5.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 34 (+1.6)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Jokic plays Internationally for Serbia and has won a Silver Medal in the Olympics

When we were putting this together, we actually thought Kyrie would be higher in terms of his advanced stats, but his elite period is still on. Irving's reputation may have taken a slight tumble with the way things went in Boston, but if he takes Brooklyn deep into the playoffs and a title, later on, all is forgiven (except in Boston). Irving's international accomplishments also help him, should his game fall off a cliff, but now that he is healthy and with an equally healthy Kevin Durant as a teammate, this could be a pivotal year for his Hall chances, though his vaccination status could impede him.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #15, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #14.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.2 (+1.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 52.6 (-17.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.1 (-8.3)
  • All-Star Selections 7 (-1.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Irving also played one year for Duke and has won an Olympic Gold and World Cup Gold Medal for the United States.

George would have the best year in the second of two years in OKC. Joining the Los Angeles Clippers last year and joining his friend, Kawhi Leonard, should have proved fruitful for George, but it has not yet done much for George in terms of finger jewelry as the Clippers who have yet to make the FInals. Nevertheless, George is still young and the Clippers are again top contenders.  An NBA Championship, even as the “number two” would be colossal for George, though he is now over the Elite Period in VORP.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #12, Pre 2020-21 Rank #15.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.1 (-1.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 66.9 (-3.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 32.9 (+0.5)
  • All-Star Selections 7 (-1.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes George also has won 1 Olympic Gold Medal with the United States. He also played two years at Fresno State.

Unless his elite period shifts Griffin will fall short on Win Shares and VORP but is very close.  Three things bode well for his Hall of Fame candidacy.  The first is that he had a comeback year in 2018-19, being named Third Team All-NBA after a four-year absence from an All-NBA accolade. The second is that he is a former National Player of the Year at Oklahoma, and this counts in the overall picture.  The third is that he is with Brooklyn, a bona fide NBA TItle contender.  Even if he is a bench player, a title is colossal for Griffin's HOF chances.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #16, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #16.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.8 (+1.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 62.4 (-7.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 25.6 (-6.8)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Griffin was also a National College Player of the Year, First Team All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year at Oklahoma.

Jimmy Butler has had a tumultuous career but after his first year in Miami where he took the Heat to the Finals, his stock has skyrocketed.  His Elite Period metrics rose up again last year, and is now over the MPA for WIn Shares and VORP, which he was not the year before.,  Notably, he is also a four-time Second Team All-Defensive Player, but there is still a lot of work left to do.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #26, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #19.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.0 (+1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 69.2 (-0.8)
  • Elite Period VORP 30.0 (-2.4)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Butler won an Olympic Gold Medal with the United States and played three years at Marquette.

Kevin Love was brought in to be the third piece of the Cavaliers with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, and it resulted in an NBA Championship.  His All-Star days are likely behind him, and there is a good chance that there won't be a significant addition to his resume. He might have enough now, but the career narrative on Love is not as strong as it used to be.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #18, Pre-2020-21 Rank #17.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.5 (+1.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 60.3 (-9.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.3 (-11.1)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Love also took UCLA to a Final Four, and he was a First Team All-American and Pac-10 Player of the Year. Representing the United States, Love was a Gold Medalist in both the Olympics and World Cup

We said last year that Rudy Gobert is primed for one of the biggest jumps on this list and only fellow European, Nikola Jokic, had a bigger one.  The French Center has only been an All-Star twice, but last year he earned his third Defensive Player of the Year Award, and his fourth All-NBA Selection.  Gobert also rocketed past the Elite Period in Win Shares.  In 2021, he also won a Silver Medal with France in the Olympics, and that only adds to his growing resume.  If the Jazz win a Title, and they are very good, Gobert could become the second Frenchman (we assume Tony Parker will enter first) to make the Hall.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #36, Pre-2020-21 Rank #33.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.0 (+0.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 74.5 (+4.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.1 (-8.3)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Gobert has won an Olympic Silver Medal, two World Cup Bronze Medals, and one EuroBasket Bronze for France.

Aldridge has been an All-Star seven times, but those days are in his past.  Last year, Aldridge joined the Nets to chase a title, only to retire due to a heart issue.  Aldrige did however get cleared, and he joins a stacked Brooklyn team looking for their first NBA Title.  He won't win another individual award, but a title for Aldridge bolsters his chances.  This could be the year.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #17, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #18.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.9 (+0.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 58.6 (-11.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 14.4 (-18)
  • All-Star Selections 7 (-1.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 7 (-4.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Aldridge was also a Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year at Texas.

We will state that the elite period of Kyle Lowry is over, and if it is, he has six All-Stars on his resume and an NBA Title.  With the raised thresholds, Lowry no longer exceeds any of these plateaus but the respect that he has around the league has grown.  Lowry leaves the Raptors for Miami, a contender to win it all.  If Miami does or at least makes the Finals, Lowry, a player who never seems to be considered as a Hall contender will add another necessary line to his resume.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #20, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #20.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 62.9 (-7.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 31.0 (-1.4)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Lowry played at Villanova in college, and he also won a Gold Medal for Team U.S.A. at the 2016 Olympics

Oh boy.  Derrick Rose is in grave danger of becoming the first former NBA MVP not to make the Hall of Fame.   If you look at his overall numbers, Rose probably shouldn't be inducted.  Over the last few years, Rose has settled in on a strong bench role, capable of exploding with big numbers in any game.  Now with the Knicks, his chance for the Hall relies on compiling stats, his MVP and sentiment.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #27. Pre-2021-22 Rank: #22.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.3 (-3.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 31.4 (-38.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 10.6 (-21.8)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Rose played for Memphis where he was a Third Team All-American and took the Tigers to NCAA Championship Game. He also won a Gold Medal at the Olympics and the World Cup for the United States.

Marc Gasol made history as the second player to win the NBA Championship and FIBA World Cup in the same calendar year.  The Spaniard is not the dominating presence he once was, but his International accomplishments have some pundits painting him as a lock. While he does have that Defensive Player of the Year on his ledger, he begins the season as a Free Agent, but could easily find work as a bench player on a contender.  That could be the key for Gasol, as he needs something else to hang his hat on.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #21, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #21.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.9 (-2.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 55.5 (-14.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 25.2 (-7.2)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Representing Spain, Gasol has won two Olympic Silver Medals, two World Cup Gold Medals, and in EuroBasket, he has two Golds, one Silver, and two Bronze Medals

Thompson missed all of the last two seasons on the IR due to a torn ACL, which obviously negates him from adding much to his Hall of Fame cause.  He should return this year, but what kind of player will he be?  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #22, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #23.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 16.4 (-5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 46.8 (-23.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.3 (-21.1)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 2 (-9.9)
  • NBA Championships 3 (+1.6)
  • Additional Notes Thompson played for Washington State and was a two-time All-Pac-10 Selection. Representing the United States, he was a Gold Medalist in both the Olympics and World Cup

Rondo's Elite Period is well in his rear-view mirror, but he was already an NBA Champion when he was with the Celtics.   It also needs to be reiterated how much he helped them win that title.  Rondo won another with the Lakers two years go, which helps his cause, albeit in a secondary capacity.   It also should be discussed that in terms of traditional stats, Rondo is a three-time Assists Champion and one-time Steals Champion, but he does not scream Springfield.  A third title, even if he is deep on the bench could put him over.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #24, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #24

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.6 (-3.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 42.6 (-27.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.1 (-15.3)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Rondo played two years at the University of Kentucky

Already a three-time NBA Champion, Draymond Green's key to the Hall of Fame will be his defensive acumen.  He is already a former Defensive Player of the Year and has been named to three First Team and two Second Team All-Defensive rosters.  Green’s Elite Period numbers rose slightly last year, but he needs a more significant statistical year to get into the Hall of Fame hunt.  That second Gold Medal won for the United States didn't hurt.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #25, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #26.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 15.7 (-5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 43.9 (-26.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 19.9 (-12.5)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 3 (+1.6)
  • Additional Notes Green played for Michigan State and was a Consensus All-American, NABC National Player of the Year, and Big Ten Player of the Year. He also won a Gold Medal in the Olympics for the United States twice.

Horford joins the Boston Celtics after one year in Oklahoma City.  His All-Star Selections may be behind him, but an NBA Championship could change the narrative, and it is not impossible for the Celtics to win it all in 2022.  His Elite Period stats are hampered by two seasons where he missed a ton of games, but he is an excellent player who is still compiling good numbers.  That might have to be his route to Springfield.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #23.  Pre-2020-21 Rank: #25.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.2 (-1.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 51.9 (-18.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.5 (-10.9)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Horford won two NCAA titles at Florida and was a Third-Team All-American. He plays Internationally for the Dominican Republic and won a FIBA Bronze Medal

When Andre Iguodala was asked if he was a Hall of Famer, he said no. The odds are against him, but he is in the conversation more than he gives himself credit for.  While his Elite Period is in the past, his VORP was actually above the average before it was raised this year by Bryant, Duncan and Garnett.  The three Titles, the two Gold Medals, but mostly that Finals MVP will always keep Iguodala’s name in the Hall of Fame conversation.  If he compiles and leads over the next few seasons, he could sneak in. Pre 2019-20 Rank: #30, Pre-2020-21 Rank: 27

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.7 (-3.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 52.8 (-17.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 28.4 (-4)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 3 (+1.6)
  • Additional Notes Iguodala played at the University of Arizona and was a First Team Pac-10 Selection. He would also win a Gold Medal for the United States in the Olympics and in the FIBA World Cup

We made a huge error in forgetting DeRozan in our inaugural rank two years ago, as he certainly has a resume worthy of discussing on a list like this. DeRozan is a very good player, but that is the increasing narrative on him, especially after the Spurs treaded water with him, and his former team, Toronto, won the title on the strength of trading him for Kawhi Leonard.  Narratives can be stronger than statistics.  If his Elite Period is over, and we expect that it is, this is a make-or-break year as he joins Detroit. Pre 2020-21 Rank: #28

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.5 (-0.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 54.8 (-15.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.5 (-14.9)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes DeRozan played at USC in college, and he also won a Gold Medal for Team U.S.A. at the 2016 Olympics and the 2014 World Cup

The Elite Period of Jordan's career is over, nevertheless, his advanced stats are much better than his lone All-Star Game Selection reflect.  Still, Jordan will need a lot of help for Springfield enshrinement, and it would have to come in the form of multiple titles, which is marginally possible if he stays wih his new team, the Los Angeles Lakers.. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #29, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #30.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 69.9 (-0.099999999999994)
  • Elite Period VORP 22.2 (-10.2)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Jordan played at Texas A&M and would win a Gold Medal for the United States in the Olympics

After seven years of NBA purgatory in Charlotte, Kemba Walker took over the Point in Boston, and got to enjoy life in the playoffs.  WHile that was nice, it was a tad underwhelming, and he is now with his third team, the New York Knicks.  Walker's Elite Period numbers barely moved, and it looks like he might be poised for a major statistical dropoff.  If that is true, there is not likely to be much added to his resume.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #34, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #32

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.2 (-1.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 47.5 (-22.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 23.7 (-8.7)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Walker played at UConn where he took the Huskies to a 2011 Tournament Win. He would also win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award and was a First Team All-American that year

While we know that Embiid had only played five seasons in the NBA, his advanced metrics are very strong, and accumulatively getting stronger.  In terms of traditional numbers, he has been a 10-20 player the last three seasons, and is a three-time Second Team All-NBA Selection.  We predict a monster jump for Embiid this year.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #49, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #39

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.9 (+4.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 31.6 (-38.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.8 (-19.6)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 6 (-5.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Embiid played one year at the University of Kansas and was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

DeMarcus Cousins hasn't had a lot of luck in his career, especially in the last 36 months.  After being injured for much of his brief run in New Orleans, the former Sacramento King signed for a one-year contract with Golden State in a chase for a title, but it didn't go well.  "Boogie" didn't play for much of the season after recovering from an Achilles injury, and when he returned, he wasn't the same All-Star player.  To make matters worse, the Warriors didn't win the NBA Title.  He joined the Los Angeles Lakers last year but a torn ACL kept him out the entire season, and he never he played a game for them.  He then became a Houston Rocketm amd finished off with the Clippers, but it is possible that his NBA career might be over.  If so, he hasn't done enough for the Hall.  Pre-2019-20 Rank #33, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #29..

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.7 (+2.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 40.6 (-29.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.0 (-11.4)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Cousins was a Consensus Second Team All-American and was the SEC Rookie of the Year at the University of Kentucky. He also won a Gold Medal in both the Olympics and FIBA World Cup for the United States

With Towns, it feels so familiar in that we have a star Timberwolves player who has to be getting frustrated playing for a team that is going nowhere.  We know this is a player with only six seasons under his belt, so clearly, his Elite Period stats are going to grow, and his PER is already over the threshold. Already a two-time All-Star, this is a player that we are going to be watching intensely for the next ten years, but he needs a change of scenery.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #41, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #36.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.9 (+3.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 55.8 (-14.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 23.8 (-8.6)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Towns was a Consensus Second Team All-American at the University of Kentucky, and he plays Internationally for the Dominican Republic. He won the Gold once in Centrobasket

Millsap may not have the credentials for the Basketball Hall of Fame, but that would change if he has a great season and his new team, Brooklyn wins the Championship, The Nets are deep and talented and are favorites to come out of the East.  This has to happen as Millsap is in obvious decline and a bench player at this stage.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #32, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #34.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.0 (-1.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 54.7 (-15.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.6 (-7.8)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Millsap played three years at Louisiana Tech where he was twice a First Team All-WAC Selection and is a three-time NCAA Rebounding Champion

The narrative on John Wall has taken a pounding over the last few years.  Wall lost the entire 2019-20 Season due to a torn ACL and he was surprisingly traded to the Houston Rockets before last season.   While Wall had decent traditional numbers last year, his advanced metrics were poor and his Elite Period looks to be over.  Pre-2019-20 Ran: #28. Pre-2020-21 Rank: #35

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.1 (-1.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 41.0 (-29)
  • Elite Period VORP 20.4 (-12)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Wall played at the University of Kentucky and won the Adolph Rupp Trophy, the SEC Player of the Year and was a First Team All-American

Beal averaged over 30 Points per Game the last two years, and almost won the scoring title, but his overall Elite Period advanced metrics are not Hall of Fame worthy.  He now enters his tenth NBA year, and while he has been good, he needs to have a transcendent type season to enter the conversation.  Pre-2019-20 Season: #44, Pre-2020-21 Season: #41.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.4 (-2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 40.4 (-29.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.9 (-14.5)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Beal played one year at the University of Florida and was a First Team All-SEC Selection

Drummond likely has peaked, and it will be interesting to see what type of input he has in his first year in Philadelphia.  Despite being a four-time Rebounding Champion and two-time All-Star, Drummond has never been considered an upper-tier player, and if his Elite Period is over, his Hall of Fame path relies on titles and stat-padding. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #37, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #38.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.1 (+0.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 56.4 (-13.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 15.9 (-16.5)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Drummond played one year at the University of Connecticut and won a Gold Medal for the United States in the FIBA World Cup

It is worth noting that he is one (as of this writing) of 88 Players who have over 100 Win Shares and is higher than Carmelo Anthony and Andre Iguodala. Throw in the three Gold Medals, Defensive Player of the Year and qn NBA Championship, is he a dark horse contender for Springfield?  As he is a Free Agent, and has been for a year, probably not. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #31, Pre-2020-21 Rank #40.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.5 (-3.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 49.7 (-20.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.9 (-18.5)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Chandler won a Gold Medal the FIBA World Cup. the Olympics and FIBA Americas Championship for the United States.

Khris Middleton has been to two All-Star Games, but the second banana to Giannis Antetokounmpo needs a title to enter any Hall of Fame conversation.  Not only did he get that in 2021, he also won an Olympic Gold Medal.  Pre-2020-21 Rank #47. 

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.3 (-4.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 41.6 (-28.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.5 (-19.9)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Middleton played his college ball at Texas A&M and was a Second Team Big-12 Selection, and won a Gold Medal for the United States at the Olympics.

After 12 seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies, Mike Conley is entering his third year with Utah.  Last season, Conley finally made his first All-Star Game, though his Elite Perd metric era did not change.  Frankly, it felt a bit like a lifetime achievement award, but one we were happy to see him obtain.  At age 34, Conley will not have the time left to do the work that gets him into Springfield.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #38, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #42.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.8 (-2.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 53.2 (-16.8)
  • Elite Period VORP 20.9 (-11.5)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Conley played one year at Ohio State where he helped them reach the NCAA Championship Game

Doncic enters our top 50, and he will likely jump up double digits next year barring injury.  The Slovenian is already a two-time First Team All-Pro, and should have many more coming.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.0 (+2.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 21.4 (-48.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.8 (-18.6)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 6 (-5.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Doncic represents Slovenia Internationally and won the EuroBasket in 2017.

Serge Ibaka won his first NBA Championship with the Raptors two years ago, and he is still a very good player.  Having never been an All-Star hurts Ibaka’s chances, but he is a three-time First Team All-Defensive Selection.  Now a Clipper, a second NBA Title would be colossal.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #40, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #43

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.5 (-3.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 49.0 (-21)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.2 (-20.2)
  • All-Star Selections 0 (-8.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Ibaka, who was born in Congo, plays for Spain. He has won a Silver Medal at the Olympics and a Gold Medal in EuroBasket

Injuries have piled up quickly for I.T., but he has time to rebound if his health permits, though it isn’t looking good.  That moment where he was a star Celtic seems like a lifetime ago. It would not surprise us, if he is unranked or even retired next year.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #43, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #44.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.3 (-1.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 45.3 (-24.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.9 (-18.5)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 2 (-9.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Thomas played at the University of Washington for three years, and he was a two-time First Team Pac-10 Selection

Lopez should have been ranked last year, though it would not have been much higher than what he is this year.  Last year's NBA Championship with Milwaukee helps put him on the very fringe of discussion.  A second Title in 2022, would help even more..   Pre-2020-21 Rank: #45

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.8 (+0.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 35.9 (-34.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.8 (-20.6)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Lopez played two years at Stanford where he was a Third Team All-American and First Team All-Pac-10 player

Hayward is entering his second season with Charlotte, but he hasn't come close to doing what he did in his last few seasons with Utah.  Hayward was missed his entire first season in Boston due to a broken leg, but his return last year yielded just an average campaign. He needs to do much better this year to have any realistic Hall of Fame chance, but a ring or two won’t hurt.  Playing for Charlotte will make that difficult. Pre 2019-20 Rank: #48, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #46.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 16.9 (-4.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 32.6 (-37.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.4 (-20)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Hayward took Butler to the NCAA Final and was a former Horizon League MVP.

In his 12th season in the NBA, and first in Milwaukee, Holiday helped lead the Bucks win the Championship.  Holiday, also made history by winning Olympic Gold in the same year.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.5 (-2.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 33.5 (-36.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 15.7 (-16.7)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Holiday is an Olympic Gold Medalist with the United States, and he played a year at UCLA.

Wow.  Starting off with the good, Simmons was an All-Star the last three years, and was a First Team All-Defensive Selection the last two years.  The bad is that he failed miserably in the 2021 Playoffs, and the Sixers and Simmons no longer want to be associated with each other.  There is a lot of rehab that his reputation requires.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 30.4 (-39.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.4 (-19)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Simmons played for one year at UCLA and has competed Internationally for Australia.

Dragic is one of the most underrated players in Basketball hstory.  There are more accomplishments left in his tank, and he is coming off a good year with Miami, albeit one where Dragic was used off of the bench.  He now joins Toronto, but his time is running out.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #45, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #48

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.1 (-3.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 25.5 (-44.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 15.7 (-16.7)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Dragic plays internationally for Slovenia and would win Gold in the 2017 EuroBasket

Oladipo only played 33 Games last year, and it was with three different teams (Indiana, Houston & Miami).  His last All-Star was only three years ago, but it feels lijke so much longer  Pre-2019-20 Rank #47, Pre-2020-21 Rank #49

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 16.5 (-4.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 24.3 (-45.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 10.8 (-21.6)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Oladipo played three years at the University of Indiana. In his last year, he won the Adolph Rupp Award, the Big 10 Player of the Year, was a Consensus First Team All-American and was the Co-Defensive Player of the Year