50 Active Potential Basketball Hall of Famers

Our Basketball Hall of Fame monitor for Basketball looks at the following criteria:

The most significant factor we look at is how each active player measures up to the last fourteen players who were chosen.  To be specific, we are focusing only on players who were voted through the conventional means and not through any special committee. What this means that no Direct-Elect Committee Inductees will part of the comparisons.  The Direct-Elect categories are Contributors, Early African-American Pioneers, International, and Veterans.  Please note that at present, we are not ranking women, but may make a separate list in the future.  

Inspired by Jay Jaffe’s JAWS statistic that looks at the best seven-year stretch of a baseball player according to bWAR, we are doing the same with current basketball players.  Specifically, we compiled the average PER, Win Shares and VORP for each of the past Hall of Famers based on their best seven-year period.  The additional thinking behind this is that in Basketball, there is an additional focus on periods of greatness as opposed to sports like Baseball, where compiling statistics is more glorified.

As opposed to what we have done with Football, we are not isolating these metrics by their position as the PER, Win Shares and VORP considers everything.

We are also looking at the amount of All-Star Games and All-NBA Selections.  In terms of the All-NBA and All-Defensive Selections, we are compiling in a weighted fashion.  In terms of Third Team All-NBA Selections, one point will be assigned, Second Team All-NBA Selections will have two points will be granted, and First Team All-NBA Selections will have three points.  

So, let’s continue!

We have made one huge change, as we added the members from the 2022 Class, and focused exclusively on the last five years.  This has generated a pool of 17, players, who we are looking at.

The 17 players from the last five induction classes who we are using for the composite averages are:

Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Maurice Cheeks, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Manu GinobiliTim Hardaway, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Sidney Moncreif, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Jack Sikma, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber and Paul Westphal

With the addition of Ginobili and Hardaway, the Averages have all gone down, but remember that a year ago, they exploded with Garnett, Bryant and Duncan joining.

Here are the averages:

Based on their elite seven-year stretch the average PER of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 21.4.  In our previous tally, it was 22.5.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average Win Shares of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 70.0.  In our previous tally, it was 70.9.

Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average VORP of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 32.4, slightly up from 32.0 last year.

With All-Star and All-NBA Selections, we look at the entire career of the player.  

The average All-Star Selections of the last 16 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 8.3, down from 9.4 last year.

The average All-NBA Selections (based on the pointed average of one for a Third Team, two for a Second Team and three for a First Team Selection) is 11.9, again significantly lower than the 14.6 from last year.

We are also adding NBA Championships. Often,  players in this team sport more than any other (except for NFL Quarterbacks) are judged by the number of rings they have.  Perhaps, that shouldn't be as regarded as it is, considering the average amount of titles of our last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is a little more than 1.  Specifically, it is 1.4, which is way higher than the .79 it was two years ago.

Wrapping this up in a bow, the six variables we are looking at Elite Period PER, Elite Period Win Shares, Elite Period VORP, All-Star Games, Weighted All-Pro Selections, NBA Championships.

This is all simple enough, right?

A few more notes before we begin:

As the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame recognizes College and International accomplishments, we will mention those if any are significant. Those add-ons can (and have) pushed a bubble candidate to immortality in Springfield.

This list is based on the beginning of the 2020-21 Season:

Please remember that this list is based on accomplishments and not necessarily future potential.  Think of it as where they stand if their career ended today.

Any asterisk in front of a statistic indicates that this metric exceeds the average.

**In front of a player means that the seven-year elite period was up to last season and could extend, thus potentially increasing their averages.

***In front of a player means that he has yet to play seven seasons.

Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Maurice Cheeks, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Manu Ginobili, Tim Hardaway, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Sidney Moncreif, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Jack Sikma, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber, and Paul Westphal

 

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.4
  • Elite Period Win Shares 70.0
  • Elite Period VORP 32.4
  • All-Star Selections 8.3
  • All-Pro Selections 11.9
  • NBA Championships 1.4

James has become every bit of the Hall of Fame lock that pundits said he would be when he was drafted 1st Overall in 2003.  James doesn't just exceed our six criteria; he destroys them. Already a bona fide Hall of Famer years ago, the only question left is where he finishes in terms of the greatest of all time.  Three years ago, under the rigors of the COVID-19 bubble, James took the Lakers to a championship, earning his fourth, and leading three teams to the promised land. He isn’t done yet, but is slowing down   Pre-2019-20 Rank: #1, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #1, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #1

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 29.7 (+8.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 114.3 (+44.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 61.9 (+29.5)
  • All-Star Selections 18 (+9.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 45 (+33.1)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes James has also won 2 Olympic Gold, 1 Olympic Bronze, 1 FIBA World Bronze, 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States

As each year goes by, Kevin Durant becomes less and less media-friendly, but does it matter?  It shouldn't, as his legend is officially secured.  Now that his run with the Golden State Warriors is officially over, he did exactly what he set out to do in winning a championship, which he won two. The former MVP enters his third season with Brooklyn, with the first one being on the disabled list, and the second won seeing most of his teammates on the DL.  The third was a disappointment, and he sought a trade afterward.  Durant and the Nets mended their fences, but are not favorites anymore to escape the East.  Notably, Durant won another Gold Medal and is now the highest scorer ever in Olympic history.  Durant is a first-ballot Hall of Famer already.  Pre-2020-21 Rank: #2, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #2, Pre 2021-22 Rank: #2.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.1 (+5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 97.7 (+27.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 38.6 (+6.2)
  • All-Star Selections 12 (+3.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 26 (+14.1)
  • NBA Championships 2 (+0.6)
  • Additional Notes Durant also has won 3 Olympic Golds, 1 World Championship Gold for the United States. He was a Consensus National College Player of the Year, All-American, and Big 12 Player of the Year at Texas

Moving into #3 is Steph Curry who has two MVPs and four NBA Championships, with the last one being especially sweet as the band was back together.  If he wasn't already Curry is now one of the official faces of the NBA, and there are few players in any sport who boast the accolades that he has.  Still young enough to win more trophies Curry already holds the all-time record for Three Point Field Goals, and if the ball is in hand, where can't he drain it from?,   Pre-2019-20 Rank: #5, Pre-2020-21 Rank #5, Pre-2021-22 Rank #5

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.8 (+4.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 89.4 (+19.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 45.4 (+13)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes Curry also has 2 World Cup Gold Medals for the United States and was a Consensus First Team All-American at Davidson

Chris Paul is already a Hall of Fame player, but he is missing an NBA Championship. Three years ago, in what was his only year in Oklahoma City, he rebounded with his first All-Star year after a three-year drought, and the Point Guard was also named a Second Team All-Star.  Paul was traded to Phoenix last year and not only he was still productive and leading by example, but he also led the Suns to their first Finals in decades.  Paul also was an All-Star again and Second Team All-NBA for the second year in a row, and he added a Third Team last year.  The accolades keep coming for Paul.  That elusive NBA Title could still happen.  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #3, Pre 2020-21 Rank #4, Pre 2021-22 Rank: #3.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 26.6 (+5.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 96.1 (+26.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 43.9 (+11.5)
  • All-Star Selections 11 (+2.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 22 (+10.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Paul also has won 2 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Bronze for the United States, and was a Consensus All-American and First Team All-ACC player at Wake Forest

James Harden is a three-time scoring champion and a former MVP, but he enters this season in unfamiliar territory, as there is no doubt that he is not the top scoring option on his team; that is Joel Embiid.  Harden, who forced his way out of another team last year (Brooklyn) and he had a poor playoff, but "The Beard" already has passed the Hall of Fame bar regardless of what the narrative on him might be.  If Philadelphia wins it all in 2023 (and they could), and if Harden returns to his former self (unlikely), how do we then perceive him?  We think he will enter on the first ballot anyway, and the only question will be how loud are the detractors.  Pre-2019-20 Rank #4, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #3, Pre-2021-22 Rank: 4

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.4 (+6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 101.2 (+31.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 52.5 (+20.1)
  • All-Star Selections 10 (+1.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Harden also has won 1 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Gold for the United States, and was a First Team All-American and Pac-10 Player of the Year at Arizona State

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a two-time MVP and he still might improve.  He has only played nine seasons; and as his third year was just average, his Elite Period numbers are likely to jump, and they did last year, as he is now over the MPA in All-NBA Selections, VORP,  Win Shares, and All-Pros. There has never been a two-time MVP that never made the Hall of Fame, and going into last season, the only blemish on his record was the lack of an NBA Championship.  That changed two years ago, with the Bucks winning it all, Antetokounmpo has done everything you need for Springfield immortality.  Amazingly, he is still well under 30 and is probably a Hall of Famer right now.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #14, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #12,  Pre-2021-22 Rank :#7

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.5 (+6.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 80.1 (+10.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 42.2 (+9.8)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 16 (+4.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Antetokounmpo has represented Greece in two World Cups

Let's be blunt.  Russell Westbrook's first season with the Los Angeles Lakers was a disaster, and he was considered the scapegoat for most of it.  Saying that, does t erase what he accomplished before?  Let's remember that Westbrook was the master of the Triple-Double, a former MVP, a two-time Scoring Champion, a nine-time  All-NBA Selection, a three-time Assists Champion and more recently, selected to the NBA 75th Anniversary Team.  That latter honor alone should be enough to place Westbrook into the Hall on the first ballot, regardless of what happens from here.  Saying that the Lakers were a horrendous fit for Westbrook, and we can't see why it will be better this year.  Could this destroy his narrative?  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #6. Pre-2020-21 Rank: #6, Pre-2021-22 Season Rank: #6

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 26.0 (+4.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 71.5 (+1.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 49.4 (+17)
  • All-Star Selections 9 (+0.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Westbrook also has won 1 Olympic Gold and 1 FIBA World Gold with the United States. He would play two years at UCLA and was once the Pac-10 Defensive Player of the Year.

There is no player in NBA history who won the MVP who did not make it to the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame.  Nikola Jokic has now won it twice.  Also, a three-time First Team All-NBA Selection, Jokic has been the top dog in the league over the last 24 months, and while there are no NBA Championships on his resume, you need a lot more than one top player to win it all these days, and Jokic does not have a compliment on the Nuggets.  He enters this year as a strong candidate to threepeat as MVP.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #42, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #31, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #13

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.1 (+5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 79.5 (+9.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 44 (+11.6)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 11 (-0.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Jokic plays Internationally for Serbia and has won a Silver Medal in the Olympics

Howard falls short on the Elite Period VORP, but this was a player who at one time was considered the best Center in the NBA and was also, a three-time Defensive Player of the Year.  Howard was considered a Hall of Fame lock eight years ago, but since then he has bounced around the league and it also doesn't help that a plethora of former teammates have said they were happier without him.  That narrative went away when he performed well in a reserve role with the Los Angeles Lakers, and was an asset in their championship win. Howard begins this year as a Free Agent, and it is possible that we have seen the last of him on the hard court..  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #7, Pre-2020-21 Rank #7, Pre 2021-22 Rank #8.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.9 (+2.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 71.6 (+1.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 25.6 (-6.8)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 19 (+7.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Howard also has won 1 Olympic Gold, 1 FIBA World Bronze and 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States.

Everybody has known for years that Anthony Davis is a phenomenal player, but he never had anyone close to his level to play at his side.  That was until he joined the Los Angeles Lakers and suited up next to LeBron James.  He is entering his second year as a Laker, and in his first, his desire to leave New Orleans proved accurate as he won the NBA Title with LeBron.  Davis could easily win more, and his elite period metrics can still increase, though his injury-plagued 2020-21 might prevent this.  Notably, he exceeded the MPA in All-Star Games two years ago, but injuries seem to be piling up.  He will need to be healthy and win another title to remain on the right side of the HOF debate (if you think that is where he is).  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #11, Pre 2020-21 Rank #8, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #9.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 28.1 (+6.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 77.0 (+7)
  • Elite Period VORP 36.0 (+3.6)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 12 (+0.1)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Davis has also has won 1 Olympic Gold and 1 FIBA World Cup playing for the United States. At the University of Kentucky, he would lead the Wildcats to a National Championship. He would also win the Final Four MVP, was a Consensus First Team All-American, Consensus MVP and the Defensive Player of the Year.

Leonard won two NBA Championships with two different teams (San Antonio & Toronto) and was the MVP in both Finals.  That fact alone makes him a Hall of Famer in many eyes. He falls below the Elite Period Win Shares but has now passed that in VORP.  He is still in his elite period, so Leonard could rise the WIn Shares over the MPA.  If he leads the Los Angeles Clippers to a championship, it will never matter what stats he posts after.  Pre 2019-20 Rank: #13, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #11, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #10.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 25.8 (+4.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 63.8 (-6.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 32.2 (-0.2)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 13 (+1.1)
  • NBA Championships 2 (+0.6)
  • Additional Notes Leonard was also a Second Team All-American at San Diego State

Lillard is not discussed much in terms of the Basketball Hall of Fame, but small-market Portland has one of the best players that few people talk about. Lillard is now a six-time All-NBA player, and he is past all of the All-Elite thresholds, except for Titles and All-Star Games.  If you don’t watch the Trail Blazers, you are missing out, as he is one of the best basketball players in the game, and after 2021, he added an Olympic Gold Medal.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #19, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #13, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #11.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.2 (+2.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 76.9 (+6.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 36.9 (+4.5)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 12 (+0.1)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Lillard won Olympic Gold with the United States once, and played at Weber State and was a two-time Big Sky Player of the Year.

Carmelo Anthony waited for what had to feel like forever until he was picked up by the Portland Trail Blazers, but he proved he still has something to offer, and he was resigned by Rip City afterward.   Melos is now in his second year with LeBron to chase that elusive NBA ring.  Anthony only makes one of the above six thresholds, but the common belief is that he is a Hall of Fame worthy player at this moment.  For those who say he never won an NBA Title (which you can see that many haven’t), Melo is a three-time Gold Medalist and NCAA Champion.   We have to reiterate that those accolades matter in terms of a Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame selection.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #8, Pre-2020-21 Rank #10, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #12.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.4 (+1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 51.5 (-18.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.5 (-14.9)
  • All-Star Selections 10 (+1.7)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Anthony has also has won 3 Olympic Golds and 1 Olympic Bronze, 1 FIBA World Bronze and 1 FIBA Americas Gold for the United States. He is also an NCAA Champion, Final Four MVP and Consensus Second Team All-American at Syracuse

If we look at statistics and the MPA< Kyrie is there.  He is a multi-time All-Star, and has been an All-NBA Selection.  He has the Championship.  He has the ability (and still does) to take over a game and be the best player on the court regardless of the competition.  What holds Irving back the most is the perception that surrounds him that he is a selfish player, stemming not only from his refusal to get vaccinated, the way he left Boston and his desire to leave LeBron.  Kyrie is a very polarizing individual and one who marches to his own drum, and his convictions have cost him millions of dollars, and could Hall of Fame voters hold all of this against him?  They could, and he had to be a champion again for them to keep him out.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #15, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #14, Pre-2021-22 Rank #14.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.2 (+0.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 52.6 (-17.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.1 (-8.3)
  • All-Star Selections 8 (-0.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Irving also played one year for Duke and has won an Olympic Gold and World Cup Gold Medal for the United States.

George would have the best year in the second of two years in OKC. Joining the Los Angeles Clippers two years ago and joining his friend, Kawhi Leonard, should have proved fruitful for George, but it has not yet done much for George in terms of finger jewelry as the Clippers have yet to make the FInals. Nevertheless, George is still young and the Clippers are again top contenders.  An NBA Championship, even as the “number two” would be colossal for George, though he is now over the Elite Period in VORP.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #12, Pre 2020-21 Rank #15, Pre-2021-22 Rank #15.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.1 (-1.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 66.9 (-3.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 32.9 (+0.5)
  • All-Star Selections 7 (-1.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes George also has won 1 Olympic Gold Medal with the United States. He also played two years at Fresno State.

Rudy Gobert continues to climb this list, and we have been in awe of his defensive skills for a long time.  This is a crossroads year for the Frenchman, as he was traded from Utah to Minnesota, and in Karl-Anthony Towns, he is now one half of an intimitading duo in the paint.  If the three-time Defensive Player of the Year adds to his resume, and helps take Minnesota deep into the playoffs (a place the have never been before), we could see obert eventually follow Tony Parker (we suspect he will get in shortly) into Springfield.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #36, Pre-2020-21 Rank #33, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #19.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.5 (+1.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 76.9 (+6.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.4 (-8)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Gobert has won an Olympic Silver Medal, two World Cup Bronze Medals, and one EuroBasket Bronze for France.

Jimmy Butler has had a tumultuous career but after his first year in Miami where he took the Heat to the Finals, his stock has skyrocketed.  His Elite Period metrics rhave been lagging, and it is possible that it is over but Butler is still an explosive player, and the star of a team that could win it all in 2023.,  Notably, he is also a four-time Second Team All-Defensive Player, but there is still a lot of work left to do.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #26, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #19, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #17.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.0 (+1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 69.2 (-0.8)
  • Elite Period VORP 30.0 (-2.4)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Butler won an Olympic Gold Medal with the United States and played three years at Marquette.

The elite period of Blake Griffin is well over, and he is a shell of the exciting player he was with the Clippers.  Griffin is still a six-time All-Star, and a multi-time All-NBA player, but the failure to take Los Angeles deep into the playoffs will haunt his Hall chances.  Griffin is desperate for a title, and if assists his new team, Boston, in some capacity, it could start a Hall of Fame buzz around him.  If he doesn't,  he might be on the wrong side of the fence.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #16, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #16, Pre-3021-22 Rank: #16.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.8 (+1.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 62.4 (-7.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 25.6 (-6.8)
  • All-Star Selections 6 (-2.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Griffin was also a National College Player of the Year, First Team All-American and Big 12 Player of the Year at Oklahoma.

After missing the 2019-20 and 2020-21 Seasons due to injury, Thompson came back in the middle of last year, and the "Splash Brothers" were reunited..and it felt so good!   Thompson's return was the necessary tonic for Golden State to capture their fourth NBA Title in the last ten years, and this vaulted Thompson up the list. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #22, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #23, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #24

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 16.4 (-5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 46.8 (-23.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.3 (-21.1)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 2 (-9.9)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes Thompson played for Washington State and was a two-time All-Pac-10 Selection. Representing the United States, he was a Gold Medalist in both the Olympics and World Cup

Kevin Love was brought in to be the third piece of the Cavaliers with LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, and it resulted in an NBA Championship.  His All-Star days are well behind him, but he found a new life last season as a bench player and was in contention for the Sixth Man of the Year Award.  If Cleveland improves, and Love plays a huge part in that, discussions for the Hall will be had.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #18, Pre-2020-21 Rank #17, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #19.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.5 (+1.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 60.3 (-9.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.3 (-11.1)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Love also took UCLA to a Final Four, and he was a First Team All-American and Pac-10 Player of the Year. Representing the United States, Love was a Gold Medalist in both the Olympics and World Cup

While we know that Embiid had only played six seasons in the NBA, his advanced metrics are very strong, and accumulatively getting stronger.  In terms of traditional numbers, he has been a 10-20 player the last five seasons and is a four-time Second Team All-NBA Selection.  We predict a monster jump for Embiid this year, just like he did last.  With the Sixers as an NBA contender, Embiid could see a Title and an MVP in 2023.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #49, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #39, Pre-2021022 Rank: #32.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 27.1 (+5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 43.7 (-26.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 20.4 (-12)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 8 (-3.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Embiid played one year at the University of Kansas and was the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.

We will state that the elite period of Kyle Lowry is over, and if it is, he has six All-Stars on his resume and an NBA Title.  Lowry is still however a good Point Guard with a unique skill set and if he helps Miami win a Title, did he then do enough?  He is closer than you think..  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #20, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #20, 2021-22 Pre-Season Rank #21.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 62.9 (-7.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 31.0 (-1.4)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Lowry played at Villanova in college, and he also won a Gold Medal for Team U.S.A. at the 2016 Olympics

We will argue that the fourth Dubs Title helps Draymond Green more than it does anyone else, as even though Green is a  four-time All-Star,, and a seven-time All-Dfeensive Selection, his overall advanced metrics fall short and they probably won't meet the MPA.  That being said, Green was a huge part of Golden State's success, and the push for him will be strong. That second Gold Medal won for the United States didn't hurt.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #25, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #26, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #26

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 15.7 (-5.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 43.9 (-26.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 19.9 (-12.5)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes Green played for Michigan State and was a Consensus All-American, NABC National Player of the Year, and Big Ten Player of the Year. He also won a Gold Medal in the Olympics for the United States twice.

This was a comeback year for DeRozan, who we thought would not see another All-Star.  He had his fifth All-Star last season and was instrumental in Chicago's return to the playoffs.  That year was great, but he has to keep it up for a few more years . Pre 2020-21 Rank: #28, Pre-2021-22 Rank:: #29.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.8 (+0.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 52.8 (-17.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 19.2 (-13.2)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes DeRozan played at USC in college, and he also won a Gold Medal for Team U.S.A. at the 2016 Olympics and the 2014 World Cup

Oh boy.  Derrick Rose is in grave danger of becoming the first former NBA MVP not to make the Hall of Fame.   If you look at his overall numbers, Rose probably shouldn't be inducted.  Over the last few years, Rose has settled in on a strong bench role, capable of exploding with big numbers in any game.  Now with the Knicks, his chance for the Hall relies on compiling stats, his MVP, and sentiment.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #27. Pre-2021-22 Rank: #22, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #22.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.3 (-3.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 31.4 (-38.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 10.6 (-21.8)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Rose played for Memphis where he was a Third Team All-American and took the Tigers to NCAA Championship Game. He also won a Gold Medal at the Olympics and the World Cup for the United States.

Last season could have been a turning point for Towns who had his best year in Basketball, took Minnesota to the playoffs, and now has Rudy Gobert at his side.  Towns arguably never felt like a Hall of Famer, but was that becase of his surroundings?  That is changing, and as Minnesota's future brightens, so does Towns' HOF chances..  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #41, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #36. Pre-2021-22 Rank: #34

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.7 (+3.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 66.1 (-3.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 28.3 (-4.1)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 2 (-9.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Towns was a Consensus Second Team All-American at the University of Kentucky, and he plays Internationally for the Dominican Republic. He won the Gold once in Centrobasket

Doncic can now stake a claim as one of the top five players in Basketball, and last year the Slovenian willed the Mavericks into the Western Conference Finals.  Only a four-year veteran, Doncic is now on a three-year streak of First Team All-NBA Selections, and he is a good bet to collect a fourth one this season,   2021-22 Pre-Season Rank: #42

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 24.3 (+2.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 29.0 (-41)
  • Elite Period VORP 19.8 (-12.6)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Doncic represents Slovenia Internationally and won the EuroBasket in 2017.

Horford is in his second year in Boston but his Elite Period stats are hampered by two seasons where he missed a ton of games, but he is an excellent player who is still compiling good numbers, albeit in a reserve role.  .On a contending Celtics team, Horford could use a ring to gain entry to Springfield..  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #23.  Pre-2020-21 Rank: #25, Pre-2021-21 Rank #27

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.2 (-1.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 51.9 (-18.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.5 (-10.9)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Horford won two NCAA titles at Florida and was a Third-Team All-American. He plays Internationally for the Dominican Republic and won a FIBA Bronze Medal

Rondo's Elite Period is well in his rear-view mirror, but he was already an NBA Champion when he was with the Celtics.   It also needs to be reiterated how much he helped them win that title.  Rondo won another with the Lakers two years go, which helps his cause, albeit in a secondary capacity.   It also should be discussed that in terms of traditional stats, Rondo is a three-time Assists Champion and one-time Steals Champion, but he does not scream Springfield.  A third title, even if he is deep on the bench could put him over, but for that to hapen, he has to find work, as he is currently a Free Agent.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #24, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #24, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #25

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.6 (-3.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 42.6 (-27.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.1 (-15.3)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Rondo played two years at the University of Kentucky

When Andre Iguodala was asked if he was a Hall of Famer, he said no. The odds are against him, but he is in the conversation more than he gives himself credit for.  While his Elite Period is in the past, his VORP was actually above the average before it was raised two years ago by Bryant, Duncan and Garnett.  The four Titles, the two Gold Medals, but mostly that Finals MVP will always keep Iguodala’s name in the Hall of Fame conversation.  If he compiles and leads over the next few seasons, he could sneak in. Pre 2019-20 Rank: #30, Pre-2020-21 Rank: 27, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #28

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.7 (-3.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 52.8 (-17.2)
  • Elite Period VORP 28.4 (-4)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 4 (+2.6)
  • Additional Notes Iguodala played at the University of Arizona and was a First Team Pac-10 Selection. He would also win a Gold Medal for the United States in the Olympics and in the FIBA World Cup

The Elite Period of Jordan's career is over, nevertheless, his advanced stats are much better than his lone All-Star Game Selection reflects.  Still, Jordan will need a lot of help for Springfield enshrinement, and it would have to come in the form of multiple titles, which is unlikely to happen this year with the Nuggets. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #29, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #30, Pre-2021-22 Season Rank: #30

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 69.9 (-0.099999999999994)
  • Elite Period VORP 22.2 (-10.2)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 5 (-6.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Jordan played at Texas A&M and would win a Gold Medal for the United States in the Olympics

DeMarcus Cousins hasn't had a lot of luck in his career, especially in the last 48 months.  After being injured for much of his brief run in New Orleans, the former Sacramento King signed for a one-year contract with Golden State in a chase for a title, but it didn't go well.  "Boogie" didn't play for much of the season after recovering from an Achilles injury, and when he returned, he wasn't the same All-Star player.  To make matters worse, the Warriors didn't win the NBA Title.  He joined the Los Angeles Lakers last year but a torn ACL kept him out the entire season, and he never he played a game for them.  He then became a Houston Rocket, amd finished off with the Clippers, and then the Nuggets last year,, but it is possible that his NBA career might be over.  If so, he hasn't done enough for the Hall.  Pre-2019-20 Rank #33, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #29, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #31..

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 23.7 (+2.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 40.6 (-29.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 21.0 (-11.4)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Cousins was a Consensus Second Team All-American and was the SEC Rookie of the Year at the University of Kentucky. He also won a Gold Medal in both the Olympics and FIBA World Cup for the United States

Tatum has only played five years, the last three of which earned him a trip to the All-Star Game. He broke out last season, proving that he was an elite player, and the face of the iconic Celtics franchise while earning First Team All-NBA honors and propelling Boston to the Finals.   Tatum was a member of the U.S. Team that won Olympic Gold, and this only aids his overall resume. Pre-2021-22 Rank: #50

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.8 (-2.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 35.1 (-34.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 14.8 (-17.6)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 4 (-7.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Tatum played one year at Duke and won a Gold Medal with the United States in the Olympics.

After seven years of NBA purgatory in Charlotte, Kemba Walker took over the Point in Boston, and got to enjoy life in the playoffs.  While that was nice, it was a tad underwhelming, and his run with New York was no better.  Now a Piston, and plagued by injuries, there is little left in his tank, and his resume will not be Hall of Fame worthy.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #34, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #32, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #31.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.2 (-1.2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 47.5 (-22.5)
  • Elite Period VORP 23.7 (-8.7)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Walker played at UConn where he took the Huskies to a 2011 Tournament Win. He would also win the Final Four Most Outstanding Player Award and was a First Team All-American that year

Millsap may not have the credentials for the Basketball Hall of Fame, and the only way that changes is if he wins titles.  Like others n this list, the four-time All-Star is looking for a team and is in a hired gun phase.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #32, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #34, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #35

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.0 (-1.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 54.7 (-15.3)
  • Elite Period VORP 24.6 (-7.8)
  • All-Star Selections 4 (-4.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Millsap played three years at Louisiana Tech where he was twice a First Team All-WAC Selection and is a three-time NCAA Rebounding Champion

The narrative on John Wall has taken a pounding over the last few years.  Wall lost the entire 2019-20 Season due to a torn ACL and he was surprisingly traded to the Houston Rocketswhere he was decent, but he sat out last year.  He joins the Clippers this season, but what type of player is he?  Pre-2019-20 Ran: #28. Pre-2020-21 Rank: #35, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #36

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.1 (-1.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 41.0 (-29)
  • Elite Period VORP 20.4 (-12)
  • All-Star Selections 5 (-3.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Wall played at the University of Kentucky and won the Adolph Rupp Trophy, the SEC Player of the Year and was a First Team All-American

Khris Middleton has been to three All-Star Games, but the second banana to Giannis Antetokounmpo needs titles to enter any Hall of Fame conversation.  Not only did he get that in 2021, he also won an Olympic Gold Medal.  Pre-2020-21 Rank #47, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #40.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.7 (-3.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 40.3 (-29.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.3 (-20.1)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Middleton played his college ball at Texas A&M and was a Second Team Big-12 Selection, and won a Gold Medal for the United States at the Olympics.

Booker is the highest debut on the pre-2022-23 ranking, and the flashy Guard has already been to an NBA FInal.  The bright star of the Suns was a First Team All-Star last year, is a three-time All-Star and already an Olympic Gold Medalist.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.0 (-3.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 29.9 (-40.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 10.2 (-22.2)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 3 (-8.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Middleton played his college ball at Kentucky and won a Gold Medal for the United States at the 2020 Olympics.

Beal almost won a scoring title, but his overall Elite Period advanced metrics are not Hall of Fame worthy.  He now enters his eleventh NBA year, and while he has been good, he needs to have a transcendant type of season to enter the conversation.  Pre-2019-20 Season: #44, Pre-2020-21 Season: #41, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #37.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.4 (-2)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 40.4 (-29.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.9 (-14.5)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Beal played one year at the University of Florida and was a First Team All-SEC Selection

Drummond l has peaked, but despite being a four-time Rebounding Champion and two-time All-Star, Drummond has never been considered an upper-tier player, and if his Elite Period is truly over, his Hall of Fame path relies on titles and stat-padding.  He should have an opportunity to that in Chicago. Pre-2019-20 Rank: #37, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #38, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #39

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.1 (+0.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 56.4 (-13.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 15.9 (-16.5)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Drummond played one year at the University of Connecticut and won a Gold Medal for the United States in the FIBA World Cup

After 12 seasons with the Memphis Grizzlies, Mike Conley is entering his fourth year with Utah.  Two years ago, Conley finally made his first All-Star Game, though his Elite Perd metric era did not change.  Frankly, it felt a bit like a lifetime achievement award, but one we were happy to see him obtain.  At age 35, Conley will not have the time left to do the work that gets him into Springfield.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #38, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #42, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #41.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.8 (-2.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 53.2 (-16.8)
  • Elite Period VORP 20.9 (-11.5)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Conley played one year at Ohio State where he helped them reach the NCAA Championship Game

Serge Ibaka won his first NBA Championship with the Raptors three years ago, and he is still a very good player.  Having never been an All-Star hurts Ibaka’s chances, but he is a three-time First Team All-Defensive Selection.  Now a Buck, a second NBA Title would be colossal.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #40, Pre-2020-21 Rank: #43, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #44.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 17.5 (-3.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 49.0 (-21)
  • Elite Period VORP 12.2 (-20.2)
  • All-Star Selections 0 (-8.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Ibaka, who was born in Congo, plays for Spain. He has won a Silver Medal at the Olympics and a Gold Medal in EuroBasket

In his 12th season in the NBA, and first in Milwaukee, Holiday helped lead the Bucks win the Championship.  Holiday, also made history by winning Olympic Gold in the same year.  Still a Buck, Holiday's Hall of Fame path relies on a Bucks dynasty.  Pre-2021-22 Rank: $7

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.6 (-2.8)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 37.1 (-32.9)
  • Elite Period VORP 17.0 (-15.4)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Holiday is an Olympic Gold Medalist with the United States, and he played a year at UCLA.

MItchell was had a contentuous relationship with Rudy Gobert, who is now his former teammate, as both he and Gobert were shipped off to new squads  What the three-time All-Star does tin his first year in Cleveland should state whether there is Hall of Fame potential or not.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.9 (-2.5)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 29 (-41)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.1 (-19.3)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Mitchell was a First Team All-ACC player at Louisville.
Sabonis enters the list, and begins what could be his first full season in Sacramento, a team not expected to do much this season.  He is a two-time NBA All-Star.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.7 (-2.7)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 34.6 (-35.4)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.1 (-21.3)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Sabonis played collegiately at Gonzaga where he was a First Team All-WCC Selection. Internationally, he represents Lithuania and has a Silver Medal in EuroBasket competition.

If there was a Hall of "Fairly Decent", Brook Lopez might be the poster child for it.  That is the career that he had, and while he is worthy of being on the fringes of this list, we know he is not getting in.  He is however an NBA Champion and a second Title in 2023, which would create a whisper.   Pre-2020-21 Rank: #45, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #45.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 21.8 (+0.4)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 35.9 (-34.1)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.8 (-20.6)
  • All-Star Selections 1 (-7.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 1 (-0.4)
  • Additional Notes Lopez played two years at Stanford where he was a Third Team All-American and First Team All-Pac-10 player

Injuries have piled up quickly for I.T., but he has time to rebound if his health permits, though it isn’t looking good.  That moment where he was a star Celtic seems like a lifetime ago. It would not surprise us, if he is unranked or even retired next year.  Pre-2019-20 Rank: #43, Pre 2020-21 Rank: #44, Pre-2021-22 Rank: #44.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 20.3 (-1.1)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 45.3 (-24.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.9 (-18.5)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 2 (-9.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Thomas played at the University of Washington for three years, and he was a two-time First Team Pac-10 Selection

Wow.  Starting off with the good, Simmons was an All-Star the last three years and was a First Team All-Defensive Selection the last two years.  The bad is that he failed miserably in the 2021 Playoffs, and the Sixers and Simmons no longer wanted to be associated with each other, and they both got their wish, with Simmons traded to Brooklyn, though he never suited up for them last year.  Simmons has a massive road to climb, but he has the skills.  Does he have the mental part down? There is a lot of rehab that his reputation requires.  Pre-2021-22 Rank: #48

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 19.8 (-1.6)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 30.4 (-39.6)
  • Elite Period VORP 13.4 (-19)
  • All-Star Selections 3 (-5.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Simmons played for one year at UCLA and has competed Internationally for Australia.
The young Point Guard has been an All-Star twice and is on a three-year streak of at least 25 Point sper Game.  Young was also a Third-Team All-NBA Selection, his first such honor.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 22.3 (+0.9)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 26.3 (-43.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 11.8 (-20.6)
  • All-Star Selections 2 (-6.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 1 (-10.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes Young was a scoring and assists leader in his lone year at Oklahoma, where he was a Consensus First Team All-American and First Team All-Big 12 player.
C.J. McCollum was traded out of the struggling Trail Blazers during last season, and he looks to hope that ZIon Williamson returns to make a run for a playoff spot in the West.  He has never been an All-Star, but has averaged 20 Points per Game the last seven years.

Stats

  • Elite Period PER 18.1 (-3.3)
  • Elite Period Win Shares 38.3 (-31.7)
  • Elite Period VORP 15.5 (-16.9)
  • All-Star Selections 0 (-8.3)
  • All-Pro Selections 0 (-11.9)
  • NBA Championships 0 (-1.4)
  • Additional Notes McCollum was a two-time Patriot League Player of the Year at Lehigh.