Committee Chairman
Kirk Buchner, "The Committee Chairman", is the owner and operator of the site. Kirk can be contacted at [email protected] .
2016 HOF Debate: Jeff Bagwell
Dec 31, 2015
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, last year we started with Jeff Bagwell, who is on the ballot for the 6th time. I am going to start off with giving myself a pat on the back for my prognostication prowess as I predicted he would remain around the same percentage of votes as the year before, which wasn’t too far off as he marginally grew his percentage from 54.3 to 55.7%.
I view that 1.4% growth as huge in a year where the ballot was so colossally loaded as a major win. I am serious on that, as had he dropped by the same percent, it would show the “order” in which the voters see him. When this site started he held the “1C” slot (the ineligible Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson hold 1A and 1B respectively) and the only reason he dropped in ranking (he is #5 right now) was because of the heavyweights entering the ballot.
My first thought is that Bagwell is poised for a major jump and while he may not enter this year, he will be a lot closer to knocking on that door.
Spheniscus: Chairman, I agree with your analysis on this one. Looking at the nominees, this looks like a list that has somewhere between 13 and 15 Hall of Famers of whom they will elect two. Why that number? Because the same people who did no investigation when the steroids era took off now sit in judgment of the players who played in that era.
The dumbest part of their evaluation unfortunately strikes right at Bagwell and his candidacy. He just looks to the voters like he took steroids. He was very muscular as a player and he hit lots of homers. He must have been cheating, right?
Well… maybe. But there is exactly zero evidence against him. That hasn’t stopped voters from withholding their votes from him of course, but with the “other unproven steroid guy” Mike Piazza likely to get in this year, I think it will help clear the way for Bagwell to get in. So I also expect a jump, probably up to the 65-67% range. Particularly since there are only two real first ballot threats added this year. One of whom, Ken Griffey Jr., will be joining Piazza in this class.
Chairman: It’s true. Bagwell has an unfair stain on him, as I personally think he should already be inducted. He is only three points away from that career 3/4/5 (with a .297/.408/.540), is 21st all-time in OPS and is 38th all-time in WAR for position players. Honestly, I think he was more valuable than his teammate, Craig Biggio, who already got in, and it should have been Bagwell opening the door for Biggio, not the other way around.
There is no statistical argument against him. We know what has been holding him back, and it is suspicion, nothing more. He has done than enough to counter playing for low-profile Houston and playing a position that saw a lot of other power hitters with sexier names. What worries me is that if he doesn’t make a significant jump this year, he will be in serious trouble, because this really seems to be the year for it to happen.
Spheniscus: I didn’t realize a career 3/4/5 was a thing, but it is damn impressive.
I am not worried about Bagwell getting in. He will get damn close this year. Somewhere into the 60s. And once he is there he will be easy for the people on the fence to vote for him. With next year’s class adding three serious candidates in Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez, the last two of whom have serious PED issues attached, Bagwell will be inducted in 2017.
Chairman: I think he has a serious shot this year, but failing that, he won’t have to wait any longer than a year.
As for my fictional vote, this is a solid yes for me, as it has been from the very beginning.
Spheniscus: Clearly a solid yes for me as well. I think he ends up just short. But I hope to be pleasantly surprised. He will get in next year.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, last year we started with Jeff Bagwell, who is on the ballot for the 6th time. I am going to start off with giving myself a pat on the back for my prognostication prowess as I predicted he would remain around the same percentage of votes as the year before, which wasn’t too far off as he marginally grew his percentage from 54.3 to 55.7%.
I view that 1.4% growth as huge in a year where the ballot was so colossally loaded as a major win. I am serious on that, as had he dropped by the same percent, it would show the “order” in which the voters see him. When this site started he held the “1C” slot (the ineligible Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson hold 1A and 1B respectively) and the only reason he dropped in ranking (he is #5 right now) was because of the heavyweights entering the ballot.
My first thought is that Bagwell is poised for a major jump and while he may not enter this year, he will be a lot closer to knocking on that door.
Spheniscus: Chairman, I agree with your analysis on this one. Looking at the nominees, this looks like a list that has somewhere between 13 and 15 Hall of Famers of whom they will elect two. Why that number? Because the same people who did no investigation when the steroids era took off now sit in judgment of the players who played in that era.
The dumbest part of their evaluation unfortunately strikes right at Bagwell and his candidacy. He just looks to the voters like he took steroids. He was very muscular as a player and he hit lots of homers. He must have been cheating, right?
Well… maybe. But there is exactly zero evidence against him. That hasn’t stopped voters from withholding their votes from him of course, but with the “other unproven steroid guy” Mike Piazza likely to get in this year, I think it will help clear the way for Bagwell to get in. So I also expect a jump, probably up to the 65-67% range. Particularly since there are only two real first ballot threats added this year. One of whom, Ken Griffey Jr., will be joining Piazza in this class.
Chairman: It’s true. Bagwell has an unfair stain on him, as I personally think he should already be inducted. He is only three points away from that career 3/4/5 (with a .297/.408/.540), is 21st all-time in OPS and is 38th all-time in WAR for position players. Honestly, I think he was more valuable than his teammate, Craig Biggio, who already got in, and it should have been Bagwell opening the door for Biggio, not the other way around.
There is no statistical argument against him. We know what has been holding him back, and it is suspicion, nothing more. He has done than enough to counter playing for low-profile Houston and playing a position that saw a lot of other power hitters with sexier names. What worries me is that if he doesn’t make a significant jump this year, he will be in serious trouble, because this really seems to be the year for it to happen.
Spheniscus: I didn’t realize a career 3/4/5 was a thing, but it is damn impressive.
I am not worried about Bagwell getting in. He will get damn close this year. Somewhere into the 60s. And once he is there he will be easy for the people on the fence to vote for him. With next year’s class adding three serious candidates in Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez, the last two of whom have serious PED issues attached, Bagwell will be inducted in 2017.
Chairman: I think he has a serious shot this year, but failing that, he won’t have to wait any longer than a year.
As for my fictional vote, this is a solid yes for me, as it has been from the very beginning.
Spheniscus: Clearly a solid yes for me as well. I think he ends up just short. But I hope to be pleasantly surprised. He will get in next year.
2016 HOF Debate: Garret Anderson
Dec 30, 2015
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Sometimes I just don’t know any better.
I know that Garret Anderson is not going to go to Cooperstown without a ticket. However, this is a guy who had over 2,500 Hits in Major League Baseball and while that is not a number that makes people salivate, I think it is still one hell of an accomplishment and one that makes him worth a deeper look; even though I know this is a one and done candidate.
Spheniscus: I agree that he is never probably getting in, but I give him a shot of sticking around at least a year on the ballot. But I do have to say coming into this, I expected him to have better numbers than he actually does.
We are both AL East fans, so our exposure to Anderson was limited to maybe nine games a year. But it seemed that every time the Red Sox were out in Anaheim, Anderson just killed us. He is 5th on the ballot in hits, behind only Bonds, Griffey, Sheffield, and Raines. He is also 9th in RBIs. That is where the good news for him ends.
Using the HOFm metric, created by Bill James, Anderson is 24th of the 32 players on this ballot. He is behind other first timers like Billy Wagner and Brad Ausmus. He never walked much and his OPS is well behind guys like Mike Sweeney and Troy Glaus. Hell, he actually has a lower WAR than Randy Winn, who probably needs a ticket, an ID, and a copy of his birth certificate to get into the Hall.
So no, he’s not getting in. But he does have 2,500 hits. And his similar are guys like Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, and Bernie Williams, which may hold some sway for some people. Ultimately, if Nomar can get 5% last year it is entirely possible that Anderson could get 5% this year. But I put his chances at around well, 5% of that happening.
Committee Chairman: I loved the Steve Garvey reference. When I was going through his stats, I kept having the same thought process. Garvey had seven seasons batting over .300 but his highest On Base Percentage was .361. Anderson hit .300 five times and his highest OBP was .345. This stat matters.
When I was a kid, walks were met with polite applause from the crowd and for a missed pitch with no real action involved, a savvy baseball crowd (which is more and more the case) gives a bigger reaction because they appreciate the impact. Anderson’s low OBP is a turn off and a big one at that.
Spheniscus: Not to get back to the Red Sox again, but the lack of appreciation for walks is why Wade Boggs was not nearly as beloved as he should have been in Boston. Boggs was a man ahead of his time, a modern stats darling. A man who we all hated every time he took a walk in a big spot rather than swinging the bat. Doesn’t he know how good he is? Why is he leaving it to Marty Barrett all the time? We didn’t know any better. We do now. And consequently the Sox just announced that they are retiring his number (after such luminaries as: Wes Chamberlain, Lee Tinsley, Alejandro Pena, Aaron Sele, Chris Snopek, Orlando Merced, Rob Staniford, Sean Berry, Lou Merloni, Freddy Sanchez, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Podsednik, and Brock Holt have worn in the intervening years).
Anderson would have had a better chance of getting in when Garvey was on the ballot than he does now. Back when walks were unmanly. And unlike Garvey, he is probably not going to stay on this ballot for 15 years and certainly never getting over 40% of the vote. His OBP is WTL (way too low). Like Garvey, he is not getting in without a ticket.
So what is your prediction for Anderson? Would you vote for him and what percentage does he get?
Chairman: Never apologize for bringing it back to the Red Sox! I have to say that because I am always going to bring it back to the Blue Jays!
He doesn’t get my vote, and not because of the crowded ballot. I just don’t see him in the elite, and I think the voters will agree. Prediction: 1.4% of the ballot, and that is very generous!
Spheniscus: That seems a little low. While he is a no for me on this list, there are approximately 550 voters. That means only 8 would vote for Anderson? Eh… there have to be at least that many homers from the Anaheim area right? Man, looking at it he’s probably not getting much more than that. But let’s round up. I give him 10 votes, which is approximately 1.8%. Thanks for playing Garret! You get Hall of Fame votes as your parting gift. Very few players can say that.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Sometimes I just don’t know any better.
I know that Garret Anderson is not going to go to Cooperstown without a ticket. However, this is a guy who had over 2,500 Hits in Major League Baseball and while that is not a number that makes people salivate, I think it is still one hell of an accomplishment and one that makes him worth a deeper look; even though I know this is a one and done candidate.
Spheniscus: I agree that he is never probably getting in, but I give him a shot of sticking around at least a year on the ballot. But I do have to say coming into this, I expected him to have better numbers than he actually does.
We are both AL East fans, so our exposure to Anderson was limited to maybe nine games a year. But it seemed that every time the Red Sox were out in Anaheim, Anderson just killed us. He is 5th on the ballot in hits, behind only Bonds, Griffey, Sheffield, and Raines. He is also 9th in RBIs. That is where the good news for him ends.
Using the HOFm metric, created by Bill James, Anderson is 24th of the 32 players on this ballot. He is behind other first timers like Billy Wagner and Brad Ausmus. He never walked much and his OPS is well behind guys like Mike Sweeney and Troy Glaus. Hell, he actually has a lower WAR than Randy Winn, who probably needs a ticket, an ID, and a copy of his birth certificate to get into the Hall.
So no, he’s not getting in. But he does have 2,500 hits. And his similar are guys like Steve Garvey, Dave Parker, and Bernie Williams, which may hold some sway for some people. Ultimately, if Nomar can get 5% last year it is entirely possible that Anderson could get 5% this year. But I put his chances at around well, 5% of that happening.
Committee Chairman: I loved the Steve Garvey reference. When I was going through his stats, I kept having the same thought process. Garvey had seven seasons batting over .300 but his highest On Base Percentage was .361. Anderson hit .300 five times and his highest OBP was .345. This stat matters.
When I was a kid, walks were met with polite applause from the crowd and for a missed pitch with no real action involved, a savvy baseball crowd (which is more and more the case) gives a bigger reaction because they appreciate the impact. Anderson’s low OBP is a turn off and a big one at that.
Spheniscus: Not to get back to the Red Sox again, but the lack of appreciation for walks is why Wade Boggs was not nearly as beloved as he should have been in Boston. Boggs was a man ahead of his time, a modern stats darling. A man who we all hated every time he took a walk in a big spot rather than swinging the bat. Doesn’t he know how good he is? Why is he leaving it to Marty Barrett all the time? We didn’t know any better. We do now. And consequently the Sox just announced that they are retiring his number (after such luminaries as: Wes Chamberlain, Lee Tinsley, Alejandro Pena, Aaron Sele, Chris Snopek, Orlando Merced, Rob Staniford, Sean Berry, Lou Merloni, Freddy Sanchez, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Podsednik, and Brock Holt have worn in the intervening years).
Anderson would have had a better chance of getting in when Garvey was on the ballot than he does now. Back when walks were unmanly. And unlike Garvey, he is probably not going to stay on this ballot for 15 years and certainly never getting over 40% of the vote. His OBP is WTL (way too low). Like Garvey, he is not getting in without a ticket.
So what is your prediction for Anderson? Would you vote for him and what percentage does he get?
Chairman: Never apologize for bringing it back to the Red Sox! I have to say that because I am always going to bring it back to the Blue Jays!
He doesn’t get my vote, and not because of the crowded ballot. I just don’t see him in the elite, and I think the voters will agree. Prediction: 1.4% of the ballot, and that is very generous!
Spheniscus: That seems a little low. While he is a no for me on this list, there are approximately 550 voters. That means only 8 would vote for Anderson? Eh… there have to be at least that many homers from the Anaheim area right? Man, looking at it he’s probably not getting much more than that. But let’s round up. I give him 10 votes, which is approximately 1.8%. Thanks for playing Garret! You get Hall of Fame votes as your parting gift. Very few players can say that.
The Fictitious Athlete HOF Announces Our Class of 2015!
Dec 30, 2015
Published in
Not in Hall of Fame News
With all of your help the second full class of the Fictitious Athlete has been announced and unlike last year’s baseball sweep, the six new inductees represent five other sports.
The Hanson Brothers, Happy Gilmore and Reggie Dunlop join inaugural inductee, Rocky Balboa and last year’s class of Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, Crash Davis and Roy Hobbs into the participant section of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame. The contributor section welcomes Carl Spackler and Mr. Miyagi and the first veteran’s category inductee was chosen with Andy “The Champ” Purcell”.
The Hanson Brothers, from the 1977 film, Slap Shot received the most votes by a wide margin this year. The scene stealing siblings were played three real hockey players (David Hanson, Steve Carlson & Jeff Carlson) and wore tin foil on their knuckles, taped up eye glasses and would fight anyone. They were without question the breakout stars of the cult sports film.
Finishing second in the vote is Happy Gilmore, from the film of the same name. The titular character played by Adam Sandler, transfered his booming slap shot into prowess on the golf course. The character has inadvertently caused more amateur golfers to ask golf balls if they were to good for their home and experiment with hockey sticks on the golf course.
The third and final athletic inductee again comes from Slap Shot. The lead character, Reggie Dunlop was played by the legendary Paul Newman who portrayed the player/coach with every ounce of charisma he had. The film saw Dunlop, an aging veteran pull every trick he had to keep his team, the Charlestown Chiefs from folding.
These fictional athletes were elected over the process of a yearlong online vote, which started with over 300 Preliminary Candidates, was reduced to 50 Semi-Finalists, then reduced to an elite 15 in a Final Round, which produced the first Full Class of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame.
These new inductees beat out the following finalists (in order of their vote totals) in the Final Round:
- Charlie Conway (The Mighty Ducks)
- Apollo Creed (Rocky)
- Willie “Mays” Hayes (Major League)
- Forrest Gump (Forrest Gump)
- Ricky Bobby (Talladega Nights)
- Bobby Boucher (The Waterboy)
- Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez (The Sandlot)
- Al Bundy (Married…With Children)
- Daniel LaRusso (The Karate Kid)
- Kenny Powers (Eastbound and Down)
- Sam Malone (Cheers)
- Clubber Lang (Rocky III)
Like “real” Athletic Halls of Fame, the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame has a “wing” for contributors; again decided by three stages of online voting. This year however there were two Fictitious Contributors selected as opposed to one form last year.
Joining Harry Doyle (Major League) who was the first contributing inductee from last year’s vote are Mr. Miyagi (Pat Morita), the karate instructor from the Karate Kid series of movies and Carl Spackler, the groundskeeper played by Bill Murray in Caddyshack.
Mr. Miyagi and Carl Spackler beat out the other finalists (in order of their vote totals) in the Final Round:
- Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams)
- Jimmy Dugan (A League of Their Own)
- Norman Dale (Hoosiers)
- Chubbs Peterson (Happy Gilmore)
- Mickey Goldmill (Rocky)
- Lou Brown (Major League)
- Gordon Bombay (The Mighty Ducks)
- Jerry Maguire (Jerry Maguire)
- Bud Kilmer (Varsity Blues)
For the first time ever, a Veteran’s Inductee was chosen as Andy “The Champ” Purcell from the original “The Champ”, which was released in 1931. This beat out the other two finalists Dennis Ryan (Frank Sinatra) from Take Me Out to the Ballgame and Joy Boyd (Tab Hunter) from Damn Yankees.
The Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame launched in November, 2014. As per the 2015 ballot, the 2016 Ballot begins again with over 300 preliminary nominees, who will again be reduced to Semi Finalists and Finalists until we unveil next year’s class on December 30, 2016.
As per last year, there will be three categories for next year, with Athletes, Contributors, and a new category of Veteran Candidates, who are fictitious athletic characters who existed before 1970.
Are you ready to vote for the next class?
You can go right to the voting here!
http://www.notinhalloffame.com/the-voting/2016-fictitious-athletes-round-1
The Hanson Brothers, Happy Gilmore and Reggie Dunlop join inaugural inductee, Rocky Balboa and last year’s class of Ricky “Wild Thing” Vaughn, Crash Davis and Roy Hobbs into the participant section of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame. The contributor section welcomes Carl Spackler and Mr. Miyagi and the first veteran’s category inductee was chosen with Andy “The Champ” Purcell”.
The Hanson Brothers, from the 1977 film, Slap Shot received the most votes by a wide margin this year. The scene stealing siblings were played three real hockey players (David Hanson, Steve Carlson & Jeff Carlson) and wore tin foil on their knuckles, taped up eye glasses and would fight anyone. They were without question the breakout stars of the cult sports film.
Finishing second in the vote is Happy Gilmore, from the film of the same name. The titular character played by Adam Sandler, transfered his booming slap shot into prowess on the golf course. The character has inadvertently caused more amateur golfers to ask golf balls if they were to good for their home and experiment with hockey sticks on the golf course.
The third and final athletic inductee again comes from Slap Shot. The lead character, Reggie Dunlop was played by the legendary Paul Newman who portrayed the player/coach with every ounce of charisma he had. The film saw Dunlop, an aging veteran pull every trick he had to keep his team, the Charlestown Chiefs from folding.
These fictional athletes were elected over the process of a yearlong online vote, which started with over 300 Preliminary Candidates, was reduced to 50 Semi-Finalists, then reduced to an elite 15 in a Final Round, which produced the first Full Class of the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame.
These new inductees beat out the following finalists (in order of their vote totals) in the Final Round:
- Charlie Conway (The Mighty Ducks)
- Apollo Creed (Rocky)
- Willie “Mays” Hayes (Major League)
- Forrest Gump (Forrest Gump)
- Ricky Bobby (Talladega Nights)
- Bobby Boucher (The Waterboy)
- Benny “The Jet” Rodriguez (The Sandlot)
- Al Bundy (Married…With Children)
- Daniel LaRusso (The Karate Kid)
- Kenny Powers (Eastbound and Down)
- Sam Malone (Cheers)
- Clubber Lang (Rocky III)
Like “real” Athletic Halls of Fame, the Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame has a “wing” for contributors; again decided by three stages of online voting. This year however there were two Fictitious Contributors selected as opposed to one form last year.
Joining Harry Doyle (Major League) who was the first contributing inductee from last year’s vote are Mr. Miyagi (Pat Morita), the karate instructor from the Karate Kid series of movies and Carl Spackler, the groundskeeper played by Bill Murray in Caddyshack.
Mr. Miyagi and Carl Spackler beat out the other finalists (in order of their vote totals) in the Final Round:
- Ray Kinsella (Field of Dreams)
- Jimmy Dugan (A League of Their Own)
- Norman Dale (Hoosiers)
- Chubbs Peterson (Happy Gilmore)
- Mickey Goldmill (Rocky)
- Lou Brown (Major League)
- Gordon Bombay (The Mighty Ducks)
- Jerry Maguire (Jerry Maguire)
- Bud Kilmer (Varsity Blues)
For the first time ever, a Veteran’s Inductee was chosen as Andy “The Champ” Purcell from the original “The Champ”, which was released in 1931. This beat out the other two finalists Dennis Ryan (Frank Sinatra) from Take Me Out to the Ballgame and Joy Boyd (Tab Hunter) from Damn Yankees.
The Fictitious Athlete Hall of Fame launched in November, 2014. As per the 2015 ballot, the 2016 Ballot begins again with over 300 preliminary nominees, who will again be reduced to Semi Finalists and Finalists until we unveil next year’s class on December 30, 2016.
As per last year, there will be three categories for next year, with Athletes, Contributors, and a new category of Veteran Candidates, who are fictitious athletic characters who existed before 1970.
Are you ready to vote for the next class?
You can go right to the voting here!
http://www.notinhalloffame.com/the-voting/2016-fictitious-athletes-round-1
Memories Are Made of This
Dec 29, 2015
Published in
History of Number One Songs
January 14 – February 17, 1956
Dean Martin
Memories Are Made of This
Dean Martin
Memories Are Made of This