Baseball Hall of Fame: Ballot Forecast 2021 to 2025

Baseball Hall of Fame: Ballot Forecast 2021 to 2025
12 Dec
2020
Not in Hall of Fame

Index



Appendix: Player Statistics

This section contains career statistics for all the player-candidates eligible for the National Baseball Hall of Fame between 2021 and 2025 who have been profiled in this article.

The statistics have been broken out separately for position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers, in that order. All three candidate sections contain tables listing statistics for player value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume or quantitative statistics), effectiveness (rate or qualitative statistics), and recognition (awards and leaderboard statistics); the relief-pitcher section contains an additional effectiveness table for statistics more specific to a reliever's closely-defined role.

Beneath the first instance of each table are descriptions of the statistics listed in the table. Those descriptions are not repeated in subsequent tables although any new statistics are described. Note: Standard or traditional statistics and their common abbreviations (for example, HR for home runs) are not defined. Readers who have come this far are assumed to know these already.

Position Players Eligible 2021 to 2025


The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table) for the notable position players expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by bWAR.

Hall of Fame Statistics for Position Players on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by bWAR

Player

Pos.

Debut Year

fWAR

bWAR

WAR7

JAWS

JAWS Rank*

HoF Mon.

(≈100)

HoF Std.

(≈50)

Rodriguez, Alex

SS

2022

113.7

117.8

64.3

91.0

2

390

76

Beltré, Adrián

3B

2024

84.1

93.6

48.7

71.2

4

163

55

Beltran, Carlos

CF

2023

67.9

69.6

44.4

57.0

9

126

52

Utley, Chase

2B

2024

62.9

65.4

49.3

57.3

9

94

36

Suzuki, Ichiro

RF

2025

57.8

59.4

43.7

51.5

17

234

44

Ortiz, David +

DH/1B

2022

51.0

55.3

35.2

45.2

29

171

55

Kinsler, Ian

2B

2025

47.7

55.2

38.1

46.6

18

66

35

Mauer, Joe

C

2024

52.5

55.0

39.0

47.0

8

92

41

Teixeira, Mark

1B

2022

44.8

51.8

38.0

44.9

30

108

33

Wright, David

3B

2024

52.0

50.4

40.2

45.3

23

74

36

Hunter, Torii

CF

2021

43.0

50.1

30.8

40.4

34

58

34

Granderson, Curtis

CF

2025

47.6

47.0

34.7

40.9

33

60

28

Rollins, Jimmy

SS

2022

49.4

46.3

32.4

39.3

32

121

42

Holliday, Matt

LF

2024

49.7

44.8

34.3

39.6

34

110

41

Zobrist, Ben

2B

2025

44.4

44.5

39.6

42.1

25

22

23

Tulowitzki, Troy

SS

2025

38.2

44.1

40.3

42.2

26

46

35

Gonzalez, Adrian

1B

2024

36.4

42.2

33.8

38.0

43

90

31

Crawford, Carl

LF

2022

41.5

39.2

32.3

35.8

43

52

22

Bautista, Jose

RF

2024

35.6

35.9

37.8

36.8

48

78

27

McCann, Brian

C

2025

54.5

31.8

24.4

28.1

32

84

35

Fielder, Prince

1B

2022

27.5

23.6

24.4

24.0

99

85

27

Howard, Ryan

1B

2022

19.6

15.0

19.2

17.1

140

98

25


+ Ranked by JAWS as first baseman.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

WAR7: The sum of a player's best seven seasons as defined by bWAR; they need not be consecutive seasons.

JAWS: Jaffe WAR Score system—an average of a player's career WAR and his seven-year WAR peak.

JAWS Rank: The player's ranking at that position by JAWS rating. (*) In this table, JAWS rank is for the player at his primary position only and is not a ranking of all position players.

Hall of Fame Monitor: An index of how likely a player is to be inducted to the Hall of Fame based on his entire playing record (offensive, defensive, awards, position played, postseason success), with an index score of 100 being a good possibility and 130 a "virtual cinch." Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Hall of Fame Standards: An index of performance standards, indexed to 50 as being the score for an average Hall of Famer. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.


The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics, for the notable position players expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by hits.

Volume Statistics for Position Players on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Hits

 

GP

PA

H

2B

HR

R

RBI

BB

SB

Beltré, Adrián

2933

12,130

3166

636

477

1524

1707

848

121

Rodriguez, Alex

2784

12,207

3115

548

696

2021

2086

1338

329

Suzuki, Ichiro

2653

10,734

3089

362

117

1420

780

647

509

Beltran, Carlos

2586

11,031

2725

565

435

1582

1587

1084

312

Ortiz, David

2408

10,091

2472

632

541

1419

1768

1319

17

Rollins, Jimmy

2275

10,240

2455

511

231

1421

936

813

470

Hunter, Torii

2372

9692

2452

498

353

1296

1391

661

195

Mauer, Joe

1858

7960

2123

428

143

1018

923

939

52

Holliday, Matt

1903

7009

2096

468

316

1157

1220

802

108

Gonzalez, Adrian

1929

8046

2050

437

317

997

1202

782

6

Kinsler, Ian

1888

8299

1999

416

257

1243

909

693

243

Crawford, Carl

1716

7178

1931

309

136

998

766

377

480

Utley, Chase

1937

7863

1885

411

259

1103

1025

724

154

Teixeira, Mark

1862

8029

1862

408

409

1099

1298

918

26

Granderson, Curtis

2057

8306

1800

346

344

1217

937

924

153

Wright, David

1585

6872

1777

390

242

949

970

762

196

Fielder, Prince

1611

6853

1645

321

319

862

1028

847

18

McCann, Brian

1755

6850

1590

294

282

742

1018

640

25

Zobrist, Ben

1651

6836

1566

349

167

884

768

832

116

Bautista, Jose

1798

7244

1496

312

344

1022

975

1032

70

Howard, Ryan

1572

6531

1475

277

382

848

1194

709

12

Tulowitzki, Troy

1291

5415

1391

264

225

762

780

511

57



The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers, for the notable position players expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by weighted Runs Created.

Rate Statistics for Position Players on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Weighted Runs Created Plus

 

Slash Line

wOBA

wRC+

OPS+

WAA

RAA

WPA

Rodriguez, Alex

.295/.380/.550/.930

.395

141

140

76.1

788

59.2

Ortiz, David

.286/.380/.552/.931

.392

140

141

20.2

186

50.6

Holliday, Matt

.299/.379/.510/.889

.383

135

132

20.3

212

37.5

Fielder, Prince

.283/.382/.506/.887

.377

133

134

1.9

22

35.1

Wright, David

.296/.376/.491/.867

.373

133

133

29.9

306

30.2

Teixeira, Mark

.268/.360/.509/.869

.371

127

126

24.4

238

25.4

Gonzalez, Adrian

.287/.358/.485/.843

.359

127

129

17.0

177

34.4

Bautista, Jose

.247/.361/.475/.836

.362

126

124

11.8

105

19.9

Mauer, Joe

.306/.388/.439/.827

.358

123

124

27.3

262

27.6

Howard, Ryan

.258/.343/.515/.859

.361

121

125

–4.9

–24

30.1

Tulowitzki, Troy

.290/.361/.495/.856

.368

119

118

27.2

264

10.0

Beltran, Carlos

.279/.350/.486/.837

.358

118

119

33.8

347

35.8

Utley, Chase

.275/.358/.465/.823

.356

118

117

41.8

426

27.7

Zobrist, Ben

.266/.357/.426/.783

.342

116

113

21.4

200

10.6

Beltré, Adrián

.286/.339/.480/.819

.350

115

116

52.8

511

18.3

Granderson, Curtis

.249/.337/.465/.803

.347

115

114

19.0

187

16.7

Hunter, Torii

.277/.331/.461/.793

.342

110

110

15.8

146

3.8

McCann, Brian

.262/.337/.452/.789

.340

110

110

10.0

102

11.0

Kinsler, Ian

.269/.337/.440/.777

.338

107

107

27.6

253

4.7

Crawford, Carl

.290/.330/.435/.765

.332

104

105

14.5

142

6.5

Suzuki, Ichiro

.311/.355/.402/.757

.328

104

107

23.9

240

11.9

Rollins, Jimmy

.264/.324/.418/.743

.323

95

95

16.7

186

8.5


Slash Line:
Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).

wOBA: Weighted on-base average as calculated by FanGraphs. Weighs singles, extra-base hits, walks, and hits by pitch; generally, .400 is excellent and .320 is league-average.

wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

WPA: Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a player has influenced the outcome of a given game through his offensive contribution.

The table below details the awards and leader statistics for the notable position players expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by Black Ink Test. (See the legend beneath the table for category descriptions.)

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Position Players on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Black-Ink Test

Player

MVP

MVP Top 10

All-Star

Silver Slugger

Gold Glove

RoY

Black Ink

Gray Ink

Rodriguez, Alex

3

10

14

10

2

0

68

214

Suzuki, Ichiro

1

4

10

3

10

1

43

142

Ortiz, David

0

7

9

7

0

0

25

161

Howard, Ryan

1

6

3

1

0

1

21

84

Bautista, Joey

0

4

6

3

0

0

15

70

Mauer, Joe

1

4

6

5

3

0

15

43

Fielder, Prince

0

4

6

3

0

0

14

100

Rollins, Jimmy

1

2

3

1

4

0

14

82

Holliday, Matt

0

1

7

4

0

0

13

107

Teixeira, Mark

0

2

3

3

5

0

13

78

Crawford, Carl

0

1

4

1

1

0

12

48

Gonzalez, Adrian

0

3

5

2

4

0

10

85

Beltré, Adrián

0

5

4

4

5

0

9

98

Granderson, Curtis

0

2

3

1

0

0

9

58

Utley, Chase

0

3

6

4

0

0

3

42

Beltran, Carlos

0

2

9

2

3

1

1

76

Kinsler, Ian

0

0

4

0

2

0

1

55

Wright, David

0

4

7

2

3

0

0

88

Tulowitzki, Troy

0

3

5

2

2

0

0

38

Hunter, Torii

0

1

5

2

9

0

0

29

Zobrist, Ben

0

1

3

0

0

0

0

25

McCann, Brian

0

0

7

6

0

0

0

9


MVP:
Most Valuable Player Award.

MVP Top 10: Number of times a player finished in the top 10 of his league's MVP voting. Includes an MVP win.

Silver Slugger Award: Awarded to the best offensive player at every position.

RoY: Rookie of the Year Award.

Black Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a player led his league in significant batting statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 27. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Gray-Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a player appeared in the top ten of his league in significant batting statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 144. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.


These four tables help to illustrate the qualities of position-player value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber player from other position players. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.

Starting Pitchers Eligible 2021 to 2025


The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics for the notable starting pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by bWAR. (See the legend beneath the table for position players above for explanations of the categories.)

Hall of Fame Statistics for Starting Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by bWAR

Player

Debut Year

fWAR

bWAR

WAR7

JAWS

JAWS Rank

WPA

HoF Mon.

(≈100)

HoF Std.

(≈50)

Sabathia, CC

2025

66.5

62.5

39.4

50.9

71

22.8

128

48

Buehrle, Mark

2021

52.3

59.2

35.8

47.5

90

17.2

52

31

Hudson, Tim

2021

48.9

58.1

38.3

48.2

84

29.8

66

42

Colon, Bartolo

2024

51.0

46.1

35.6

40.8

143

12.0

88

37

Peavy, Jake

2022

43.7

39.6

30.7

35.1

202

13.5

56

27

Lackey, John

2023

43.2

37.6

29.3

33.5

215

9.3

48

28

Zito, Barry

2021

30.2

31.9

30.6

31.2

249

6.8

48

19

Lincecum, Tim

2022

27.5

19.7

23.9

21.8

436

6.2

66

17


WPA:
Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a starting pitcher has influenced the outcome of a given game through his pitching contribution.


The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics, for the notable starting pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by innings pitched.

Volume Statistics for Starting Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Innings Pitched

Pitcher

GS

IP

Win-Loss

PCT

Hits

HR

BB

SO

Sabathia, CC

560

3577.1

251-161

.609

3404

382

1099

3093

Colon, Bartolo

552

3461.2

247–188

.568

3593

439

948

2535

Buehrle, Mark

493

3283.1

214–160

.572

3472

361

734

1870

Hudson, Tim

479

3126.2

222–133

.625

2957

248

917

2080

Lackey, John

448

2840.1

188–147

.561

2862

319

815

2294

Zito, Barry

421

2576.2

165–143

.536

2381

282

1064

1885

Peavy, Jake

388

2377.0

152–126

.547

2134

259

708

2207

Lincecum, Tim

270

1682.0

110–89

.553

1506

147

669

1736


GS
: Career games started.

IP: Career innings pitched.

Win-Loss: Career win-loss record.

PCT: Career win-loss percentage.


The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers, for the notable starting pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by weighted Adjusted Earned Run Average Plus (ERA+).

Rate Statistics for Starting Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by ERA+

Pitcher

ERA

ERA+

RA9

FIP

WHIP

RAA

WAA

SO9

SO/W

Hudson, Tim

3.49

120

3.80

3.78

1.239

283

30.0

6.0

2.27

Buehrle, Mark

3.81

117

4.23

4.11

1.281

275

29.4

5.1

2.55

Sabathia, CC

3.74

116

4.08

3.78

1.259

263

28.5

7.8

2.81

Peavy, Jake

3.63

110

3.83

3.65

1.196

158

17.7

8.4

3.12

Lackey, John

3.92

110

4.27

3.95

1.295

108

12.3

7.3

2.81

Colon, Bartolo

4.12

106

4.47

4.15

1.312

139

16.1

6.6

2.67

Zito, Barry

4.04

105

4.38

4.39

1.337

94

10.1

6.6

1.77

Lincecum, Tim

3.74

104

3.99

3.45

1.293

46

6.7

9.3

2.59


ERA
: Career earned run average.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

RA9: Career runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Includes unearned runs.

FIP: Career fielding-independent pitching. Measures effectiveness at minimizing home runs, walks, and hits by pitch and at maximizing strikeouts.

WHIP: Career walks and hits allowed per innings pitched.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

SO9: Career strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

SO/W: Career strikeouts-to-walks ratio.


The table below details the awards and leader statistics for the notable starting pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by Black Ink Test. (See the legend beneath the table for category descriptions.)

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Starting Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Black-Ink Test

Player

CYA

CYA Top 5

MVP Top 10

All-Star

Gold Glove

RoY

Black Ink

Gray Ink

Sabathia, CC

1

5

1

6

0

0

22

174

Lincecum, Tim

2

3

0

4

0

0

21

84

Peavy, Jake

1

1

1

3

1

0

20

89

Buerhle, Mark

0

1

0

5

4

0

12

116

Hudson, Tim

0

3

0

4

0

0

11

143

Colon, Bartolo

1

2

0

4

0

0

11

140

Zito, Barry

1

1

0

3

0

0

8

88

Lackey, John

0

1

0

1

0

0

8

82


CYA:
Cy Young Award.

CYA Top 5: Number of times a player finished in the top 5 of his league's Cy Young Award voting. Includes a Cy Young Award MVP win.

MVP Top 10: Number of times a player finished in the top 10 of his league's MVP voting. Includes an MVP win. (*) Indicates that the pitcher won at least one MVP Award.

Black Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a pitcher led his league in significant pitching statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 40. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Gray-Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a pitcher appeared in the top ten of his league in significant pitching statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 185. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.


These four tables help to illustrate the qualities of pitcher value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber starting pitcher from other starters. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.

Relief Pitchers Eligible 2021 to 2025


The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics for the notable relief pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by bWAR. (See the legend beneath the table for position players above for explanations of the categories.)

Hall of Fame Statistics for Relief Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by bWAR

Player

Debut Year

fWAR

bWAR

WAR7

JAWS

JAWS Rank

WPA

HoF Mon.

(≈100)

HoF Std.

(≈50)

Nathan, Joe

2022

19.5

26.6

21.7

24.2

18

30.6

98

29

Rodriguez, Francisco

2023

16.3

23.9

17.6

20.8

35

24.4

124

16

Papelbon, Jonathan

2022

19.4

23.5

19.6

21.6

29

28.3

80

23


WPA:
Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a relief pitcher has influenced the outcome of a given game through his pitching contribution.


The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics, for the notable relief pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by appearances.

Volume Statistics for Relief Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Appearances

Pitcher

APP

IP

SV

BS

HLD

Hits

HR

BB

SO

Rodriguez, Francisco

948

976.0

437

76

88

738

98

389

1142

Nathan, Joe

787

923.1

377

46

27

690

84

344

976

Papelbon, Jonathan

689

725.2

368

49

8

572

57

185

808


APP
: Career appearances.

IP: Career innings pitched.

SV: Career saves.

BS: Career blown saves.

HLD: Career holds.


The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers, for the notable relief pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by weighted Adjusted Earned Run Average Plus (ERA+).

Rate Statistics for Relief Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by ERA+

Pitcher

ERA

ERA+

RA9

FIP

WHIP

RAA

WAA

SO9

SO/W

Papelbon, Jonathan

2.44

177

2.80

2.81

1.043

125

13.1

10.0

4.37

Nathan, Joe

2.87

151

3.09

3.36

1.120

137

14.0

9.5

2.84

Rodriguez, Francisco

2.86

148

3.10

3.31

1.155

117

12.2

10.5

2.94


ERA
: Career earned run average.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

RA9: Career runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Includes unearned runs.

FIP: Career fielding-independent pitching. Measures effectiveness at minimizing home runs, walks, and hits by pitch and at maximizing strikeouts.

WHIP: Career walks and hits allowed per innings pitched.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

SO9: Career strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

SO/W: Career strikeouts-to-walks ratio.


The table below details the relief-pitcher effectiveness statistics for the notable relief pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by Average Leverage Index (aLI). (See the legend beneath the table for explanations of the categories.)

Relief Pitcher Effectiveness for Relief Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Average Leverage Index

Pitcher

Slash Line

SV%

aLI

IR

IS

IS%

SO%

Papelbon, Jonathan

.213/.271/.321/.592

88

1.810

141

37

26

27.5

Rodriguez, Francisco

.207/.287/.341/.628

85

1.803

244

70

29

28.5

Nathan, Joe

.197/.266/.308/.574

89

1.587

143

46

32

25.9


Slash Line:
Aggregate opposing hitters' batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage against the pitcher.

SV%: Career save percentage, total saves divided by total save opportunities, with save opportunities the total of all saves and all blown saves.

aLI: Average leverage index, or the amount of pressure faced by a pitcher, with 1.0 indicating average pressure and values greater than 1.0 indicating high pressure.

IR: Career inherited runners. Number of runners on base when a pitcher entered the game.

IS: Career inherited runners scored. Number of a pitcher’s inherited runners who scored. Note that these runs are charged to the previous pitcher.

IS%: Career percentage of inherited runners who score while the pitcher is in the game.

SO%: Career strikeout percentage, or the percentage of all plate appearances that result in a strikeout.


The table below details the awards and leader statistics for the notable starting pitchers expected to appear on upcoming ballots, ranked by Black Ink Test. (See the legend beneath the table for starting pitchers above for category descriptions.)

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Relief Pitchers on Upcoming BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballots, Ranked by Black-Ink Test

Player

CYA

CYA Top 5

MVP Top 10

All-Star

Gold Glove

RoY

Black Ink

Gray Ink

Rodriguez, Francisco

0

3

1

6

0

0

10

29

Nathan, Joe

0

2

0

6

0

0

0

32

Papelbon, Jonathan

0

0

0

6

0

0

0

30


As with both position players and starting pitchers, these five tables help to illustrate the qualities of pitcher value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics and relief pitcher effectiveness), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber relief pitcher from other relievers. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.


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Last modified on Monday, 28 December 2020 04:58

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