Carlos Beltran Retires

Carlos Beltran Retires
13 Nov
2017
Not in Hall of Fame
A very significant (and expected) retirement took place today as Carlos Beltran of the Houston Astros announced today that he was calling it a career. Beltran is 40 years old, and played 20 years in the Majors, punctuated by a World Series win in his final game.

Let’s get right to what we usually talk about here at Notinhalloffame.com when a player of this magnitude retires; is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer?

Our first reaction is…maybe.

Beltran has very good traditional statistics. Nine All Star Games. 2,725 Hits. 435 Home Runs. There are a lot of Hall of Fame outfielders that have similar numbers and when you look at the advanced metrics, Beltran’s “on the fence” case is further enhanced. The native Puerto Rican has a career bWAR of 69.8, eight all-time at this position and higher than HOFers Duke Snider, Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn and Billy Hamilton. The average JAWS of a Hall of Fame Centerfielder is 57.9, of which he is close at 57.1, so this does look Cooperstown worthy, though Kenny Lofton has a comparable career bWAR and JAWS of 68.2 and 55.7 respectively and he failed to get past the first ballot.

What works against Beltran is that he was never really close to being the MVP in any year (his highest finish was 4th in 2006) and there was never a consensus that he was the best at this position.

Still, this is an excellent candidate who we will enjoy debating in depth over the next five years. Beltran will be Hall of Fame eligible in 2023.

We here at Notinhalloffame.com would like to thank Carlos Beltran for the on-field memories and we look forward to see what he will do next!
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Comments   

0 #1 Darryl Tahirali 2017-11-14 18:46
Beltran's Hall of Fame practically defines "bubble" with a black mark to balance every check mark. Solid if not eye-popping career stats but almost no "black ink" (league-leading stats in any category in any given year) and not enough "gray ink" (top ten finishes in any category in any given year). Rookie of the Year in 1999 but only two top ten finishes for Most Valuable Player in his career. Eight home runs hit in the 2004 postseason (NLDS and NLCS) but strikes out looking with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in Game Seven of the 2006 NLCS against the Cardinals with his team, the Mets, down by two runs, 3-1, but a single would probably tie the game and an extra-base hit might have won it. On the other hand, Beltran did win a World Series ring this year . . .

The comparison to Kenny Lofton is good, as his is largely a SABR case as well although Lofton is 15th in stolen bases and led the league in SB five seasons in a row while Beltran did quietly compile bigger counting stats.

But while Lofton was a one-and-done, Beltran might face an easier time of it: By 2023, the ballot logjam that plagued Lofton may have eased significantly, stat-head appreciation has grown and seems ready to continue doing so, and although Beltran played for seven teams in his career, that is still fewer than Lofton's eleven teams.

Beltran's Similarity Scores on Baseball Reference are also interesting. He is most similar to Andre Dawson, often considered a borderline pick, and then Billy Williams, again, not a no-doubt HoFer. On the other hand, next in line is Al Kaline, more of a consensus pick than either of those two . . .

An interesting debate in any case.
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