A very significant (and expected) retirement took place today as Carlos Beltran of the Houston Astros announced today that he was calling it a career. Beltran is 40 years old, and played 20 years in the Majors, punctuated by a World Series win in his final game.
Let’s get right to what we usually talk about here at Notinhalloffame.com when a player of this magnitude retires; is Carlos Beltran a Hall of Famer?
Our first reaction is…maybe.
Beltran has very good traditional statistics. Nine All Star Games. 2,725 Hits. 435 Home Runs. There are a lot of Hall of Fame outfielders that have similar numbers and when you look at the advanced metrics, Beltran’s “on the fence” case is further enhanced. The native Puerto Rican has a career bWAR of 69.8, eight all-time at this position and higher than HOFers Duke Snider, Andre Dawson, Richie Ashburn and Billy Hamilton. The average JAWS of a Hall of Fame Centerfielder is 57.9, of which he is close at 57.1, so this does look Cooperstown worthy, though Kenny Lofton has a comparable career bWAR and JAWS of 68.2 and 55.7 respectively and he failed to get past the first ballot.
What works against Beltran is that he was never really close to being the MVP in any year (his highest finish was 4th in 2006) and there was never a consensus that he was the best at this position.
Still, this is an excellent candidate who we will enjoy debating in depth over the next five years. Beltran will be Hall of Fame eligible in 2023.
We here at Notinhalloffame.com would like to thank Carlos Beltran for the on-field memories and we look forward to see what he will do next!