Every NFL season has its surprises, but the 2025 campaign delivered a familiar reminder: when quarterbacks rise or fall, everything else moves with them. 

Super Bowl betting markets didn’t swing because of weather, coaching quotes, or flashy free-agent signings. They shifted because a handful of quarterbacks either vanished, emerged, or fundamentally changed how their teams were perceived.

From sudden injuries that erased months of optimism to unexpected performances that turned long shots into contenders, this season’s Super Bowl picture was written almost entirely under center. 

Looking back, the common thread is clear. The teams that inspired belief or lost it did so because of the men touching the ball on every snap.

Joe Burrow and How Injury Rewrites a Team’s Ceiling

Few examples were more jarring than Joe Burrow’s season. Cincinnati opened the year as a credible contender, buoyed by Burrow’s track record and a roster built to win immediately. That optimism lasted less than two weeks.

A toe injury in Week 2 triggered one of the season’s steepest betting drops. The Bengals’ Super Bowl odds ballooned almost overnight, reflecting the uncomfortable truth sportsbooks already knew: without Burrow at full strength, Cincinnati’s margin for error disappeared.

Losses piled up. Confidence eroded. Eventually, the team was forced to trade for a veteran quarterback, a move that quietly confirmed what the market had already priced in. 

Burrow’s situation illustrated how fragile contender status can be when it rests almost entirely on one arm.

Patrick Mahomes and the Fragility of a Dynasty

Kansas City’s season told a different story, but fans, bettors, and analysts reached a similar conclusion. With Patrick Mahomes under center, the Chiefs were chasing history and priced accordingly. Even during uneven stretches, Mahomes’ presence kept Super Bowl expectations afloat.

That stability vanished in Week 15. A torn ACL didn’t just end Mahomes’ season; it effectively ended Kansas City’s championship conversation. Super Bowl odds tumbled, and single-game point spreads shifted dramatically, underscoring how irreplaceable Mahomes is to both his team and the betting market.

Dynasties feel permanent until they aren’t. This season reminded fans and bettors alike that even the league’s most reliable quarterback can’t ensure against sudden collapse. When that foundation cracks, betting markets react instantly, stripping away assumptions that once felt untouchable.

Sam Darnold and the Power of Unexpected Momentum

Not all market movement came from bad news. Sam Darnold’s season in Seattle offered the opposite lesson. The Seahawks entered the year as long shots, hovering on the fringe of relevance. One early-season win sparked a noticeable adjustment, and the market kept moving as Darnold continued to deliver efficient, mistake-lite football.

What made the shift notable wasn’t a single breakout performance, but the absence of volatility. Darnold’s consistency reduced uncertainty, and sportsbooks responded by steadily narrowing the gap between Seattle and the conference’s established contenders.

As Seattle climbed the standings, sportsbooks recalibrated weekly. Watching futures shift alongside Darnold’s steady play showed how quickly perception changes when performance proves repeatable. 

For fans tracking how quarterback momentum reshapes championship expectations, updated listings like FanDuel NFL odds reflected those shifts in near real time, mirroring Seattle’s rise from afterthought to legitimate threat.

Jordan Love and the Value of Steady Growth

Jordan Love didn’t produce a single moment that broke the betting market. Instead, his influence came through accumulation. Green Bay entered the season with cautious optimism, betting that Love’s development would continue.

It did. Gradually. Week by week, Love looked more comfortable, more decisive, and more capable of handling pressure. The Packers didn’t surge overnight, but confidence followed consistency. By late season, Green Bay was no longer framed as a feel-good story. They were discussed as a dangerous playoff team with real upside.

Markets reward reliability. Love’s season demonstrated how sustained quarterback growth can quietly reshape expectations without dramatic swings or headlines. By December, that steady progression translated into tangible belief rather than speculative optimism.

Daniel Jones and the Speed of Collapse

The Colts’ season showed how quickly the opposite can happen. Entering Week 14, Indianapolis sat among the Super Bowl’s top contenders. Momentum was real. Confidence felt earned.

Then Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. The response was immediate and unforgiving. Futures odds cratered as the team scrambled for stability. Backup struggles only reinforced the market’s skepticism, turning a promising season into a cautionary tale almost overnight.

Timing matters. Losing a quarterback late in the year leaves little room for recovery, and the Colts’ experience made that painfully clear. With postseason stakes rising, there was no runway left for the market to reconsider Indianapolis as a credible threat.

What These Quarterbacks Taught Us About Betting Markets

Taken together, these stories reveal a simple truth. Super Bowl odds are less about rosters and more about trust. Sportsbooks respond fastest to quarterback news because that’s where risk concentrates.

Several patterns stood out this season:

• Availability mattered as much as star power, 
• Late-season stability carried more weight than early hype, 
• Sustained performance shifted markets more reliably than isolated peaks. 

For fans digging deeper into how individual games feed those broader expectations, resources focused on weekly context, like NFL game matchups and prop insights, help explain why quarterback play remains the lens through which everything else is evaluated.

A Season Written Under Center

The 2025 NFL season didn’t hinge on schemes or slogans. It turned on health reports, development arcs, and moments when quarterbacks either answered or failed to answer the biggest questions. Burrow, Mahomes, Darnold, Love, and Jones each left a measurable imprint on the Super Bowl picture, not through theory, but through consequence.

Quarterbacks didn’t just lead teams this season. They reshaped belief. And in the modern NFL, belief is exactly what betting markets are built on. 

When that belief shifts, everything from expectations to championship odds moves with it.

 *Content reflects information available as of 05/01/2026; subject to change

1989 PRELIMINARY RESULTS:

Thank you to all who participated in the Pro Football Hall of Fame Revisited Project. If you are still determining what that is, we acted like the PFHOF had its first class in January 1946.

We have completed the first 42 years.

For “1989,” a Preliminary Vote with close to 100 players whose playing career ended by 1983. We also follow the structure in which players have 20 years of eligibility, and if they do not make it into the Hall, they are relegated to the Senior Pool.

Each voter was asked to select 25 names from the preliminary list, and the top 25 vote-getters were named Semi-Finalists.

A week later, the voters will be asked to select 15 names from the 25 Semi-Finalists and then choose five from the remaining 15. We will continue this process every week until we catch up to the current year.

Please note that a significant change occurred “years ago,” allowing voters to submit fewer than the allotted spots. 

31 Votes took place.

This is for the “Modern Era”

Bold indicates they advanced to the Semi-Finals:

*Indicates they have been removed from future ballots

This is for the Senior Era

Bold indicates they advanced to the Semi-Finals:

*Indicates that they will be removed from the ballot permanently. 

This is for the “Coaches/Contributors”

Bold indicates they advanced to the Semi-Finals:

*Indicates that they will be moved to the Senior Ballot.

**Indicates that they will be removed from the ballot permanently.

Next week, we will announce the Semi-Finalists for the 1989 Pro Football Hall of Fame Revisited Project.

Oh, what a happy day to be a Hall of Fame enthusiast!

The Pro Football Hall of Fame has announced its 15 Modern Semi-Finalists for the Class of 2026, down from a list of 26.

To qualify, a player must have retired less than 25 years ago and at least five years ago:

*Denotes they were a Finalist last year.

**Denotes they are eligible for the first time.

Quarterbacks (2): Philip Rivers did not advance.

**Drew Brees: SDG 2001-05 & NOR 2006-20.  After five years in San Diego, Brees ascended to superstar status in New Orleans.  Brees led the Saints to their first and only Super Bowl win, was a two-time Offensive Player of the Year, and was selected to 13 Pro Bowls.  He threw for 80,358 Yards and 571 Touchdowns.  Ranked #1 on notinhalloffame.com.  First Time as a Finalist.

*Eli Manning: NYG 2005-19.  Manning went to two Super Bowls and won them, as did the Super Bowl MVPs.  A four-time Pro Bowl and Walter Payton Man of the Year Award, Manning passed for 57,023 Yards and 366 Touchdowns.  Ranked #107 on notinhalloffame.com.  Second Time as a Finalist.

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

There is no surprise here, as Drew Brees should cruise into the Hall on his first attempt, and Eli Manning was also expected to advance.  Manning, who is in his second year of eligibility, likely won’t enter the PFHOF in ’26, but no worries, Giants fans; nobody (except Jim Tyrer, and we know why) was a first ballot Finalist and failed to enter Canton.

The wildcard was Rivers, who returned to the NFL with the Indianapolis Colts.  Assuming he will not return in 2026, Rivers now views his new year of eligibility as 2031. 

Running Backs (1): Fred Taylor did not advance.

**Frank Gore:  SFO 2005-14, IND 2015-17, MIA 2018, BUF 2019 & NYJ 2020.  Gore was a six-time Pro Bowl Selection, who amassed a whopping 16,000 Rushing Yards (third all-time), 19,985 APY, and 99 Touchdowns.  Ranked #19 on notinhalloffame.com.  First Time as a Finalist.  

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

We thought that Frank Gore’s appearance on the ballot would negatively impact Fred Taylor, and this is precisely what happened.  Gore has significantly more yardage than Taylor, and we have a rare occurrence of a multi-time Finalist (Taylor was a Finalist the last two years) failing to get through.  As for Gore, he is the ultimate compiler and was never a top-five Running Back (well, maybe once).  Gore’s Hall of Fame candidacy fascinates us.

Wide Receivers (3): (Steve Smith Sr. & Hines Ward did not advance)

**Larry Fitzgerald:  ARI 2004-20.  Fitzgerald had a stellar career, earning 11 Pro Bowls, one First Team All-Pro selection, and was named the 2016 Walter Payton Man of the Year.  Twice leading the league in Receptions as well as Touchdown Passes, Fitzgerald had 1,432 Receptions (Second all-time), 17,492 Yards (second all-time), and 121 Touchdowns (sixth all-time).   Ranked #2 on notinhalloffame.com.  First time as a Finalist.

*Torry Holt: STL 1999-2008 & JAX 2009.  A Super Bowl Champion with the St. Louis Rams, Holt went to seven Pro Bowls and led the NFL in Receiving Yards twice (2000 & 2003).  The one-time First Team All-Pro finished his career with 13,382 Yards and 74 TDs.  Holt has been a multi-time Finalist.  Ranked #9 on notinhalloffame.com.  Seventh time as a Semi-Finalist.

Reggie Wayne:  IND 2001-12.  Wayne was a career Colt, winning a Super Bowl there while earning six Pro Bowls and a First Team All-Pro.  He led the NFL in Receiving Yards in 2007 (1,510) and has significantly more Yards (14,345) than any other Preliminary candidate.  He also has 82 Touchdowns.  Ranked #23 on notinhalloffame.com.  Seventh time as a Finalist (2020-26).

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

The Wide Receiver slot has been log-jammed for years, and the arrival of Larry Fitzgerald (the second lock behind Brees) clearly pushed Steve Smith Sr. aside. 

Of note, Holt was among the last seven in the voting last season, ensuring he would be an automatic Finalist, but, as phenomenal as he was, his resume falls below Fitzgerald's.  Wayne, who, like Holt, is on his seventh Finalist ballot, also looks to be below Fitzgerald, and with the current process, it is difficult to see two Wide Receivers advancing.

Also, I predicted years ago that Hines Ward would go 20-for-20, meaning he would reach 20 Semi-Finals without advancing to the finals.  As Bon Jovi sang in “Living on a Prayer, “Whoa, we’re halfway there.”

Tight Ends (1): 

**Jason Witten:  2003-17 & 2019 & LVR 2020.  Witten went to a whopping 11 Pro Bowls, with two of those seasons netting him First Team All-Pros.  The 2012 Walter Payton Award winner had 13,046 Yards with 74 TDs.  Ranked #11 on notinhalloffame.com.  First time as a Finalist.

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

Jason Witten is a Pro Football Hall of Famer.  There is no doubt of that, and thankfully, he does not have to worry about Antonio Gates, who entered last year.  If he does not enter this year, Rob Gronkowski is on the horizon and will jump over (and should) Witten.  Witten will eventually enter Canton, but the current structure does him no favors in 2026.

Offensive Lineman (3): (Lomas Brown, Richmond Webb, and Steve Wisniewski did not advance)

*Willie Anderson (T):  CIN 1996-2007 & BAL 2008.  Anderson was chosen for four consecutive Pro Bowls (2003-06), with his last three being First Team All-Pro worthy.  Anderson has been a Finalist for the previous three years.  Ranked #101 on notinhalloffame.com.  Fifth time as a Finalist (2021-26).

*Jahri Evans (G):  NOR 2006-16 & GNB 2017.  Evans went to six consecutive Pro Bowls (2009-14) and was a First Team All-Pro in the first four.  He is also a Super Bowl Champion with the Saints.  Ranked #29 on notinhalloffame.com.  Third time as a Finalist (2021-26).

*Marshal Yanda (G):  BAL 2007-19. A Super Bowl Champion with Baltimore, Yanda went to eight Pro Bowls with two First Team and five Second Team All-Pros.  Ranked #4 on notinhalloffame.com.  Second time as a Finalist (2025-26).

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

I said when we looked at the Semi-Finalists that I would be thrilled if Wisniewski, Brown, and/or Webb got into that room to be discussed as a PFHOF Finalist, but I doubted that I would be delighted.  That is precisely what transpired, and for Wiz, this is the end of the modern pool, as he falls into the abyss of the senior pool.  Webb has only one year left, and both he and Wiz are Hall of Fame material; there is no doubt about that.

As for the rest, Anderson was guaranteed to be a Finalist based on last year’s top-seven finish, and Yanda and Evans are returnees.  Anderson appears to be atop the queue, and Evans and Yanda both debuted in their respective years as a Finalist, so it should be only a matter of time for those two Guards.  The O-Line looks to be as jammed as the WR slot.

Defensive Linemen: (1) (Robert Mathis and Vince Wilfork did not advance)

Kevin Williams (DT/DE):  MIN 2003-13, SEA 2014 & NOR 2015.  Williams had six Pro Bowls and five First Team All-Pros in a career spent mainly in Minnesota.  He recorded 63 Sacks and 113 Tackles for Loss.  Ranked #26 on notinhalloffame.com.  First time as a Finalist.

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

This is the biggest surprise for me.  It is not that they chose Kevin Williams; that should have happened long ago.  It is that they remembered him at all, after forgetting his existence over the first five years of his eligibility, and here he is, making his first Semi and Final.  He did so by leapfrogging two guys (Robert Mathis and Vince Wilfork), who, with all respect to those two stars, he should have been ahead of to begin with.

Yep, very happy on this one!

Linebackers: (2)

*Luke Kuechly: CAR 2012-19.   Kuechly was a strong contender to enter Canton on his first year of eligibility, as he is a former Defensive Rookie of the Year (2012) and Defensive Player of the Year in 2013.  A two-time leader in Combined Tackles, Kuechly was a seven-time Pro Bowl and five-time First Team All-Pro.  Ranked #3 on notinhalloffame.com.  Second time as a Finalist 2025-26.

*Terrell Suggs (Also DE):  BAL 2003-18, ARI 2019 & KAN 2019.  Suggs was the 2003 AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, and eight years later, he was the consensus Defensive Player of the Year.  He went to seven Pro Bowls, was a one-time First Team All-Pro, and compiled 139 Sacks, 202 Tackles for Loss, and 200 Quarterback Hits.  He was also a significant part of Baltimore’s second Super Bowl, and, as a veteran, he retired after winning a second one with Kansas City.  Ranked #10 on notinhalloffame.com.  Second time as a Finalist 2025-26.

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

Two Linebackers.  Two former Defensive Players of the Year winners.  Two players who easily could have entered on their first ballot.  Two players face the same struggle as last year based on the current process.   The main difference is that Kuechly was a guaranteed Finalist based on finishing in the top seven last year.

Defensive Backs: (1) (Rodney Harrison and Earl Thomas did not advance)

*Darren Woodson (S):  DAL 1992-03.  Woodson was part of the Cowboys’ three Super Bowl Titles in the early '90s, a five-time Pro Bowl, and a three-time First Team All-Pro.  He has been a Semi-Finalist multiple times before and has 23 career Interceptions with 11 Sacks and 967 Combined Tackles.  Ranked #65 on notinhalloffame.com.  Fourth time as a Semi-Finalist 2015, 2017, & 2019-26.

The Chairman’s gut reaction: 

Earl Thomas has the goods to be a Pro Football Hall of Fame inductee, and it is curious to see him drop off after being a Finalist in his first year of eligibility.  With Rodney Harrison also dropping off, this is a good ballot for Woodson, who is the only DB left.  We saw the Hall induct Eric Allen late in his eligibility, and Woodson is in his 18th year.

Place Kickers: (1)

*Adam Vinatieri: NWE 1996-2005 & IND 2006-19.  Entering his first year on the ballot, Vinatieri was a clutch performer who won four Super Bowls and was a three-time First Team All-Pro.  He is the all-time leader in Points Scored (2,673) and Field Goals Made (599). Ranked #88 on notinhalloffame.com.  Second time as a Semi-Finalist 2025-26.

Vinatieri was one of the last seven from last year and was grandfathered in as a guaranteed Finalist.

To enter the Pro Football Hall of Fame, these candidates must receive 80% of the vote, after it is pared down to seven candidates. 

In a separate vote, Senior candidates Ken Anderson, Roger Craig, and L.C. Greenwood, Coach candidate Bill Belichick, and Contributor candidate Robert Kraft will also have to receive 80% for enshrinement

The Class of 2026 will be inducted on August 8.

We here at Notinhalloffame.com would like to congratulate this group of Finalists.

P

The International Ice Hockey Federation has announced that seven new members will join its ranks as part of the Class of 2026.   It will include six players (Patrice Bergeron, Niklas Kronwall, Thomas Vanek, Cassie Campbell-Pascall, Florence Schelling, and Andres Ambuhl), a builder, Ralph Krueger.  The induction ceremony will take place on the final day of the 2026 IIHF World Championship in Zurich, Switzerland.

The new inductees are:

Patrice Bergeron (CAN).  Bergeron, who will likely be selected for the Hockey Hall of Fame next summer, is a member of the elite Triple Gold Club (Stanley Cup, Olympic Gold, and World Championship Gold).  Bergeron competed for Canada in seven tournaments and led them to six victories (2005 WJC, 2004 WC, 2010 & 2014 Olympics, 2012 Spengler Cup, and the 2016 World Cup of Hockey, scoring 43 Points over 47 Games in the red and white.

Niklas Kronwall (SWE).  Kronwall is also a member of the Triple Gold Club, winning a Stanley Cup with the Detroit Red Wings in 2008.  The Swedish Defenseman won Olympic Gold and a World Championship in 2006, and also has a 2014 Olympic Silver and 2003 World Championship Silver.  Kronwall appeared in 11 tournaments and scored 35 Points in 67 Games.

Thomas Vanek (AUT).  A veteran of 1,028 NHL Games, Vanek made history when, in 2013, he was named the Captain of the Buffalo Sabres, becoming the first Austrian to wear the “C”. Vanek was part of the Team Europe squad that won a Silver Medal in the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.  Representing Austria, Vanek played in the 2014 Olympics and competed in 44 Games over eight tournaments, while scoring 56 Points.

Cassie Campbell-Pascall (CAN).  Playing at Left Wing, Campbell helped bring Canada a death of Gold, winning two Olympic Gold medals (2002 & 2006), where she was the Captain, and six World Women’s Championships (1994, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001 & 2004).  Over ten major tournaments (Olympics and World Championship), Campbell scored 42 Points in 51 Games. 

Florence Schelling (SUI).  Unlike many European female hockey players, Schelling had a spectacular career in the American College ranks, where she captured a boatload of awards as Northeastern’s Goalie.  Representing Switzerland, Schelling holds the record for the most games played by any female netminder in World Championship history (44) and also has the wins record (21).  Her high-water mark was backstopping the Swiss team to a Bronze Medal win at the 2014 Olympics.

Andres Ambuhl (SUI).  Ambuhl holds the record for the most appearances (20) and games played (151) in the World Hockey Championships, and he propelled his team to three Silver Medals (2013, 2024 & 2025).  While representing Switzerland, Ambuhl appeared in three Olympic Games, 193 Games while scoring 91 Points.

Ralph Krueger (SUI).  From Germany, Krueger coached in North America and Europe, helmed Team Switzerland to three Olympic appearances, and was also the Head Coach of the Silver Medal-winning Team Europe squad at the 2016 World Cup of Hockey.

We here at notinhalloffame.com would like to congratulate the 2026 IIFF Class.