EVALUATING BASEBALL'S 2017 TODAY'S GAME ERA COMMITTEE BALLOT

Right Field Candidate: Harold Baines

Even though Harold Baines spent much of his career as a designated hitter, setting a number of records for DHs that have since been surpassed by the likes of Edgar Martinez and David Ortiz, Baines started 984 games as a right fielder with another 23 games in center field and seven in left field. Look up the term "professional hitter" in the baseball lexicon, and you will find a picture of Baines—as well as the evidence of his deficiencies as a fielder: He has a career minus-11 in fielding runs above average while his defensive WAR (dWAR) is minus-20.3, as much a reflection of the defensive penalty assessed to designated hitters as of his sub-standard fielding skills that kept him in the American League for his entire 22-year career.

The table below lists Baines along with seven notable right fielders whose careers began within five years of Baines's Major League debut in 1980 (in other words, between 1975 and 1985), ranked by bWAR, with other qualitative statistics, including fWAR, listed alongside it.

Contemporary Right Fielders and 2017 Right Field/Designated Hitter Candidate on the 2017 Today's Game Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Player	Slash Line	wOBA	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
(A) Gwynn, Tony	.338/.388/.459/.847	.370	68.8	65.0	132	132
Clark, Jack	.267/.379/.476/.854	.377	52.8	50.6	137	138
Canseco, Jose	.266/.353/.515/.867	.375	42.3	42.1	132	130
Strawberry, Darryl	.259/.357/.505/.862	.372	42.0	41.5	138	137
Barfield, Jesse	.256/.335/.466/.802	.353	39.3	39.0	117	117
O'Neill, Paul	.288/.363/.470/.833	.362	38.8	41.0	120	120
Baines, Harold	.289/.356/.465/.820	.358	38.5	38.4	121	119
Gibson, Kirk	.268/.352/.462/.815	.358	38.3	35.9	123	123

(A): Denotes player who is in the Hall of Fame.

The table below lists those seven contemporary right fielders along with Baines, ranked by JAWS, along with other JAWS statistics and ratings for the Hall of Fame Monitor and the Hall of Fame Standards. Also included are the JAWS statistics for all right fielders in the Hall of Fame.

Contemporary Right Fielders and 2017 Right Field/Designated Hitter Candidate on the 2017 Today's Game Ballot, Ranked by JAWS
Player	No. of Years	From	To	bWAR	WAR7	JAWS	JAWS Rank	HoF Mon. (≈100)	HoF Std. (≈50)
Ave. of 24 HoF RF	NA	NA	NA	73.2	43.0	58.1	NA	NA	NA
(A) Gwynn, Tony	20	1982	2001	68.8	41.1	54.9	14	279	54
Clark, Jack	18	1975	1992	52.8	31.3	42.1	28	28	35
Strawberry, Darryl	17	1983	1999	42.0	34.7	38.3	39	56	30
Barfield, Jesse	12	1981	1992	39.3	34.4	36.9	45	20	18
Canseco, Jose	17	1985	2001	42.3	29.6	35.9	50	103	39
Gibson, Kirk	17	1979	1995	38.3	29.8	34.0	56	16	22
O'Neill, Paul	17	1985	2001	38.8	27.3	33.1	59	71	37
Baines, Harold	22	1980	2001	38.5	21.3	29.9	70	66	44

(A): Denotes player who is in the Hall of Fame.

Among Harold Baines's contemporaries, only Tony Gwynn, inducted into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot in 2007, stands out—and even "The Round Mound of Batting Crowns" is about three wins below the average for all 24 of the Hall of Fame right fielders; of course, it is a position chock-full of some of the greatest hitters in baseball history, from Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron on down.

Otherwise, this is not an elite sample. So why is Harold Baines on the ballot? For one thing, he survived four BBWAA ballots, keeping just above the five percent minimum threshold, until he fell just short in 2011; none of the other seven right fielders ever made it to a second BBWAA ballot, with Jesse Barfield not ever making a BBWAA ballot. (Tony Gwynn, too, lasted on only one BBWAA ballot—of course, he collected 97.6 percent of the vote on the 2007 ballot as he sailed into the Hall of Fame on his first try.)

For another, Baines compiled big numbers during his 22-year career. He is 45th in hits with 2866, one of three players within the all-time top 50 who are eligible for the Hall of Fame but are not currently in the Hall; the other two are Rafael Palmeiro (3020 hits) and Barry Bonds (2935), and both have PED notoriety. Baines's other counting numbers that are within the top 100 all-time include 2830 games played (19th); 1628 runs batted in (32nd); 4604 total bases (41st); 921 extra-base hits (60th; tied with Bobby Abreu and Hall of Famer Goose Goslin); 384 home runs (65th); 488 doubles (72nd; tied with Hall of Famer Mel Ott and potential Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell); and 1062 walks (94th). Baines led the American League in slugging percentage in 1984 with .541, his only appearance atop a leaderboard. He was named to six All-Star teams, and finished among the top ten in MVP voting twice.

An excellent career—but Harold Baines is not a Hall of Famer. Perhaps Baines's inclusion on the ballot is a trial balloon for subsequent players whose careers were primarily as designated hitters, specifically, Edgar Martinez, should he fail to be elected on a BBWAA ballot—he has three more chances on a BBWAA ballot—and David Ortiz, who, should he not reverse his decision to retire after the 2016 season, would be eligible for a BBWAA ballot in 2022. Otherwise, Harold Baines's inclusion on the Today's Game ballot is a professional courtesy to a professional hitter who is not among baseball's elite.

Left Field Candidate: Albert Belle

Is Albert Belle the Dick Allen of his era? Like Allen, Belle was a contentious, sometimes controversial player who was often an offensive powerhouse; however, Belle's career was cut short by degenerative arthritis in his hip and forced him into retirement at age 34. His stormy relationship with the media may have cost him once he became eligible for the BBWAA ballot in 2006: Belle survived his first time with 7.7 percent of the vote, but lost more than half of that support the following year and fell off the ballot.

The table below lists Belle along with six notable left fielders whose careers began within five years of Belle's Major League debut in 1989 (in other words, between 1984 and 1994), ranked by bWAR, with other qualitative statistics, including fWAR, listed alongside it. Also included in the table is Lou Piniella, a left fielder who is not a contemporary of Belle and is on the Today's Game ballot primarily as a manager.

Contemporary Left Fielders and 2017 Left Fielder Candidate on the 2017 Today's Game Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Player	Slash Line	wOBA	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
(B) Bonds, Barry	.298/.444/.607/.1.051	.435	162.4	164.4	182	173
(C) Ramirez, Manny	.312/.411/.585/.996	.418	69.2	66.3	154	153
Gonzalez, Luis	.283/.367/.479/.845	.364	51.5	55.2	119	118
Belle, Albert	.295/.369/.564/.933	.396	39.9	41.0	144	139
Alou, Moisés	.303/.369/.516/.885	.378	39.7	47.7	128	129
Gant, Ron	.256/.336/.468/.803	.351	33.9	32.7	112	112
Vaughn, Greg	.242/.337/.470/.807	.350	30.7	25.5	113	111
* Piniella, Lou	.291/.333/.409/.741	.330	12.5	12.3	109	107

* On the Today's Game ballot primarily as a manager.
(B): Denotes player who is on the BBWAA ballot for 2017.
(C): Denotes player not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

The table below lists those six contemporary left fielders along with Belle, ranked by JAWS, along with other JAWS statistics and ratings for the Hall of Fame Monitor and the Hall of Fame Standards. Also included are the JAWS statistics for all right fielders in the Hall of Fame, as well as Lou Piniella, a left fielder who is not a contemporary of Belle and is on the Today's Game ballot primarily as a manager.

Contemporary Left Fielders and 2017 Left Fielder Candidate on the 2017 Today's Game Ballot, Ranked by JAWS
Player	No. of Years	From	To	bWAR	WAR7	JAWS	JAWS Rank	HoF Mon. (≈100)	HoF Std. (≈50)
(B) Bonds, Barry	22	1986	2007	162.4	72.7	117.6	1	340	76
(C) Ramirez, Manny	19	1993	2011	69.2	39.9	54.6	10	226	69
Ave. of 24 HoF RF	NA	NA	NA	65.1	41.5	53.3	NA	NA	NA
Gonzalez, Luis	19	1990	2008	51.5	33.8	42.7	24	103	48
Belle, Albert	12	1989	2000	39.9	35.9	37.9	38	135	36
Alou, Moisés	17	1990	2008	39.7	27.6	33.6	45	80	44
Gant, Ron	16	1987	2003	33.9	26.4	30.2	52	44	26
Vaughn, Greg	15	1989	2003	30.7	27.4	29.0	56	51	25
* Piniella, Lou	18	1964	1984	12.5	16.2	14.3	163	20	14

* On the Today's Game ballot primarily as a manager.
(B): Denotes player who is on the BBWAA ballot for 2017.
(C): Denotes player not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

Two of the left fielders above the JAWS threshold, Barry Bonds and Manny Ramirez, are among the elite hitters of their era—Bonds of course is simply off the charts. However, both have major issues with respect to PED, with Ramirez, who failed two drug tests following establishment of a new drug policy in 2006, almost certain to be blackballed when he first arrives on the 2017 BBWAA ballot. Albert Belle, while never associated with PED, nevertheless served a 10-day suspension in 1994 for having been caught using a corked bat—complete with an in-game caper to retrieve the bat before it was officially examined that involved pitcher Jason Grimsley, who was deeply mired in PED including a high-profile association with Roger Clemens.

Ranked by JAWS, Albert Belle is tucked between Luis Gonzalez and Moisés Alou in our sample, but Belle had the shortest career of any of them because of an early retirement caused by injury. Belle's first two years with the Cleveland Indians found him seeing limited service, but by 1991 he broke out, posting a .282/.323/.540/.863 slash line, generating a 134 OPS+, with 31 doubles, 28 home runs, and 95 runs batted in. Belle's slash line was down the following season, but he slammed 34 home runs and drove in 112 RBI, the first of eight consecutive years with 30 or more home runs and nine consecutive years with 100 or more runs driven in.

Indeed, Albert Belle was an unholy terror at the plate throughout the 1990s, largely with the Indians until the end of the 1996 season, and then two years each with, respectively, the Chicago White Sox and the Baltimore Orioles before retiring. During the decade, Belle produced a .298/.374/.571/.945 slash line, yielding a 146 OPS+, as he averaged, per year, 167 hits including 38 doubles and 37 home runs, 95 runs scored, and 120 runs batted in. He led the American League in RBI three times, including 148 in 1996, and in total bases and slugging percentage twice each while in 1995 he led the AL in six categories: runs scored (121), doubles (52), home runs (50), runs batted in (126), total bases (377), and slugging percentage (.690).

No batter in the Major Leagues, before or since, has ever hit at least 50 doubles and at least 50 home runs in a single season. Belle was the runner-up in AL MVP voting—a clear case of theft as the winner, Mo Vaughn of the Boston Red Sox, could match Belle in only one major category as both tied with 126 RBI. The voting was very close, with Vaughn just two percentage points ahead of Belle; retrospectively, bWAR bears out Belle's superiority as he was worth 6.9 wins to Vaughn's 4.3 wins.


Albert Belle hit like a monster in the 1990s. Is that enough to get him into the Hall of Fame?


Just how dominating a hitter was Albert Belle in the 1990s? Let's compare him to notable right-handed power-hitting batters who played in at least most of the 1990s, with "notable" being an arbitrary benchmark of at least 350 career home runs. (Belle slugged 381 round-trippers all told.) This sample of 15 gives us a mix of three batters already in the Hall of Fame, four batters on the current BBWAA ballot, and one batter, Mark McGwire, on this year's Today's Baseball ballot with Belle. Note that four batters are missing one season in the 1990s and one, Manny Ramirez, is missing two; he did not debut until 1993 with the Indians and remained Belle's teammate until 1996, when Belle signed as a free agent with the Chicago White Sox for the 1997 season.

The table below lists those 15 batters ranked by Offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR) along with other qualitative statistics for the 1991 to 2000 period.

Right-Handed Power Hitters (350 or more HR), 1991-2000, Ranked by oWAR
Player	Slash Line	OPS+	bWAR	oWAR	RAA	RAR
(A) Thomas, Frank	.320/.439/.581/.1.020	168	56.4	62.4	349	587
(B) Bagwell, Jeff	.305/.417/.552/.970	159	62.1	57.5	444	639
McGwire, Mark	.275/.421/.641/.1.062	178	44.9	48.2	308	472
(A) Piazza, Mike (9 yrs.)	.328/.392/.580/.972	156	46.6	48.1	344	487
Belle, Albert	.298/.374/.571/.945	146	40.0	46.0	183	419
(B) Sheffield, Gary	.298/.411/.543/.954	152	30.2	42.7	160	318
Gonzalez, Juan	.295/.345/.570/.915	135	31.3	36.7	113	322
(C) Ramirez, Manny (8 yrs.)	.313/.407/.592/.998	152	29.9	33.6	165	317
Burks, Ellis	.294/.371/.531/.901	127	27.2	30.0	142	290
(A) Ripken, Cal	.280/.339/.446/.785	106	38.6	29.8	171	392
Williams, Matt	.278/.326/.505/.831	119	36.4	29.1	202	371
(B) Kent, Jeff (9 yrs.)	.284/.348/.493/.841	121	29.5	29.0	160	312
(B) Sosa, Sammy	.277/.339/.540/.879	128	39.3	28.2	234	410
Galarraga, Andres (9 yrs.)	.299/.357/.540/.897	123	19.4	21.6	61	211
Davis, Chili (9 yrs.)	.283/.382/.486/.868	128	17.9	18.0	9	183

(A): Denotes player who is in the Hall of Fame.
(B): Denotes player who is on the BBWAA ballot for 2017.
(C): Denotes player not yet eligible for the Hall of Fame.

oWAR: Wins Above Replacement for offensive play only, as calculated by Baseball Reference.
RAA: Runs Above Average as calculated by Baseball Reference.
RAR: Runs Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

In terms of offensive value, Albert Belle's 46.0 wins above a replacement player is fifth in our sample, behind two Hall of Famers, Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza; one hitter, Jeff Bagwell, on the threshold of election in 2017; and McGwire, who like Belle is getting his second chance on the Today's Game ballot. Gary Sheffield, on the BBWAA ballot for 2017, is the only other hitter with at least a 40.0 oWAR.

At least among right-handed power-hitters, Albert Belle was clearly an elite slugger in the 1990s—one of the best, in fact. But does this span of dominance give him a commanding enough peak to overcome a relatively short career as shown by his modest WAR values?

Let's see how Belle compares to players with similar career lengths who have made it into the Hall of Fame. The following tables contain players whose careers spanned at least 10 years, the minimum MLB service time required to qualify for Hall of Fame consideration, and are generally close to Belle's 12 years as a Major Leaguer. Most of the players are in the Hall of Fame, elected either by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) or by the various Veterans Committees that have existed over the decades.

Items to note are that the careers of these players range across various eras of baseball starting with the modern game in 1901, and that all eight fielding positions are represented. Both points have an impact on the various applications of WAR used below: Players in earlier eras will look "better" because the comparative talent pools (that is, the pool of replacement players) are not as strong as in later eras, and because WAR incorporates the player's defensive position and abilities, players at the strength positions up the middle (catcher, second base, shortstop, center field) have an advantage over those players at the non-strength positions (first base, third base, corner outfield).

The table below lists the players ranked by Offensive Wins Above Replacement along with other qualitative offensive measurements.

Short-Career Hall of Fame Position Players and Selected Others, Ranked by oWAR
Player	Slash Line	OPS+	bWAR	oWAR	RAA	RAR
(1) DiMaggio, Joe	.325/.398/.579/.977	155	78.1	73.3	571	815
(2) Vaughan, Arky	.318/.406/.453/.859	136	72.9	70.9	473	718
Allen, Dick	.292/.378/.534/.912	156	58.7	69.9	287	541
McGwire, Mark	.263/.394/.588/.982	163	62.0	64.8	379	644
(x) Jackson, Joe	.356/.423/.517/.940	170	62.3	61.2	380	592
(2) Baker, Frank	.307/.363/.442/.805	135	62.8	59.2	337	582
(1) Greenberg, Hank	.313/.412/.605/.1.017	158	57.5	55.9	393	607
(1) Robinson, Jackie	.311/.409/.474/.883	132	61.5	54.2	397	616
(1) Kiner, Ralph	.279/.398/.548./946	149	49.3	54.1	261	495
(2) Sewell, Joe	.312/.391/.413/.804	108	53.7	53.8	241	550
(1) Puckett, Kirby	.318/.360/.477/.837	124	50.9	52.4	239	510
(1) Cochrane, Mickey	.320/.419/.478/.897	129	52.1	52.2	320	550
(2) Averill, Earl	.318/.395/.534/.928	133	48.0	51.0	255	517
(2) Doby, Larry	.283/.386/.490/.876	136	49.5	47.8	305	495
(1) Terry, Bill	.341/.393/.506/.899	136	54.2	47.3	334	550
Belle, Albert	.295/.369/.564/.933	144	39.9	45.8	173	419
(2) Wilson, Hack	.307/.395/.545/.940	144	38.8	42.5	235	404
(2) Combs, Earle	.325/.397/.462/.859	125	42.5	41.8	211	443
(2) Gordon, Joe	.268/.357/.466/.822	120	57.1	41.4	364	570
Maris, Roger	.260/.345/.476/.822	127	38.2	34.3	200	382
(1) Campanella, Roy	.276/.360/..500/.860	123	34.2	33.8	169	352
(2) Hafey, Chick	.317/.372/.526/.898	133	30.1	31.3	148	306
(2) Rizzuto, Phil	.273/.351/.355/.706	93	40.8	28.3	205	405
* Johnson, Davey	.261/.340/.404/.744	110	27.5	26.9	92	275

(1): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.
(2): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee.
(x) Denotes player ineligible for the Hall of Fame.
* On the Today's Game ballot primarily as a manager.

Albert Belle, an offensive powerhouse for most of his career, still winds up in the bottom half of our sample of mostly players with relatively short careers who are in the Hall of Fame, who would be Belle's peers should he be elected to the Hall.

But is this a failing of Belle's, or a reflection of his era? After all, WAR entails a replacement player, hypothetically, a player coming up from the minors to take the Major Leaguer's place. Like today's era, Belle's era was one of talent compression, or many excellent players in the overall pool of talent, as opposed to talent dispersion, or a few excellent players among a pool of average or mediocre players.

But during his run, Belle was consistently at or near the top of the heap. So, given Belle's power-hitting forte, not just home runs but doubles as well, how does he stack up against our sample of short-career Hall of Famers and a few others?

The table below lists the players ranked by extra-base hits along with other quantitative offensive measurements.

Short-Career Hall of Fame Position Players and Selected Others, Ranked by Extra-Base Hits
Player	GP	PA	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	TB	XBH
(1) DiMaggio, Joe	1736	7672	2214	389	361	1390	1537	3948	881
McGwire, Mark	1874	7660	1626	252	583	1167	1414	3639	841
Belle, Albert	1539	6676	1726	389	381	974	1239	3300	791
(1) Greenberg, Hank	1394	6098	1628	379	331	1046	1274	3142	781
(2) Averill, Earl	1669	7221	2019	401	238	1224	1164	3390	767
Allen, Dick	1749	7315	1848	320	351	1099	1119	3379	750
(1) Puckett, Kirby	1783	7831	2304	414	207	1071	1085	3453	678
(1) Terry, Bill	1721	7108	2193	373	154	1120	1078	3252	639
(1) Kiner, Ralph	1472	6256	1451	216	369	971	1015	2852	624
(2) Vaughan, Arky	1817	7722	2103	356	96	1173	926	3003	580
(2) Wilson, Hack	1348	5556	1461	266	244	884	1063	2593	577
(2) Hafey, Chick	1283	5115	1466	341	67	164	777	833	572
(2) Gordon, Joe	1566	6535	1530	264	253	914	975	2657	569
(2) Sewell, Joe	1903	8333	2226	436	49	1141	1054	2945	553
(2) Doby, Larry	1533	6299	1515	243	52	253	970	960	548
(x) Jackson, Joe	1332	5695	1772	307	54	873	785	2577	529
(2) Combs, Earle	1455	6513	1186	154	58	1186	633	2657	521
(1) Cochrane, Mickey	1482	6208	1652	333	119	1041	830	2470	516
(2) Baker, Frank	1575	6667	1838	315	96	887	991	2647	514
Maris, Roger	1463	5847	1325	195	275	826	850	2429	512
(1) Robinson, Jackie	1382	5804	1518	273	54	137	947	734	464
(1) Campanella, Roy	1215	4815	1161	178	242	627	856	2101	438
* Johnson, Davey	1435	5465	1252	242	136	564	609	1938	396
(2) Rizzuto, Phil	1661	5816	1588	239	38	877	563	2065	339

In terms of extra-base hits, Belle again ranks highly when compared to short-career Hall of Famers and those in consideration for the Hall. Belle is one of only six hitters in our sample with 700 or more extra-base hits, with Belle just nine extra-base hits shy of 800. It is worth noting that the 1994 season was a strike-shortened season, and Belle would have only added to his already-impressive season totals of 35 doubles, 36 home runs, and 101 RBI had it been a full season; Belle played in 106 games of the 113 total games the Cleveland Indians played before the work stoppage.

Albert Belle is clearly a poster child for the "bubble candidate," a Hall of Fame candidate whose résumé is not definitive enough to gain entry to the Hall without deliberation yet too substantial simply to be dismissed. Let's examine Belle in relation to a pair of Hall of Famers, Ralph Kiner and Hack Wilson, along with Dick Allen, most recently on the last Golden Era ballot in 2015, on which he fell one vote shy of election.

We will look at each player's decade of dominance, the ten consecutive years in which they had their greatest impact; in Dick Allen's case, we will examine the years 1964 to 1974 while omitting the 1973 season, in which he played in just 72 games because of injury. The table below lists these four right-handed sluggers by Offensive Wins Above Replacement (oWAR) along with other qualitative statistics for their ten-year periods.

Ten-Year Peak for Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Ralph Kiner, and Hack Wilson, Ranked by oWAR
Player	Slash Line	OPS+	bWAR	oWAR	RAA	RAR
Allen, Dick	.298/.385/.551/.936	165	55.4	65.3	296	505
(1) Kiner, Ralph	.279/.398/.548/.946	149	49.3	54.1	261	495
Belle, Albert	.298/.374/.571/.945	146	40.0	46.0	183	419
(2) Wilson, Hack	.310/.396/.553/.949	146	38.1	41.9	235	397

(1): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.
(2): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee.

What is noteworthy in the table above are the similarities in the four sluggers' slash lines, particularly their OPS percentages, which are within thirteen-hundredths of a percentage point of each other. Their OPS+ values reflect the quality of their respective competition: Both Belle and Wilson played in eras of high offensive production, the 1920s and 1990s, respectively, while Kiner's stretch from the mid-1940s to the mid-1950s was less so, and Allen's period, particularly the first half, was in the 1960s and a pitching-dominated era.

This may also account for the relative values of the other qualitative measures. The metrics that evaluate the player's value over a replacement player—bWAR, oWAR, RAA, and RAR—suggest the talent pool of each player's era—the more outstanding players there are available, the less the replacement value they provide. We compared Belle to several right-handed hitters from the 1990s, and while Belle was often among the top ranks, he was not an uncontrovertibly elite slugger—and we compared only right-handed hitters.

In terms of generating extra-base hits, Belle was indisputably impressive, so let's see how he compares to our current sample.

The table below lists these four right-handed sluggers ranked by the total number of extra-base hits they hit along with other quantitative offensive statistics.

Ten-Year Peak for Dick Allen, Albert Belle, Ralph Kiner, and Hack Wilson, Ranked by Extra-Base Hits
Player	GP	PA	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	TB	XBH
Belle, Albert	1468	6417	1673	381	373	951	1199	3207	771
Allen, Dick	1409	5982	1544	257	303	929	934	2852	631
(1) Kiner, Ralph	1472	6256	1451	216	369	971	1015	2852	624
(2) Wilson, Hack	1271	5311	1412	261	238	860	1033	2521	566

(1): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.
(2): Denotes player who was elected to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee.

Belle's ability to hit for extra bases is remarkable even—perhaps especially—in this small sample. Belle's 771 total extra-base hits outdistances the other three by a huge margin, and while he just eclipses Kiner in home runs, Belle's 381 doubles stand well apart from the others. In addition, Belle fell just one RBI shy of 1200 in this ten-year period, and while runs batted in is a team-dependent statistic—Belle did play on a Murderers Row of sorts at least in Cleveland—it is nevertheless another gaudy statistic in his favor.

We have gone the distance here to make the Hall of Fame case for Albert Belle, who lasted two years on a BBWAA ballot before disappearing, only to reappear this year on the Today's Game ballot. Unlike Will Clark and even Harold Reynolds, Belle has sufficient weight in counting numbers, qualitative measures, and especially peak dominance to merit serious consideration.

For the final comparison, I chose Dick Allen, Ralph Kiner, and to a lesser extent Hack Wilson because they seemed to be a prime bubble candidate from their era. I added Wilson because at least in looking at his WAR scores next to Belle made me wonder if Belle is the Hack Wilson of his era: Belle remains the only hitter to hit at least 50 doubles and at least 50 home runs in the same season and should have been the American League Most Valuable Player in 1995; in 1930. Wilson hit 56 home runs, which remained the National League single-season record until Mark McGwire hit 70 home runs and Sammy Sosa hit 66 home runs 68 years later, and drove in 191 runs, which remains the all-time single-season record for RBI.

Hack Wilson appeared on 15 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballots between 1937 and 1962 (voting, particularly during World War Two, was not always annual) but he never collected more than 38.3 percent of the vote; that was in 1956, eight years after Wilson had died at age 48. However, Wilson was elected to the Hall of Fame in 1979 by the Veterans Committee.

As for the other two hitters in our final sample, Ralph Kiner was elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA—although that was literally by the skin of his teeth: Kiner received one vote over the minimum required for the 75-percent qualification in his 15th and final year of eligibility in 1975. Keep in mind that Kiner was the premier slugger in the National League for much of his ten-year career: He led the NL in home runs for his first seven years, slamming 50 or more twice, in 1947 (51) and 1949 (54), and for the five-year period between 1947 and 1951 the Pittsburgh Pirates slugger crushed a total of 234 long balls over the fence, an average of 47 per year. He also drove in at least 100 runs during that time, averaging 121 RBI per season as he was in the top ten of NL MVP voting every year.

Then there is Dick Allen. Allen appeared on 14 BBWAA ballots over 15 years—he garnered just 3.7 percent of the vote in 1983, but was returned to the ballot in 1985, where he gathered just enough support, peaking at 18.9 percent in 1995, his penultimate year, to remain on the ballot. The 1964 National League Rookie of the Year and 1972 American League Most Valuable Player began his playing career during the tumultuous 1960s, and as an African-American Allen caught a fair dose of the racial divisiveness emblematic of the time, which has contributed to the perception that Allen was himself divisive and contentious, a charged leveled against Albert Belle although Belle did not have the same social upheaval to contend with in the 1990s.

As a player, though, Allen was an impressive offensive force, even more so considering that he played the first half of his career in an offensively-challenged period, one considered a "Golden Era" for pitching but one in which Boston Red Sox outfielder Carl Yastrzemski could lead the AL in 1968 with a .301 batting average—the only qualified hitter to bat .300 or higher. Yet Allen, the seven-time All-Star, managed to post a career OPS+ of 156, tied for 21st all-time with Willie Mays and Frank Thomas, both elected to the Hall of Fame in their first year of eligibility.

I will admit that when I did my ballot assessment of the Golden Era for 2015, I stated that Dick Allen was the best candidate on the ballot, but that he fell just short of the Hall of Fame. In looking at the comparisons to Albert Belle here, I realize that I was wrong: Dick Allen, compared to various short-career Hall of Famers, deserves to be in the Hall of Fame with them, and in fact he looks stronger than some of them. Like Belle, Allen is another bubble poster boy, helping to define in some measure what the threshold for admittance may be, even if only for his era.

Which makes Albert Belle's case so taxing: He clearly slugged the hell out of the ball during the 1990s—we've seen how he has topped or has come close to topping the list for extra-base hits—but so did a lot of hitters during that high-offense period. Was Belle that much better than his contemporaries? Among the 15 right-handed power-hitters we profiled for the 1990s, Belle's OPS+ of 146 is seventh, about in the middle. Among the 24 short-career players, many of whom are in the Hall of Fame, Belle's 144 OPS+ is tied for seventh, comfortably in the upper third. If ever a player was made for the Keltner List, it may be Belle, who may look like a Hall of Famer but who may not feel like one.

I feel as if I may be eating my words once more in a couple of years, but rather than looking like Dick Allen or Ralph Kiner, Albert Belle looks more like the Hack Wilson of his era; again appropriately enough, both Belle and Wilson are tied for 49th all-time in OPS+ with 144. Wilson may be in the Hall of Fame, but his was a gratuitous election. Despite all those extra-base hits, Albert Belle's would be too, although ask me again in couple of years.