PITCHING WINS: A TICKET TO THE BASEBALL HALL OF FAME?

With 8 seasons in which he notched at least 15 victories while posting double-digit losses in only 3 of his 15 seasons, right-hander Tim Hudson has earned his reputation as a winning pitcher. That started with his stint as one of the "Big Three," along with lefties Mark Mulder and Barry Zito, of the Oakland Athletics from 1999 to 2004 before being traded to the Atlanta Braves, with whom he has garnered 113 of his 205 career wins. Yet Hudson has pitched for mostly winning teams for his entire career, and while it can be argued that his performance is one of the factors as to why the team was a winner, he has always enjoyed run support around the league average; only in 2009 did he get run support of 3.6 runs per innings pitched, against the league average of 5.0 runs, although Hudson pitched only 42.1 innings in 7 starts in 2009 as he was still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he had undergone near the end of the previous season.

Hudson has always been an excellent pitcher, with 274 of his 426 career starts being quality starts (64 percent). Recall that a quality start requires a pitcher to pitch at least six innings while surrendering three or fewer earned runs. In Hudson's career, he has allowed only 94 unearned runs more than earned runs, 1077 of his 1171 total runs allowed are earned runs. (An unearned run is a run that scores as a result of a defensive error at some point during an inning.)

As a sinkerball pitcher with 1896 strikeouts in 2813.2 innings pitched, a ratio of 16.2 percent, Hudson has relied on his defense to help him get outs, particularly his infielders—indeed, his ground-out-to-air-out ratio of 2.01 is nearly twice the MLB average of 1.08. Yet for a ground-ball pitcher to have been charged with only 94 unearned runs in more than 2800 innings is remarkable. Hudson's career ERA is 3.44, and his FIP, or fielding-independent pitching ERA, is 3.77, indicating that without defensive help, his ERA would be higher. (FIP measures the factors a pitcher can control—walks, strikeouts, home runs—against league-average ERA and FIP.) Over his career, Hudson has averaged 2.7 walks per nine innings pitched and 0.7 home runs per nine innings pitched, both relatively low ratios, and his 3.77 FIP is above-average but not exceptional. Furthermore, Hudson's lifetime average leverage index, or the measurement of the overall pressure he faced while pitching, is 0.98, with average pressured measured at 1.00, meaning that he was not unduly pressured by the offenses he faced over the course of his career.

Tim Hudson finished in the top five in Cy Young voting three times (he was sixth in 2001), with his best showing a runner-up finish in 2000. However, Hudson has hardly been robbed of the award in any of those years; in 2000, he placed second to Pedro Martinez, who had had a phenomenal year: for instance, Martinez's ERA was 1.74—none of the other six candidates posted an ERA under 3.00, and three, including Hudson, had ERAs over 4.00. Hudson attained a seasonal bWAR of 5.0 or higher, considered to be at an All-Star level, only three times; coincidentally, he has been selected to three All-Star teams, although in the same year in which his bWAR was at the All-Star level only once, in 2010.

Pitching for teams that scored runs for him and played well defensively behind him, Tim Hudson has reached the 200-win plateau, which as we have seen is an exceptional honor for a pitcher in the contemporary era. But as we have also seen, wins are a team-dependent statistic and do not accurately reflect the effectiveness of the pitcher individually. Hudson is an excellent pitcher—he has amassed a career bWAR of 55.5 and ERA+ of 124—but he has never shown that he is a dominating or elite pitcher. He has led the league in starts twice, indicating durability, and he led the league in wins and winning percentage in 2000, his only 20-game season, and one in which he was runner-up in American League Cy Young voting. His 2000 win-loss record was 20–6 (.769) while AL Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez posted an 18–6 (.750) record; however, Hudson's ERA was 4.14, translating to an ERA+ of only 113 and bWAR of 4.0—by contrast, Martinez's ERA was 1.74, which translated to an unearthly ERA+ of 291 (by this measurement, he was nearly three times better than the average AL pitcher) and bWAR of 11.7.

Tim Hudson might recover from his 2013 season-ending ankle surgery to pitch a couple more seasons, and depending on his effectiveness he could then add to his counting numbers. He would need three 15-win seasons to reach 250 career wins, which is not inconceivable, but neither is it likely given that he is a) returning from surgery, b) in his late-30s, and c) playing in a period of high talent compression with many young arms competing for his slot in the rotation. Again, though, as we have been examining, wins in and of themselves are not an accurate indicator of pitching greatness. Thus, Tim Hudson's Hall of Fame legacy is already established, and he falls short of the greatness required of a Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher.

A few years younger than Halladay, Hudson, or Pettitte, CC Sabathia has already posted a promising record as he reached the 200-win mark this season. In fact, with eight seasons with at least 15 wins, including one with 21 wins and three with 19 wins, the big left-hander has never posted a losing full season—although he has experienced a swoon this season as his velocity has dropped, resulting in several ineffective and disappointing starts. Whether this indicates difficulties generated by his return from elbow surgery last year, a coincidental off-year, or, in his age-32 season, a notable decline as he struggles to stay afloat in an environment of high talent compression, remains to be seen.

Up until 2013, though, Sabathia was the very definition of a workhorse. In his first year in the majors, he posted for the Cleveland Indians a 17–5 record (.773) with a 4.39 ERA in 33 starts and 180.1 innings, finishing second behind the Seattle Mariners' Ichiro Suzuki for American League Rookie of the Year honors. He went on to demonstrate his durability for the first 12 years of his career: From 2001 to 2012, Sabathia has averaged, per season, 32 starts in 214 innings pitched with three complete games and one shutout while exhibiting both dominance and command with 184 strikeouts against only 64 bases on balls for an excellent 2.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He has notched nine season with 150 or more strikeouts and three seasons with 200 or more (and has fallen three shy of 200 in back-to-back seasons, in 2009 and 2010). Sabathia's qualitative stats over this period, per season, are a 3.50 ERA, a 125 ERA+, and a 4.5 bWAR. He won the AL Cy Young Award in 2007 with a 19–7 record (.731); 3.21 ERA, 141 ERA+, and 6.3 bWAR; and four complete games, one shutout, and 209 strikeouts in 241 innings pitched—which, against only 37 walks, yielded an eye-popping major-league leading 5.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio—and although Sabathia garnered a substantial number of votes, that year was a toss-up among Josh Beckett, Erik Bedard, John Lackey, and Sabathia's teammate Roberto Hernandez.

Following his Cy Young season, Sabathia was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers in the middle of 2008 as Cleveland went on to have a dead .500 season but the Brewers secured the National League wild-card slot. Sabathia made an auspicious impression in the NL as in 17 starts for the Brewers, he went 11–2 (.846) with a 1.65 ERA, a 255 ERA+, and a 4.9 bWAR while striking out 128 in 130.2 innings against only 25 walks for a remarkable 5.12 strikeout-to-walk ratio. With both Cleveland and Milwaukee, Sabathia pitched 10 complete games, leading the NL with seven, while with five shutouts, two for the Indians and three for the Brewers, he managed to lead both leagues in shutouts in 2008. But although Sabathia helped the Brewers get to the postseason, he was disappointing in his only start in the NL Division Series against the Philadelphia Phillies, giving up six hits and five earned runs while walking four in only 3.2 innings as the Brewers lost the series; the Phillies went on to win the World Series for the first time since 1980.

In 2009, Sabathia signed as a free agent with the New York Yankees, and in the majors' toughest division, the American League East, he had been outstanding until this season, leading the AL in wins twice while finishing in the top five for Cy Young voting his first three seasons with the Yankees. Sabathia earned a World Series ring in 2009 as his Yankees defeated the defending-champion Phillies, with the burly southpaw pitching better against the Phillies than his record might indicate—in two starts against Philadelphia, his record was only 0–1 but he pitched 13.2 innings, allowing 11 hits and 5 earned runs (3.29 ERA) while fanning 12—although he was sparkling in both the American League Divisional and Championship Series: In the former, he beat the Minnesota Twins in his only start, allowing one earned run in 6.2 innings (1.35 ERA) while striking out eight; in the latter, he beat the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim twice, allowing just nine hits and two earned runs over 16 innings (1.13 ERA) while fanning 12.

Yet apart from a brilliant performance against the Baltimore Orioles in the 2012 Divisional Series—in two starts, Sabathia won both games, coming one out shy of pitching a complete-game victory in Game One while getting the complete-game victory in the clinching Game Five, posting a 1.53 ERA while striking out 16 against only three walks in 17.2 innings—Sabathia's subsequent postseason performance has been middling at best. In last year's AL Championship Series against the Detroit Tigers, Sabathia lasted only 3.2 innings in his Game Four start, coughing up 11 hits, two home runs, and six runs, five earned, as the Yankees looked dismal overall.

Throughout his career, CC Sabathia has enjoyed run support of about a half-run better than the major league average: In runs support per games started, Sabathia has received 5.1 runs per game against the 4.6 MLB average, and in runs support per innings pitched, he has gotten 5.0 runs per game against the 4.6 MLB average. In nearly 13 seasons, he has had just 30 tough losses against only 25 cheap wins while his wins-lost total of 32 (games in which he was in line for the win when he left the game but his bullpen lost that lead) is balanced by his losses-saved total of 34 (games in which he left while his team was behind but in which his team subsequently rallied to at least tie the score). In addition to the support he has received from his team, Sabathia has a career average leverage index of 0.99 (average leverage index measures the pressure a pitcher faces, with an index of 1.00 indicating average pressure), signaling that Sabathia has enjoyed relatively comfortable environments when he pitches, with offensive and fielding support aiding his chances to win.

Sabathia has been named to six All-Star squads, but curiously he has pitched in only two of those games, with each appearance lasting one inning; in 2004, he gave up four hits and three earned runs, while in his 2007 appearance he allowed only one hit. The All-Star Game is an exhibition game, so a player's performance shouldn't be indicative of his career, but it is instructive that Sabathia has only three seasons in which his bWAR was at or above the All-Star level of 5.0 wins above replacement player per season—his 2007 Cy Young year (6.3), 2009 (6.2), and 2011 (7.5). In 2008, he did generate 1.9 bWAR with the Indians and 4.9 bWAR with the Brewers, although his performance with the Indians before he was traded, after the All-Star Game, was hardly All-Star quality.

To date, Sabathia has generated a career bWAR of 54.0 and an ERA+ of 122. Perhaps his less-than-stellar 2013 season is an aberration and he might recover from it, or perhaps it is an indication of his declining skills and effectiveness. As the youngest of the active pitchers we have examined so far, CC Sabathia could have significant chapters of his career yet to be written. However, at this point, he has been a strong, though not dominating, starting pitcher whose Hall of Fame credentials are anything but convincing.

Pitchers' Profiles: Other Active Pitchers

Two active pitchers are within 20 wins of 200 total wins for their careers. Bartolo Colón, who won the 2005 American League Cy Young Award while with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, is currently at 185 wins and in his age-40 season Colón is enjoying a stellar 14–3 (.824), 2.50 ERA season with the Oakland Athletics. Following his Cy Young year, Colón missed a lot of baseball because of injuries and "personal matters" he attended to in his native Dominican Republic; he missed the entire 2010 season. Had it not been for that, the big right-hander might already be at 200 career wins—between 1998 and 2005, he won 135 games against only 75 losses for a .643 winning percentage—and we might be considering Colón for Hall of Fame enshrinement.

However, performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs) will dog Colón for some years to come. Last year, he was suspended for 50 games for testing positive for synthetic testosterone, and he is among the high-profile names, along with Ryan Braun and Alex Rodriguez, associated with the ongoing Biogenesis of America scandal. Not that Colón has much of a Hall of Fame case at any rate, but the suspension expected to be levied against him (as of this writing), and both this stigma and his age make further employment in the major leagues fairly unlikely.

Four wins behind and six years younger than Colón, Mark Buehrle seems to be a sure bet to reach 200 wins even if he is currently having a middling season in his first year with the disappointing Toronto Blue Jays. The big left-hander is another workhorse, averaging 33 starts and 219 innings pitched in the twelve full seasons since 2001, when he became a full-time starter for the Chicago White Sox until he signed as a free agent with the Miami Marlins in 2012; in this period, his win totals have been in double digits every year, reaching a high of 19 in 2002—he has, however, been in double digits in losses in 8 of those 12 years. For his career so far, Buehrle owns a 181–139 win-loss record (.566) with a 3.84 ERA, a 118 ERA+, and 54.2 bWAR.

Buehrle won a World Series ring in 2005 with the White Sox, who swept the Houston Astros—he pitched a no-decision in Game Two and picked up the save in the 14-inning Game Three—and he has pitched two no-hitters, one of them a perfect game in 2009, all the more remarkable as Buehrle is a pitch-to-contact pitcher who has managed more than 150 strikeouts only once, in 2004 (165). Not surprisingly, the southpaw has allowed 126 unearned runs in his career while he is the active career leader in home runs allowed with 316 (coincidentally, Colón is next with 304). Yet Buehrle holds the major league record for most consecutive batters retired with 45 in a row, and is the only pitcher to win multiple Gold Gloves while throwing multiple no-hitters.

Already in his age-34 season, Mark Buehrle is likely to reach 200 wins before he retires, provided he can stay healthy and not have his skills deteriorate too significantly. Whether that will help his Hall of Fame case remains to be seen although based on the evidence so far, he does not seem to be a likely candidate.

Among remaining pitchers with less than 200 wins, Derek Lowe retired this season with 176 career wins while five pitchers with at least 140 wins—Barry Zito (164), Roy Oswalt (163), Freddy Garcia (155), Chris Carpenter (144), and A.J. Burnett (141)—are in their age-35 or older season this year. Several pitchers in the age-31-to-age-34 range have between 120 and 139 wins: Johan Santana (139), Jon Garland (136), John Lackey (135), Cliff Lee (135), Josh Beckett (132), Carlos Zambrano (132), Jake Peavy (129), Dan Haren (125), Kyle Lohse (125), and Jason Marquis (121).

Of the 30-and-under active pitchers, Justin Verlander, with 135 career wins currently in his age-30 season, would be the odds-on favorite to reach 200 wins as his averaging 13 wins over the next five seasons would do the trick. Felix Hernandez, at age-27 and 109 wins; Jared Weaver, at age-30 and 108 wins; Ervin Santana, at age-30 and 103 wins; Zack Greinke, at age-29 and 99 wins; and Cole Hamels and Jon Lester, both at age-29 and 95 wins, have the best outside chances to make it to 200 wins, although you could also widen the net to include James Shields and Adam Wainwright, both with 93 wins in their age-31 seasons, and Matt Cain, with 92 wins in his age-28 season.

But as we have seen so far, not only is it an endurance contest to get to 200 wins, let alone 250 wins or, even more chimerically, 300 wins in an age of high talent compression and interventionist bullpens, but high win totals do not indicate how effective a pitcher is to his team—a win is a team effort and often unfairly rewards, or in the case of a loss penalizes, a pitcher by awarding him the sole credit. Wins have never been a strong metric for evaluating a pitcher's qualifications for the Hall of Fame. We turn now to one method for such an evaluation.

JAWS: Putting the Bite on Pitchers' Performances

Sabermetrician Jay Jaffe has developed his JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system) measurement system to evaluate players by position against Hall of Fame players at that same position, using their career bWAR averaged with the bWAR from their seven-year peak (not necessarily in consecutive years). The intention is to evaluate players on an even keel including those who might be overvalued by high counting numbers (recall Early Wynn and his 300 wins) and those who might be undervalued by not posting such high counting numbers (recall Pedro Martinez and his 86.0 bWAR).

The table below lists many of the starting pitchers discussed in this article so far, including big win-total pitchers Jim Kaat, Jack Morris, and Jamie Moyer, in descending order of their JAWS ranking. (Statistics for still-active pitchers are current through August 4, 2013.)

Starting Pitchers by JAWS Ranking
Pitcher	Rank	bWAR	bWAR7	JAWS	Wins	ERA	ERA+
Martinez, Pedro	21	86.0	58.2	71.1	219	2.93	154
Schilling. Curt	27	80.7	49.0	64.4	216	3.46	127
Mussina, Mike	28	82.7	44.5	63.8	270	3.68	123
** Average of 57 Hall of Fame Pitchers **	—	72.6	50.2	61.4	—	—	—
Halladay, Roy	42	65.5	50.6	57.6	201	3.37	131
Reuschel, Rick	45	68.2	43.8	57.0	214	3.37	114
Brown, Kevin	46	68.5	45.4	56.9	211	3.28	127
Tiant, Luis	51	66.1	44.6	55.7	229	3.30	114
Smoltz, John	58	66.5	38.7	54.1	213	3.33	125
Cicotte, Eddie	66	56.9	44.0	51.0	209	2.38	123
Finley, Chuck	73	58.5	39.8	49.1	200	3.85	115
John, Tommy	78	62.3	34.7	48.3	288	3.34	111
Tanana, Frank	79	57.5	38.5	48.2	240	3.66	106
Hudson, Tim	82	55.5	38.4	47.7	205	3.44	124
Sabathia, CC	83	54.0	40.4	47.7	200	3.57	122
Powell, Jack	88	56.0	36.8	46.8	245	2.97	106
Pettitte, Andy	89	58.9	34.1	46.4	252	3.87	116
Quinn, Jack	94	59.0	33.2	45.6	247	3.29	114
Pierce, Billy	96	53.1	37.8	45.6	211	3.27	119
Koosman, Jerry	99	57.1	36.6	45.2	222	3.36	110
Kaat, Jim	100	45.3	38.4	44.9	283	3.45	108
Buehrle, Mark	101	54.2	35.8	44.6	181	3.84	118
Wells, David	118	53.5	31.4	42.5	239	4.13	108
Moyer, Jamie	124	50.2	33.2	41.8	269	4.25	103
Colón, Bartolo	149	44.2	34.5	39.1	185	3.96	114
Morris, Jack	158	43.8	32.8	38.4	254	3.90	105

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference. Note: To be consistent with its usage throughout the article, I used the bWAR value for the pitcher's pitching performance. Jaffe uses the pitcher's overall performance bWAR, which has a slightly different value.

Rank: The pitcher's standing in Jaffe's ranking of starting pitchers throughout baseball history. Note: Jaffe's ranking includes both Hall of Fame pitchers and non-Hall of Fame pitchers.

bWAR7: Sum total of the pitcher's best seven seasons by bWAR; does not have to be consecutive years.

JAWS: The pitcher's career bWAR averaged with his seven-year bWAR peak.

Of the 20 pitchers ranked ahead of Pedro Martinez, 16 are already in the Hall of Fame; of the four who are not in the Hall, two are Randy Johnson and Greg Maddux, both of whom should be elected in their first year of eligibility, one is Roger Clemens, who would have been elected in his first year of eligibility (which was this year) if PEDs were not an issue, and one is Jim McCormick, a 19th-century star who might be selected by a future Pre-Integration Committee.

Of the 29 pitchers ranked behind Martinez, up to and including Red Ruffing at the 50th spot, 18 pitchers, including Ruffing, are already in the Hall, with three not yet eligible (Mike Mussina, Tom Glavine, Roy Halladay) and one being Curt Schilling, whose first year of eligibility was this year.

Jaffe's scoring system is based on wins above replacement, and as he acknowledges, it does not account for postseason play, awards won, career milestones, or league-leading in key categories. JAWS is, in essence, a refinement of the bWAR assessments we have examined previously, emphasizing a pitcher's peak and keyed to pitchers already enshrined in the Hall of Fame. What emerges, though, is that a pitcher's effectiveness, his contribution to his team's ability to win, is more valuable than whether he is credited with a win.

Conclusion: Closing for the Starter

We began by examining the traditional assumption that the number of wins a pitcher earned over his career is an indicator of his worthiness for the Hall of Fame. This examination was prompted by milestones that have occurred this season: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, and CC Sabathia all reached 200 wins this season, while Andy Pettitte reached 250 wins. In an age of interventionist bullpens, with starting pitchers leaving a game often before a final decision is reached, it is harder for starting pitchers to earn a victory. Thus, the charmed circle of 300 wins could be out of reach for pitchers for many years to come, and now win plateaus of 250 wins or even 200 wins could become "the new 300 wins."

However, just as pitching strategy has changed, so has the evaluation of a pitcher's effectiveness—a win is no longer considered to be a reliable indicator of how well a pitcher performs. There are too many factors that contribute to a win (or the lack of a win) that are out of a pitcher's control, notably the run support he gets from his team's offense and the fielding support he gets from the team's defenders. Instead, metrics such as wins above replacement (WAR) and adjusted earned run average (or ERA+) attempt to isolate a pitcher's individual contribution to his team's ability to win.

As a result, pitchers with high win totals might look like Hall of Fame-caliber pitchers because they have quantitative strength: Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Jamie Moyer, and Jack Morris have all collected at least 250 wins, as has Andy Pettitte, still pitching in the major leagues. But pitchers with qualitative strength—having amassed high WAR totals or high ERA+ ratings—compare favorably with Hall of Fame pitchers who have also demonstrated qualitative strength, pitchers such as Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Roy Halladay, who have reached the 200-win plateau even though several pitchers not already in the Hall of Fame have considerably more wins, although Mike Mussina is that rarity—a pitcher who has posted a high win total and high qualitative statistics.

Martinez did not amass a great number of wins compared to earlier Hall of Fame pitchers, but he did generate peripheral statistics that are better than many of them. The evaluation of Martinez signals the change in thinking about a pitcher's effectiveness (a change that was heralded by the eventual election of Bert Blyleven to the Hall of Fame). Martinez reeled off several seasons of pitching dominance all the more impressive for occurring both in a period of high talent compression and inflated offensive statistics. Conversely, high win totals do not automatically indicate strength; for example, Andy Pettitte has reached the 250-win plateau—he might be the last pitcher to do so for some time to come—but he has benefited from playing on excellent all-around teams throughout his career, and he never exhibited a streak of pitching dominance even close to that of Martinez's.

Both Martinez and Pettitte exemplify the change in thinking occurring now with respect to evaluating pitching effectiveness. Traditionally, Pettitte with the high win total and postseason success would have been considered to be the better bet for the Hall of Fame. But Martinez's overall effectiveness, exemplified by his streak of dominance, makes him the more worthy candidate.

Or to put it another way, this is the lesson we learned way back on the grade-school playground: It's not whether you won or lost, it's how well you played the game.