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PITCHING WINS: A TICKET TO THE BASEBALL HALL OF FAME?

Index


Pitchers' Profiles: Who Is Not a Hall of Famer?

Not to cut right to the chase, but if four of the ten pitchers in the top-ten ranking by bWAR are not Hall of Fame pitchers, then what chance do the next ten in that ranking have? The short answer is, not much—at least for the seven pitchers who have already retired and have had their chance on the Hall of Fame ballot. However, the three currently active pitchers could have the possibility of making the Hall.

First, one pitcher in the next ten has no chance of entering the Hall of Fame unless Major League Baseball reverses a decision that has stood for close to a century. Right-handed knuckleballer Eddie Cicotte was in 1921 declared permanently ineligible to play Major League baseball by Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis for his participation in the infamous "Black Sox" scandal of 1919 in which eight players from the Chicago White Sox, including Cicotte, consorted with gamblers to throw the World Series and enable the underdog Cincinnati Reds to win the Series. It would be another 15 years from Landis's ruling before the inaugural class of the Baseball Hall of Fame would even be inducted, but Cicotte would not appear on any Hall of Fame ballot.

Interestingly, there had been no explicit prohibition of players such as Cicotte from the early ballots. Other players who had been banned from baseball, such as Hal Chase—a notorious gambler, though not one of the Black Sox—and "Shoeless" Joe Jackson, Cicotte's 1919 Black Sox teammate and the one with the best chance to make the Hall, actually received a handful of votes. Eddie Cicotte had the next-best chance to make the Hall: He had a very good winning percentage (.585) and ERA (2.38), 24th all-time albeit garnered during the dead-ball era, while his ERA+ of 123, 84th all-time, is equal to Hall of Famer Juan Marichal's and is a tick higher than Hall of Famer Bob Feller's, and his bWAR of 56.9 is 68th all-time, ahead of Hall of Famers Mordecai Brown, Whitey Ford, and Sandy Koufax.

Another dead-ball pitcher, Jack Powell, ranks 52nd all-time in wins with 245—but he also ranks 8th in lifetime losses with 254 and thus has the dubious honor of having the most wins by a pitcher with a losing record. (Call him the Connie Mack of starting pitchers.) The right-hander had the misfortune of pitching for the often-woeful St. Louis Browns for much of his career, a team that in Powell's last three seasons struggled to win as many as 50 games in only one of those seasons. Unfortunately, statistics are not available to evaluate the kind of run support—or lack thereof—Powell got, but he did post a career ERA of 2.97.

The left-handed ace of the "Go-Go" White Sox teams of the 1950s, Billy Pierce is lost in the haze of baseball history, but he compiled a quietly impressive record including a 13-year stretch in which for each year, in seasonal averages, he posted a 15–11 record (.577) in 30 starts and 225 innings pitched, with 14 complete games—he led the American League in complete games three years in a row, from 1956 to 1958—while establishing a 3.16 ERA and 123 ERA+; Pierce led the AL in ERA in 1955 (1.97), and he posted back-to-back 20-game seasons in 1956 and 1957, leading the league in the latter year. During that 13-year period, he generated 50.5 bWAR, averaging 3.9 wins above replacement every season. Pierce is noted for his battles against a more celebrated southpaw, Whitey Ford of the New York Yankees, while being saddled with the inferior offense, certainly in comparison to those 1950s Bronx Bombers. Among left-handers in the Hall of Fame already, Pierce ranks higher in bWAR than Lefty Gomez, Rube Marquard, and Herb Pennock, and higher in ERA+ than Gomez and Marquard, but it is hard to count Pierce as one of the elite—even if no less than Bill James has a soft spot for him. Certainly, Hall voters felt that way in 1970, during Pierce's first and only year on the ballot, as he got precisely five votes.

Toiling in the shadow of his more famous teammate Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman in his first full season, 1968, made an auspicious impression when he posted a 19–12 record (.613) with a 2.08 ERA and 145 ERA+, completing half his 34 starts while notching 7 shutouts and striking out 178 against only 69 walks for an excellent strikeouts-to-walks ratio of 2.58. The lefty was runner-up for Rookie of the Year honors to a Cincinnati Reds catcher named Johnny Bench, although based on bWAR, "Koos" was the more valuable player. The following year saw the "Miracle Mets" win the World Series against the heavily favored Baltimore Orioles, and Koosman, who practically replicated his 1968 performance during the 1969 regular season, earned two victories against the Orioles including a complete-game win in the clinching Game Five—and he was one out shy of a complete game in Game Two, which evened the Series and set the stage for the Mets' next three wins; his ERA in two Series games was 2.04 as he allowed only seven hits and struck out nine.

Then Koosman embarked on a solid though hardly Hall of Fame career, mixing a few strong seasons, such as his 1976 campaign that saw him with a 21–10 (.677) record, 2.69 ERA, and 200 strikeouts as he came in second to the San Diego Padres' Randy Jones for the National League Cy Young Award, with a number of league-average or below-league-average seasons, such as his campaign the following year, which saw him lose 20 games against only 8 victories, although the Mets had gone from winning 86 games in 1976 to winning only 64 in 1977. In his first year with the Minnesota Twins in 1979, Koosman again won 20 games as he finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting—not bad for a pitcher in his age-36 season—but that was his last strong year. Compiling his way to 200 wins—and 200 losses—along with 2,556 strikeouts, Jerry Koosman was a fine pitcher, just not a Hall of Fame-caliber one. No surprise, then, that he garnered just four votes on his debut on the ballot in 1991 and disappeared.

Another southpaw who made an early splash, Frank Tanana began as a fireballer for the (then-) California Angels. In his first five full seasons, from 1974 to 1978, he averaged, per year, 16 wins against 12 losses (.586 winning percentage), a 2.86 ERA and 124 ERA+, 259 innings pitched, 33 starts, 16 complete games, 4 shutouts, and 210 strikeouts against only 69 walks for an outstanding strikeout-to-walk ratio of 3.06. In 1975, Tanana led the American League in strikeouts with 269—no small feat considering his rotation mate was a guy named Nolan Ryan. (Ryan managed "only" 186 K's in 1975, breaking a consecutive string of at least 300 strikeouts from 1972 to 1977, including the single-season record of 383 in 1973.) Tanana also led the AL in ERA (2.54) and shutouts (7) in 1977 as he finished in the top ten in Cy Young voting in three of those five seasons.

Then Tanana developed arm trouble, and he had to learn to become a junk dealer as his repertoire went from throwing flames to an array of off-speed pitches including an excellent curve ball. From an elite beginning that saw him post three seasons, from 1975 to 1977, with bWAR values that put him near or at MVP-levels, Tanana toiled until the early 1990s as a survivor and a compiler, his 240 lifetime wins, 56th all-time, balanced by 236 losses, 17th all-time as he collected 2773 strikeouts, 21st all-time. Tanana's 57.5 bWAR is 65th lifetime, but his ERA+ of 106, mirrored by FanGraphs' ERA– of 94, marks him as a little better than league-average for his entire career, and with that early period of dominance being so short and not overpowering, Frank Tanana cannot be considered a Hall of Fame-caliber pitcher. Voters came to this conclusion as in his first and only appearance on the ballot, he got nary a vote—and in a cold twist of fate, his erstwhile teammate Nolan Ryan, on his first ballot that same year, walked away with 98.8 percent of the vote.

Yet another left-hander, and another one who pitched for the Angels, Chuck Finley could also bring the heat as he had ten seasons of 150 or more strikeouts and finished with 2610, 23rd all-time (and just two slots below Frank Tanana). Finley was a durable starter, averaging each season, over 15 years from 1988 to 2002, 31 starts, 204 innings pitched, 4 complete games, and one shutout, which during this period of interventionist bullpens is significant. During this period, Finley collected 195 of his 200 career wins as he reached double-digits in all but two of those seasons, again a significant achievement during this period in baseball. Finley led the American League in complete games (13) in 1993 as he pitched 251.1 innings, and he led the AL in innings pitched in the strike-shortened season of 1994 with 183.1.

But it is hard not to see Chuck Finley as little more than an innings-eater: durable, reliable, but not spectacular. True, Finley was a five-time All-Star, but he finished in the top-ten for Cy Young voting only once: He was seventh in 1990 when he went 18–9 with a 2.40 ERA, but while he might have been better qualitatively (7.63 bWAR, 158 ERA+) than winner Bob Welch (27–6, 2.95 ERA, 2.99 bWAR, 125 ERA+), Finley also faced stiff competition from Roger Clemens (21–6, 1.93 ERA, 10.6 bWAR, 211 ERA+), Bobby Thigpen (a then-single-season record 57 saves, 1.83 ERA, 211 ERA+) and Dennis Eckersley (48 saves; just 4 walks, 1 intentional, in 73.1 innings; a miniscule 0.61 ERA; and a simply ridiculous 603 ERA+). Voters must have felt the same way as well because in Chuck Finley's only appearance on the Hall of Fame ballot in 2008, he received precisely one vote—and I suspect it was cast by Orange County Register sports writer Bill Plunkett in a hometown nod to the man who had once been assaulted with a stiletto-heeled pump wielded by his wife, rock-video vixen Tawny Kitaen.

Can you believe we have another southpaw up next? David Wells might be tied with a Hall of Famer, Mordecai Brown, for 57th on the career wins list with 239, but as I detailed prior to the announcement of the 2013 ballot results, "Boomer" is at best a borderline candidate, and when the ballot results were announced, Wells had netted five votes on his first and only sojourn on the ballot. If you're too lazy to click the link, I'll sum up Wells for you here: Yes, he won a lot of games, but he pitched for some strong teams, including the Yankees, that provided him run support and mitigated that high 4.13 career ERA—albeit earned in the teeth of the Steroids Era—as his ERA+ of 108 and ERA– of 93 indicate a pitcher who is better than league-average but not enough to be enshrined among the best who ever pitched.

This leaves us with three pitchers still active who have all passed milestones this season: Andy Pettitte passed the 250-win plateau while Tim Hudson and C.C. Sabathia both became career 200-game winners.

Pitchers' Profiles: Who Might Become a Hall of Famer?

The active leader in wins, Andy Pettitte is also the active leader in games started, innings pitched, and strikeouts, and the left-hander will continue to add to those totals before he retires. Again. When he retires—again—and whether he will stay retired is another story; he retired following the 2010 season, but attending the New York Yankees' spring training camp as an instructor in 2012 renewed his desire to play, and he resumed pitching in the Major Leagues in May of that year. What might be the case is that even if Pettitte pads his résumé for another year or two, he has probably already written his legacy.

The question becomes: Still-active or not, is that legacy strong enough to put him into the Hall of Fame? Pettitte's career, which began in 1995, coincides with the rise of the Yankees as a powerhouse that saw them appear in the World Series seven times between 1996 and 2009, winning five of those Series, and it might not be such a coincidence: Along with shortstop Derek Jeter, catcher Jorge Posada, and relief pitcher Mariano Rivera, Pettitte is considered to be one of the "Core Four" of those championship Yankees. Indeed, Pettitte is the lifetime leader in postseason wins (19), games started (44), and innings pitched (276.2), and is second in strikeouts (183), and fifth in games pitched (44). This also includes his postseason appearances with the Houston Astros in 2005, for whom Pettitte pitched from 2004 to 2006 before returning to the Yankees.

Pettitte has been in double digits in wins for 14 of his 18 seasons, and for a 14-year period, from 1996 to 2009, he averaged 16 wins against 9 losses (.633 winning percentage), winning 21 games twice and 19 games once; 31 games started (he led the league in this category three times); 197 innings pitched; and 145 strikeouts while generating a 3.89 ERA, a 117 ERA+, and a 3.6 bWAR. With Rivera, Pettitte holds the Major League record for win-save combinations, in which Pettitte earned the win and Rivera the save, with 81 (70 during regular-season games, 11 in the postseason), which also points to a curious fact about Pettitte's career: in 510 games started, Pettitte has only 25 complete games.

Pettitte began his career after interventionist bullpens had been established as part of contemporary pitching strategy, and he ranks seventh (tied with Tim Hudson) among active pitchers. So, it is no demerit to Pettitte that he is not a starting pitcher from a bygone era who battled through the entire game—baseball is simply not played like that any longer. Yet it is curious that Pettitte isn't the leader in complete games among active pitchers, particularly since the runner-up to him in games started, Tim Hudson, who is tied with Pettitte in complete games, has made 83 fewer starts than Pettitte. The active leader in complete games, Roy Halladay (67), has made 125 fewer starts, and if Halladay is an outlier (which, as we have seen, makes him a probable Hall of Famer), consider that a number of pitchers, all of whom have started fewer games than Pettitte, have either more complete games than Pettitte or have a higher proportion of complete games than Pettitte.

The following table lists, in descending order, the active pitchers with the most starts who have at least 20 complete games. "Years" indicates the number of seasons each pitcher has played. Also included are the career shutouts for each pitcher. (To be credited with a shutout, a pitcher must not only prevent the opposition from scoring but must pitch the entire game.) (Statistics for still-active pitchers are current through August 4, 2013.)

Active Pitchers' Complete Games, Ranked by Games Started

Pitcher

Years

Rank

GS

Rank

CG

Shutouts

Andy Pettitte

18

1

510

7

25

4

Tim Hudson

15

2

426

7

25

13

Mark Buehrle

14

3

416

5

28

8

C.C. Sabathia

13

5

406

2

37

12

Bartolo Colon

16

6

395

3

35

12

Roy Halladay

16

7

384

1

67

20

A.J. Burnett

15

9

357

10

22

10

Roy Oswalt

13

15

339

12

20

8

Chris Carpenter

15

17

332

4

33

15

Cliff Lee

12

25

300

6

27

12

Felix Hernandez

9

30

259

9

23

9

Justin Verlander

9

32

253

12

20

6

James Shields

8

40

238

11

21

8


Several pitchers with 100 or fewer starts than Pettitte have already passed Pettitte in complete games (Pettitte's last complete game, by the way, came in 2006), while Cliff Lee with 200 fewer starts than Pettitte has already passed him. Meanwhile, Felix Hernandez, James Shields, and Justin Verlander are only a few complete games back of Pettitte with half as many starts.

The point is not to show which pitchers are willing or able to "gut it out," but this comparison suggests indirectly that Pettitte might not have been such a dominant or "big-game" pitcher over his career. It is instructive that in this sample Pettitte ranks last in shutouts; next-to-last is Verlander, who has already passed Pettitte in this category in half as many starts (and two of Verlander's blanks were no-hitters). Over his career, Pettitte has averaged 6.3 innings per start and 101 pitches per start, giving the impression that he is something of a "hothouse flower," designed only to get his team to the later innings.

Five times Pettitte has placed in the top ten for Cy Young voting, with his best showing in 1996 when he was runner-up to the Toronto Blue Jays' Pat Hentgen, but neither in 1996 nor in any other year was Pettitte robbed of the award. In 18 seasons, Pettitte has been named to an All-Star team only three times, which is not necessarily an indictment as the honor is subject to partiality and is based only on a half-year's performance. However, his seasonal-average bWAR during his 14-year peak was 3.6; a bWAR of at least 5.0 is considered to be at the All-Star level, and Pettitte generated a per-season bWAR of at least 5.0 only three times in his career. Pettitte posted an ERA under 3.00 only three times, and one of those seasons was his return season of 2012 when he started only 12 games and pitched 75.1 innings. As it stands, his career ERA of 3.88 would be the highest of any Hall of Fame pitcher unless Jack Morris, with a 3.90 ERA and also at the 250-win mark, is elected next year.

In fairness, though, Pettitte has pitched most of his career in the American League East, the toughest division in the Major Leagues, even if his Yankees were the toughest of those teams a number of times. Indeed, Pettitte has enjoyed career run support averaging 5.4 runs per game while the major-league average during his career has been 4.7 runs per game. Pettitte has had 40 career tough losses, meaning he pitched a quality start—at least six innings and allowing three earned runs or fewer—but his team could not score enough runs for him, and 11 of those came during his three seasons with the Houston Astros. He has 41 career losses saved, or games in which he was in line to get the loss when he left but the relief staff and his offense at least tied the game subsequently, against only 34 wins lost, or games in which he left the game with the lead but the bullpen allowed the opposition to at least tie the game.

Unmentioned until now has been the specter of PEDs that clouds examination of Pettitte's career. Having been named in the Mitchell Report in 2007, Pettitte admitted to using human growth hormone (HGH) twice in 2002, explaining that it was to enable him to heal more quickly from an injury. However, he admitted subsequently that he had used HGH again in 2004, and he also claimed that friend and teammate Roger Clemens had told him that he, Clemens, had used HGH in 1999 or 2000. Clemens then stated that Pettitte "misremembered" the comment, but by then the PEDs taint was enveloping them both, with Clemens becoming the face of drug cheating in baseball along with Barry Bonds.

Leaving aside how Andy Pettitte will be regarded with respect to PEDs come voting time, he could be elected to the Hall of Fame for his 250-plus wins and his postseason pitching record, but both underscore his dependence on his team: As has been the theme throughout this article, wins are a team-dependent statistic, and a pitcher has to be on a winning team in order to get to the postseason in the first place.

However, it could be a while before we see another pitcher reach 250 wins. Both Roy Halladay and Tim Hudson, who reached 200 wins this season, have sustained injuries that have ended their seasons. Halladay is 36 and Hudson is 37, with scant few seasons left in their careers provided they can return from their surgeries. C.C. Sabathia also reached 200 wins this season, and as he is in his age-32 season he still has a few years in which to compile more wins.


Last modified on Thursday, 22 March 2018 01:44

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