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2016 HOF Debate: Trevor Hoffman
Dec 31, 2015
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: We have taken some flak for having Trevor Hoffman ranked in the 40’s on the Baseball Hall of Fame list and there have been so many articles written painting him as a lock. Is he really though?
Hoffman was the career leader in Saves for five years (taking it over from Lee Smith, before being eclipsed by Mariano Rivera) but Saves are a stat that isn’t in vogue and for good reason, as you can go out, shit the bed for an inning and as long your team gets the win, you get that etched in the SV column, though I will say that 601 is a number that I can’t (or anyone) take lightly.
Here is my thing against Hoffman. He is constantly compared to Mariano Rivera, but Rivera blows him away in every stat, traditional and sabremetric. Actually in sabre, it is not even close.
WAR: Rivera: 57.1, Hoffman: 28.4
JAWS: Rivera: 43.0, Hoffman: 24.0
WPA: Rivera: 56.65, Hoffman: 34.12
Well, proving that Hoffman is no Rivera doesn’t exactly prove that he doesn’t belong in Cooperstown and at the very least he has other HOF relievers beat in many statistical categories.
Still, I am struggling to find that special intangible, and I can’t find it.
Spheniscus, what am I missing?
Spheniscus: Well, he certainly is better than Mike Hampton. He is an interesting case to me. He held the record while he was playing, so people presumed he’d be a Hall of Famer. But having the record hasn’t helped Lee Smith get into the Hall. And perhaps that is where we should start. Rivera is so far and away better than Hoffman, perhaps it is unfair to compare the two. So let’s look at three sets of stats below…
All three of these guys are currently on the ballot and none are Mariano Rivera. If you could only vote for one, except for the number of times that he received an MVP or Cy Young vote, player B clearly appears to be the superior player to the other two players. His ERA is lower, his FIP is lower, his WHIP is lower, the hits he gives up per 9 innings is lower and his ERA+ and strike outs per walk is higher than the two other players. All of those things are good.
Bad news for both Hoffman (Player A) and Lee Smith (Player C) is that Player B is actually Billy Wagner. But Wagner has over 50 saves fewer than Smith and almost 200 fewer Hoffman and is likely a one and done. This despite getting the exposure of playing in New York versus Hoffman toiling away in San Diego and Milwaukee.
So is Hoffman a Hall of Famer, probably. Is he a shoo in? Not on this list. There are too many great players on this list. And with Mariano on the way, if he doesn’t get in soon there is a possibility that he may not get in at all.
Chairman: I went on a tirade on Wagner where I crapped on his post-season numbers. Hoffman’s are a lot better, but that isn’t difficult:
In six series, he pitched 13 Innings with 4 Saves, a 3.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.231. Those aren’t bad numbers, but it translates to an average pitcher, which bothers me considering he is supposed to be one of the best of all time at what he did.
You know that intangible I was trying to figure out about Hoffman. I think I got it. When I was checking out YouTube, I came across countless fan videos of him entering to AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells”. Not him pitching mind you…just coming out to pitch. His Baseball Reference page is sponsored by a fan, who is waiting to hear that song when he accepts his induction to Cooperstown.
That gimmick superseded that of comparable pitchers in larger markets…like Billy Wagner for example.
It happens all the time, most recently with “Linsanity” a couple of years back with the Knicks. Was he on fire at the time? Absolutely! But if he wasn’t a dorky looking Chinese guy, there is no way he would be as popular? Not a chance!
Honestly, I think that song accounts for a sizable chunk of his popularity, and yes if he is still on the ballot when Rivera gets there, he is screwed.
Spheniscus: He very well may be on the ballot when Rivera gets there, but he probably won’ t be screwed. Wagner will be gone. Smith will be gone. And who else is there to challenge him for the second closer spot? Danys Baez? Arthur Rhodes? Guillermo Mota? Francisco Cordero? Kerry Wood? Brad Lidge? Jason Isringhausen? Derek Lowe? Darren Oliver? I mean seriously, those are your closing options between now and 2019 when Rivera not only gets in on the first ballot but is carried aloft by a chorus of angels into Cooperstown. His competition in 2020? Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz, and Heath Bell. He’ll be fine.
If he is a Hall of Famer he should still be even if the greatest player at his position is a contemporary. The question is without the saves record for five years is he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so. But he has that cache, so it makes it seem like he should be a Hall of Famer. Which means he probably gets in eventually. Just not this year.
Chairman: Yep. He probably will get in eventually, and agreed, not this year. He wouldn’t get my pretend vote, but where will he finish this year? I am going to throw out 38%, but if that swung twenty points in either direction I would not be surprised.
Spheniscus: He doesn’t get my pretend vote either. Billy Wagner was a better player, but literally no one thinks Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer. That said he will definitely stay on the ballot and without Wagner and Smith to compare him to after this year will probably start making the climb to being a Hall of Famer sometime in 2022. Where does he start? The old folks will probably be swayed by the saves record. The young guys won’t. So I’ll say 30%.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: We have taken some flak for having Trevor Hoffman ranked in the 40’s on the Baseball Hall of Fame list and there have been so many articles written painting him as a lock. Is he really though?
Hoffman was the career leader in Saves for five years (taking it over from Lee Smith, before being eclipsed by Mariano Rivera) but Saves are a stat that isn’t in vogue and for good reason, as you can go out, shit the bed for an inning and as long your team gets the win, you get that etched in the SV column, though I will say that 601 is a number that I can’t (or anyone) take lightly.
Here is my thing against Hoffman. He is constantly compared to Mariano Rivera, but Rivera blows him away in every stat, traditional and sabremetric. Actually in sabre, it is not even close.
WAR: Rivera: 57.1, Hoffman: 28.4
JAWS: Rivera: 43.0, Hoffman: 24.0
WPA: Rivera: 56.65, Hoffman: 34.12
Well, proving that Hoffman is no Rivera doesn’t exactly prove that he doesn’t belong in Cooperstown and at the very least he has other HOF relievers beat in many statistical categories.
Still, I am struggling to find that special intangible, and I can’t find it.
Spheniscus, what am I missing?
Spheniscus: Well, he certainly is better than Mike Hampton. He is an interesting case to me. He held the record while he was playing, so people presumed he’d be a Hall of Famer. But having the record hasn’t helped Lee Smith get into the Hall. And perhaps that is where we should start. Rivera is so far and away better than Hoffman, perhaps it is unfair to compare the two. So let’s look at three sets of stats below…
| PLAYER |
ERA |
ERA+ |
FIP |
WHIP |
H9 |
HR9 |
SO/W |
ASG |
MVP/CY |
| A |
2.87 |
141 |
3.08 |
1.058 |
7.0 |
0.8 |
3.69 |
7 |
5/4 |
| B |
2.31 |
187 |
2.73 |
0.998 |
6.0 |
0.8 |
3.99 |
7 |
2/2 |
| C |
3.03 |
132 |
2.93 |
1.256 |
7.9 |
0.6 |
2.57 |
7 |
4/4 |
All three of these guys are currently on the ballot and none are Mariano Rivera. If you could only vote for one, except for the number of times that he received an MVP or Cy Young vote, player B clearly appears to be the superior player to the other two players. His ERA is lower, his FIP is lower, his WHIP is lower, the hits he gives up per 9 innings is lower and his ERA+ and strike outs per walk is higher than the two other players. All of those things are good.
Bad news for both Hoffman (Player A) and Lee Smith (Player C) is that Player B is actually Billy Wagner. But Wagner has over 50 saves fewer than Smith and almost 200 fewer Hoffman and is likely a one and done. This despite getting the exposure of playing in New York versus Hoffman toiling away in San Diego and Milwaukee.
So is Hoffman a Hall of Famer, probably. Is he a shoo in? Not on this list. There are too many great players on this list. And with Mariano on the way, if he doesn’t get in soon there is a possibility that he may not get in at all.
Chairman: I went on a tirade on Wagner where I crapped on his post-season numbers. Hoffman’s are a lot better, but that isn’t difficult:
In six series, he pitched 13 Innings with 4 Saves, a 3.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.231. Those aren’t bad numbers, but it translates to an average pitcher, which bothers me considering he is supposed to be one of the best of all time at what he did.
You know that intangible I was trying to figure out about Hoffman. I think I got it. When I was checking out YouTube, I came across countless fan videos of him entering to AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells”. Not him pitching mind you…just coming out to pitch. His Baseball Reference page is sponsored by a fan, who is waiting to hear that song when he accepts his induction to Cooperstown.
That gimmick superseded that of comparable pitchers in larger markets…like Billy Wagner for example.
It happens all the time, most recently with “Linsanity” a couple of years back with the Knicks. Was he on fire at the time? Absolutely! But if he wasn’t a dorky looking Chinese guy, there is no way he would be as popular? Not a chance!
Honestly, I think that song accounts for a sizable chunk of his popularity, and yes if he is still on the ballot when Rivera gets there, he is screwed.
Spheniscus: He very well may be on the ballot when Rivera gets there, but he probably won’ t be screwed. Wagner will be gone. Smith will be gone. And who else is there to challenge him for the second closer spot? Danys Baez? Arthur Rhodes? Guillermo Mota? Francisco Cordero? Kerry Wood? Brad Lidge? Jason Isringhausen? Derek Lowe? Darren Oliver? I mean seriously, those are your closing options between now and 2019 when Rivera not only gets in on the first ballot but is carried aloft by a chorus of angels into Cooperstown. His competition in 2020? Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz, and Heath Bell. He’ll be fine.
If he is a Hall of Famer he should still be even if the greatest player at his position is a contemporary. The question is without the saves record for five years is he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so. But he has that cache, so it makes it seem like he should be a Hall of Famer. Which means he probably gets in eventually. Just not this year.
Chairman: Yep. He probably will get in eventually, and agreed, not this year. He wouldn’t get my pretend vote, but where will he finish this year? I am going to throw out 38%, but if that swung twenty points in either direction I would not be surprised.
Spheniscus: He doesn’t get my pretend vote either. Billy Wagner was a better player, but literally no one thinks Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer. That said he will definitely stay on the ballot and without Wagner and Smith to compare him to after this year will probably start making the climb to being a Hall of Famer sometime in 2022. Where does he start? The old folks will probably be swayed by the saves record. The young guys won’t. So I’ll say 30%.
Awards = HOF? Part Nine: The Silver Slugger (Third Base) (MLB)
Dec 31, 2015
Published in
From the Desk of the Chairman
We here at Notinhalloffame.com thought it would be fun to take a look at the major awards in North American team sports and see how it translates into Hall of Fame potential.
Needless to say, different awards in different sports yield hall of fame potential. In basketball, the team sport with the least amount of players on a roster, the dividend for greatness much higher. In baseball, it is not as much as a great individual season does not have the same impact.
Needless to say, different awards in different sports yield hall of fame potential. In basketball, the team sport with the least amount of players on a roster, the dividend for greatness much higher. In baseball, it is not as much as a great individual season does not have the same impact.
2016 HOF Debate: Mike Hampton
Dec 31, 2015
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: I wasn’t planning to put Mike Hampton on this list as this is the man who when you say his name is known for signing a large contract he couldn’t live up to in Denver. I can still remember an article where he was supposed the Rockies “Coors Field antidote”!
That didn’t happen, but he did 7 Home Runs that year and won his second Silver Slugger award (of four). Small consolation for that 5 plus ERA he had that year.
Is this a complete waste of time?
Spheniscus: This is a complete waste of time. On the plus side, he is the only pitcher to win a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award the same year. He also was MVP of the 2000 NLCS. And… uh he really liked the school systems in suburban Denver?
His career ERA is over 4, he allowed 1.4 runners per inning, and averaged 5.5 strikeouts a game. Using the JAWS metric, he is the 301st greatest pitcher in baseball history (although it should be noted that #300 is HOF Jesse Haines, who may be the worst player in the Hall). His comparables are Aaron Sele, Bruce Hurst, Tim Belcher, Joe Nuxhall, and Bronson Arroyo. And as much as I enjoyed rooting for three of those five guys when they were in Boston none of those guys are close to being Hall of Famers. And unfortunately neither is he.
Chairman: Apparently it was the Canadian school system that turned off the wife of former Toronto Raptor, Antonio Davis, who balked because her kids would be taught metric.
Going back to Hampton, I didn’t realize he was 301st in JAWS, which no matter what you think of that metric, you have to agree that this paints as big a “no” as anything else ever could.
Spheniscus, you got me thinking of another collaborative article in the future. Drafting 24 people of each major Hall of Fame who should be kicked out?
Spheniscus: Metric? Ewwww. Next thing you know, your kids will be putting unnecessary “u”s in everything and apologizing for doing so.
And I would definitely be up for a Hall of Fame Survivor Series. Just so long as we can get rid of non-players as well. No Hall does worse with non-players than the Baseball Hall. Bowie Kuhn? Tom Yawkey? Charles Comiskey? Get them out. Ooh, can we choose their replacements too? It would be awesome to throw out Kuhn and put in Marvin Miller or throw out Yawkey and put in Buck O’Neill.
Chairman: I never apologize for that “u”! And metric rocks! Clemens threw 160 kph up here!
Of course, non-players count! Comiskey would be the first on my list!
Oh…Hampton is a no, and he finishes with no votes. Borrowing from Dean Wormer…ZERO POINT ZERO.
Spheniscus: Sure he through 160 up there, but it was in 34 degree weather in the height of summer. Just not as impressive as when he was throwing 100 in 93 degree weather in Boston.
And we agree, none of the writers will cast a vote for Hampton.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: I wasn’t planning to put Mike Hampton on this list as this is the man who when you say his name is known for signing a large contract he couldn’t live up to in Denver. I can still remember an article where he was supposed the Rockies “Coors Field antidote”!
That didn’t happen, but he did 7 Home Runs that year and won his second Silver Slugger award (of four). Small consolation for that 5 plus ERA he had that year.
Is this a complete waste of time?
Spheniscus: This is a complete waste of time. On the plus side, he is the only pitcher to win a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger award the same year. He also was MVP of the 2000 NLCS. And… uh he really liked the school systems in suburban Denver?
His career ERA is over 4, he allowed 1.4 runners per inning, and averaged 5.5 strikeouts a game. Using the JAWS metric, he is the 301st greatest pitcher in baseball history (although it should be noted that #300 is HOF Jesse Haines, who may be the worst player in the Hall). His comparables are Aaron Sele, Bruce Hurst, Tim Belcher, Joe Nuxhall, and Bronson Arroyo. And as much as I enjoyed rooting for three of those five guys when they were in Boston none of those guys are close to being Hall of Famers. And unfortunately neither is he.
Chairman: Apparently it was the Canadian school system that turned off the wife of former Toronto Raptor, Antonio Davis, who balked because her kids would be taught metric.
Going back to Hampton, I didn’t realize he was 301st in JAWS, which no matter what you think of that metric, you have to agree that this paints as big a “no” as anything else ever could.
Spheniscus, you got me thinking of another collaborative article in the future. Drafting 24 people of each major Hall of Fame who should be kicked out?
Spheniscus: Metric? Ewwww. Next thing you know, your kids will be putting unnecessary “u”s in everything and apologizing for doing so.
And I would definitely be up for a Hall of Fame Survivor Series. Just so long as we can get rid of non-players as well. No Hall does worse with non-players than the Baseball Hall. Bowie Kuhn? Tom Yawkey? Charles Comiskey? Get them out. Ooh, can we choose their replacements too? It would be awesome to throw out Kuhn and put in Marvin Miller or throw out Yawkey and put in Buck O’Neill.
Chairman: I never apologize for that “u”! And metric rocks! Clemens threw 160 kph up here!
Of course, non-players count! Comiskey would be the first on my list!
Oh…Hampton is a no, and he finishes with no votes. Borrowing from Dean Wormer…ZERO POINT ZERO.
Spheniscus: Sure he through 160 up there, but it was in 34 degree weather in the height of summer. Just not as impressive as when he was throwing 100 in 93 degree weather in Boston.
And we agree, none of the writers will cast a vote for Hampton.
2016 HOF Debate: Jeff Bagwell
Dec 31, 2015
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
Last year, we did our first ever debate on Notinhalloffame.com where we tackled the Hall of Fame merit of twenty-four men who are on the Hall of Fame ballot, in what was in our opinion the most loaded ballot in our lifetime.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, last year we started with Jeff Bagwell, who is on the ballot for the 6th time. I am going to start off with giving myself a pat on the back for my prognostication prowess as I predicted he would remain around the same percentage of votes as the year before, which wasn’t too far off as he marginally grew his percentage from 54.3 to 55.7%.
I view that 1.4% growth as huge in a year where the ballot was so colossally loaded as a major win. I am serious on that, as had he dropped by the same percent, it would show the “order” in which the voters see him. When this site started he held the “1C” slot (the ineligible Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson hold 1A and 1B respectively) and the only reason he dropped in ranking (he is #5 right now) was because of the heavyweights entering the ballot.
My first thought is that Bagwell is poised for a major jump and while he may not enter this year, he will be a lot closer to knocking on that door.
Spheniscus: Chairman, I agree with your analysis on this one. Looking at the nominees, this looks like a list that has somewhere between 13 and 15 Hall of Famers of whom they will elect two. Why that number? Because the same people who did no investigation when the steroids era took off now sit in judgment of the players who played in that era.
The dumbest part of their evaluation unfortunately strikes right at Bagwell and his candidacy. He just looks to the voters like he took steroids. He was very muscular as a player and he hit lots of homers. He must have been cheating, right?
Well… maybe. But there is exactly zero evidence against him. That hasn’t stopped voters from withholding their votes from him of course, but with the “other unproven steroid guy” Mike Piazza likely to get in this year, I think it will help clear the way for Bagwell to get in. So I also expect a jump, probably up to the 65-67% range. Particularly since there are only two real first ballot threats added this year. One of whom, Ken Griffey Jr., will be joining Piazza in this class.
Chairman: It’s true. Bagwell has an unfair stain on him, as I personally think he should already be inducted. He is only three points away from that career 3/4/5 (with a .297/.408/.540), is 21st all-time in OPS and is 38th all-time in WAR for position players. Honestly, I think he was more valuable than his teammate, Craig Biggio, who already got in, and it should have been Bagwell opening the door for Biggio, not the other way around.
There is no statistical argument against him. We know what has been holding him back, and it is suspicion, nothing more. He has done than enough to counter playing for low-profile Houston and playing a position that saw a lot of other power hitters with sexier names. What worries me is that if he doesn’t make a significant jump this year, he will be in serious trouble, because this really seems to be the year for it to happen.
Spheniscus: I didn’t realize a career 3/4/5 was a thing, but it is damn impressive.
I am not worried about Bagwell getting in. He will get damn close this year. Somewhere into the 60s. And once he is there he will be easy for the people on the fence to vote for him. With next year’s class adding three serious candidates in Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez, the last two of whom have serious PED issues attached, Bagwell will be inducted in 2017.
Chairman: I think he has a serious shot this year, but failing that, he won’t have to wait any longer than a year.
As for my fictional vote, this is a solid yes for me, as it has been from the very beginning.
Spheniscus: Clearly a solid yes for me as well. I think he ends up just short. But I hope to be pleasantly surprised. He will get in next year.
Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: Spheniscus, last year we started with Jeff Bagwell, who is on the ballot for the 6th time. I am going to start off with giving myself a pat on the back for my prognostication prowess as I predicted he would remain around the same percentage of votes as the year before, which wasn’t too far off as he marginally grew his percentage from 54.3 to 55.7%.
I view that 1.4% growth as huge in a year where the ballot was so colossally loaded as a major win. I am serious on that, as had he dropped by the same percent, it would show the “order” in which the voters see him. When this site started he held the “1C” slot (the ineligible Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson hold 1A and 1B respectively) and the only reason he dropped in ranking (he is #5 right now) was because of the heavyweights entering the ballot.
My first thought is that Bagwell is poised for a major jump and while he may not enter this year, he will be a lot closer to knocking on that door.
Spheniscus: Chairman, I agree with your analysis on this one. Looking at the nominees, this looks like a list that has somewhere between 13 and 15 Hall of Famers of whom they will elect two. Why that number? Because the same people who did no investigation when the steroids era took off now sit in judgment of the players who played in that era.
The dumbest part of their evaluation unfortunately strikes right at Bagwell and his candidacy. He just looks to the voters like he took steroids. He was very muscular as a player and he hit lots of homers. He must have been cheating, right?
Well… maybe. But there is exactly zero evidence against him. That hasn’t stopped voters from withholding their votes from him of course, but with the “other unproven steroid guy” Mike Piazza likely to get in this year, I think it will help clear the way for Bagwell to get in. So I also expect a jump, probably up to the 65-67% range. Particularly since there are only two real first ballot threats added this year. One of whom, Ken Griffey Jr., will be joining Piazza in this class.
Chairman: It’s true. Bagwell has an unfair stain on him, as I personally think he should already be inducted. He is only three points away from that career 3/4/5 (with a .297/.408/.540), is 21st all-time in OPS and is 38th all-time in WAR for position players. Honestly, I think he was more valuable than his teammate, Craig Biggio, who already got in, and it should have been Bagwell opening the door for Biggio, not the other way around.
There is no statistical argument against him. We know what has been holding him back, and it is suspicion, nothing more. He has done than enough to counter playing for low-profile Houston and playing a position that saw a lot of other power hitters with sexier names. What worries me is that if he doesn’t make a significant jump this year, he will be in serious trouble, because this really seems to be the year for it to happen.
Spheniscus: I didn’t realize a career 3/4/5 was a thing, but it is damn impressive.
I am not worried about Bagwell getting in. He will get damn close this year. Somewhere into the 60s. And once he is there he will be easy for the people on the fence to vote for him. With next year’s class adding three serious candidates in Vlad Guerrero, Ivan Rodriguez, and Manny Ramirez, the last two of whom have serious PED issues attached, Bagwell will be inducted in 2017.
Chairman: I think he has a serious shot this year, but failing that, he won’t have to wait any longer than a year.
As for my fictional vote, this is a solid yes for me, as it has been from the very beginning.
Spheniscus: Clearly a solid yes for me as well. I think he ends up just short. But I hope to be pleasantly surprised. He will get in next year.