IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2014 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION

Past Performance: Reviewing the Previous Ballot

When I did my analysis of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot two years ago, I identified eight candidates I would vote for. One was Barry Larkin, who was the only player the writers voted into the Hall in 2012. Last year, I identified 14 candidates, and because last year was such a historic vote, I wrote a two-part series, the first part providing a historical overview of both the overstuffed ballot ("Embarrassment of Riches") and the Steroids Era ("Embarrassment of Conduct") including a brief look at cheating throughout baseball history. The second part provided the evaluations of the players on the 2013 ballot, including the 14 I thought were (and still are) worthy of the Hall of Fame. Of course, none of them were elected, and one of them, Kenny Lofton, was dropped from the ballot for not receiving at least five percent of the vote.

Last year's analysis was, er, "comprehensive" to say the least, but given its historic impact it was merited. This year, though, we are still seeing more of the same. First, the performance-enhancing drugs controversy is not going away; there are some first-timers with known associations with PEDs (Eric Gagné, Paul Lo Duca) and at least one, Luis Gonzalez, suspected of PEDs usage although no evidence has emerged to corroborate the allegation. However, none are serious candidates for the Hall.

Last year, Roger Clemens polled 37.6 percent of the vote while Barry Bonds received 36.2 percent. Sammy Sosa, another prominent face of PEDs in his first year on the ballot, stayed alive with 12.5 percent of the vote, and previous PEDs poster boys Mark McGwire (16.9 percent) and Rafael Palmeiro (8.8 percent), both of whom have admitted, either in McGwire's case explicitly or in Palmeiro's case implicitly, to having had used PEDs, took a hit to their vote totals as both dropped from previous years. On the other hand, six other players with no connections to PEDs also saw declines in their vote totals while three players—Jeff Bagwell, who, like Luis Gonzalez, is suspected of PEDs usage even though no evidence has emerged to substantiate the claim, Jack Morris, and Tim Raines—saw upticks in their vote totals.

Meanwhile, Craig Biggio and Curt Schilling, generally regarded as "clean," PEDs-wise (although rumors float around Biggio as he was teammates with Bagwell for so many years, which is a case of guilt by association stemming from guilt by supposition), survived their first ballot: Schilling polled a modest 38.8 percent although Biggio emerged at the top vote-getter, garnering 68.2 percent of the vote, which is an impressive debut considering the packed ballot. Finally, Mike Piazza, who has admitted to using androstenedione ("andro," most notably associated with McGwire) early in his career, when androstenedione was still available over the counter and not yet banned by Major League Baseball, produced the fourth-best showing on the ballot with 57.8 percent.

Will voters continue to punish the PEDs users this year? Both Bonds and Clemens received half the votes needed for admission, and on their playing numbers alone both would have sailed into the Hall on their first ballot without the PEDs taint. McGwire, the PEDs-associated candidate who has survived the longest on the ballot, is less than one-fourth the way toward the necessary votes he needs as he stands at the midpoint of his allotted time on the ballot, provided he can maintain the necessary five percent to stay on the ballot. Palmeiro, who with 3020 hits and 569 home runs is only one of four men ever to reach at least 3000 hits and 500 home runs (the other three being Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray), has yet to break 13 percent in three tries so far, with last year's showing the weakest although the ballot has grown increasingly heavy even in the three years Palmeiro has been on it. So, how the voters will regard the PEDs-associated candidates remains to be seen, but if they do provide even less support than previously, it could be because the ballot is even heavier than it had been previously.

Just the addition of Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Frank Thomas makes the 2014 ballot more challenging. Three more first-timers—Luis Gonzalez, Moisés Alou, and Kenny Rogers—are additional weight although in a "normal" year they would generate some discussion but not the serious kind, and in this year they hardly merit discussion. That's not a slight to them—it's a reflection of how much genuine Hall of Fame talent is on the ballot.

And since the BBWAA ballot as it exists today, and for the 2014 vote, allows a maximum of ten candidates, I am approaching this assessment with the goal of naming the ten players I would vote for this year were I a voting member.

Slashing the List in Half

Given that restriction of naming only ten players, we have to dispense with the niceties. First, a word about PEDs. I expended many words about PEDs in last year's assessment, but the essence of my position has not changed: They were a part of the game during the time that these players were active. They are a part of baseball history, as much as segregation, the dead ball, the live ball, fifteen-inch mounds, amphetamines, the Reserve Clause, and free agency and collusion were and, in some cases, are. So, in my view, every player on the 2014 ballot, whether implicated with PED usage, suspected of PED usage, or free from PED usage, is qualified.

With that out of the way, let the slashing begin.

Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Paul Lo Duca, Ray Durham, Eric Gagné, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Hideo Nomo, Ritchie Sexson, J.T. Snow, and Mike Timlin: Congratulations, you made it onto the ballot, a ballot bursting with qualified candidates. In a normal year, some of you would merit mention: Sexson reached 300 home runs with 306. Casey was a lifetime .302 hitter in 5066 at-bats and 1531 hits. Gagné still holds the Major League record with 84 consecutive save conversions and is tied with John Smoltz for the most single-season saves in the National League with 55; unfortunately, his PEDs taint will hover over those accomplishments for some time to come. Durham was a good-hitting second baseman who stole 273 bases. Timlin was a fine bullpen warrior who will never get any Hall recognition because the Hall is not structured to recognize role players. Timlin was a middle reliever who also saved 141 games, and although Benitez, with 289 saves, and Todd Jones, with 319 saves, were primarily closers, they are hardly elite.

Nomo was a Rookie of the Year in 1995 and was the first high-profile Japanese player in Major League history, throwing a no-hitter in each league—one amazingly in Coors Field—but despite 1918 strikeouts in 1976.1 innings pitched, he also walked 908 batters and wound up a slightly below-league-average pitcher. Snow's most spectacular play was snagging Dusty Baker's three-year-old son Darren from harm's way at home plate while a play was still in progress during Game Five of the 2002 World Series. As if you couldn't have a bigger stage upon which to perform this feat. (As a San Francisco Giants fan I cringe at that fiasco almost as much as knowing that, in the next game, the Giants were five outs away from winning the World Series but went on to lose to the (then-)Anaheim Angels in seven games. And even if the Giants went on to win World Series in 2010 and 2012, while the Angels have yet to return to the Fall Classic, the memory still stings.)

Of the players on the ballot for the first time, left-hander Kenny Rogers scratched his way to 219 wins in 762 appearances and 474 starts, amounting to 3302.2 innings pitched and a 4.27 earned run average, although his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) ERA, which factors out the effects of a pitcher's fielders behind him, is 4.38, which indicates that those defenders had a hand in his success. Not that Rogers himself was not a fine defender, winning five Gold Gloves and amassing a career 50 defensive runs saved, an impressive feat for a pitcher. Rogers also pitched a perfect game in 1994. A fine career, but Rogers would get little more consideration even on a less-stacked ballot. It would be surprising to see him survive for the 2015 ballot.

Although he is part of a baseball family—his father Felipe was a player and manager—Moisés Alou may be best-known for venting his displeasure at Steve Bartman when that Chicago Cubs fan interfered with a foul ball Alou was chasing in Game Six of the 2003 National League Championship Series against the (then-)Florida Marlins. That incident prolonged the inning for the Marlins, who went on to win the game, the series, and eventually the World Series while the Cubs seemed to perpetuate the misfortunes that have kept them from winning a World Series since 1908. Alou was an excellent hitter throughout his career, compiling a .303/.369/.516 slash line with 2134 hits, 421 doubles, 332 home runs, 1109 runs scored, and 1287 RBI. His peripherals are also solid with a wOBA of .378, OPS+ of 127, and a wRC+ of 129. Although FanGraphs rates Alou more highly in WAR (48.2) than does Baseball Reference (39.7), he is still not in any serious discussion of Hall of Fame-worthy left fielders; Jay Jaffe's JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) rating places him 45th among left fielders.

Jaffe's JAWS rating is kinder to Luis Gonzalez, placing him 24th among left fielders, ahead of Hall of Famers Lou Brock, Chick Hafey (who is also behind Alou), Heinie Manush, and Jim Rice. "Gonzo" had a long career, averaging exactly one hit for each of the 2591 games he played, which included 596 doubles and 354 home runs along with 1412 runs and 1439 RBI. He hit 57 of those home runs in 2001, an outlier year for him as he never hit more than 31 in any other year; this raised questions about whether he had been juicing with steroids, but as I pointed out in last year's ballot evaluation, 2001 was an outlier year for home-run hitting even within the Steroids Era, with players regarded as clean having a career year in home runs alongside players assumed to be on the juice. Gonzalez's slash line of .283/.367/.479, with a wOBA of .364, is not exceptional, as borne out by his strong but non-elite peripherals of a 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+. In another year, Gonzalez may have generated more discussion although he would in any year need to have shown more dominance (he led the league in hits in 1999 with 206, when he batted a sixth-best .336 across Major League Baseball, but otherwise he did not lead the league in any other major categories) or reached loftier career numbers. As it is, both he and Alou will have a difficult time getting five percent of the vote to stay alive for 2015.

Moisés Alou, Luis Gonzalez, and, with a generous assessment, Kenny Rogers approach the borderline of Hall of Fame legacy for the first—and perhaps the only—time. Borderline candidates from previous ballots include Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris, and Lee Smith.

I've written about all four both for the 2012 ballot and for the 2013 ballot, so I'll summarize each briefly. Don Mattingly had an excellent career cut short by injuries, and he lacks either the career numbers or the obvious dominance to overcome that. He dropped 4.6 percentage points on last year's ballot, collecting 13.2 percent of the vote in his 13th year. Given past trends, he seems unlikely to pole-vault into the 75 percent range, and it is possible that he could drop off the ballot this year, one year shy of his final year of eligibility. Lee Smith is hovering around the 50 percent mark; he dropped slightly last year, losing 2.8 percent of the vote, as his years left for eligibility inexorably shrink. As one of the first contemporary closers, meaning the one-inning reliever with that inning typically the ninth, Smith has a case but it is not a convincing one as evidenced by his ballot performance.

Fred McGriff is truly a borderline case—he looks strong within his era, which overlapped the beginning of the Steroids Era, and his numbers are respectable in any era. But as a star he is outshone by superstars; he got 20.7 percent of the vote last year, a decrease of 3.2 percent from the previous year, and although he is going into his 5th year on the ballot this year, he looks to have to contend with many more superstars in the next several years. I go back and forth on McGriff with regularity, which may indicate that at the very least he is not an obvious Hall of Famer.

Jack Morris generates intense discussion that often boils down to the traditionalist versus the analysts. That debate could rage harder this year as this is Morris's final year on the ballot. He did garner 67.7 percent of the vote last year, a slight uptick of 1.1 percent, which put him half a percentage point behind top vote-getter Craig Biggio. Morris received a healthy boost in 2012, jumping 13.1 percent from the previous year's total of 53.5 percent to 66.6 percent. Despite his high-profile postseason heroics, Morris is just above league-average and would be equivalent to Catfish Hunter or Gus Wynn as a Hall of Fame pitcher. However, I think that Morris will be elected this year, pulling a Ralph Kiner by squeaking in on his final chance.

That takes care of half the ballot. The other half of the ballot, 18 players, merits serious Hall of Fame discussion. Ah, but here is the problem: Eighteen candidates, only ten slots. Who to vote for this year—and who can be deferred?