Index
Returning Candidates
As noted previously, there are no more no-doubt Hall of Famers returning from the 2024 BBWAA ballot except for two ridiculously-qualified candidates who would have been elected on their first and only ballot were it not for their pesky performance-enhancing drugs problem.
However, what makes Hall of Fame ballot assessment worthwhile are the "bubble guys," the players with outstanding careers but whose lack of acclaim or recognition presents a challenge to their being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Or not. In that respect, there are several returning candidates who have made encouraging progress toward Cooperstown including one, delivered to the doorstep last year, who has just one more shot to make it through the door. Talk about a cliffhanger.
Outfielders
It's been a half-decade since BBWAA voters elected an outfielder to the Hall of Fame—and in 2020 Larry Walker got in by the skin of his teeth: 76.6 percent of the vote in his final year of eligibility. Along with first-time candidate Ichiro Suzuki, there are three returning outfielders with solid Hall of Fame cases—Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, and Andruw Jones—or even four if you count the steroids guy.
Bobby Abreu
Having squeaked past the five-percent minimum threshold on his first ballot in 2020, Bobby Abreu has at least tripled that support on his last two ballots, but that 15-percent mark means he must quadruple that vote tally in his next five attempts (assuming he remains on a BBWAA ballot until 2030). However, unlike Larry Walker, who was at a similarly moribund spot by his fifth ballot, sabermetric darling Abreu doesn't have a Most Valuable Player Award or three batting titles to burnish his record as does Walker, who made extraordinary leaps on his last three ballots to nose across the Hall of Fame line with 76.6 percent of the vote in his final year.
Career Achievements: Two-time All-Star. One Gold Glove Award. One Silver Slugger Award.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Bases on balls: 1476 (20th). Strikeouts: 1840 (22nd). Doubles: 574 (25th). Times on base: 3979 (49th). Runs created: 1708 (52nd). Extra-base hits: 921 (61st). Stolen bases: 400 (74th). Games played: 2425 (81st). Plate appearances: 10,081 (82nd). Runs scored: 1453 (82nd). Sacrifice flies: 85 (82nd). On-base percentage: .395 (83rd). Runs batted in: 1363 (89th). Offensive bWAR: 61.6 (92nd).
Defense (right field only): Games: 1990 (11th). Putouts: 3733 (11th). Assists: 130 (28th). Errors committed: 71 (28th). Double plays turned: 21 (76th). Range factor/game: 1.94 (81st). Fielding percentage: .982 (94th).
Career Highlights: After two seasons riding the bench with the Houston Astros in 1996 and 1997, Bobby Abreu established himself in Philadelphia as their starting right fielder. In his eight full seasons with the Phillies, from 1998 to 2005, he brandished a .305/.415/.519/.933 slash line, generating a 141 OPS+, as, per season, he averaged 157 games played, 173 hits including 40 doubles and 23 home runs, 104 runs scored, 94 runs batted in, 107 walks, 29 stolen bases, and 5.6 bWAR. But despite leading the Majors in triples (11) in 1999 and the National League in doubles (50) in 2002, Abreu made just two All-Star teams as the Phillies' secret star remained hidden behind Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley.
Dealt to the New York Yankees at the 2006 trading deadline, Abreu helped the Yankees into the postseason. During his two full seasons, 2007 and 2008, in the Bronx, Abreu produced a 116 OPS+ derived from a .289/.370/.458/.828 slash line while scoring at least 100 runs and knocking in 100 more. Now into his decline phase, he played for the Los Angeles Angels from 2009 to the start of 2012, when the team let him go; his roster spot went to Mike Trout. Bobby Abreu had 12 consecutive seasons with 150 or more hits; 12 seasons with 30 or more doubles, ten of them consecutively; nine seasons with 20 or more home runs; eight seasons with 100 or more RBI, seven of them consecutively; and eight consecutive seasons with 100 or more walks.
Verdict: Tucked between Hall of Famers Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero (his Angels teammate), Bobby Abreu's 50.9 JAWS ranks 22nd all-time among right fielders. Overlooked and underrated, Abreu better hope that the easing of the ballot logjam will make him more visible to voters if he is to make greater headway on the ballot in the years he has left.
Carlos Beltrán
Having served penance on his first two ballots for his involvement in the Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal of 2017, Carlos Beltrán nevertheless garnered 46.5 percent during his 2023 debut and snagged 57.1 percent of the vote last year, which might have been his fate even without the scandal as Beltrán, despite winning Rookie of the Year honors in 1999, is not a first-glance Hall of Famer until you look at his accomplishments. He might not make an 18-point leap this year, but any appreciable increase should set his trajectory into Cooperstown sooner rather than later.
Career Achievements: Rookie of the Year. Nine-time All-Star. Three Gold Glove Awards. Two Silver Slugger Awards. Roberto Clemente Award. World Series champion (2017).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Stolen base percentage: 86.43 (10th). Sacrifice flies: 110 (16th). Doubles: 565 (20th). Extra-base hits: 1078 (25th). Strikeouts: 1795 (27th). Outs made: 7423 (34th). Total bases: 4751 (34th), Plate appearances: 11,031 (39th). At-bats: 9768 (39th). Runs batted in: 1587 (41st). Games: 2586 (46th). Home runs: 435 (47th). Runs created: 1731 (48th). Runs scored: 1582 (53rd). Times on base: 3860 (59th). Hits: 2725 (62nd). WAR, position players: 70.1 (70th). Offensive WAR: 66.6 (74th). Bases on balls: 1084 (90th). Win probability added: 35.8 (98th).
Defense (center field only): Range factor/game: 2.70 (22nd). Putouts: 4133 (23rd). Games: 1572 (31st). Double plays turned: 28 (34th). Assists: 108 (35th). Errors committed: 60 (58th).
Career Highlights: A September call-up for Kansas City in 1998, Carlos Beltrán ran away with American League Rookie of the Year honors the following season as the Royals' starting center fielder knocking out a career-high 194 hits including 27 doubles, seven triples, and 22 home runs, while stealing 27 bases, scoring 112 runs, and driving in 108 more runs. From 2001 to 2003, Beltrán posted a .295/.365/.512/.876 slash line, producing a 125 OPS+, as he averaged, per season, 174 hits including 30 doubles, ten triples, 26 home runs, 107 runs scored, 102 RBI, 36 stolen bases, and 5.6 bWAR.
The Royals dealt Beltrán to the then-National League Houston Astros midway through 2004; between the two clubs, he boosted his power numbers with 36 doubles and 38 home runs, producing then-season bests in slugging percentage (.548), OPS (.915), OPS+ (133), and runs scored (121) while establishing his career high in stolen bases (42), which also put him into the 30-30 club for home runs and steals. Essentially a season rental in Houston, he delivered like a franchise player as the Astros advanced to a seven-game NL Championship Series with the St. Louis Cardinals, hitting four home runs each in the NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves and the NLCS to tie Barry Bonds for most home runs in a single postseason.
Beltrán then signed a seven-year, $119 million contract with the New York Mets starting in 2005. In six full years in Queens, Beltrán posted a slash line of .279/.366/.499/.864, good for a 126 OPS+, yet in 2006 he established career highs in home runs (41), runs scored (127), RBI (116), and walks (95) while hitting three home runs in another seven-game NLCS against the Cardinals, although with the bases loaded and two out in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game Seven, Adam Wainwright memorably struck him out looking to end the Mets' season. Beltrán trod the end-of-career circuit with stints for five teams including his final-year reunion with the Astros for their notorious World Series championship.
Verdict: Ranked ninth among center fielders all-time with 57.2 JAWS, Carlos Beltrán, although not as celebrated perhaps because he split the bulk of his 20-year career between the Royals and the Mets while serving time with five other teams, put up the numbers and delivered enough highlights to take his place in Cooperstown. He has served his penance for the Astros' sign-stealing scandal, and he should be voted into the Hall of Fame on this ballot.
Torii Hunter
An excellent although not elite two-way center fielder in his prime, Torii Hunter has proved to be surprisingly resilient on four Hall of Fame ballots so far even if he has yet to exceed his debut percentage of 9.5. With the addition of Curtis Granderson and Adam Jones on this year's ballot, there are now five center fielders in contention for the Hall of Fame, and while "position crowding" shouldn't be a factor, it might impact Hunter's ability to retain the support he has mustered so far.
Career Achievements: Five-time All-Star. Nine Gold Glove Awards. Two Silver Slugger Awards.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Grounded into double plays: 262 (30th). Doubles: 498 (67th). Extra-base hits: 890 (70th). Runs batted in: 1391 (80th). Total bases: 4087 (82nd). Games: 2372 (96th). Home runs: 353 (96th).
Defense (center field only): Fielding percentage: .993 (19th). Putouts: 3948 (30th). Range factor/game: 2.64 (30th). Games: 1523 (33rd). Assists: 78 (73rd). Double plays turned: 18 (91st).
Career Highlights: By 2001, center fielder Torii Hunter had come into his own with the Minnesota Twins, hitting 32 doubles, the first of nine years with 30 or more, 27 home runs, the first of nine seasons with 20 or more, and driving in 92 runs, the first of eight seasons with 90 or more, while winning the first of nine consecutive Gold Glove Awards.
Replicating his offensive output while upping his OPS+ from 102 to 124 in 2002, he made his first All-Star team while also swiping a career-high 23 bases, the first of three years with 20 or more steals. The next year saw him drive in 102 runs, the first of two times he would break the 100-RBI mark. With the Los Angeles Angels for five years starting in 2008, Hunter, had two years with a bWAR of 5.0 or greater, the only times he had reached that 5.0 plateau.
With the Detroit Tigers in 2013 and 2014, Hunter earned his second Silver Slugger Award and his fifth and final All-Star slot as he batted .304 before returning to the Twins for his final big-league year in 2015; he announced his retirement at season's end.
Verdict: With 40.7 JAWS, Torii Hunter is ranked 35th all-time among center fielders, just ahead of Earle Combs, who played seven fewer seasons than Hunter. Frankly, I had him pegged as one-and-done in my 2020 ballot forecast, but he has hung in there as he reaches his midpoint on the BBWAA ballot. Hunter might continue to rally some support, but he is unlikely to become a serious candidate for the Hall of Fame.
Andruw Jones
Like Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones garnered marginal support during his first two ballots starting in 2018 before making decile leaps his next four years until he neared 60 percent in 2023. However, his incremental increase to 61.6 percent last year might signal the limit of his support as he faces just three more chances to reach the vaunted 75-percent mark needed for induction into the Hall of Fame.
Career Achievements: Five-time All-Star. Ten Gold Glove Awards. One Silver Slugger Award.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Strikeouts: 1748 (33rd). Home runs: 434 (48th). At-bats per home run: 17.5 (77th). Extra-base hits: 853 (89th).
Defense (center field only): Total Zone runs: 230 (1st). Putouts: 4456 (15th). Games: 1724 (19th). Defensive WAR: 24.4 (22nd for all positions; 1st among centerfielders). Fielding percentage: .992 (30th). Range factor/game: 2.64 (31st). Assists: 101 (41st).
Career Highlights: Coming up with the Atlanta Braves as a 19-year-old in 1996, Andruw Jones clouted a home run in each of his first two at-bats in Game One of the World Series against the New York Yankees, becoming the youngest player ever to hit a homer in the World Series and just the second-ever to hit two in his first two at-bats. (Gene Tenace was the first.) By 1998, Jones had become the Braves' everyday center fielder and came into his own.
For nine years, from 1998 to 2006, Jones slashed .270/.347/.513/.860, generating a 119 OPS+ and averaging, per year, 31 doubles, 35 home runs, 99 runs scored, 104 runs batted in, and 6.1 bWAR. In 2005, he led the Majors with 51 home runs, the most ever by a Braves hitter in a single season—no small feat on a franchise graced by Hall of Fame sluggers Hank Aaron and Eddie Mathews—and his 128 RBI paced the National League as he was named to the fourth of his five All-Star squads and was the runner-up to Albert Pujols for the NL's Most Valuable Player Award.
But as impressive as his offensive output was, Jones's defensive prowess in center field was peerless—and may be the greatest in baseball history. From 1998 to 2002, he made at least 400 putouts every year, leading the NL in 2002 and the Major Leagues in the four previous years; in addition, he paced the NL in Total Zone runs in 2002 and the Majors in the four previous years as well. In 2007, he led the NL in putouts again with 396. During Jones's nine-year stretch, he accumulated 22.0 of his career 24.4 dWAR, truly deserving of the Gold Glove he was awarded in every year of this stretch.
However, Jones, despite winning his tenth Gold Glove in 2007, began his plunge from Mount Olympus as his OPS+ dropped to 87, well below league-average. He finished his career with disappointing stints for four MLB team and even played two years in Japan before attempting MLB comebacks in 2015 and 2016, but in 2016 he finally called it quits.
By any measure, Andruw Jones is one of baseball's greatest defensive center fielders. But will that and a nine-year hitting peak convince voters to check his box for the Hall?
Verdict: With 54.6 JAWS, Andruw Jones ranks 11th all-time among center fielders, but his viability as a Hall of Famer hinges on how impactful was his nine-year peak from 1998 to 2006, which saw him generate 54.5 of his career 62.7 bWAR. Initially, I did not consider Jones a Hall of Famer, but I have been on the peak-heavy bandwagon since. This year will see if more writers are jumping aboard, or if he has hit the outfield wall in term of support.
Manny Ramirez
Time is running out for Manny Ramirez, who has yet to attract more than one-third of the vote in eight attempts. As one of the first players to run afoul of Major League Baseball's revamped drug policy in the latter half of the 2000s, he had no valid excuse to offer, and given that the attitude of voters has stiffened into resolute resistance to player candidates connected to performance-enhancing drugs, Manny will continue to be out-of-luck Manny for two more years before disappearing into PED limbo.
Career Achievements: Twelve-time All-Star. Nine Silver Slugger Awards. One batting title. Two-time World Series champion (2004, 2007); one-time World Series Most Valuable Player (2004).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Slugging percentage: .585 (12th). On-base plus slugging percentages: .996 (12th). Home runs: 555 (15th). At-bats per home run: 14.9 (16th). Extra-base hits: 1122 (18th). Runs batted in: 1831 (20th). Runs created: 2005 (22nd). Strikeouts: 1813 (25th). Total bases: 4826 (30th). Adjusted OPS+: 174 (31st). Win probability added: 56.1 (31st). Doubles: 547 (34th). Offensive WAR: 81.8 (34th). On-base percentage: .411 (35th). Bases on balls: 1329 (41st). Grounded into double play: 243 (43rd). Times on base: 4012 (48th). Runs scored: 1544 (61st). WAR position players: 69.3 (74th). Hit by pitch: 109 (78th). Hits: 2574 (91st).
Defense (left field only): Games: 1037 (70th).
Career Highlights: Breaking into the Major Leagues with Cleveland, Manny Ramirez was integral to the Indians' wrecking crews of the 1990s that made it to a pair of World Series in 1995 and 1997 before falling short both times. Signing with the Boston Red Sox, Ramirez again proved crucial to bringing the Sox their first World Series championship in 84 years in 2004, which saw him being named the Series' MVP, and another World Series win in 2007. Along the way, he led the Majors in runs batted in (165) in 1999 with Cleveland, and with Boston he won a batting title (.349) in 2002 and led the American League in home runs (43) in 2004.
Any further career details are beside the point since Manny Ramirez, along with Álex Rodríguez, has no chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame.
Verdict: Manny Ramirez ranks 10th all-time among left fielders with 54.6 JAWS, a meaningless point since, unlike the previous generation of PED Penitents such as Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens who can claim to have resided in the "Wild, Wild West" of the Steroids Era with little clear (no pun intended) delineation or direction, Ramirez knew of (or should have known about) the penalties stipulated by MLB's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program. Thus, he is unlikely to be elected to the Hall of Fame by either the BBWAA or a veterans committee.
Infielders
Unlike their brethren in the outfield, infielders have enjoyed Hall of Fame recognition in the last five years with all but second basemen getting the nod at least once. In fact, the writers have elected only three keystone sackers this century, with Craig Biggio the latest one—and he was elected a decade ago. Chase Utley is the sole second baseman returning to the ballot, but he will have competition from two newcomers, Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia, or three if you include Ben Zobrist. As noted previously, there are no full-time first basemen on the writers ballot for the first time since the century began (Todd Helton made sure of that last year).
Shortstop is getting crowded with first-timers Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki joining returnees Álex Rodríguez, Jimmy Rollins, and Omar Vizquel, but none of them has a lock on being chosen. Rodríguez is as ridiculously qualified as he is radioactive thanks to PED; Vizquel is almost as toxic and is a borderline case in any event; Ramirez and Rollins can't make convincing arguments; and Tulowitzki is a hard-luck case because of injuries. At third base, David Wright faces no competition, but like Pedroia and Tulo, his kryptonite are the health issues that weakened those two.
Álex Rodríguez
Unlike Manny Ramirez, Álex Rodríguez is on his fourth Hall of Fame ballot and has managed to pull in one-third of the voters on his previous three ballots. But seeing that A-Rod is probably the most egregious PED Penitent extant, having been suspended for an entire season (and it was a reduced suspension), his Cooperstown fate is also a foregone conclusion: Fat chance.
Career Achievements: Fourteen-time All-Star. Three-time Most Valuable Player. Two Gold Glove Awards. Ten Silver Slugger Awards. One batting title. World Series champion (2009).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Runs batted in: 2086 (4th). Home runs: 696 (5th). Strikeouts: 2287 (5th). Extra-base hits: 1275 (7th). Total bases: 5813 (7th). Runs scored: 2021 (8th). Runs created: 2274 (9th). WAR position players: 117.6 (12th). Offensive WAR: 115.3 (13th). Sacrifice flies: 111 (14th). Hit by pitch: 176 (15th). Plate appearances: 12,207 (16th). Times on base: 4629 16th). Wins Above Replacement: 117.6 (16th). At-bats: 10,566 (19th). Outs made: 7915 (19th). Hits: 3115 (23rd). At-bats per home run: 15.2 (24th). Games played: 2784 (28th). Slugging percentage: .550 (29th). Win probability added: 59.2 (29th). Grounded into double play: 261 (31st). Doubles: 548 (33rd). Bases on balls: 1338 (37th). On-base plus slugging percentages: .930 (43rd). Stolen base percentage: 81.24 (56th). Singles: 1840 (80th). Adjusted OPS+: 140 (84th).
Defense (shortstop only): Fielding percentage: .977 (35th). Double plays turned: 853 (64th). Games: 1272 (94th). Assists: 3605 (99th).
Career Highlights: If only Alex Rodríguez hadn't exceeded his rookie limits with the Seattle Mariners in 1995, he would have been a lock for Rookie of the Year in 1996, when he led the Major Leagues in hitting (.358) and doubles (54) and the American League in runs scored (141) while belting 36 home runs, knocking in 123 runs, and collecting a career-high 215 hits. That seems to be the only award or recognition that eluded A-Rod in his 22-year career.
And if only Rodríguez hadn't been suspended for the entire 2014 season; otherwise, he would have surely slugged more than 700 home runs instead of falling just short at 696 long flies, seemingly the only statistical milestone, barring a .300 batting average, that he didn't achieve among all his fantasy numbers that contribute to the fantasy that his plaque will ever reside in the Hall of Fame.
Even with several more years on the ballot likely, Álex Rodríguez has already seen his chances to be elected to the Hall sail over the fence like one of his 696 home-run blasts.
Verdict: Strictly by the numbers, Álex Rodríguez is ridiculously qualified to be a Hall of Famer, with a good chance to have been a unanimous first-ballot choice. It is equally ridiculous to think that he stands a chance to be voted into the Hall by the BBWAA or any subsequent veterans committee. The only relevant option is watching to see if his support remains constant or if it waxes or wanes as, like Prometheus chained to the rock to have his liver eternally eaten by an eagle, he undergoes this charade. The only consolation is that, unlike Prometheus, this will end in a few more years.
Jimmy Rollins
Debuting on the 2022 BBWAA ballot, Jimmy Rollins polled nearly ten percent and made incremental gains on each of the next two ballots as he attracted just under 15 percent last year. He will have to muster greater support to make the 75-percent minimum by his tenth try, so this ballot, even with six more after this one (assuming his support doesn't fall below five percent), is one on which he should be developing a groundswell.
Career Achievements: Three-time All-Star. Most Valuable Player. Four Gold Glove Awards. One Silver Slugger Award. Roberto Clemente Award. World Series champion.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Outs made: 7175 (44th). Stolen bases: 470 (46th). Stolen base percentage: 81.74 (49th). Doubles: 511 (56th). At-bats: 9294 (58th). Plate appearances: 10,240 (72nd). Extra-base hits: 857 (85th). Runs scored: 1421 (88th).
Defense (shortstop only): Fielding percentage: .983 (4th). Games: 2227 (6th). Double plays turned: 1249 (12th). Assists: 6139 (20th). Putouts: 2982 (46th). Total Zone runs: 38 (53rd).
Career Highlights: Jimmy Rollins played with the Phillies for 15 of his 17 years in the Majors, and for five years, from 2004 to 2008, the switch-hitting shortstop who batted leadoff posted a .286/.342/.468/.811 slash line, yielding a 105 OPS+, while averaging, per season, 189 hits including 40 doubles, 12 triples, 18 home runs, 115 runs scored, 73 RBI, 39 stolen bases, 5.1 bWAR, and 2.0 dWAR, capping off the 2008 season with a World Series ring as he helped the Phillies to their second-ever world championship. He led the National League in triples four times and in runs scored and stolen bases once each.
Offensively, "J-Roll" hit his stride in 2007 with his .296/.344/.531/.875 slash line, which produced a 119 OPS+; all save his .344 on-base percentage were career highs as were his 212 hits, 20 triples, 30 home runs, 139 runs scored, and 94 runs driven in. By hitting 30 homers and stealing 41 bases, he joined the 30-30 club, and by hitting 38 doubles and 20 triples, he joined the even more exclusive 20-20-20-20 club whose only other members are Frank Schulte, Willie Mays, and Curtis Granderson, who also joined in 2007.
Rollins's offense dipped in 2008, although winning a World Series was undoubtedly just compensation even if the Phillies could not defend their title in the 2009 World Series against the New York Yankees. He finished his 17-year career by playing a year each with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago White Sox.
Verdict: With a career JAWS of 40.1, Jimmy Rollins ranks 34th all-time among shortstops, just ahead of marginal Hall of Famers Travis Jackson, Phil Rizzuto, and Rabbit Maranville. In my 2020 to 2025 ballot forecast, I figured J-Roll to be a one-and-done, but he has rallied enough support to stay on the ballot so far. This year may tell just how solid that support may be.
Chase Utley
Although he doesn't have the same bling as his double-play partner Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley garnered 28.8 percent of the vote on his first ballot last year, and only seeing how well he does this year can begin to plot his trajectory. Like his other teammate on the ballot, Bobby Abreu, Utley is a sabermetric darling, albeit one who has made the strongest start toward the Hall of Fame finish line than the other two.
Career Achievements: Six-time All-Star. Four Silver Slugger Awards. World Series champion.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Stolen base percentage: 87.50 (6th). Hit by pitch: 204 (9th). WAR position players: 64.5 (98th).
Defense (second base only): Total Zone runs: 60 (17th). Games: 1743 (26th). Assists: 4535 (38th). Putouts: 3426 (40th). Defensive WAR: 17.3 (80th). Fielding percentage: .982 (92nd).
Career Highlights: Swiftly fulfilling expectations, Chase Utley became the Phillies' starting second baseman midway through 2005, and for a full decade, from 2005 to 2014, the "Silver Fox" knocked out a .288/.374/.492/.866 slash line, producing a 127 OPS+, as for ten years every season he averaged 147 hits, 31 doubles, 21 home runs, 88 runs scored, 81 runs batted in, 13 stolen bases, 16 hits by pitch, 6.0 bWAR, and 1.7 dWAR while making five consecutive All-Star squads and winning four consecutive Silver Slugger Awards.
Utley was also crucial to the Phillies back-to-back World Series appearances in 2008 and 2009. In the Phillies' five-game victory over the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008, he hit two home runs, scored five runs, knocked in four more, walked five times, and stole three bases while delivering a late-inning defensive gem in Game Five that cemented the Phillies' second-ever World Series championship. And while the Phillies lost their title defense to the New York Yankees in 2009, Utley did his part: All six of his hits were for extra bases, with five of those hits home runs as he tied Reggie Jackson for most home runs in a single World Series.
Entering his age-36 season in 2015, Chase Utley played for the Los Angeles Dodger until he retired after the 2018 season.
Like his former teammate Bobby Abreu, second baseman Chase Utley's Hall of Fame case rests on being a sabermetric darling, although the old "eye test" might boost his chances.
Verdict: Ranked 12th all-time among second baseman with 56.9 JAWS, Chase Utley's chances for the Hall of Fame rest equally on advanced metrics and the old "eye test" since his only notable league-leading offensive mark is 131 runs scored in 2006, although he did lead the Majors in hits by pitch from 2007 to 2009 en route to 204 career potentially painful tickets to first base, ninth all-time.
Omar Vizquel
Even before scandals began to erode Omar Vizquel's Hall of Fame support, the switch-hitting shortstop was always going to be a tough sell, and with just three more chances to have the writers elect him, that train to Cooperstown may have already left without him. "Little O" was an old-school shortstop whose defensive play was paramount as he typically batted second in the lineup, an old-school table-setter who led the league in sacrifice bunts four times while chalking up 256 in his career, 35th all-time. The advent of "super shortstops" such as Cal Ripken, Jr., Álex Rodríguez, and Derek Jeter, who combined offensive power with defensive skills, rendered him quaint, if not obsolete; nevertheless, Vizquel played for just under a quarter-century and across four decades.
Career Achievements: Three-time All-Star. Eleven Gold Glove Awards.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Offense: Outs made: 8433 (8th). Games: 2968 (13th). Singles: 2264 (17th). At-bats: 10,586 (18th). Caught stealing: 167 (19th). Plate appearances: 12,013 (22nd). Sacrifice hits: 256 (35th). Hits: 2877 (44th). Sacrifice flies: 94 (53rd). Stolen bases: 404 (72nd). Runs scored: 1445 (83rd).
Defense (shortstop only): Double plays turned: 1734 (1st). Fielding percentage: .985 (1st). Games: 2709 (1st). Assists: 7676 (3rd). Total Zone runs: 130 (5th). Defensive WAR: 29.5 (9th). Putouts: 4102 (11th).
Career Highlights: Beginning his 24-year career with the Mariners in 1989, Omar Vizquel played in at least 136 games in four of his five seasons in Seattle, earning his first Gold Glove in 1993, his final year before being traded to the Cleveland Indians, where he became the everyday shortstop on those powerhouse Cleveland teams that made two World Series appearances in three years from 1995 to 1997.
In his 11 years with the Indians, Vizquel hit his peak offensively at the end of the century: For a five-year stretch from 1996 to 2000, he scratched out a .297/.369/.393/.762 slash line that yielded a 95 OPS+ while he averaged, per year, 170 hits, 30 doubles, 97 runs scored, 36 stolen bases, and 3.8 bWAR. His best year was in 1999, when he established career highs across his slash line (.333/.397/.436/.833), OPS+ (111), hits (191), and bWAR (6.0) while matching his best mark in doubles (36) and making his second All-Star team.
Vizquel also had notable offensive seasons in 2002 as he developed a power stroke with a career-best 14 home runs to go with 31 doubles while driving in a career-high 72 runs, generating a 104 OPS+, the second and last time he was above league-average, while being named to his third and final All-Star squad, and in 2004, when he batted .291, had an OPS+ one tick under the 100 league average, and posted a 4.0 bWAR. Starting in 2005, Vizquel played four seasons for the San Francisco Giants, hitting .295 in 2006 as he was the Giants' everyday shortstop until 2007, when he turned 40. He continued to play as a part-timer until age 45 with the Texas Rangers, Chicago White Sox, and Toronto Blue Jays.
Of course, Omar Vizquel's primary value came as a defensive shortstop, and he is the lifetime leader in games played, fielding percentage, and double plays turned while ranking among the leaders in putouts, assists, Total Zone runs, and dWAR. He also accrued 49 defensive runs saved, notable because DRS wasn't introduced until 2003, when Vizquel was already in his age-36 year. Having won 11 Gold Gloves, nine of them consecutively from 1993 to 2002, he is second only to Ozzie Smith's 13 among shortstops. Smith was elected to the Hall of Fame in 2002, on his first ballot, by 91.7 percent of BBWAA voters.
Shortstop Omar Vizquel's sterling fielding ability still kept him on the Cooperstown borderline before scandal allegations--after his career was over--are likely to keep him out of the Hall.
Verdict: Ranked 45th all-time among shortstops with 36.2 JAWS, Omar Vizquel can only look up to marginal Hall of Fame shortstops Travis Jackson, Phil Rizzuto, and Rabbit Maranville. Ranked by dWAR, Vizquel is seventh, with only Mark Belanger among the top six not in the Hall of Fame, and "the Blade," who batted .228 with 20 home runs in an 18-year career, was a one-and-done in 1988 with just 3.7 percent of the vote.
Extremely few players have been inducted into the Hall primarily for their defensive prowess. Omar Vizquel seemed to be on track for serious Cooperstown consideration before scandals derailed him, and it is unlikely that he will generate enough steam to bring himself into the station before his time on the ballot runs out.
David Wright
Yet another potential Hall of Famer whose journey to Cooperstown was derailed by multiple injuries, David Wright was diagnosed with spinal stenosis in 2015, his age-32 year, and from then until a token two-game valedictory showing in 2018 before retiring, he played in just 77 games while missing all of 2017. "Captain America," earning that moniker for his stellar play in the 2013 World Baseball Classic, managed to garner 6.2 percent of the vote in his ballot debut last year, but whether this is the start of a low-level campaign for serious consideration or a generous nod to an excellent if not Hall of Fame-caliber career will become clearer after this year's ballot results are revealed.
Career Achievements: Seven-time All-Star. Two Gold Glove Awards. Two Silver Slugger Awards.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards:
Defense (third base only): Games: 1572 (38th). Assists: 2946 (45th). Double plays turned: 237 (58th). Putouts: 1087 (79th). Errors committed: 190 (90th).
Career Highlights: Debuting in 2004 with the New York Mets, the only team he ever played with, David Wright was the Mets' full-time third baseman by 2005, posting a robust slash line of .306/.388/.523/.912 with a 140 OPS+, 42 doubles, 27 home runs, the first of five years with 25 or more dingers; 99 runs scored; 102 runs driven in, the first of five years with 100 or more RBI; and 4.8 bWAR; moreover, with 160 games played, he demonstrated durability as he had six seasons with at least 150 games played.
Wright replicated his offensive output in 2006 while the popular Mets star made the first of five consecutive All-Star teams. For a nine-year stretch, from 2005 to 2013, Wright produced a .302/.384/.505/.890 slash line, generating a 138 OPS+, as he averaged, per season, 165 hits, 36 doubles, 23 home runs, 90 runs scored, 93 runs knocked in, 73 walks, 20 stolen bases, and 4.9 bWAR while earning back-to-back Gold Glove and Silver Slugger Awards in 2007 and 2008.
Those Gold Gloves might have been, as the sardonic saying goes, as much for his hitting as for his defense: In 1572 games at third base, Wright finished with –68 Total Zone runs and –24 defensive runs saved while his career dWAR is 0.3.
By 2015, David Wright was struggling to stay on the field, and while he did homer in Game Three of the World Series against the Kansas City Royals, the only game the Mets won, he missed all of 2017 before making his farewell cameo at the end of the 2018 season.
Verdict: Ranked 27th all-time among third basemen with 44.3 JAWS, David Wright is a better bet than marginal Hall of Famers George Kell and Pie Traynor but falls short of a number of deserving hot-corner aces ahead of him on that ranking. His outcome this year may show if last year's support was a fluke or if a groundswell among voters is building, although it is likely that any groundswell will not build to the 75 percent needed for election to the Hall.
Starting Pitchers
After punching the Cooperstown tickets of eight starting pitchers during the 2010s, the BBWAA hasn't elected any starters since 2019. Moreover, of the 14 returning candidates, only two, Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte, are starting pitchers—and while the addition of Félix Hernández and CC Sabathia doubles that number, both, particularly Sabathia, could leapfrog over Buehrle and Pettitte by drawing support away from them.
Mark Buehrle
Mark Buehrle's support on the BBWAA ballot—attracting about nine percent of the voters over four years—has been as surprising as the career that put him on the ballot in the first place. Making his debut in the teeth of the Steroids Era, the soft-tossing southpaw proved to be an innings eater par excellence, an old-school battler with 15 consecutive years starting at least 30 games and 14 consecutive years of pitching at least 200 innings while notching 33 career complete games and 10 career shutouts, two of which were no-hitters, with the latter one a perfect game, all capped by helping the Chicago White Sox in 2005 to their first World Series championship in 86 years.
Career Achievements: Five-time All-Star. Four Gold Glove Awards. World Series champion (2005).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards: Double plays turned: 53 (28th). Home runs allowed: 361 (28th). Games started: 493 (54th). Earned runs allowed: 1391 (62nd). Hits allowed: 3472 (66th). Pitcher WAR: 60.0 (66th). Wins: 214 (93rd). Batters faced: 13,705 (99th). Innings pitched: 3283.3 (99th).
Career Highlights: Debuting in 2000 with the Chicago White Sox, Mark Buehrle became a full-time starting pitcher the next year, starting 490 straight games in his 16-year career. For a 12-year stretch, from 2001 to 2012, Buehrle won 170 games with a 3.81 ERA and a 119 ERA+ as he averaged, per year, 33 starts, 219 innings pitched, 124 strikeouts, and just 49 bases on balls—the left-hander walked just 2.0 batters per nine innings pitched for his career—as he posted a 2.54 strikeout-to-walk ratio; during that period, he also recorded 28 complete games and 8 shutouts including his two no-hitters. Buehrle was also named to four All-Star teams while he helped the White Sox into their four-game sweep of the Houston Astros (then in the NL) in the first World Series victory for the South Siders in 86 years.
Late in his career, he was recognized for his outstanding fielding as he won four straight Gold Glove Awards from 2009 to 2012. Buehrle led AL pitchers in assists four times before he led the Majors in assists (47) in 2012. He also completed four seasons without committing an error, and his career fielding percentage of .973 is 20 points higher than the league's .953 during his career. Buehrle also racked up 87 defensive runs saved during the 13 years of his career that DRS had been tabulated.
Mark Buehrle finished his career pitching one year for the Miami Marlins in 2012 and three years with the Toronto Blue Jays, with whom he made his fifth All-Star team in 2014 and reached the 200-win milestone in his final year, 2015, which also saw him pitch four complete games including his tenth and last career shutout, before retiring.
Verdict: With 47.4 S-JAWS, Mark Buehrle ranks 79th all-time among starting pitchers, two ticks above Andy Pettitte, also on this ballot, and one tick above Hall of Famer Joe McGinnity, who pitched just ten seasons during the dead-ball era.
With only one year of Cy Young Award consideration, in 2005, and no high-profile leaderboard presence beyond games started and innings pitched, two years each for league-leadership—and four years leading the league in hits allowed—he was a consummate compiler who, despite amassing 60.0 bWAR, lacked dominance or distinction. Perhaps his modest support is a nod to his old-school profile, and with the ballot logjam easing he might garner more votes, but it's hard to see Mark Buehrle rallying sufficient support to be elected to the Hall of Fame.
Andy Pettitte
If Mark Buehrle was a low-profile compiler, then Andy Pettitte was a high-profile one who was integral to five World Series championships with the New York Yankees. Indeed, Pettitte's career postseason record of 44 starts and 276.2 innings pitched across all brackets, which netted him a 19–11 win-loss record and a 3.81 ERA, is a robust season's worth of work by itself that is a scaled-down mirror of his career output.
But although the left-hander with the Hall of Fame pickoff move—98 runners nailed in his 18-year career—had four top-five Cy Young Award finishes including a close runner-up in 1996, he never seemed to be the go-to arm of the staff. In six BBWAA ballot appearances, Pettitte has managed at best 17.0 percent support in 2023 that dipped slightly last year, which seems to indicate that voters are not convinced that he is a Hall of Fame-caliber starting pitcher. His PED taint from his admitted use of human growth hormone may also be a residual bias factor. While quantum leaps from the doldrums in a candidate's last few ballots is not unheard-of, Andy Pettitte may find himself hoping for an appeal by a veterans committee after striking out with the writers.
Career Achievements: Three-time All-Star. Five-time World Series champion (1996, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2009).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards: Games started: 521 (42nd). Wins: 256 (43rd). Strikeouts: 2448 (46th). Earned runs allowed: 1418 (58th). Pitcher WAR: 60.7 (63rd). Win-loss percentage: .626 (72nd). Hits allowed: 3448 (74th). Win probability added: 24.2 (80th). Batters faced: 14,074 (89th). Innings pitched: 3316.0 (93rd).
Career Highlights: Debuting as a starting pitcher with the New York Yankees in 1995, Andy Pettitte began his 18-year unbroken streak of posting a win-loss percentage of .500 or better while he struck out at least 100 hitters in all but three seasons. In 1996, he led the American League in wins (21) against just eight losses while notching 5.6 bWAR, the first of only three years in which he generated bWAR better than 3.8, and finished second to Pat Hentgen in Cy Young voting; he also made the first of three All-Star teams, all as a Yankee.
Pettitte's 1997 season was even better with a career-best 8.4 bWAR while his 2.88 ERA was just the first of two years with a sub-3.00 ERA (in a qualifying season). In 2004, he jumped to the National League for three years with the Houston Astros and in 2005 he won 17 games and lost just nine, a .654 win-loss percentage, as he delivered a 2.39 ERA, a 177 ERA+, both career bests, and 6.8 bWAR as a key component of the Astros first (and only) NL pennant-winning team, which was swept by the Chicago White Sox in the World Series.
Returning to the Bronx in 2007, Pettitte won his fifth World Series ring in 2009, and the following year he made his third and final All-Star squad in limited action as in 21 starts he posted a sparking 11–3 win-loss record and a 3.28 ERA in 129.0 innings pitched. Pettitte then announced his retirement, and he did sit out the 2011 season, but he returned in Yankee pinstripes for two more seasons before exiting for good after 2013.
Verdict: With a 47.2 S-JAWS, Andy Pettitte ranks 82nd all-time among starting pitchers, a few spots ahead of Yankees left-hander Whitey Ford, with whom Pettitte shares a good deal of postseason glory, but whether that will be enough to convince more voters to check his box remains to be seen. Another intriguing wrinkle is the effect that CC Sabathia's ballot debut will have on Pettitte's chances. As noted previously, Sabathia, another Yankees southpaw, established a career resume that resembles Pettitte's in many aspects including at least 250 career wins, although CC did win a Cy Young Award and passed the 3000-strikeout milestone. Will Sabathia boost Pettitte's stature? Or will Pettitte hold Sabathia down? We'll find out, maybe, in January.
Relief Pitchers
Of the eight relief pitchers elected to the Hall of Fame, all except Lee Smith were voted in by the BBWAA, which came within five votes of electing Billy Wagner last year. And while nothing is ever certain until it happens, Wagner's chances seem strong, and the addition of Fernando Rodney to this year's ballot is unlikely to pose a challenge to them or to Francisco Rodríguez's chances although Rodríguez still has a long way to go.
Francisco Rodríguez
One of eight relief pitchers with at least 400 saves, Francisco Rodríguez led the league in saves three times and set the single-season record with 62 in 2008. "K-Rod" polled nearly 11 percent on his 2023 ballot debut although he dipped three percent last year. That may represent cooling from initial enthusiasm or just year-to-year fluctuation. The addition of Fernando Rodney as another reliever on the ballot shouldn't draw votes from Rodríguez's support, but a push to boost Billy Wagner on his final year on the ballot might.
Career Achievements: Six-time All-Star. World Series champion (2002).
Career Top 100 Leaderboards: Saves: 437 (6th). Games finished: 677 (9th). Games: 948 (21st).
Career Highlights: After electrifying the baseball world as a rookie during the Anaheim Angels' World Series-winning postseason in 2002, Francisco Rodríguez served as Troy Percival's setup man, striking out 123 hitters in 84.0 innings pitched in 2004, before becoming the Angels' closer the following year as his 45 saves led the American League. He put up three more seasons with at least 40 saves and led the Majors in 2006 with 47 and in 2008 with 62, his record-setting year.
In his four years as the Angels' closer, "Frankie" averaged, per year, 69 appearances and 49 innings pitched, 49 saves, and 89 strikeouts while posting a 2.35 ERA, a 190 ERA+, 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, and 2.7 bWAR. In his seven years in Anaheim, he was selected to three All-Star teams.
As a free agent, Rodríguez joined the New York Mets in 2009, but despite making his first National League All-Star squad, his performance was spotty. Professionally, he rebounded somewhat in 2010, but an off-field domestic altercation, a possibly related injury that required surgery, and a suspension tarnished his reputation. He bounced to the Milwaukee Brewers, then to the Baltimore Orioles, then back to Milwaukee, where he was picked for back-to-back All-Star teams in 2014 and 2015 as he saved 82 games across both seasons. With the Detroit Tigers in 2016, he recorded 44 saves, pushing him across the 400-save threshold, before his Major League career ended after the 2017 season.
Verdict: Mercurial and occasionally brilliant, Francisco Rodríguez ranks 13th all-time with an R-JAWS of 21.1, one tick higher than Hall of Famer Lee Smith, who spent 15 fruitless years on the BBWAA ballot before the veterans committee elected him. Even in the short time between Smith's election in 2019 and now, thinking about the stature of relief pitchers has been changing quickly—even the veterans committee was unanimous in electing Smith—and Rodríguez should poll enough support to keep him on the ballot for continuing evaluation.
Billy Wagner
It's do-or-die time for Billy Wagner as 73.8 percent of the writers delivered him to the doorstep of baseball immortality last year without actually voting him into the Hall of Fame, and unless the fireballing southpaw reliever can muster those additional votes in this, his final year on the BBWAA ballot, his Cooperstown fate will be left in the hands of some future veterans committee. After hovering around ten percent in his first three years, "Billy the Kid" began to build support until he reached the 50-percent threshold in 2022, and barring any kind of last-minute scandal that could adversely influence voters, he may indeed become the ninth relief pitcher to be elected to the Hall. But as another Hall of Famer once noted, it ain't over 'til it's over, so don't hold your breath.
Career Achievements: Seven-time All-Star.
Career Top 100 Leaderboards: Games finished: 703 (6th). Saves: 422 (8th). Games: 853 (41st). Win probability added: 29.1 (48th).
Career Highlights: Appearing in one-third of an inning with the Houston Astros in 1995, Billy Wagner became a full-time roster player in 1997, appearing in 62 games, saving 23 games, and, in 66.1 innings, striking out 106 batters for a 14.4 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, the first of four seasons with 100 or more strikeouts and four seasons with a 14.0 or better SO/9. Indeed, the fireballing left-hander was mowing down hitters with a 100-mph fastball and a 90-mph slider as he never posted an earned run average above 3.00 save for his 2000 season.
In ten seasons in which he made 50 or more appearances and pitched 50 or more innings, Wagner had nine seasons with an ERA+ of 150 or better, and four seasons with a sub-2.00 ERA that generated an ERA+ of 247 or better. And yet Wagner, despite seven All-Star appearances, seemingly flew under the radar, leading the Majors in games finished in two years but amassing 40 or more saves just twice.
On the threshold of immortality in his final year of eligibility, Billy Wagner knows the pressure of high-leverage situations as the greatest left-handed relief pitcher in baseball history.
In the postseason, he was a disaster, posting a 10.03 ERA in 14 postseason games and 11.2 innings pitched overall. Yet in 853 regular-season games, all in relief, Wagner limited hitters to a .187/.262/.296/.558 slash line while striking out 1196 batters in 903.0 innings pitched for a career 11.9 SO/9, and by issuing just 300 walks, 26 of those intentional, he finished with a shade under a four-to-one strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Verdict: Billy Wagner's R-JAWS of 24.9 ranks him as sixth all-time among relief pitchers. The five above him, ranging from pioneer Hoyt Wilhelm and hybrid Dennis Eckersley to old-school fireman Goose Gossage and modern closers Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera, are all in the Hall of Fame. After a sluggish start, Wagner now finds himself on the doorstep of the Hall of Fame, and it would be a damned shame if a handful of voters cannot be persuaded to check his box for Cooperstown on his final ballot.
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