50 Active Potential Basketball Hall of Famers
Our Basketball Hall of Fame monitor for Basketball looks at the following criteria:
The most significant factor we look at is how each active player measures up to the last fourteen players who were chosen. To be specific, we are focusing only on players who were voted through the conventional means and not through any special committee. What this means that no Direct-Elect Committee Inductees will part of the comparisons. The Direct-Elect categories are Contributors, Early African-American Pioneers, International, and Veterans. Please note that at present, we are not ranking women, but may make a separate list in the future.
Inspired by Jay Jaffe’s JAWS statistic that looks at the best seven-year stretch of a baseball player according to bWAR, we are doing the same with current basketball players. Specifically, we compiled the average PER, Win Shares and VORP for each of the past Hall of Famers based on their best seven-year period. The additional thinking behind this is that in Basketball, there is an additional focus on periods of greatness as opposed to sports like Baseball, where compiling statistics is more glorified.
As opposed to what we have done with Football, we are not isolating these metrics by their position as the PER, Win Shares and VORP considers everything.
We are also looking at the amount of All-Star Games and All-NBA Selections. In terms of the All-NBA and All-Defensive Selections, we are compiling in a weighted fashion. In terms of Third Team All-NBA Selections, one point will be assigned, Second Team All-NBA Selections will have two points will be granted, and First Team All-NBA Selections will have three points.
So, let’s continue!
We have made one huge change, as we added the members from the 2022 Class, and focused exclusively on the last five years. This has generated a pool of 17, players, who we are looking at.
The 17 players from the last five induction classes who we are using for the composite averages are:
Ray Allen, Chris Bosh, Kobe Bryant, Maurice Cheeks, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, Manu GinobiliTim Hardaway, Grant Hill, Jason Kidd, Sidney Moncreif, Steve Nash, Paul Pierce, Jack Sikma, Ben Wallace, Chris Webber and Paul Westphal
With the addition of Ginobili and Hardaway, the Averages have all gone down, but remember that a year ago, they exploded with Garnett, Bryant and Duncan joining.
Here are the averages:
Based on their elite seven-year stretch the average PER of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 21.4. In our previous tally, it was 22.5.
Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average Win Shares of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 70.0. In our previous tally, it was 70.9.
Based on their elite seven-year stretch, the average VORP of the last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 32.4, slightly up from 32.0 last year.
With All-Star and All-NBA Selections, we look at the entire career of the player.
The average All-Star Selections of the last 16 Modern Era Hall of Famers is 8.3, down from 9.4 last year.
The average All-NBA Selections (based on the pointed average of one for a Third Team, two for a Second Team and three for a First Team Selection) is 11.9, again significantly lower than the 14.6 from last year.
We are also adding NBA Championships. Often, players in this team sport more than any other (except for NFL Quarterbacks) are judged by the number of rings they have. Perhaps, that shouldn't be as regarded as it is, considering the average amount of titles of our last 17 Modern Era Hall of Famers is a little more than 1. Specifically, it is 1.4, which is way higher than the .79 it was two years ago.
Wrapping this up in a bow, the six variables we are looking at Elite Period PER, Elite Period Win Shares, Elite Period VORP, All-Star Games, Weighted All-Pro Selections, NBA Championships.
This is all simple enough, right?
A few more notes before we begin:
As the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame recognizes College and International accomplishments, we will mention those if any are significant. Those add-ons can (and have) pushed a bubble candidate to immortality in Springfield.
This list is based on the beginning of the 2023-24 Season:
Please remember that this list is based on accomplishments and not necessarily future potential. Think of it as where they stand if their career ended today.
Any asterisk in front of a statistic indicates that this metric exceeds the average.
**In front of a player means that the seven-year elite period was up to last season and could extend, thus potentially increasing their averages.
***In front of a player means that he has yet to play seven seasons.