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Kirk Buchner, "The Committee Chairman", is the owner and operator of the site. Kirk can be contacted at [email protected] .
The Don Mattingly Debate: 2015
Dec 26, 2014
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
This is the twelfth of our series where we here at Notinhalloffame.com, do what else? Debate the merit of twenty-four men on the most loaded Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in our lifetime.
Joining me, the site's Committee Chairman, in this debate are D.K. of the site's Phillies Archivist blog and Darryl Tahirali of the site's DDT's Pop Flies blog. This looks to be a very important part of our site, and we hope you will enjoy reading this as much as we enjoyed writing it.
Chairman: Donnie Baseball. Mattingly is on his 15th year on the ballot, and I didn’t even realize this until I looked it up. Last year, Mattingly had 8.2 percent of the ballot, his lowest total ever. His highest was 28.2 percent, which was on his first year of eligibility. The second year was 20.3. I really like him, but here is a guy who might be this generation’s Steve Garvey; and I don’t mean because he pretended to be a really good guy in public. Basically, I am saying that sabremetrics is not his friend. With this loaded ballot, I could conceivably see him fall under fiver percent. Now I’m too lazy to look up if anybody ever fell below that 5 percent threshold on their final year, but that would have to be a first right?
Darryl: Well, the saber numbers are not his enemy—it's the counting numbers that are hurting him: Don Mattingly simply doesn't have the big career totals. Only six of his 14 seasons saw him play 150 or more games, and that is indicative of the injuries that dogged him. In the only season in which he played every game, 1986 in his age-25 year, Mattingly led the American League in hits, doubles, slugging percentage and total bases. He hit 31 home runs, drove in 113, and posted a .352/.394/.573 slash line. He had a six-year peak between 1984 and 1989, which is just a little short and he was not quite the dominant player during that time. That would compensate for the light counting numbers, but it never happened. Mattingly falls just short in both areas. And if he does fall below five percent this year, I think that would be more of an indicator of an overloaded ballot.
D.K.: This is his last year on the Writers’ Ballot Mattingly will be a Veterans Committee candidate two years from now in December 2016, for the HOF Class of 2017. If he is to reach the Hall Of Fame at all entrance to Cooperstown via the Vets Committee is his proper level of the Hall. Injuries prevented him from sustaining the type of dominant performance that adds up to a Writers Ballot HOFer, but I could see him getting in through the Vets.
Chairman: I think whatever metric you use, it comes down to a peak period that just wasn’t long enough and a period after that doesn’t measure up no matter how you slice it. I wonder though if he was on better Yankees teams, and whether we want to admit or not, Major League Baseball is more interesting when the Bronx Bombers are good, that if he played for a better team, that he would be closer to induction. Mattingly was the star of bad Yankees teams, but Rizzuto was what on great Yankees teams, maybe the fifth best player? Sorry…but I know that Darryl will understand when I say that Phil Rizzuto is my Percy Sledge. Holy Cow!
D.K.: There’s not much I could add to Darryl’s comment. He said it all – or at least most of it. Mattingly's Saber numbers or I guess you could call them his qualitative numbers are Hall Of Fame-like. It’s his quantitative numbers or counting numbers that weaken his case. His four or five year peak was not dominant enough over a long enough period of time to rate Hall of Fame enshrinement in the minds of most voters. He will be eligible for consideration by the Veterans Committee just two years from now in December 2016 on the Expansion Era committee ballot.
Mattingly has become part of a historical footnote. He is one of three players who had been through more than 10 BBWAA elections when they decided to shorten the number of years players can be voted in by the writers. Three players are being grandfathered in and will receive their full run of 15 years on the ballot as per the old rules. This will be Mattingly’s final year on the ballot, next year will be Alan Trammel’s final year on the writer’s ballot and Lee Smith will have his final vote in 2017. After Smith’s shot in 2017, the 15-year ballots rule will pass into history.
Darryl: At least Percy Sledge had an R&B hit called "Out of Left Field," so he's at least in the ballpark. I'm tempted to say that whether Mattingly was on a good or bad team doesn't, or shouldn't matter, but I don't know. Mattingly's record matches pretty closely to Kirby Puckett's in several ways. Both played at the same time, and even though Mattingly logged two more seasons, both played in nearly the same number of games although Puckett had about 100 more plate appearances and collected a season's worth more hits; thus, Puckett hit several points higher, .318 to Mattingly's .307, but otherwise their slash lines are about the same. Mattingly won a MVP award and was runner-up the following year; Puckett was top five three times. Puckett of course had postseasons heroics on his side as his Minnesota Twins won two World Series. Mattingly only ever saw one postseason series, in 1995, the AL Divisional Series against the Seattle Mariners famed for the "Edgar Martinez double" that won the fifth and deciding game. But we all but forget that Mattingly fairly raked in the series, knocking ten hits including four doubles and a home run for a .417 average while driving in six runs, so who knows what Mattingly could have done in more postseasons. Puckett is a marginal Hall of Famer, but he was worth about eight wins more in bWAR than was Mattingly, and that may be the real difference.
Chairman: I always like Mattingly…especially in his Simpsons cameo: “Mattingly, I thought I told you to trim those side sideburns!” Still, an appearance for Mr. Burns’ company softball team doesn’t get him on my ballot. I vote no.
Darryl: No.
D.K.: No.
The Pedro Martinez Debate: 2015
Dec 26, 2014
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
This is the eleventh of our series where we here at Notinhalloffame.com, do what else? Debate the merit of twenty-four men on the most loaded Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in our lifetime.
Joining me, the site's Committee Chairman, in this debate are D.K. of the site's Phillies Archivist blog and Darryl Tahirali of the site's DDT's Pop Flies blog. This looks to be a very important part of our site, and we hope you will enjoy reading this as much as we enjoyed writing it.
Chairman: We have another debut on this year’s ballot, and one that I think has an excellent shot at entering immediately. For the record, I love everything about Pedro Martinez, and for years he was my favorite (non Blue Jay) Pitcher. The only way I see somebody not voting for this guy, is for one of two reasons:
One, he is one of those writers who refuses to put anyone on the ballot because he thinks everyone was on PEDs, or can’t confirm who was and was not. Sadly, we have had some who openly do that.
Two, they are holding on to the archaic view that he only has 219 Wins. Gun to my head, I would build my team around Pedro over Randy Johnson, though I suspect the latter will get a higher percentage of the vote.
Darryl: I would build my team around Randy Johnson—he is more durable. In just under 200 more starts than Pedro Martinez, Johnson had 54 more complete games (he led the league in that category four times; Martinez, once), and pitched 37 shutouts, 20 more than Martinez, and two of Johnson's were no-hitters, one a perfect game. (Martinez once pitched nine hitless innings but gave up a hit in the 10th inning.) I mention this because as a Red Sox fan (they're number two behind the Giants), I still shudder at Pedro's staying in too long in Game Seven of the 2003 American League Championship Series against the Yankees, who tied the game against him and beat the Red Sox in extra innings to go to the World Series. Contrast that with Johnson's pitching heroics for the Arizona Diamondbacks in the 2001 World Series. Simply put, Randy Johnson is one of the most dominant pitchers ever to step on the mound.
Now, that said, Pedro Martinez is not too far behind. Any writer who thinks Pedro was on PEDs deserves to have his ballot privileges revoked permanently: Pedro was a skinny kid from the Dominican—he was a freaking David facing a host of steroids-fueled Goliaths, and like that Biblical stone-slinger Pedro mowed 'em down, one by one. In terms of run prevention, Pedro is better than the Big Unit: Martinez had two seasons with an ERA under 2.00, and Martinez had five seasons with an ERA+ over 200, and this was in the teeth of the Steroids Era; Johnson never matched either one of those accomplishments. In fact, Pedro is the only pitcher on the 2015 ballot, starter or reliever, with a sub-3.00 career ERA; his is 2.93. I've written an extensive article for this site that examines the usefulness—or lack thereof—in determining a pitcher's Hall of Fame worth, so I'll just echo agreement about their being archaic as a primary determinant. Pedro Martinez is one of the elite pitchers in the game's history—he is a first-ballot Hall of Famer without question.
D.K.: I’m still a little miffed that Pedro’s swan song was two World Series losses with the Phillies to the Yanks in 2009. The Yankees won the game by a two game margin and Pedro went 0-2 in the series ...you do the math...and Pedro can still call the Yankees ”his Daddy”.
As a Phillies fan I’ll give him my HOF vote grudgingly because you can’t ignore his stratospheric career winning percentage of .687 - second only to Whitey Ford (and Ford had a Yankees Dynasty backing him).
Chairman: So this looks like a unanimous opinion from us as to whether we think Pedro should be in the Hall. We all think he should, and believe it will be right away. Darryl, no issues from me for you picking Randy over Pedro, they are both giving our fictional teams bona fide aces either way.
Let’s throw this out. Is there any chance that the writer’s give a higher percentage to Martinez than Johnson? I vote no, but there are stranger things that have happened on Hall of Fame voting. Saying that, if he finishes in any other place than second, I would have read four different sources to believe it.
D.K.: Did I mention in round one that in addition to having one of the highest winning percentages of all time at .687 - and to simplify that it means Pedro went 11-5 for every 16 decisions throughout his career, he also is a 3,000 strikeout man. He’s in rarified company among pitchers, but as the luck of the draw has it, he also retired the same year as Randy Johnson and now they each become first-time HOF eligibles as well. Martinez and John Smoltz might suffer by the comparison to Johnson. While they are both in the 220 win range, Johnson won 303 games and while Smoltz and Pedro finished with about 3,100 strikeouts, Johnson dwarfs them again with nearly 4,900 Ks RJ also finished his career with an even 100 Complete Games, and that’s a rare accomplishment in this day and age.
Johnson also gets to be in those cool commercials where hot girls in tight shorts wash his car and mow and water his lawn while he relaxes in a lawn chair. I’ve already forgotten the product name because of those obvious curvy distractions - something to do with removing that grey from your goatee, I think. Well, that’s neither here not there I guess Pedro would be a lock in a normal year, but competing against Johnson, he might lose some votes by comparison, because for all but the last three or four years of his career, RJ was close to being “Superhuman”.
Darryl: Indeed, stranger things have happened on a Hall ballot--Ty Cobb polled more votes than did Babe Ruth on the inaugural 1936 ballot, and not only had Ruth just retired, and thus was fresh in writers' minds, but Ruth revolutionized the game and even then was considered to be the game's greatest superstar; furthermore, Ruth's colorful ways made him an American folk hero while Cobb remains one of the most disliked players of all time.
That said, I'd lay more money on North Korea's getting elected to the United Nations' Security Council than on Pedro Martinez garnering more votes than Randy Johnson this year. But who knows? Maybe that new movie with Seth Rogen and James Franco will help North Korea . . .
Chairman: This is a no-brainer for me. I am all in Pedro and am openly cheering for him to be a first ballot inductee. I vote Yes.
Darryl: Yes.
D.K.: I’m using all my 10 votes. I ranked Pedro 6th. - That means it’s a Yes vote for me.
The Edgar Martinez Debate: 2015
Dec 25, 2014
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
This is the tenth of our series where we here at Notinhalloffame.com, do what else? Debate the merit of twenty-four men on the most loaded Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in our lifetime.
Joining me, the site's Committee Chairman, in this debate are D.K. of the site's Phillies Archivist blog and Darryl Tahirali of the site's DDT's Pop Flies blog. This looks to be a very important part of our site, and we hope you will enjoy reading this as much as we enjoyed writing it.
Chairman: Ahhh…the Designated Hitter. For my entire life, and let’s just state that I am no longer a young man, the DH has been part of baseball fandom and growing up in an American League city (Toronto), I don’t know it any other way. Yet, here we are, with the DH well off the place where he could date a late 20 year old, and he is still judged as too young to be relevant.
Gentlemen, after all of this time do we have a case where the Baseball Writers don’t respect a part of the game that has been a fixture for more than four decades? I have to think that, because if Edgar Martinez, who has to be considered the greatest DH of all time can’t get to 50 percent of the vote, will anyone who forgoes a glove for the bulk of their career ever have a shot?
Darryl: Call me a Polyanna, but I don't think this is a case of outright antipathy toward the DH. Granted, it has taken time to acknowledge the position, and it has been incremental: Paul Molitor was elected, and he played about 44 percent of his games at DH. Frank Thomas went in, and he played about 57 percent at DH. Edgar Martinez played 70 percent at DH, and that is significant: He played about four seasons' worth at third base—and he was a better third baseman than Thomas was a first baseman, and third is a tougher position. But both Molitor and Thomas hit Hall of Fame milestones, the former with 3000 hits, and the latter with 500 home runs. Martinez has terrific qualitative numbers but he doesn't have those counting numbers. By now I think Martinez's bigger problem is the logjam on the ballot, which is affecting almost every candidate—but his time is running out.
D.K.: If I remember correctly Martinez was a decent fielding third baseman before injuries limited him to DH duties. He then set the standards for all DHs with ten .300 seasons, five 100 RBI seasons, over 300 home runs and a .312 career batting average. If elected, Martinez will have played a highest percentage of games at DH than anyone in Hall Of Fame history (almost 70%), surpassing Paul Molitor who DHed in nearly 44% of his career games. Like another of this year’s candidates, Craig Biggio, Martinez was something of a ”Doubles Machine” with 514 doubles lifetime, reaching 50 doubles in a season twice and leading the AL in that category twice also.
I think he’s deserving... it all depends on how open-minded the writers are to having the first real full-time DH in the HOF.
Chairman: Those are great points about Thomas and Molitor, though and based on the percentages you gave about the three (Thomas, Molitor and Martinez), the perception about Edgar as “only” being a DH, isn’t that far off the mark. I do think there is some bias towards the position, though the stiff competition he faces does him no favors.
I think we all agree that Martinez has some serious HOF qualifications, but isn’t a must for any of us. Let me change the question here: With all the great players who were his teammates (A-Rod, Griffey, Randy Johnson) who are all Hall of Fame locks (or would have been had he not been caught lying about PEDs multiple times, and yes A-Rod I’m looking at you) is Edgar Martinez the greatest Seattle Mariner of all time? I’m not saying that he is the best player to ever wear the uniform, but the greatest Mariner, if you catch my meaning.
D.K.: The Hall Of Fame really hasn’t reached the age of the dominant one inning closer. When it does, however, I’d expect Trevor Hoffman to be the first serious contender for the Hall. It’s a reflection of how the game has evolved that the only relievers in the HOF now are those who were expected to go a few innings, if necessary (Wilhelm, Fingers, Gossage, Sutter).
I don’t expect there to be any controversy regarding their possible place in the HOF (once they become eligible) because Billy Wagner, Hoffman and Mariano Rivera were only expected to pitch the ninth inning unlike relievers of previous eras.
However there is quite a fuss over Designated Hitters, players who hit only and don’t field a position, unlike players of previous eras who were both expected to excel at the plate and in the field. - Designated hitters. Edgar Martinez and other DHs didn’t rewrite the rulebook in 1973 that allowed the Designated Hitter in the American League. They merely tried to fulfill that DH role as well as humanly possible and Martinez filled that role better than anyone in the 40 plus years of the DH rule’s existence. I’m leaning strongly towards giving Edgar my vote.
Darryl: Interestingly, the Wikipedia page for Baseball Hall of Fame inductees lists Frank Thomas's primary position as DH (Paul Molitor's is third base). Nothing to take to the bank except that it is being recognized now. And of course the annual award for the best DH has been re-named for Edgar Martinez, who probably best exemplifies the position, but how ironic if he is never elected to the Hall.
However, to your question, Chairman, I'm not sure that Martinez is even the greatest Mariner. Randy Johnson first gained fame in Seattle, but his greatest fame was with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Between the historic contract Alex Rodriguez signed with the Texas Rangers and then his move to the New York Yankees, many people may forget that he started as a Mariner. However, I think that Ken Griffey, Jr., is and will continue to be regarded as the greatest Mariner: The Kid notched his four home run titles and his only MVP award in Seattle. Mariners fans may consider Martinez the hometown favorite because he spent his entire career with Seattle, but I think he will continued to be overshadowed by Griffey, and when Griffey is elected in a couple of years, he will in all likelihood have the Mariners' cap on his plaque--and it is very possible that Martinez will still not have been elected even then.
Chairman: In previous years I would have had him on my ballot, I have to push him off of this one, again due to the logjam. Personally, I think he is a Hall of Famer, but since I can’t vote for twelve, he receives an apologetic no from me.
D.K.: Since the designated hitter has been part of the game in the
American League for over 40 years, I feel that sooner or later they’ll have to start recognizing DHs who really distinguish themselves and separate themselves from the pack. My vote is for Sooner - and thus it’s a YES vote for EDGAR. He made my top 10 at #9 so he gets my vote.
Darryl: No. Not this year.
The Jeff Kent Debate: 2015
Dec 24, 2014
Published in
Hall of Fame Debates
This is the ninth of our series where we here at Notinhalloffame.com, do what else? Debate the merit of twenty-four men on the most loaded Baseball Hall of Fame ballot in our lifetime.
Joining me, the site's Committee Chairman, in this debate are D.K. of the site's Phillies Archivist blog and Darryl Tahirali of the site's DDT's Pop Flies blog. This looks to be a very important part of our site, and we hope you will enjoy reading this as much as we enjoyed writing it.
Chairman: You know guys, even though this is what I do most of my life, I honestly didn’t remember that Jeff Kent made the first year, and especially didn’t remember that he was at slightly over 15 percent last year. Why is that, I wonder? This is a former MVP, a man with healthy numbers, yet here I see a Survivor reject who will put up Don Mattingly voting numbers without the Don Mattingly respect. Do we have someone who was a little overrated to get to this spot, or is the first perception I have accurate?
Darryl: No, I don't think Jeff Kent is overrated, but full disclosure: I'm a lifelong Giants fan, so I have to keep my bias in check. That said, I think Kent is underrated and certainly overshadowed by Barry Bonds, and in that case he probably didn't get a lot of respect—not helped by his own somewhat aloof attitude, but this isn't the Hall of Nice Guys. Besides, we know where they finish. Speaking of finishing, Kent finished 25th in doubles with 560 (tied with Hall of Famer Eddie Murray), 51st in RBI with 1518 (nine more than Mickey Mantle), and even if his 377 home runs are 70th all-time, his 351 hit as a second baseman are the most-ever by anyone at that position. And Kent was at one of the strength positions defensively—2034 games at second base—and even if he wasn't a Gold Glover, he didn't stink: He was about league-average in the field, and it was his bat that mattered. All this said, I think Kent will hang onto the ballot for a few years, but he will be overshadowed and passed over, and a future Expansion Era Committee will have to decide whether he goes in.
D.K.: He has more home runs than any second baseman in MLB history, but what does that really mean? Not known for a winning personality and a player that was known to feud with teammates and writers, I wonder if he is in for a Jim Rice-like candidacy. Which is to say that due to writers who hold grudges against him and refuse to give him their vote for as long as possible - Kent might one day be a Veterans Committee candidate, where a panel of more impartial voters may one day vote him in.
Chairman: So gang, what are we saying here? It seems like we are basically saying we don’t really care if Kent hangs on to the ballot or drops off of it, and if another generation (Veteran’s Committee) wants to look at him, so be it. Maybe that is really what we have here in Kent, is a guy who was damned good, has better stats than you think, but nobody will shed a tear if he doesn’t get in. Hell, I doubt, if Jeff himself gives it any thought! Darryl, as a Giants fan, have you heard an interview where he gives an opinion the subject?
D.K.: Not the most likeable personality, Kent was even an early departure on the TV show “Survivor” - “It’s time to go Jeff - The Tribe has spoken”, but that’s not what we’re really here to judge.
Kent played a yeoman’s 2,034 games at second base and had nearly 2,500 hits.
His 377 home runs is in a class of it’s own for second baseman - and he’s tied on the all-time list in home runs with big bopper, first baseman, Norm Cash. A .290 hitting second baseman with first baseman/outfielder-like power, Kent’s candidacy is starting to grow on me.
I started out in round 1 against his candidacy, but now I can’t help but admit that his numbers are swaying me. It’s going to be an election day decision as to whether he gets my vote - I mean, seriously - It might come down right to the wire!
Darryl: First, I wouldn't say that I don't care whether Kent hangs onto the ballot or falls off, but I do think the latter is more likely in this logjam environment. We will need to see whether his initial 15 percent last year was a first-year spike or is an indication of a groundswell of support, but in either case he will most likely languish in the same range as Fred McGriff or Don Mattingly in this ballot environment. As for knowing his opinion on the Hall, I do not know of any indication Kent has given, but quite honestly I don't follow celebrity personality in any field so I'm the wrong person to ask. As for his Hall of Fame credentials, as a right-handed power-hitting second baseman, Jeff Kent is below Rogers Hornsby--but who isn't?--roughly equal to Ryne Sandberg, and ahead of Joe Gordon, and all three are in the Hall, so I don't think there is any question that he belongs.
Chairman: I will admit that I am not as sold on Jeff Kent as the two of you, I have to say that you have pushed me more on to his cause than I had been previously. Still, I am voting no, but that is far more due to a crowded ballot than anything else. I want to see him stay on so that we can debate this one again.
D.K.: After a slow start Jeff Kent’s candidacy grew on me, particularly since his numbers are great for his position, second baseman. He’s one of my two near misses - the other being Larry Walker. Call him 11A and Walker 11B in my rankings. He’d have gotten my vote if the BBWAA writers had been able to push through their proposal to increase the maximum votes from each writer’s ballot to 12 - A reluctant no for 2015, but I’d vote for him if this logjam of incredible talent ever eases up.
Darryl: No. Not this year.