If I Had a Vote in the 2023 Baseball Hall of Fame Election

 

Here's the problem: While PED is a legitimate concern in evaluating a candidate's worthiness for the Hall because it illustrates behavior done during candidates' playing career that impacts their performance, BBWAA voters are now scrutinizing players' non-baseball behavior after their playing careers have ended. Citing the "integrity," "sportsmanship," and "character" criteria in Rule Five of the BBWAA Rules of Election, they appear to be using that as a justification not to vote for a candidate, even one who by any measure is a genuine Hall of Famer based on his playing career.

One such candidate was Curt Schilling, whose last chance to have BBWAA voters elect him was last year. Schilling seemed destined for Cooperstown glory as recently as 2020, when he received 70.0 percent of the vote. But a negligible gain in 2021, attributed to growing dissatisfaction among voters concerning Schilling's noxious social-media presence over the last several years—long after his playing career had ended—ultimately led to his being denied entry into the Hall.

Granted, Schilling did himself no favors after the 2021 voting results were announced with his churlish demand to be removed from the 2022 ballot (the Hall refused), which all but guaranteed that he would come up empty-handed last year. (My social and political opinions could not be more diametrically opposed to Schilling's—but I have always maintained since 2011 that Schilling is a no-doubt Hall of Fame pitcher.)

Also taking a hit was Omar Vizquel, still on the 2023 ballot but who saw his support plummet by more than half, from 49.1 percent in 2021 to 23.9 percent last year. The reason appears to be allegations that surfaced in August 2021 about Vizquel's sexual harassment of an autistic bat boy; this followed Major League Baseball's then-ongoing investigation into his ex-wife's allegations of domestic abuse—again after his playing career had ended.

One of baseball's greatest defensive shortstops--but will Omar Vizquel's alleged personal misconduct made after his playing days were over keep him out of the Hall of Fame?


The 2022 ballot was also the last chance for PED Penitents Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Sammy Sosa, although their fate, after a decade of contentiousness, was a foregone conclusion. Then, as the Hall rolled out its newly revamped Veterans Committee structure with an emphasis on baseball since 1980, who should appear on the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot of eight candidates but Schilling along with PED Penitents Bonds and Clemens, all fresh from their final appearances on the BBWAA ballot? Joining them was Rafael Palmeiro, another PED Penitent who lasted all but four times on a BBWAA ballot.

The balance of the ballot included Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, and Dale Murphy, and as I pointed out in my assessment of the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, it was hard not to conclude that this ballot was gamed deliberately to make the path to Cooperstown easier for at least Mattingly, McGriff, and Murphy, with McGriff, on his first post-BBWAA ballot, getting the call from the Hall.

This isn't to take anything away from Fred McGriff, practically the definition of the "borderline Hall of Fame candidate," and although I never considered him a Hall of Famer, I noted in my assessment that I had no issue if he was selected by the committee.

However, if you consider Belle, notorious for his attitude and temper, to be another "rotten apple" along with Schilling and the PED Penitents, then the odds looked very good for at least one of the remaining three. Let's face it: The Veterans Committee is an insiders' cabal comprising Hall of Fame players, executives, and media personages and historians who are not going to stick their necks out for any players with even a hint of taint about them (although Schilling did poll a surprising seven votes).

Thus, McGriff's selection provided vindication for the "good character" cheerleaders (such as MLB Network's resident Hall of Fame bulldog Brian Kenny, who extolled "Cooperstown Justice" only for Mattingly, McGriff, and Murphy), reinforcing the perception that the Hall of Fame is becoming the Hall of Saints that fabricates a Disneyfied vision of baseball—an "uplifting, feel-good visit," to borrow Joe Morgan's words—that rewards former players who not only were exemplary performers on the field but were also exemplary human beings on and off the field—even after their playing careers have ended.

Yes, induction into the Hall of Fame is a privilege, not a right. And as a private institution, the Hall can establish the criteria it chooses to within legal limitations (it cannot ban non-white candidates because of anti-discrimination statutes, for example).

But this disturbing trend on the part of voters in both the BBWAA and the Veterans Committee that judges a player on his worthiness for the Hall of Fame not only on his behavior off the field but after his playing career has ended leads to a slippery slope whose ramifications may be unforeseen—and are potentially unsettling.

By no means does this condone or minimize behavior of the kind that Schilling and Vizquel have appeared to have demonstrated. Reprehensible behavior must have its consequences. However, this positions the Baseball Hall of Fame in crosshairs into which it has, wittingly or not, strayed: Is this the Hall of Fame? Or is this the Hall of Saints?

In other words, does entrance into the Hall—which, let's be honest, has always had overtones of sanctity and canonization since we speak of "enshrinement" in the Hall—now require that a player (more so than non-players also "enshrined") not only demonstrate superior baseball prowess during his career but also superior social decency and morality both during and after his career? And while you can use objective metrics to evaluate his prowess, how do you evaluate his social decency and morality? Should you? And who does the evaluation? Right now, it's the voters, both in the BBWAA and on the Veterans Committee.

Moreover, do you then conduct a retroactive evaluation of players already in the Hall? Because you know this reprehensible behavior is not a new phenomenon. It has always been present in human society. What has changed are the social and legal attitudes toward that behavior; no longer is it a matter of minimizing, ignoring, dismissing, or denying it as in the past. Thus, it is all but inevitable that players already "enshrined" have halos that are tarnished; we just haven't outed them yet.

This is not a hypothetical issue, nor even one buried in the distant past. In 2021, Roberto Alomar, inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2011, was banned from baseball because of allegations of sexual harassment in 2014 lodged by a Toronto Blue Jays staffer. The Blue Jays fired him and removed his Hall of Fame banner from the Rogers Centre, their home field, although the Baseball Hall of Fame has not yet taken any action regarding his "enshrinement."

Will the Hall of Fame take any action? Should it? And if it does, how far down that notorious slippery slope does it go?

This question of morality in the "shrine" called the Hall of Fame persists. Not only does the PED issue remain for the 2023 ballot, but making his ballot debut this year is Carlos Beltrán, whom I identified in 2020 as the only no-doubt Hall of Famer debuting this year . . . except for one slight issue: he has a cheating problem. Not strictly by himself, but as the reputed enforcer of the sign-stealing scheme the Houston Astros enacted during their world championship season of 2017, his culpability will undoubtedly arise during discussions about his Hall-worthiness, particularly as the Astros just won the 2022 World Series (although, of course, Beltrán was not involved with that team's victory).

Beltrán's fate is the capper for what has been, again, a lively year in baseball that shapes the environment for Hall of Fame voting.

Hall of Fame Environment 2023

The PED issue never seems to go away: In 2022, one of Major League Baseball's most impressive young stars, Fernando Tatis, Jr., received an 80-game suspension after he failed a test for a banned substance, his first violation.

Tatis's status as an incipient superstar was cemented with the 14-year, $340 million contract extension he signed with the San Diego Padres in 2021, in only his third year in MLB. However, his testing positive for the anabolic steroid Clostebol in the ringworm medicine he stated he had taken puts him in the category of dubious superstars such as Manny Ramirez and Álex Rodriguez; meanwhile, Tatis's budding track record of injuries casts further doubt on the Padres' prudence in awarding him such a lengthy and lucrative contract extension.

Work Stoppage: Would There Be Baseball in 2022?

However, Tatis's plight is but one strand in the robust narrative MLB spun for the 2022 season. First and foremost, there was concern whether there would be a 2022 season as, following an inability to agree on demands as the 2016 collective bargaining agreement (CBA) between MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) was set to expire on December 1, 2021, MLB owners instituted a players' lockout, triggering the first MLB work stoppage since the players' strike in 1994.

Negotiations between MLB and the MLBPA were tense, terse, and contentious, and as 2022 slipped into late February and then early March, when players begin to report for spring training, expectations for a full season of baseball, just one season removed from the 2020 season that was drastically abbreviated because of the COVID-19 pandemic, were dwindling.

But on March 10, 2022, both parties agreed to a new, five-year CBA. With that, Major League Baseball experienced significant changes.

The 2022 season, begun on April 7, was a full, 162-game schedule, and thanks to a revamped postseason structure, it would, for the first time in MLB history, knowingly and deliberately end in November. (The 2001 postseason strayed into November because of the unforeseen hiatus MLB took following the September 11 terror attacks.)

For the first time, MLB used a seeding system for the postseason that saw the addition of another wild-card team, bringing the total to six postseason teams in both the American and National Leagues. The two division winners with the best records (first and second seeds) received a bye into the Divisional Series as the two wild-card teams with the best records (fourth and fifth seeds) played a best-of-three Wild Card Series, as did the third-seed division winner and the sixth-seed wild-card team. From there, the postseason proceeded with the existing structure through the Divisional, League Championship, and World Series.

Before the postseason, though, a number of rule changes affected regular-season play. One that changed National League history was the permanent institution of the designated hitter as pitchers would no longer have to wield a bat against their opposite numbers (except perhaps as a pinch-hitter) as they had done since baseball had begun. Also reinstituted was the automatic runner on second base to start each inning in regular-season games that go into extra innings.

Off the field, baseball minor-league players became members of the MLBPA as, for the first time since the minor leagues were founded in 1901, players became unionized. Minor leaguers have historically played with at best subsistence wages in their quest to make the Show, an economic inequality that had been decried for some time. Thus, the unionization of minor leaguers, albeit at its first step, is another historical milestone for baseball (and, in the larger sense, for labor relations as well).

Finally, as noted above, the Baseball Hall of Fame announced it was revamping, yet again, its Veterans Committee structure to emphasize both players and non-players from 1980 on with a separate Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for each group, with the players' variant meeting in December 2022 to determine whether any of the eight player candidates would be formally inducted into Cooperstown in July 2023; as noted above, the committee selected Fred McGriff for induction. (All other baseball from before 1980 will be handled by the Classic Baseball Era Committee.)

Should this current reconfiguration, the fifth since the start of the century, manage to last more than just a few years—and this latest approach does seem to be the most sensible adjustment yet—it could have ramifications for those players returning to the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, particularly those whose time on the ballot is expiring.

Returning Candidates

Of the 14 candidates returning to the BBWAA ballot, Jeff Kent is in his final year of eligibility while Gary Sheffield faces that challenge next year and five other candidates—Billy Wagner, Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones, Scott Rolen, and Omar Vizquel—are now in the "decline phase" of their ballot eligibility, having passed the five-year mark of their ten-year eligibility, with Todd Helton and Andy Pettitte reaching that halfway point this year. The other five players still in their first half are Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Torii Hunter, Álex Rodriguez, and Jimmy Rollins.

With Carlos Beltrán the only debut candidate with a solid Hall of Fame case, the 2023 ballot could see a number of returnees make significant gains in their vote totals as this ballot could clear away the remaining logjam that plagued BBWAA voting in the 2010s.

Ballot Performance for 2023 Returning Candidates

Of course, "significant gains" become more crucial the longer a candidate remains on the ballot, with corresponding opportunities to be elected dwindling as he approaches his final year of eligibility.

The table below lists the candidates returning to the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by their years on the ballot in descending order; their number of years include this current (2023) ballot. Their last appearance listed indicates the final year they may remain on the ballot, assuming that they garner at least five percent of the vote on all preceding ballots.

2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Returning Candidates Voting Summary, Ranked by Years on Ballot in Descending Order
Player	First Appearance	Last Appearance	Years on Ballot	Debut Pct.	Last Pct.	Highest Pct.
Kent, Jeff	2014	2023	10	15.2	32.7	32.7
Sheffield, Gary	2015	2024	9	11.7	40.6	40.6
Wagner, Billy	2016	2025	8	10.5	51.0	51.0
Ramirez, Manny	2017	2026	7	23.8	28.9	28.9
Jones, Andruw	2018	2027	6	7.3	41.4	41.4
Rolen, Scott	2018	2027	6	10.2	63.2	63.2
Vizquel, Omar	2018	2027	6	37.0	23.9	52.6
Helton, Todd	2019	2028	5	16.5	52.0	52.0
Pettitte, Andy	2019	2028	5	9.9	10.7	13.7
Abreu, Bobby	2020	2029	4	5.5	8.6	8.7
Buehrle, Mark	2021	2030	3	11.0	5.8	11.0
Hunter, Torii	2021	2030	3	9.5	5.3	9.5
Rodriguez, Alex	2022	2031	2	34.3	34.3	34.3
Rollins, Jimmy	2022	2031	2	9.4	9.4	9.4

Returning Candidates Career Summaries

Particularly for those returning candidates in their "decline phase" on the BBWAA ballot, their careers have been well-parsed already, so capsule summaries of their careers should suffice. Comprehensive statistics for all new and returning candidates are available in the Appendix, which also includes definitions for statistics that appear in this section.

Bobby Abreu: Apart from Barry Bonds (for obvious reasons), the only hitter in MLB history with at least 900 career extra-base hits and at least 400 stolen bases who is not in the Hall of Fame is Bobby Abreu. The left-handed slugger is 25th all-time with 574 doubles (tied with Hall of Famer Charlie Gehringer) to go with 288 home runs and 59 triples. His two All-Star appearances, in 2004 and 2005, came during his nine-year sojourn with the Philadelphia Phillies.

With 60.2 career bWAR, he is ranked 21st among right fielders with 50.9 JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score system, a derivative of bWAR), but as a sabermetric darling with not even a top-ten finish in Most Valuable Player voting, Bobby Abreu, who may be the Dwight Evans of his generation, has a tough hill to climb among BBWAA voters.

Mark Buehrle: With 14 consecutive years with at least 200 innings pitched, Mark Buehrle also finds himself in distinguished company as he shares this record with Hall of Famers Greg Maddux, Christy Mathewson, and Phil Niekro. The soft-tossing southpaw who spend 12 of his 16-year career with the Chicago White Sox also tossed two no-hitters during his career, one of them, against the Tampa Bay Rays in 2009, the 18th perfect game in MLB history.

Profiling Buehrle in my 2021 to 2025 ballot forecast, I noted that he was an innings-eater par excellence who succeeded despite not being a strikeout pitcher while pitching to a 3.81 ERA and a 117 ERA+ in a high-offense era, then concluded that he would likely poll enough votes to stay on the ballot. That has held true so far, but Mark Buehrle is not likely to rise significantly in polling—and his initial burst of support could very well evaporate now.

Todd Helton: The face of the Colorado Rockies, for which he played his entire 17-year career, Todd Helton holds most of the franchise's major offensive records. Granted, the left-handed slugger had the Coors Field advantage, becoming one of only six hitters in MLB history to reach 400 total bases in a season twice—and only one of three to do so consecutively (2000 and 2001)—with Sammy Sosa the only one besides Helton yet not in the Hall of Fame, although the bulk of his career occurred after humidors were introduced to neutralize baseballs in 2002.

In 2000, the three-time Gold Glove first baseman led the National League in hits with 216 and in batting with a .372 average (Nomar Garciaparra led the American League with an identical mark) while leading the Majors with 59 doubles and 147 RBI but finished fifth in NL MVP voting, indicating the bias against the inflated numbers up in Denver.

In 2017, as Larry Walker was still laboring to make gains on the Hall of Fame ballot, I went to great lengths to make the Hall of Fame case for Helton as a borderline candidate in the face of the Coors Field bias while concluding that he might not get elected in his first few tries but would be elected before his time on the BBWAA ballot was up. Lo, with Walker getting the call to the Hall in 2020, his final year of eligibility, Todd Helton has indeed made significant strides on the next three ballots, and with 52.0 percent of the vote in 2022, he seems poised for election in the next few years.

Torii Hunter: Profiling Torii Hunter in my 2021 to 2025 ballot forecast, I labeled the perennial Gold Glove center fielder—nine consecutive awards from 2001 to 2009—a one-and-done, but the right-handed slugger with 2452 hits, 498 doubles, and 353 home runs in a 19-year career, 12 of those with the Minnesota Twins, has survived two ballots so far. The five-time All-Star never led the league in any offensive category although he did finish sixth in AL MVP voting in 2002. An excellent two-way player who also stole 195 bases, Torii Hunter, ranked 36th by JAWS among center fielders, could find himself off the ballot, if not this year, then very soon.

Andruw Jones: The 2005 runner-up to Albert Pujols for NL MVP, Andruw Jones led the league that year in RBI with 128 and led the Majors in home runs with 51, but two years later, in his 12th and final season with the Atlanta Braves, the center fielder who was another perennial Gold Glove winner—ten consecutive awards from 1998 to 2007—had fallen off a cliff as he finished the last five years of his 17-year career playing for four teams, appearing in at least 100 games only once as his OPS+ during that span was 95—below league average.

I admit that I dismissed Jones as a Hall of Famer in my 2017 assessment of him as a borderline candidate, but by the 2021 BBWAA election, I was now on the Andruw Jones bandwagon thanks to reconsideration of his tremendous, if not wholly dominant, decade-long peak that saw the right-handed slugger hit 345 home runs, drive in 1034 runs, and steal 115 bases while generating 57.6 bWAR including 24.2 dWAR while is his 54.6 career JAWS is good for 11th all-time among center fielders.

During his peak, the five-time All-Star did indeed have six seasons with a bWAR of 5.6 or greater, which indicates All-Star level. BBWAA voters must have had the same change of heart as they have endorsed him in greater numbers since 2020. Polling 41.4 percent of the vote last year, Jones still has significant ground to cover to get to Cooperstown, but in his prime he showed that could cover a lot of territory.

Jeff Kent: On the other hand, Jeff Kent, finally reaching the 30-percent threshold in 2022, is not likely to cover the distance he needs to get to Cooperstown in his final appearance on a BBWAA ballot. And given his taciturn demeanor, the career leader for home runs among second basemen might not have enough friends already in the Hall should he appear on a future Veterans Committee ballot.

Which is a damned shame because Kent, whom I've been touting for the Hall of Fame since 2011, was one of the best second basemen of his generation. The big knock against him was his defense even as he played 2034 games, 13th all-time, at the keystone sack, one of only thirteen to play at least 2000 games at that strength position. Even in his final, age-40 year in 2008, he logged 116 games at second for the Los Angeles Dodgers. In other words, Kent was never moved to a corner position as he entered his decline phase, nor did he move to the American League to become a designated hitter. He remained a second baseman for his entire career.

And even if his career dWAR (–0.1) and career Total Zone total fielding runs above average (–3) are nothing to brag about, the right-handed slugger is one of the greatest-hitting second basemen of all time, 30th in career doubles (560), 54th in career runs batted in (1518), and 77th in career home runs (377). Among second basemen in the integrated era since 1947, Kent's career RBI total and slugging average (.500) are tops while his OPS (.855) is second and his doubles total is third. With the San Francisco Giants, the five-time All-Star aced out his teammate and perennial Most Valuable Player candidate Barry Bonds for the award in 2000.



One of the best-hitting second basemen of all time, Jeff Kent is facing his last pitch for the Hall of Fame but the odds of connecting to Cooperstown glory are not encouraging.

Ranked 21st among second basemen by JAWS, Jeff Kent is a borderline Hall of Famer, a Larry Lunchpail kind of player who showed up to do his job and to do it well, not flashy nor a fan favorite, but one whose consistency and excellence merits his inclusion in Cooperstown. A contestant in the 2012 edition of the reality series Survivor, Kent came in tenth, and in 2023 he seems destined to be voted off this island too.

Andy Pettitte: If pitcher Andy Pettitte did not own five World Series rings, all won with the New York Yankees, would we even be talking about him for the Hall of Fame? Well, yes, we would because in his 18-year career, the left-hander started 521 games, tied with Hall of Famer Jim Palmer for 40th all-time, while his 3316.0 innings pitched ranks 91st, still significant in an era in which 200 innings pitched in a season is an accomplishment, and Pettitte did that ten times while winning 256 games, 42nd all-time.

But as I noted back in 2013 in an article on pitching wins, Pettitte seemed more like a hothouse flower dependent upon the team, the New York Yankees, for which he played 15 seasons in an 18-year career, for his success more so than they depended upon him for theirs. That may be unfair since Pettitte is considered part of the Yankees' "Core Four" of the late 1990s and early 2000s along with Derek Jeter, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera. But while Jeter and Rivera sailed into the Hall on their first ballot, Posada failed to stay on his first ballot, and Pettitte has been impressing about one in ten voters during the four years he has been on the ballot.

Pettitte's association with both PED Penitent Roger Clemens and with PED himself is also a factor, which I noted in 2017 while also stating that Pettitte was simply not a dominant or staff ace pitcher at any time during his career. With 521 starts and 3316.0 innings pitched, Pettitte amassed an impressive 60.2 bWAR but his S-JAWS of 47.2 places him 81st all-time among starting pitchers, just below Mordecai Brown and Joe McGinnity, whose careers were shorter than Pettitte's, and also below fellow compilers Red Faber and Early Wynn. Indeed, Pettitte, selected to just three All-Star teams, posted a seasonal bWAR total of 4.0 or better just three times as well, reinforcing what voters seem to regard about Andy Pettitte: not a Hall of Famer.

Manny Ramirez: Unlike Pettitte, though, and just on numbers alone, Manny Ramirez is not only a Hall of Famer—he is one of the greatest right-handed hitters of his generation, if not all time, although with a .312/.411/.585/.996 slash line, 555 home runs (15th all-time), and 1831 runs batted in (20th all-time), he certainly brooks comparison with legendary Hall of Fame sluggers from Jimmie Foxx and Hank Greenberg to Hank Aaron and Willie Mays.

Of course, were it not for two failed drug tests in 2009 and 2011—both occurring after MLB's Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program was codified in 2006—with Ramirez abruptly retiring following the second one, the colorful left fielder, ranked 10th all-time by JAWS at that position, would have already been elected. As the first superstar to be snared after the program was instituted, Manny Ramirez is unlikely to rise any higher in Hall of Fame voting from where he is now, and he may taper off to Sammy Sosa levels as his languishing on the ballot comes to a fruitless end.

Álex Rodriguez: But if Ramirez's travails were egregious, where does that leave Álex Rodriguez, who will reign as the poster boy for PED until into the next decade? As I noted about the right-handed slugger in my forecast for BBWAA ballots from 2021 to 2025, A-Rod is ridiculously qualified for the Hall of Fame, but barring a change in attitude among BBWAA voters, the shortstop and third baseman, second only to Honus Wagner when ranked by JAWS for shortstops, will get into Cooperstown only if he buys an admission ticket.

Scott Rolen: However, the one returning candidate with the best chance to be elected to the Hall of Fame this year is Scott Rolen, who finished north of 60 percent in 2022 voting as the only candidate to poll ten percent or more from 2021. The 1997 National League Rookie of the Year, who easily bested fellow 2023 candidate Andruw Jones and Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero in voting that year, ranks 10th all-time among third baseman by JAWS, with the first nine already in the Hall except for Adrian Beltre, who is all but assured of being elected as soon as he becomes eligible in 2024.

Just vote him in already. Scott Rolen, one of the best two-way third basemen in baseball history, stands the best chance of being elected to the Hall of Fame this year.


In his 17-year career, the right-handed slugger collected 517 doubles, 316 home runs, and 1287 RBI on his way to being named to seven All-Star teams while amassing eight Gold Gloves, and with a career dWAR of 21.2, 140 Total Zone total fielding runs above average, and 116 defensive runs saved—all the more impressive since Rolen had already been at the hot corner for nine seasons when DRS was introduced in 2003—Rolen didn't just "hit well enough for a Gold Glove"—he earned it in the field. With only one new candidate, Carlos Beltrán, a serious one for the Hall, Scott Rolen could be delivering his induction speech in Cooperstown next July.

Jimmy Rollins: One of just three candidates who debuted in 2022 to poll at least five percent of the vote, Jimmy Rollins was the sparkplug for the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2000s as the switch-hitting shortstop who excelled in the field, winning four Gold Gloves; at the plate, compiling 2455 hits including 511 doubles (56th all-time) and 231 home runs; and on the base paths, stealing 470 bases (46th all-time). "J-Roll" was the National League's Most Valuable Player in 2007 when he led the NL in runs scored (139) and triples (20); in fact, that season he became the fourth member of the 20-20-20-20 club with at least 20 in these four offensive categories: doubles (38), triples (20), home runs (30), and stolen bases (41), with the latter two also putting him in the 30-30 club.

Rollins cooled off considerably the following season, although his bWAR of 5.5, with his dWAR of 2.5 a career high as he won his second Gold Glove, was not far off his career-high 6.1 from 2007; more importantly, he led the Phillies to a World Series victory in 2008, the second for the venerable franchise. In my ballot forecast for 2021 to 2025, I considered Rollins to be a one-and-done, but his debut echoes that of Torii Hunter's in 2021, although Hunter just managed to stay on the ballot in 2022. Ranked 32nd all-time by JAWS, Jimmy Rollins was an excellent two-way shortstop but not an outstanding one, and although he (like Hunter) may benefit from the thinning ballot, he is not likely to generate too much more support.

Gary Sheffield: One of Gary Sheffield's unsung accomplishments is not just that he ranks 21st in career walks (1475), but that the right-handed slugger with 467 doubles and 509 home runs struck out 304 times fewer than he walked, a remarkable achievement for his era, particularly as his distinctive, aggressive bat-wagging as he waited for the pitch suggested a hitter who was about to come out of his shoes swinging at that pitch. Sheffield won a batting title early in his career with the San Diego Padres in 1992, already the second of eight teams he would play for in his 22-year career, as he finished in the top ten for Most Valuable Player voting six times, missing out to Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero in 2004.

In fact, Sheffield, who played more than half of his 2203 games started in right field, resembles Guerrero in many aspects of his offensive record, with Guerrero ranked 22nd all-time in JAWS (50.3) among right fielders while generating 59.5 career bWAR and Sheffield ranked by JAWS 24th all-time (49.3) while generating 60.5 career bWAR. But whereas Guerrero was elected to the Hall on his second ballot, Sheffield faces his final ballot next year. He was linked to Barry Bonds and the BALCO scandal in the 2007 Mitchell Report, so PED appears to be the culprit, at least initially—"Sheff" languished in the low teens in voting percentage his first five years on the ballot—but he jumped to 30.5 percent in 2020 and then to 40.6 percent the next year before replicating that in 2022.

Thus, this ballot is crucial for his Hall of Fame chances: If he cannot entice more than a sizeable minority of voters into his camp, his odds of getting to the 75-percent threshold next year are slim—and should he make it onto the next available Contemporary Baseball Era ballot, he probably shouldn't expect the same kind of love that that committee showed Fred McGriff this year. I admit that I didn't show Sheffield much love when he first hit the ballot, but by 2021 I was endorsing him for the Hall of Fame, and I'm still doing so.

Omar Vizquel: In 2017, I made a lengthy Hall of Fame case for Omar Vizquel that ultimately compared the switch-hitting shortstop to Rabbit Maranville, whom BBWAA voters did elect to the 1954 Cooperstown class on Maranville's 14th ballot. (Sadly, Maranville died in January 1954, just months before the induction ceremony.)

After Vizquel's vote total plummeted from 49.1 percent in 2021 to 23.9 percent in 2022, the appropriate comparison now might be to Fatty Arbuckle, a silent-movie superstar of Maranville's era who was accused of the 1921 rape and manslaughter of an aspiring actress and was tried three times before he was ultimately acquitted; although vindicated (the jury that acquitted him issued a formal written apology to Arbuckle for even having to deliberate his case), the scandal effectively destroyed his career.

Vizquel has faced accusations of domestic abuse against his second wife and of sexual harassment against an autistic batboy, and although Vizquel has not been tried in either case, he does seem to have been convicted in the court of BBWAA voter opinion in the current session of purity for the Hall of Saints. As a defensive ace at arguably the toughest position on the diamond, albeit one whose offensive capabilities were never more than adequate at best, Vizquel was never a lock for the Hall, particularly as he played in an era of premier two-way shortstops that continues today, with 2022 seeing a bumper crop of free-agent shortstops that included Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner.

Given BBWAA voters' propensity toward a Hall of Saints, expect Vizquel to make at best a marginal recovery in his vote total. Current JAWS rankings have him listed 43rd among all shortstops; leaving aside his personal troubles that have occurred after his playing days were over, it's very likely that the BBWAA train to Cooperstown has left Omar Vizquel on the platform for good, with even the Veterans Committee unlikely to pick him up either.

Billy Wagner: Along with Todd Helton, Andruw Jones, and Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner has also seen his support trend significantly upward in the last three years, and with just over 50 percent of the vote going into his eighth year on the ballot, the fireballing southpaw stands a very good chance of closing his appearance on the BBWAA ballot with a ticket to Cooperstown.

That is only fitting for the greatest left-handed relief pitcher in MLB history who certainly numbers among the all-time elites. Ranked by R-JAWS, or reliever JAWS, which factors in leverage and win probability added along with bWAR components, "Billy the Kid" is sixth all-time, with the five relievers ahead of him already in the Hall of Fame. Sixth in all-time saves (422), Wagner also generated a 187 ERA+, second only to Mariano Rivera, and, with 1196 strikeouts in 903.0 total innings, an unreal 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

In 2014, my assessment of Wagner concluded that he was definitely a Hall of Famer but that Hall voters wouldn't see it that way, more specifically, "until the Hall develops an approach to recognize role players—if it ever does—Billy Wagner will be lucky to stay on the ballot past his first year." That pessimism was based upon Wagner's relative lack of visibility, including on the leaderboards (although he did finish in the top ten for Cy Young voting twice), and a dismal postseason record that saw him surrender 21 hits, including three home runs, in just 11.2 innings pitched, yielding a 10.03 ERA in 14 appearances.

Happily, in recent years, BBWAA voters, who made Rivera the only unanimous Hall of Fame pick in MLB history, also voted in Trevor Hoffman, who debuted on the same ballot as Wagner (albeit on his second try), while the Veterans Committee voted in Lee Smith on his first post-BBWAA ballot, thus nearly doubling the number of relief pitchers in the Hall. Billy Wagner seems to be poised to join them in Cooperstown before his ballot tenure expires.

 

New Candidates on the 2023 Ballot

Nearly 23,000 men have played Major League Baseball since the 19th century, but only about six percent had playing careers that lasted at least ten years, the minimum number of years a player needs to be eligible for a Hall of Fame ballot. But appearing on a BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot is not a given—the player must have had a significant enough career to be selected for a BBWAA ballot. Thus, just to be named to a ballot is an honor accorded to only a distinguished stratum of Major League Baseball players.

Apart from being a reminder of the Hall of Fame experience, the foregoing is—let's be honest—sugar coating for the reality of the crop of the fourteen new candidates on the 2023 BBWAA ballot: This is the weakest debut class of the last decade, with only Carlos Beltrán possessing a solid Hall of Fame case—but as we've noted previously, the center fielder is sure to be reminded of his role in the sign-stealing scandal that tainted the Houston Astros' 2017 season capped by the team's first-ever World Series championship.

With the best case for the Hall of Fame among the new candidates, Carlos Beltran's involvement in the Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal is sure to delay his induction.


After Beltrán, Francisco Rodriguez is the next likely Hall of Fame possibility, but the relief pitcher who is fourth in career saves and who holds the record for most saves in a single season faces the same challenges that other relievers have faced. Starting pitcher R.A. Dickey and center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury had at least one banner season, while starting pitcher John Lackey was part of three different championship teams. Starting pitcher Jered Weaver had a brief but solid peak as the ace of the Los Angeles Angels in the early 2010s, while reliever Huston Street, the American League Rookie of the Year in 2005, remained an elite closer for most of his career—although the caveat regarding Rodriguez applies here too.

But the remaining seven new candidates, starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo and Matt Cain, catcher Mike Napoli, shortstops J.J. Hardy and Jhonny Peralta, and right fielders Andre Ethier and Jayson Werth, were solid lineup fixtures in an era of high talent compression, meaning that they could find work fairly easily in a field filled with qualified candidates. However, apart from isolated highlights—Matt Cain pitched a perfect game during the 2012 season, for instance—none of these seven candidates will get more than a hometown vote on this ballot while all others save Beltrán and probably Francisco Rodriguez will receive little more.

New Candidates Career Summaries

I detailed the careers of Beltrán, Lackey, and Francisco Rodriguez in my ballot forecast for 2021 through 2025 and will encapsulate those three along with the other eleven new candidates below. Comprehensive statistics for all new and returning candidates are available in the Appendix, which also includes definitions for statistics that appear in this section.

Bronson Arroyo: A reliable rotation fixture primarily for the Cincinnati Reds, Bronson Arroyo had nine consecutive years with 30 or more starts, leading the league twice, and eight years with 200 or more innings pitched including a Major League-leading career high of 240.2 innings pitched in 2006, in which the right-hander with the distinctive leg kick made his only All-Star appearance. Arroyo mixed in a changeup and slider with his best pitch, his curve ball, as in 2435.2 career innings pitched he struck out 1571 batters against only 661 walks allowed for a respectable 2.38 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

As a member of the historic 2004 Boston Red Sox squad, Arroyo, pitching in relief of Curt Schilling in the eighth inning of Game Six of the American League Championship Series, had the ball swatted out of his glove by the New York Yankees' Álex Rodriguez while trying to apply the tag in a memorable and controversial moment. Breaking their 86-year "Curse of the Bambino," the Red Sox ultimately went on to sweep the St. Louis Cardinals in the World Series, handing Arroyo his only championship ring.

Arroyo's 2006 campaign, in which he also led the Majors in games started (35), netted him 6.8 bWAR that season as he established career bests in ERA (3.29) and ERA+ (142) in his banner season; otherwise, he generated as much as 3.3 bWAR only one other time (his 2007 season) as his 23.1 S-JAWS ranks 403rd among all starting pitchers. At best a back-of-the-rotation arm, Bronson Arroyo may get a hometown vote on the Hall of Fame ballot as he makes his only appearance.

Carlos Beltrán: Speaking of controversy, Carlos Beltrán will face plenty of that for his role in the Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal that has tainted their 2017 season, Beltrán's final year, which saw the team win its first World Series. The American League Rookie of the Year with the Kansas City Royals in 1999, the switch-hitting center fielder combined power, speed, and defensive prowess for a total of seven teams although in his 20-year career he spent seven years each with the Royals and with the New York Mets, where he hit a career-high 41 home runs in 2006, tying Todd Hundley's then-franchise record for single-season homers.

Traded from the Royals mid-season in 2004 to the Houston Astros (then in the National League) for his first sojourn with the team, Beltrán was respectable in Houston as a rental player for that one season (he signed as a free agent with the Mets in 2005), but he exploded during the postseason, hitting four homers each in the five-game NL Divisional Series against the Atlanta Braves and in the seven-game NL Championship Series against the St. Louis Cardinals, tying Barry Bonds for the most long balls in a single postseason, as he fired off a blistering twelve-game slash line of .435/.535/1.022/1.547 while scoring 21 runs and driving in 14, adding, for good measure, six stolen bases without being caught.

The nine-time All-Star stole 312 bases in his career while only being caught 49 times for a sterling 86.4 percent success rate. Ranked ninth all-time among center fielders by JAWS, Carlos Beltrán is a no-doubt Hall of Famer whose only knock is his association with the Astros in 2017, and given the censorial attitude of BBWAA voters, he is likely not to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he will be elected on a subsequent ballot sooner rather than later.

Matt Cain: A rarity in that he spent his entire 13-year career with one team, the San Francisco Giants, Matt Cain won two World Series with the team in 2010 and 2012, and for a four-year stretch from 2009 to 2012, the right-handed starting pitcher posted a 55–35 win-loss record, good for a .611 winning percentage, with a 2.93 ERA, a 129 ERA+, and a 3.46 FIP with 720 strikeouts in 882.0 innings pitched. Cain also made his only three All-Star teams during this period. For eight consecutive years, from 2006 to 2013, he started at least 30 games a season, leading the National League with 34 in 2008, and for six consecutive years, from 2007 to 2012, he pitched at least 200 innings a season while leading the NL in complete games (4) in 2009.

In 2012, pitching against the Houston Astros at the Giants' AT&T Park, Cain hurled a perfect game, the 22nd in Major League history, as he struck out 14 Astros to tie Sandy Koufax for the most punch-outs in a perfect game. It was the first perfect no-no in the Giants' long, storied history, and Cain, who collected a base hit offensively, also became the only pitcher to score a run during his perfect game.

Hit by a line drive on his pitching arm in 2013, Cain went on the 15-day disabled list for the first time in his career, but bone chips in his right elbow sidelined him for the second half of the 2014 season as he underwent surgery to his elbow to remove them. Then surgery to his right ankle to remove a bone spur caused him to miss the Giants' 2014 postseason, which was capped by their third World Series victory in five years. Cain returned in 2015 but injuries continued to plague him, and his pitching effectiveness plummeted as in his final five years, from 2013 to 2017, he won less than a third of his decisions (19–40 for a .322 win-loss percentage) while posting a 4.82 ERA, a 78 ERA+, and a 4.67 FIP. Matt Cain will likely get a hometown vote or two but no more.

R.A. Dickey: As one of the relative handful of Major League pitchers to have made his living from the knuckleball, Robert Allen Dickey did indeed have a career trajectory that fluttered and darted and hung up to be crushed like his signature pitch. The right-hander didn't reach the Majors until 2001, his age-26 year, and even then, the first seven seasons in which he actually pitched in the Majors were a disaster as he posted a 5.43 ERA, an 87 ERA+, and a 5.19 FIP. Not the start to the resumé of an MLB pitcher who would land on a Hall of Fame ballot.

Signing with the Mets in 2010 gave Dickey a new lease on baseball. His first two years in New York saw him post seasonal ERAs of 2.84 in 2010, seventh-best in the National League, in 174.1 innings pitched, and 3.28 in 2011, twelfth-best in the NL, as he surpassed the 200-innings pitch threshold for the first time (208.2 IP). The knuckleballer, already in his mid-thirties, seemed to have found his groove, but even these two quality seasons could hardly have predicted what he would produce next season.

As if someone had scripted it while watching The Natural and The Rookie, R.A. Dickey, in his age-37 season, pitched like a Hall of Famer in 2012. Winning 20 games while losing only six, he struck out 230 batters in 233.2 innings pitched, just a shade under one strikeout per inning (8.9), as he posted further career-bests in ERA (2.73), ERA+ (139), and FIP (3.27). Walking just 54 batters, he also notched a Curt Schilling-like 4.26 strikeouts-to-walks ratio as he led the NL in complete games (5) and shutouts (3) while making his only All-Star appearance and beating out Clayton Kershaw for the 2012 NL Cy Young Award, even edging out Kershaw by one strikeout to top the NL in that category; Dickey is also the first knuckleballer ever to win a Cy Young.

A 2013 trade to the Toronto Blue Jays brought Dickey back down to Earth as he proved to be an innings eater, starting at least 30 games and pitching at least 200 innings in the first three of four seasons in the Great White North, but he was a league-average one at best. After a so-so stint with the Atlanta Braves in 2017, his age-42 season, Dickey hung it up.

R.A. Dickey's narrative is certainly worthy of, if not the Hall of Fame, then a sentiment-laden Hollywood baseball epic worthy of Kevin Costner. But that narrative and Dickey's wonderful, outlier 2012 Cy Young season at least got him onto the only Hall of Fame ballot he'll be on.

Jacoby Ellsbury: In theory and in practice, Jacoby Ellsbury was the next Johnny Damon for the Boston Red Sox, a speedy center fielder who would defect to Boston's hated rivals the New York Yankees in search of greener—as in filthy lucre—pastures, but while Damon at least performed satisfactorily for the Bronx Bombers, Ellsbury's seven-year, $153 million deal with them became one of the biggest free-agent albatrosses ever around the Yankees' neck as Ellsbury, dogged by injuries, managed to play for just four seasons—with only one of those seasons better than league-average.

The first Major League player of Navajo descent, Ellsbury made a strong first impression as a September call-up for the Red Sox in his 2007 debut season before starting in center field during Boston's four-game sweep of the Colorado Rockies in the World Series. Ellsbury then became the Red Sox' starting center field from 2008 to 2013, leading the American League in triples (10) once and in stolen bases three times including a career-high 70 in 2009. Making his only All-Star team in 2011, Ellsbury joined the 30-30 club with 39 steals and a career-best 32 home runs as he finished second in AL Most Valuable Player voting, but considering that winner Justin Verlander had captured the pitching Triple Crown, he shouldn't feel too bad being the runner-up.

But two seasons, 2010 and 2012, marred by injuries didn't deter the Yankees from luring Ellsbury, who had won his second World Series ring in 2013, away from Boston for the 2014 season. Ellsbury delivered a satisfactory initial season with 16 home runs, 39 stolen bases, and a 111 OPS+, the last time he would be above league-average, but he never lived up to the Yankees' expectations, and abortive seasons in 2018 and 2019 underscored a short career (11 years) already over by 2017, his age-33 year. With one excellent season to his credit, Jacoby Ellsbury may get a hometown nod on the 2023 ballot before disappearing.

Andre Ethier: A lineup fixture with the Los Angeles Dodgers, with whom he spent his entire 12-year career, Andre Ethier, despite two All-Star appearances in 2010 and 2011 and a top-ten finish in NL MVP voting in 2009, has never stood out as an elite player. Indeed, with no black ink (leading the league in a significant offensive category) and just a 12 rating for gray ink (top-ten finishes in a significant offensive category), the right fielder barely stands out.

Granted, Ethier was solid enough with seven consecutive seasons with 30 or more doubles, four seasons with 20 or more home runs, four seasons with 150 or more hits, and seven seasons with an OPS+ of 120 or better. As a 24-year-old rookie in 2006, he slashed .308/.365/.477/.842 in 441 plate appearances as he placed fifth (tied with Matt Cain) in Rookie of the Year voting. But Ethier's best season by bWAR was 2012, with 3.5 bWAR, only one of two seasons in which he managed at least 3.0 bWAR.

Limited by injuries to 16 and 22 games in 2016 and 2017, respectively, Andre Ethier was out of baseball after 2017, with his legacy being his consistent play for his first ten years in the Majors and the honor of appearing on a Hall of Fame ballot; however, he might not even get a hometown vote even though he spent his entire career in Los Angeles.

J.J. Hardy: A throwback to earlier baseball eras, or at least back to Omar Vizquel, James Jerry Hardy was truly a defensive shortstop, winning three Gold Gloves as he played 1544 games at the position, 59th best all-time—ahead of Hall of Famers Lou Boudreau and Arky Vaughan—while compiling 87 Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average and 85 defensive runs saved over his career along with 17.5 dWAR, 44th best all-time among all shortstops.

But in an era of super shortstops who pack an offensive wallop along with average to superior fielding skills, Hardy pales in comparison. Debuting in 2005 with the Milwaukee Brewers, who traded him in late 2009 to the Minnesota Twins, who, after the 2010 season, dealt him to the Baltimore Orioles, where he finished his 13-year career in 2017, Hardy did have some pop in his bat, hitting 25 or more doubles in seven seasons and 20 or more home runs in five seasons as he collected 291 doubles and 188 home runs in 6309 career plate appearances.

However, the two-time All-Star, who did win a Silver Slugger Award in 2013 when he hit 27 doubles and 25 home runs with 66 runs scored and 76 runs batted in, broke the 100 mark in OPS+, meaning that he was at least a league-average hitter, just three times and finished with a career 91 OPS+. J.J. Hardy made it onto the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot but won't return on next year's ballot.

John Lackey: Having won World Series rings with three separate teams, John Lackey would seem to have had the magic touch, particularly as he so far remains the only starting pitcher to have won the clinching World Series game with two different teams, first for the Los Angeles Angels in 2002, his rookie year, and then for the Boston Red Sox eleven years later. But as I noted in my 2020 evaluation of the right-hander, Lackey "may be the Forrest Gump of early-21st-century starting pitchers, doing the right thing in the right place at the right time but more a beneficiary of fortune than a maker of fortune as he was a reliable innings-eater but was considered the staff ace only when the staff ace was not available."

Lackey did place third in voting for the American League Cy Young Award in 2007, when he led the AL with a 3.01 earned run average, in what was a virtual toss-up for the honors between future Red Sox teammate Josh Beckett and winner C.C. Sabathia in a season that saw Lackey post a 19–9 win-loss record along with career highs in innings pitched (224.0), ERA+ (150), and bWAR (6.3) as he made his only All-Star team.

In his age-36 season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2015, Lackey, belying an unexceptional 13–10 win-loss record, posted a career-best 2.77 ERA along with a 142 ERA+ and a 5.8 bWAR in 218.0 innings pitched before getting the win the Game One of the Cardinals' Division Series against the Chicago Cubs, pitching 7.1 scoreless innings in what would be the team's only victory in the series. But after signing with the Cubs for 2016, Lackey helped propel Chicago to its first World Series championship in 108 years although his pitching was undistinguished all through that postseason.

With a career S-JAWS of 33.3, John Lackey ranks 206th all-time among starting pitchers, and his postseason acclaim does little to mitigate what will be his only appearance on a BBWAA ballot.

Mike Napoli: Eight seasons of both hitting 20 or more home runs and striking out 100 or more times epitomizes Mike Napoli's 12-year career, all spent in the American League and split among four teams including three separate stints with the Texas Rangers. Coming up with the Los Angeles Angels as a catcher, the right-handed slugger with 267 home runs and 1480 strikeouts (80th all-time) in 5330 career plate appearances transitioned to first base fairly quickly as he found himself in three World Series, first with the Rangers in 2011; then with the Boston Red Sox in 2013; where he garnered a championship ring, ironically by defeating the St. Louis Cardinals, who had bested the Rangers in 2011 in a dramatic contest that went to all seven games; and finally with the Cleveland Indians in 2016 in another historic World Series against the Chicago Cubs.

Napoli had certainly done his part to help Texas into the postseason in 2011. Playing primarily behind the plate, he posted a sterling .320/.414/.631/.1.046 slash line, good for a career-high 173 OPS+, in 113 games and 432 plate appearances with 25 doubles, 30 home runs, and 75 runs knocked in and kept his bat hot throughout the postseason, particularly in the World Series as he hit two homers and drove in 10 runs. With Cleveland in 2016, Napoli established career highs in home runs (34), RBI (101), walks (78; also reached with Boston in 2014), and strikeouts (194) although his hitting wasn't a significant factor during the postseason.

Despite his playing more than half of his 1135 career games started at first base (639), Mike Napoli is ranked as a catcher (485 starts) by JAWS and places 53rd all-time, but with an overall bWAR of 26.3, he may not even get a hometown nod on the ballot.

Jhonny Peralta: With five seasons each with 20 or more home runs and 75 or more runs driven in and six seasons with 30 or more doubles, Jhonny Peralta was a good-hitting shortstop who made 1425 starts at the position, but his 50-game suspension in 2013 for his involvement in the Biogenesis PED scandal is likely to loom in the minds of BBWAA voters as they evaluate his career highlights.

Beginning his career with the Cleveland Indians in 2003, the right-handed hitter largely rode the bench with Omar Vizquel ensconced at short, but when Vizquel left after the 2004 season, Peralta made his mark in 2005 with a .292/.366/.520/.885 slash line, good for a career-high 137 OPS+ as he hit 35 doubles and 24 home runs, another career high, while driving in 78 runs. However, his 5.1 bWAR that season would be his best showing until his first season with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014, his first season back in the Majors following his PED suspension, which had occurred while he was playing for the Tigers.

Traded to Detroit during the 2010 season, Peralta had been named to two All-Star teams during his three-plus seasons with the Tigers (his first, in 2011, had been to replace an injured Derek Jeter) and in 2013 had been batting .303 in 107 games and 448 plate appearances when he accepted the PED suspension; when he returned for the postseason, he promptly hit .417 with one home run and five RBI in four Divisional Series games against the Oakland Athletics. Ranked 74th by JAWS among shortstops, Jhonny Peralta won't be on the next BBWAA ballot.

Francisco Rodriguez: Bursting onto the Major League Baseball stage as a 20-year-old during the 2002 postseason, Francisco Rodriguez, who had pitched just 5.2 innings in relief as a September call-up for the Los Angeles Angels, won five games in 11 appearances out of the bullpen as the Angels blew through the New York Yankees and the Minnesota Twins en route to defeating the San Francisco Giants in a memorable seven-game World Series that saw "K-Rod," an unknown quantity among Major League hitters, use his lively fastball and devastating curveball to strike out 13 Giants in 8.2 innings pitched.

As the setup man for Troy Percival, Rodriguez won eight games in relief in 2003 and pitched to a 1.82 ERA in 2004 as he struck out 123 batters in 84.0 innings pitched. The right-hander assumed the Angels' closer role when Percival left before the 2005 season and promptly led the American League in saves with 45, the first of four consecutive seasons with 40 or more saves that culminated with a record-setting 62 saves in 2008, breaking Bobby Thigpen's single-season mark of 57 set in 1990. "Frankie" placed third in American League Cy Young Award voting that year, behind Hall of Famer Roy Halladay and winner Cliff Lee; it was his third top-five finish in Cy Young voting since 2004, and he even placed sixth in Most Valuable Player Award voting.

Rodriguez then signed a three-year, $37 million contract with the New York Mets starting in 2009, but entering his eighth season in his age-27 year, Rodriguez was beginning to lose his effectiveness as, despite saving 35 games in 2009, he posted a bloated 3.71 ERA while losing six of nine decisions in relief. More problematically, Rodriguez, never afraid to show his emotions, was also losing his temper, assaulting his girlfriend's father in 2010. Rodriguez had a late-career surge with the Milwaukee Brewers, his second sojourn with the club, with back-to-back All-Star appearances starting in 2014 and bringing his total to six, before finishing his career with the Detroit Tigers.

Sabermetric refinements to relief-pitcher evaluations strengthen Francisco Rodriguez's case for the Hall of Fame, but will voters be swayed into electing him?


Fourth all-time in saves with 437, Rodriguez still holds the single-season mark with 62, as he ranks 12th all-time among relief pitchers by R-JAWS, just a tick higher than Hall of Famer Lee Smith. In 2020, I concluded that Francisco Rodriguez was a borderline Hall of Famer and deserves to garner at least five percent of the vote to keep him on the ballot for further consideration. With the introduction of R-JAWS, a refinement of bWAR derivation that focuses more squarely on the relief pitcher's function, Francisco Rodriguez is looking better than he did in 2020. (By that same token, though, Joe Nathan, who fell short of five percent on last year's ballot, is also looking better.)

Huston Street: Like Francisco Rodriguez, Huston Street also made an auspicious Major League entrance when he debuted for the Oakland Athletics in 2005, his age-21 season, as in 67 relief appearances the right-hander posted a 5–1 win-loss record with 23 saves while generating a 1.72 ERA in 78.1 innings pitched. That performance was impressive enough to garner him American League Rookie of the Year honors, easily besting Robinson Canó, among others, for the award.

The right-handed closer went on to have five seasons with 30 or more saves on his way to 324 career saves, 20th on the all-time list, while posting a career 2.95 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 141 ERA+ in 668 appearances—all in relief—and 680.0 innings pitched. But missing nearly half the 2010 season due to shoulder soreness portended injuries that would hamper the last two seasons of the two-time All-Star who also played for the Colorado Rockies, the San Diego Padres, and the Los Angeles Angels; Street called it quits before the 2018 season, which would have been his age-34 year in the Majors. Ranked 40th by R-JAWS among relievers, Huston Street might not get a vote from even one of the four towns he called home during his 13-year career.

Jered Weaver: For a three-year stretch from 2010 to 2012, Jered Weaver looked to be among the elite starting pitchers in baseball, winning 51 games, including an American League-leading 20 in 2012, against 25 losses for a sterling .671 win-loss percentage in 97 starts and 648.2 innings pitched while posting a 2.73 ERA, a 3.31 FIP, and a 141 ERA+ and striking out 573 hitters against 155 walks for an outstanding 3.70 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

More significantly, the three-time All-Star, all chosen during this span, also finished in the top five for AL Cy Young Award honors during this time: The right-hander finished fifth to the Seattle Mariners' "King Felix" Hernández in 2010—although Weaver aced him out for the strikeout title by one whiff—and second to the Detroit Tigers' Justin Verlander the following year, no disgrace as that future Hall of Famer was also named the AL's Most Valuable Player by capturing the pitching Triple Crown, leading the league in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

Weaver, who pitched for the Los Angeles Angels for all but the final of his twelve years in the Major Leagues, led the AL in wins again in 2014 (18), the same year he led the Majors in games started with 34, matching his AL-topping career high in 2010. Yet the lanky Weaver, whose older brother Jeff also pitched in the big leagues, got no Cy Young consideration in 2014. With his ERA+ of 100—exactly league-average—Weaver, despite his wins total, looked to be a workhorse but not an exceptional one. Ranked 211th by S-JAWS, Jered Weaver, among the franchise leaders in several categories for Angels pitchers, should get a hometown vote on his only BBWAA ballot appearance.

Jayson Werth: With a grandfather (John "Ducky" Schofield) and an uncle (Dick Schofield) who played in the Major Leagues, Jayson Werth seemed destined to carry on the family business—and, as the right fielder for the 2008 Philadelphia Phillies, to win a World Series as both Schofields had done. The right-handed hitter was adept at getting on base (a career .360 on-base percentage), hitting for power (300 doubles and 229 home runs in 6366 plate appearances), and running the bases (132 swipes with only 23 times caught stealing), but a history of injuries from the start of his career onward—he missed all of 2006 because of a wrist injury—resulted in his playing in at least 140 games only five times during his 15-year career.

The Phillies took a flier on Werth for the 2007 season, following disappointing years with the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers, and although injuries still dogged him in Philadelphia, he became their starting right fielder, helping to bring a second World Series victory to the city in 2008. He made his only All-Star appearance in 2009, when he hit 36 home runs and drove in 99 runs, both career highs, while setting a franchise record with seven home runs in the ultimately unsuccessful postseason defense of the Phillies world-champion title; then he led the National League in doubles (a career-best 46) in 2010, which yielded his only top ten finish for NL Most Valuable Player voting.

Signing as a free agent with the Nationals, Werth spent the remainder of his career, seven years, in Washington, where his playing time was again hindered by injuries although he had an excellent season in 2013, posting career highs in batting average (.318), on-base plus slugging percentage (.931), and OPS+ (153). With a JAWS ranking of 82nd, Jayson Werth will bow out of Hall of Fame contention this year, but had he been healthy for all of his career, his ballot tenure might have been longer.

My Hypothetical Ballot

When it comes to my hypothetical 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, my only burning question is: Who gets the short straw? For me, the ballot logjam is not quite over—voters can choose no more than ten candidates; however, I have eleven candidates I would vote for.

To build the hypothetical suspense, I will withhold revealing until the end of my list who in my slate of candidates drew that short straw and wouldn't get my vote even though he deserves it. Although ballot selections do not have to be ranked, I've done so in ascending order.

10. Omar Vizquel: What is it they say about a fool persisting in his folly? Even though Omar Vizquel is the Rabbit Maranville of our day, and even though the Morality Police—also known as BBWAA voters—have appeared to condemn him for his alleged off-the-field behavior committed after his playing career was over, I still think that as one of the best defensive shortstops of his era, Vizquel is qualified for the Hall of Fame.

9. Manny Ramirez: One of the best hitters of his generation, Manny Ramirez put up numbers that put him among the greatest of all time, but that doesn't mean anything to the majority of the Morality Police who won't vote for him because of his PED taint. I would vote for Ramirez precisely because of that taint. Why? For that, we turn to . . .

8. Álex Rodriguez: . . . For at least a decade now, I've hammered incessantly and at excruciating length on the PED issue as being not just an individual failing but an institutional failing. While it is individual players who are inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame, they would not even be considered for the Hall were it not for the arena of competition afforded by the institution of Major League Baseball, a for-profit concern that for the last few decades has faced intense competition in the entertainment field. Baseball ceased being the "national pastime" ages ago.

Thus we have had an atmosphere of relative wrist-slapping for PED offenders even if the length of suspensions has increased; as long as it's not a third suspension, which incurs a non-permanent ban from baseball, players returning from paying this penance still find work among the thirty teams needing to fill roster spots. Why? Because teams need to put the best possible product on the field, and despite a high talent compression due in part to limited roster spots, the talent pool remains relatively small. Put simply, excellent players are hard to come by and they remain employable despite their PED taint.

It's the proverbial deal with the devil because they continue to reap rewards while helping teams win division titles, league pennants, and even World Series championships, but eternal damnation, at least for those players considered to be elite, comes after their careers are over and they are considered for "enshrinement" in the Hall of Saints, determined more than ever to deliver that "uplifting, feel-good" experience Joe Morgan extolled in his letter to BBWAA voters urging them not to let PED Penitents into the Hall.

Álex Rodriguez is both ridiculously qualified for the Hall of Fame and the most egregious PED offender baseball has yet to see. I would vote for Rodriguez precisely because of that. His cheating, at least indirectly, helped the New York Yankees win their last World Series in 2009. But what of the cheater who collaborated with his cheating team win a world championship? For that, we turn to . . .

7. Carlos Beltrán: . . . Carlos Beltrán was well on his way to Cooperstown when, for the second time, he joined the Astros for what would be his final season in 2017. With Houston, he won his only World Series ring, the gaudy garnish atop his Hall of Fame resumé. Then it transpired in 2020 that Beltrán was the enforcer on a sign-stealing scheme instituted in 2017 during both the regular season and the postseason that was truly bang-on.

After the outpouring of outrage, Astros manager A.J. Hinch and general manager Jeff Luhnow were suspended from Major League Baseball, then fired from the team. Once Hinch had served his suspension, he was quickly snapped up to manage the Detroit Tigers. Bench coach Alex Cora, considered the ringleader of the scheme, had gone on to manage the Boston Red Sox to their World Series victory in 2018 (with subsequent allegations that the team had broken MLB rules regarding video usage during that season), but although Cora left the Red Sox in 2020 because of the Astros scandal fallout, he was quietly re-hired to manage the team at the end of the year.

As for Carlos Beltrán, he was slated to manage the New York Mets for the 2020 season, but that fell through as he withdrew from the position. Now he faces his first vote on a Hall of Fame ballot. As for Hall of Fame voters, they face a new transgression for which to devise the appropriate chastisement for the offender.

Sign-stealing is nothing new in baseball. In fact, cheating is nothing new in baseball, not even PED as players have been looking for a chemical boost since the 19th century; as former MLB relief pitcher Tom House has noted, the only thing that has changed from his era in the 1970s is that the substances players were willing to try have become far more effective. But while BBWAA voters have been wrestling with PED Penitents for more than a decade, there is no recent precedent concerning a Hall of Fame candidate who admitted to his involvement in a cheating scandal by a tainted team that achieved a tainted world championship.

Beltrán will need to be punished, of course. Even without the scandal, Beltrán was not likely to be a first-ballot inductee as he had just one top-ten finish in Most Valuable Player Award voting and never led the league in any significant offensive category. Joining the Astros at the tail-end of his career, he made 509 plate appearances primarily as a designated hitter and was not a significant on-field factor in the postseason, logging just three plate appearances during the seven-game World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

You can quickly counter that Beltrán's worth was in the dugout, and a sizeable percentage of BBWAA voters will cite just that as they recite the Rule Five mantra of "integrity," "sportsmanship," and "character" that has assumed overriding prominence during a candidate's playing career on the field (Ramirez, Rodriguez, and all the other PED Penitents), in the dugout (Beltrán), and off the field after a candidate's playing career (Schilling, Vizquel).

I would vote for Carlos Beltrán just to help keep him on the ballot even though he is likely to receive substantially more than the five-percent minimum required. What may be the most fascinating aspect to 2023's voting is seeing what his initial support is, and then watching subsequent ballots for the trend.

6. Andruw Jones: Speaking of trends, Andruw Jones's has been encouraging after a nominal start, and I would keep adding to it.

5. Gary Sheffield: With just one more year left on the ballot, and although Gary Sheffield has been trending favorably as well, I would want to underscore that with a definite vote.

4. Bobby Abreu: At this point, Bobby Abreu is to me the most critical candidate on the ballot in terms of keeping him on the ballot. He still has six more chances after this ballot, but in three tries he hasn't reached double digits yet, so a vote for him is crucial.

3. Billy Wagner: Having cleared the 50-percent hurdle is a good sign for Billy Wagner, but with just two more ballots after this one, every vote counts every time.

2. Scott Rolen: Having both cleared the 60-percent hurdle and with four more potential ballot appearances after 2023, Scott Rolen is in the catbird seat among all of this year's candidates, but I would consider this to be my second-most critical vote because not only does electing him to the Hall free up a slot on subsequent ballots but—far more importantly—he is a no-doubt Hall of Famer so don't mess around: Elect him now.

1. Jeff Kent: They say you shouldn't bother watering a dying flower, but despite a static tally in 2022, Jeff Kent has reached the 30-percent plateau in the last two votes, so this flower is not dead yet. It's highly unlikely that he'll shoot up like a rocket to snag the 75 percent needed for induction, but a strong final-year rally might stay in the memories of voter on the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for players should Kent be on that ballot three years from now. In any case, there is no question that I would like to see BBWAA voters elect Jeff Kent to the Hall of Fame, where he belongs.

The Short Straw: Todd Helton. The Colorado Rockies' franchise player is the ideal "short straw" candidate because (1) I believe that Helton is a Hall of Fame-caliber player, (2) his voting trajectory is similar to that of Scott Rolen's, who is well on his way to Cooperstown, and (3) he has, on this ballot, reached his midpoint and, if he doesn't get voted in this year, he has five more chances to be voted in before his time is up.

Seeming to have beaten the Coors Field bias, Todd Helton has been building voter support to put him on the path to Cooperstown before his time on the ballot expires.


So, sorry you had to take the hit, Todd, but, hey, sacrifices are all part of baseball, aren't they? You've helped to "advance the runner," and maybe all the way home to Cooperstown, at least on my hypothetical ballot.

 

Appendix: Player Statistics

This section contains career statistics for all the player-candidates appearing on the 2023 Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

The statistics have been broken out separately for position players, starting pitchers, and relief pitchers, in that order. All three candidate sections contain tables listing statistics for player value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume or quantitative statistics), effectiveness (rate or qualitative statistics), and recognition (awards and leaderboard statistics); the relief-pitcher section contains an additional effectiveness table for statistics more specific to a reliever's closely-defined role.

Beneath the first instance of each table are descriptions of the statistics listed in the table. Those descriptions are not repeated in subsequent tables although any new statistics are described. Note: Standard or traditional statistics and their common abbreviations (for example, HR for home runs) are not defined. Readers who have come this far are assumed to know these already.

Position Players on the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

The following tables contain statistics for the 18 position players on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot.

As with starting- and relief pitchers, these four tables help to illustrate the qualities of position-player value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber position player from other position players. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.

The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table) for the position players on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR. Position players appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Hall of Fame Statistics for Position Players on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Player	Pos.	fWAR	bWAR	WAR7	JAWS	JAWS Rank*	WPA	HoF Mon. (≈100)	HoF Std. (≈50)
Rodriguez, Álex	SS	113.7	117.8	64.3	91.0	2	59.2	390	76
Rolen, Scott	3B	69.9	70.1	43.6	56.9	10	30.9	99	40
Beltran, Carlos	CF	67.8	70.1	44.4	57.2	9	35.8	126	52
Ramirez, Manny	LF	66.3	69.3	39.9	54.6	10	56.1	226	69
Jones, Andruw	CF	67.0	62.7	46.4	54.6	11	12.5	109	34
Helton, Todd	1B	54.9	61.8	46.6	54.2	15	52.7	175	59
Sheffield, Gary	RF	62.1	60.5	38.0	49.3	23	59.9	158	61
Abreu, Bobby	RF	59.8	60.2	41.6	50.9	20	49.0	94	54
Kent, Jeff	2B	56.0	55.4	35.8	45.6	21	22.9	122	51
Hunter, Torii	CF	43.0	50.1	30.8	40.4	34	3.8	58	34
Rollins, Jimmy	SS	49.4	46.3	32.4	39.3	32	8.5	121	42
Vizquel, Omar	SS	42.5	45.6	26.8	36.2	41	–17.5	120	42
Ellsbury, Jacoby	CF	30.0	31.1	27.9	29.6	79	10.8	36	16
Peralta, Jhonny	SS	28.7	30.4	26.5	28.4	74	–3.0	34	24
Werth, Jayson	RF	36.0	29.2	27.5	28.3	82	16.1	19	23
Hardy, J.J.	SS	27.6	28.1	24.0	26.0	82	–7.9	18	19
Napoli, Mike	C	21.0	26.3	22.0	24.2	53	5.8	17	25
Ethier, Andre	RF	24.2	21.5	18.8	20.2	121	17.5	21	18

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

WAR7: The sum of a player's best seven seasons as defined by bWAR; they need not be consecutive seasons.

JAWS: Jaffe WAR Score system—an average of a player's career WAR and his seven-year WAR peak.

JAWS Rank: The player's ranking at that position by JAWS rating. (*) In this table, JAWS rank is for the player at his primary position only and is not a ranking of all position players.

WPA: Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a player has influenced the outcome of a given game through his offensive contribution.

Hall of Fame Monitor: An index of how likely a player is to be inducted to the Hall of Fame based on his entire playing record (offensive, defensive, awards, position played, postseason success), with an index score of 100 being a good possibility and 130 a "virtual cinch." Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Hall of Fame Standards: An index of performance standards, indexed to 50 as being the score for an average Hall of Famer. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics, for the position players appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by hits. Position players appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Volume Statistics for Position Players on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Hits
	GP	PA	H	2B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SB
Rodriguez, Álex	2784	12,207	3115	548	696	2021	2086	1338	329
Vizquel, Omar	2968	12,013	2877	456	80	1445	951	1028	404
Beltran, Carlos	2586	11,031	2725	565	435	1582	1587	1084	312
Sheffield, Gary	2576	10,947	2689	467	509	1636	1676	1475	253
Ramirez, Manny	2302	9774	2574	547	555	1544	1831	1329	38
Helton, Todd	2247	9453	2519	592	369	1401	1406	1335	37
Abreu, Bobby	2425	10,081	2470	574	288	1453	1363	1476	400
Kent, Jeff	2298	9537	2461	560	377	1320	1518	801	94
Rollins, Jimmy	2275	10,240	2455	511	231	1421	936	813	470
Hunter, Torii	2372	9692	2452	498	353	1296	1391	661	195
Rolen, Scott	2038	8518	2077	517	316	1211	1287	899	118
Jones, Andruw	2196	8664	1933	383	434	1204	1289	891	152
Peralta, Jhonny	1798	7319	1761	376	202	841	873	606	17
Hardy, J.J.	1561	6309	1488	291	188	718	688	411	8
Werth, Jayson	1583	6366	1465	300	229	883	799	764	132
Ellsbury, Jacoby	1235	5375	1376	241	104	749	512	399	343
Ethier, Andre	1455	5425	1367	303	162	641	687	519	29
Napoli, Mike	1392	5330	1125	224	267	697	744	650	39

The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers (explained in the legend beneath the table), for the position players appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by Adjusted Weighted Runs Created. Position players appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Rate Statistics for Position Players on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Adjusted Weighted Runs Created
	Slash Line	wOBA	wRC+	OPS+	WAA	RAA	oWAR
Ramirez, Manny	.312/.411/.585/.996	.418	153	154	35.7	369	81.8
Rodriguez, Álex	.295/.380/.550/.930	.395	141	140	76.1	788	115.3
Sheffield, Gary	.292/.393/.514/.907	.391	141	140	26.0	278	80.8
Helton, Todd	.316/.414/.539/.953	.405	132	133	33.4	362	54.5
Abreu, Bobby	.291/.395/.475/.870	.378	129	128	28.3	300	61.6
Kent, Jeff	.290/.356/.500/.855	.367	123	123	26.6	290	60.1
Rolen, Scott	.281/.364/.490/.855	.368	122	122	44.0	456	52.7
Ethier, Andre	.285/.359/.463/.822	.359	122	122	4.9	56	24.5
Werth, Jayson	.267/.360/.455/.816	.356	120	117	9.6	104	29.4
Napoli, Mike	.246/.346/.475/.831	.355	119	117	7.5	64	27.8
Beltran, Carlos	.279/.350/.486/.837	.358	118	119	34.4	351	66.6
Jones, Andruw	.254/.337/.486/.823	.352	111	111	35.9	378	39.8
Hunter, Torii	.277/.331/.461/.793	.342	110	110	15.8	146	47.5
Ellsbury, Jacoby	.284/.342/.417/.760	.333	104	103	13.1	114	27.8
Peralta, Jhonny	.267/.329/.423/.752	.328	103	102	4.9	41	33.5
Rollins, Jimmy	.264/.324/.418/.743	.323	95	95	16.7	186	43.7
Hardy, J.J.	.256/.305/.408/.714	.311	89	91	7.2	68	19.4
Vizquel, Omar	.272/.336/.352/.688	.310	83	82	5.3	51	32.9

Slash Line: Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS).

wOBA: Weighted on-base average as calculated by FanGraphs. Weighs singles, extra-base hits, walks, and hits by pitch; generally, .400 is excellent and .320 is league-average.

wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

oWAR: Offensive Wins Above Replacement, Baseball Reference's WAR without defensive computation.

The table below details the awards and leader statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table) for the position players appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by Black-Ink Test. Position players appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Position Players on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Black-Ink Test
Player	MVP	MVP Top 10	All-Star	Silver Slugger	Gold Glove	RoY	Black Ink	Gray Ink
Rodriguez, Álex	3	10	14	10	2	0	68	214
Ramirez, Manny	0	9	12	9	0	0	21	154
Helton, Todd	0	3	5	4	3	0	16	143
Rollins, Jimmy	1	2	3	1	4	0	14	82
Jones, Andruw	0	2	5	1	10	0	10	47
Ellsbury, Jacoby	0	1	1	1	1	0	7	47
Abreu, Bobby	0	0	2	1	1	0	5	88
Sheffield, Gary	0	6	11	5	0	0	4	123
Werth, Jayson	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	36
Beltran, Carlos	0	2	12	2	3	1	1	76
Kent, Jeff	1	4	5	4	0	0	0	71
Hunter, Torii	0	1	5	2	9	0	0	29
Rolen, Scott	0	1	7	1	7	1	0	27
Vizquel, Omar	0	0	3	0	11	0	0	25
Ethier, Andre	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	12
Peralta, Jhonny	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	11
Napoli, Mike	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Hardy, J.J.	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	5

MVP: Most Valuable Player Award.

MVP Top 10: Number of times a player finished in the top 10 of his league's MVP voting. Includes an MVP win.

Silver Slugger Award: Awarded to the best offensive player at every position.

RoY: Rookie of the Year Award.

Black Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a player led his league in significant batting statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 27. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Gray-Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a player appeared in the top ten of his league in significant batting statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 144. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Starting Pitchers on the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

The following tables contain statistics for the seven starting pitchers on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot.

As with position players and relief pitchers, these four tables help to illustrate the qualities of starting-pitcher value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber starting pitcher from other starters. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.

The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics for all the starting pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR. Starting pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type. (See the legend beneath the table for position players above for explanations of the categories.)

Hall of Fame Statistics for Starting Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Player	fWAR	bWAR	WAR7	JAWS	JAWS Rank	WPA	HoF Mon. (≈100)	HoF Std. (≈50)
Pettitte, Andy	68.2	60.2	34.1	47.2	81	24.2	128	44
Buehrle, Mark	52.3	59.1	35.8	47.4	78	17.2	52	31
Lackey, John	43.2	37.3	29.2	33.3	206	–4.7	48	28
Weaver, Jered	30.4	34.6	31.2	32.9	211	–1.1	47	30
Cain, Matt	28.1	29.1	29.0	29.1	274	–9.0	26	14
Dickey, R.A.	18.5	23.6	22.4	23.0	406	–3.4	25	11
Arroyo, Bronson	21.6	23.4	22.8	23.1	403	–9.2	15	15

WPA: Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a starting pitcher has influenced the outcome of a given game through his pitching contribution.

The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table), for all the starting pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by innings pitched. Starting pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Volume Statistics for Starting Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Innings Pitched
Pitcher	GS	IP	Win-Loss	PCT	Hits	HR	BB	SO
Pettitte, Andy	521	3316.0	256–153	.626	3448	288	1031	2448
Buehrle, Mark	493	3283.1	214–160	.572	3472	361	734	1870
Lackey, John	446	2840.1	188–147	.561	2862	319	815	2294
Arroyo, Bronson	383	2435.2	148–137	.519	2507	347	661	1571
Cain, Matt	331	2085.2	104–118	.468	1849	211	712	1694
Dickey, R.A.	300	2073.2	120–118	.504	2033	264	663	1477
Weaver, Jered	331	2067.1	150–98	.605	1912	262	551	1621

GS: Career games started.

IP: Career innings pitched.

Win-Loss: Career win-loss record.

PCT: Career win-loss percentage.

The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers (explained in the legend beneath the table), for the starting pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by weighted Adjusted Earned Run Average Plus (ERA+). Starting pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Rate Statistics for Starting Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by ERA+
Pitcher	ERA	ERA+	RA9	FIP	WHIP	RAA	WAA	SO9	SO/W
Buehrle, Mark	3.81	117	4.23	4.11	1.281	275	29.4	5.1	2.55
Pettitte, Andy	3.85	117	4.27	3.74	1.351	286	29.8	6.6	2.37
Weaver, Jered	3.63	111	3.83	4.07	1.191	134	15.5	7.1	2.94
Lackey, John	3.92	110	4.27	3.95	1.295	105	12.0	7.3	2.81
Cain, Matt	3.68	108	3.93	3.92	1.228	111	12.7	7.3	2.38
Dickey, R.A.	4.04	103	4.41	4.41	1.300	36	5.0	6.4	2.23
Arroyo, Bronson	4.28	101	4.66	4.60	1.592	38	4.8	5.8	2.38

ERA: Career earned run average.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

RA9: Career runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Includes unearned runs.

FIP: Career fielding-independent pitching. Measures effectiveness at minimizing home runs, walks, and hits by pitch and at maximizing strikeouts.

WHIP: Career walks and hits allowed per innings pitched.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

SO9: Career strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

SO/W: Career strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

The table below details the awards and leader statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table) for the starting pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by Black-Ink Test. Starting pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Starting Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Black-Ink Test
Player	CYA	CYA Top 5	MVP Top 10	All-Star	Gold Glove	RoY	Black Ink	Gray Ink
Weaver, Jered	0	3	0	3	0	0	19	99
Dickey, R.A.	1	1	0	1	1	0	13	60
Buehrle, Mark	0	1	0	5	4	0	12	116
Lackey, John	0	1	0	1	0	0	8	82
Pettitte, Andy	0	4	0	3	0	0	7	103
Arroyo, Bronson	0	0	0	1	1	0	6	63
Cain, Matt	0	0	0	3	0	0	3	81

CYA: Cy Young Award.

CYA Top 5: Number of times a player finished in the top 5 of his league's Cy Young Award voting. Includes a Cy Young Award MVP win.

MVP Top 10: Number of times a player finished in the top 10 of his league's MVP voting. Includes an MVP win. (*) Indicates that the pitcher won at least one MVP Award.

Black Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a pitcher led his league in significant pitching statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 40. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Gray-Ink Test: Weighted measurement of times a pitcher appeared in the top ten of his league in significant pitching statistics. An average Hall of Famer has a measurement of about 185. Developed by Baseball Reference from a creation by Bill James.

Relief Pitchers on the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

The following tables contain statistics for the three relief pitchers on the 2023 Hall of Fame ballot.

As with both position players and starting pitchers, these five tables help to illustrate the qualities of relief-pitcher value (Hall of Fame statistics), longevity (volume statistics), effectiveness (rate statistics and relief pitcher effectiveness), and recognition (awards and leader statistics) that distinguish a Hall of Fame-caliber relief pitcher from other relievers. They might not tell the entire story, but they compose a significant portion of it.

The table below details the Hall of Fame statistics for the relief pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR. Relief pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type. (See the legend beneath the table for position players above for explanations of the categories.)

Hall of Fame Statistics for Relief Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Player	fWAR	bWAR	WAR7	JAWS	R-JAWS	WPA	HoF Mon. (≈100)	HoF Std. (≈50)
Wagner, Billy	24.0	27.7	19.8	23.7	24.9	29.1	107	24
Rodriguez, Francisco	16.3	24.2	17.6	20.9	21.1	0.0	124	16
Street, Huston	10.6	14.5	12.2	13.3	14.8	–0.1	57	23

R-JAWS: Reliever JAWS. JAWS adjusted to offset WAR generated by pitchers with a significant number of appearances as a starting pitcher. Calculated as the average of bWAR, Win Probability Added (WPA), and WPA divided by Leverage Index (LI) (WPA/LI).

WPA: Win Probability Added, the likelihood that a relief pitcher has influenced the outcome of a given game through his pitching contribution.

The table below details the volume statistics, or the counting numbers or quantitative statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table), for the relief pitchers appearing appear on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by appearances. Relief pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Volume Statistics for Relief Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Appearances
Pitcher	APP	IP	SV	BS	HLD	Hits	HR	BB	SO
Rodriguez, Francisco	948	976.0	437	76	88	738	98	389	1142
Wagner, Billy	853	903.0	422	69	13	601	82	300	1196
Street, Huston	668	680.0	324	52	16	542	70	183	665

APP: Career appearances.

IP: Career innings pitched.

SV: Career saves.

BS: Career blown saves.

HLD: Career holds.

The table below details the rate statistics, or the qualitative numbers (explained in the legend beneath the table), for the relief pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by weighted Adjusted Earned Run Average Plus (ERA+). Relief pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

ERA: Career earned run average.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

RA9: Career runs allowed per nine innings pitched. Includes unearned runs.

FIP: Career fielding-independent pitching. Measures effectiveness at minimizing home runs, walks, and hits by pitch and at maximizing strikeouts.

WHIP: Career walks and hits allowed per innings pitched.

WAA: Wins Above Average, the number of wins the player is worth above a league-average player.

RAA: Runs Above Average, the number of runs the player is worth above a league-average player.

SO9: Career strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

SO/W: Career strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

The table below details the relief-pitcher effectiveness statistics (explained in the legend beneath the table) for the relief pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by Average Leverage Index (aLI). Relief pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type.

Relief Pitchers Effectiveness for Relief Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Average Leverage Index
Pitcher	Slash Line	SV%	aLI	IR	IS	IS%	SO%
Wagner, Billy	.187/.262/.296/.558	86	1.812	166	46	28	33.2
Rodriguez, Francisco	.207/.287/.341/.628	85	1.803	244	70	29	28.5
Street, Huston	.218/.272/.351/.623	86	1.756	131	37	28	24.5

Slash Line: Aggregate opposing hitters' batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage plus slugging percentage against the pitcher.

SV%: Career save percentage, total saves divided by total save opportunities, with save opportunities the total of all saves and all blown saves.

aLI: Average leverage index, or the amount of pressure faced by a pitcher, with 1.0 indicating average pressure and values greater than 1.0 indicating high pressure.

IR: Career inherited runners. Number of runners on base when a pitcher entered the game.

IS: Career inherited runners scored. Number of a pitcher’s inherited runners who scored. Note that these runs are charged to the previous pitcher.

IS%: Career percentage of inherited runners who score while the pitcher is in the game.

SO%: Career strikeout percentage, or the percentage of all plate appearances that result in a strikeout.

The table below details the awards and leader statistics for the relief pitchers appearing on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by Gray-Ink Test. Relief pitchers appearing for the first time on the ballot are in bold type. (See the legend beneath the table for starting pitchers above for category descriptions.)

Awards and Leaders Statistics for Relief Pitchers on the 2023 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by Gray-Ink Test
Player	CYA	CYA Top 5	MVP Top 10	All-Star	Gold Glove	RoY	Black Ink	Gray Ink
Wagner, Billy	0	1	0	7	0	0	0	31
Rodriguez, Francisco	0	3	1	6	0	0	10	29
Street, Huston	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12