- Published in From the Desk of the Chairman
NBA MVP Betting: The Biggest Snubs in Award History and How Odds Shifted
The NBA MVP award is supposed to honor the league’s most outstanding player each season. However, history tells a different story—one filled with controversy, unexpected winners, and betting odds that didn’t quite reflect reality. Some players dominated the court but still walked away empty-handed, leaving fans and bettors questioning the criteria behind the voting process. Understanding these snubs provides insight into how MVP betting odds can shift dramatically and why certain favorites don’t always come out on top.
1. Wilt Chamberlain (1961-62) – The Best Season Ever Ignored
Wilt Chamberlain’s 1961-62 season remains one of the most statistically dominant in NBA history. He averaged 50.4 points and 25.7 rebounds per game—numbers that seem impossible today. Despite that, the MVP award went to Bill Russell, whose Boston Celtics finished with a better record.
At the time, there was no widespread media coverage as is standard today—no NBA player updates flooding social media, no daily debates shaping public perception. Instead, MVP voting was heavily influenced by team success and traditional sportswriters’ opinions. Had more extensive sports coverage (or even social media for that matter) been the norm, Chamberlain’s record-breaking performances would have dominated headlines, possibly shifting voter sentiment.
This was a prime example of how MVP voters valued team performance over individual effort. Chamberlain’s betting odds likely made him a favorite, but once voters focused on team success, Russell’s odds would have surged (especially as the season drew to a close). This serves as a reminder that even overwhelming stats don’t guarantee MVP honors if the team isn't in contention.
2. Michael Jordan (1996-97) – The Voter Fatigue Effect
Michael Jordan was the face of the NBA in the 1990s, but that didn’t stop him from being snubbed in the 1996-97 MVP race. Karl Malone won the award despite Jordan leading the Bulls to a 69-win season while averaging 29.6 points per game.
This was a textbook case of voter fatigue—when a player is so dominant for so long that voters look for fresh candidates. Jordan’s odds likely reflected his dominance and his standing in the MVP race throughout the season, but as media narratives shifted toward Malone’s contribution to the Jazz, the betting lines adjusted - and one of the generation’s greatest players lost out. This demonstrates how external narratives, rather than pure performance, can drive MVP outcomes.
3. Shaquille O’Neal (1999-2000) – The Near-Unanimous MVP That Wasn’t
Shaquille O’Neal was nearly the unanimous MVP in 2000, except for one voter who selected Allen Iverson instead. While this didn't change the result, it highlighted the unpredictable nature of voting. A single rogue vote meant that O’Neal wasn’t the unanimous choice - and that must have rankled.
In the betting markets, heavy favorites like Shaq tend to see their odds shorten early, but unexpected votes or media storylines can create last-minute fluctuations. This case proves that even when a winner seems inevitable, external factors—like voter bias—can influence final results.
4. Steve Nash (2005-06) – Did Stats Matter?
Steve Nash winning back-to-back MVPs was already controversial, but his 2006 victory over Kobe Bryant remains a defining snub. Bryant averaged 35.4 points per game and had multiple historic performances, yet Nash, who led a high-paced Suns team, took home the award.
Bryant’s MVP betting odds would have been favorable, especially after his 81-point game. However, MVP voting has always valued team records and efficiency, which worked in Nash’s favor. This case underscores how betting lines can shift based on voter preferences rather than statistical dominance.
5. LeBron James (2010-11) – The Derrick Rose Narrative Shift
LeBron James was arguably the best player in the world during the 2010-11 season, but Derrick Rose won MVP, largely because voters wanted to reward a fresh storyline. Rose led the Bulls to the best record in the NBA, while James, who had recently joined Miami, was dealing with a public relations battle over “The Decision” - James' highly publicized announcement on July 8, 2010, where he revealed his decision to leave the Cleveland Cavaliers and join the Miami Heat.
Betting markets initially favored James, but as Rose’s impact became clearer and media narratives intensified, the odds shifted. This moment emphasized how MVP betting isn’t just about stats—it’s about perception.
Betting Takeaways from MVP Snubs
These historical snubs reveal important trends for MVP betting:
- Team success often outweighs individual dominance. Even the most statistically impressive players don’t always win if their team struggles. Bettors should keep this in mind when betting on NBA odds, as a player's performance alone isn’t always enough to secure the award.
- Media narratives can drastically shift odds. A strong season-long performance isn’t enough if a compelling storyline emerges for another player.
- Voter fatigue impacts multi-time winners. Once a player has won multiple MVPs, voters tend to look elsewhere, which can impact odds late in the season.
While betting on MVP favorites seems logical, history shows that surprises happen when least expected. Tracking how narratives develop throughout the season is just as crucial as analyzing on-court performance. Now you have an excuse to stay up to date with all things NBA related - as if you needed one.
