IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2014 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION

Will this year's voting, which is open to qualified BBWAA members until the end of the year, with the results announced on January 8, 2014, again send "black smoke" up the Hall of Fame chimney? Or will we see "white smoke" signifying at least one player elected to the Hall? (When Catholic cardinals vote for a new pope, their ballots are burned in a special oven in the Vatican City's Sistine Chapel, and unsuccessful ballots, those that do not produce a new pope, yield black smoke; white smoke signifies a new pope.)

Last year, with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens on the ballot for the first time, the furor over PEDs reached its apex—on numbers alone, Clemens and Bonds are supremely qualified, but because both were poster boys for PEDs, it cast a pall over the entire process. (Bonds was convicted of obstruction of justice in 2011, subsequently upheld on appeal in 2013, in connection with the Bay Area Laboratory Co-Operative (BALCO) investigation. Clemens was acquitted of perjury charges in 2012 stemming from his testimony before Congress in 2008.) This year, although there are first-time candidates with PEDs associations (Eric Gagné, Paul Lo Duca) on the ballot, the first-time marquee names—Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Frank Thomas—have no such association; indeed, Frank Thomas, the only active player willing to be named in the 2007 Mitchell Report on PEDs and baseball, has always been an outspoken advocate for drug testing and has been sharply critical of any player using illegal substances.

Does that mean that the BBWAA will actually elect at least one of the many qualified candidates? Or does the surfeit of qualified candidates mean that it will be impossible to find 75 percent agreement on any of them? And will the PEDs issue continue to inform the voters' choices? First, let's introduce the 2014 candidates.

Candidates for the 2014 Hall of Fame Ballot

For the 2014 ballot, there are 36 total candidates, 17 returning candidates from previous ballots and 19 first-time-eligible candidates. The returning candidates have garnered at least five percent of the vote last year (the minimum percentage required to remain eligible) and they have not exceeded their 15th year on the ballot. Last year, Dale Murphy did not receive 75 percent of the vote in his final year of eligibility and was dropped from the ballot without being elected to the Hall of Fame. (Murphy's next chance for the Hall is on a future Expansion Era-committee ballot.) This year, Jack Morris is in his final year of eligibility; last year, he received the second-highest vote total with 67.7 percent. Don Mattingly is in his 14th year this year, while Alan Trammell is in his 13th year.

The remaining returning candidates are Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Lee Smith, Sammy Sosa, and Larry Walker.

The 19 first-time candidates are Moisés Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Ray Durham, Eric Gagné, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Jeff Kent, Paul Lo Duca, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, Hideo Nomo, Kenny Rogers, Ritchie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Frank Thomas, and Mike Timlin.

The following two tables list the 36 candidates on the 2014 ballot, first the 23 position players, and then the 13 pitchers. They are ranked by their career Wins Above Replacement from Baseball Reference (bWAR) along with other representative qualitative statistics (explained below each table).

Here are the 23 position players on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Position Players on the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Position Player	Slash Line	wOBA	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
Bonds, Barry	.298/.444/.607	.435	162.5	164.1	182	173
Bagwell, Jeff	.297/.408/.540	.405	79.5	80.3	149	149
Thomas, Frank	.301/.419/.555	.416	73.6	72.4	156	154
Walker, Larry	.313/.400/.565	.412	72.6	69.0	141	140
Palmeiro, Rafael	.288/.371/.515	.380	71.8	70.0	132	130
Trammell, Alan	.285/.352/.415	.343	70.3	63.7	110	111
Raines, Tim	.294/.385/.425	.361	69.1	66.4	123	125
Martinez, Edgar	.312/.418/.515	.405	68.3	65.6	147	147
Biggio, Craig	.281/.363/.433	.352	64.9	65.3	112	115
McGwire, Mark	.263/.394/.588	.415	62.0	66.3	163	157
Piazza, Mike	.308/.377/.545	.390	59.2	63.6	143	140
Sosa, Sammy	.273/.344/.534	.370	58.4	60.4	128	124
Kent, Jeff	.290/.356/.500	.367	55.2	56.6	123	123
McGriff, Fred	.284/.377/.509	.383	52.6	57.2	134	134
Gonzalez, Luis	.283/.367/.479	.364	51.5	55.3	119	118
Mattingly, Don	.307/.358/.471	.361	42.2	40.7	127	124
Alou, Moisés	.303/.369/.516	.378	39.7	48.2	128	129
Durham, Ray	.377/.352/.436	.345	33.7	30.3	104	105
Lo Duca, Paul	.286/.337/.409	.325	17.9	17.8	97	97
Sexson, Ritchie	.261/.344/.507	.363	17.9	17.2	120	118
Casey, Sean	.302/.367/.447	.353	16.3	16.1	109	109
Jones, Jacque	.277/.326/.448	.333	11.5	13.1	98	97
Snow, J.T.	.268/.357/.427	.344	11.0	12.6	105	106

Slash Line: Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.

wOBA: Weighted on-base average as calculated by FanGraphs. Weighs singles, extra-base hits, walks, and hits by pitch; generally, .400 is excellent and .320 is league-average.

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

Here are the 13 pitchers on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR.

Pitchers on the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Pitcher	W-L (S), ERA	bWAR	fWAR	ERA+	ERA-	FIP--
Clemens, Roger	354-184, 3.12	139.4	139.5	143	70	70
Maddux, Greg	355-227, 3.16	104.6	113.9	132	76	78
Mussina, Mike	270-153, 3.68	82.7	82.5	123	82	81
Schilling, Curt	216-146, 3.46	80.7	83.2	127	80	74
Glavine, Tom	305-203, 3.54	74.0	64.3	118	86	94
Rogers, Kenny	219-156, 4.27	51.1	46.8	107	93	97
Morris, Jack	254-186, 3.90	43.8	52.5	105	95	97
Smith, Lee	71-92 (478), 3.03	29.4	27.3	132	76	74
Nomo, Hideo	123-109, 4.24	21.8	24.1	97	102	101
Timlin, Mike	75-73 (141), 3.63	19.2	13.2	125	81	88
Benitez, Armando	40-47 (289), 3.13	17.4	9.0	140	71	88
Gagné, Eric	33-26 (187), 3.47	11.7	11.9	119	83	84
Jones, Todd	58-63 (319), 3.97	10.4	11.2	111	89	89

W-L (S), ERA: Grouping of the pitcher's career win-loss record (and career saves, if applicable) and career earned run average (ERA).

bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.

fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.

ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

ERA-: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

FIP-: Fielding-independent pitching, a pitcher's ERA with his fielders' impact factored out, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 FIP- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

The table below combines both position players and pitchers into a ranking by bWAR with their fWAR values also listed.

All 2014 Hall of Fame Candidates, Ranked by bWAR
Rank	Player	bWAR	fWAR
1	Bonds, Barry	162.5	164.1
2	Clemens, Roger	133.1	145.5
3	Maddux, Greg	104.6	113.9
4	Mussina, Mike	82.7	82.5
5	Schilling, Curt	80.7	83.2
6	Bagwell, Jeff	79.5	80.3
7	Glavine, Tom	74.0	64.3
8	Thomas, Frank	73.6	72.4
9	Walker, Larry	72.6	69.0
10	Palmeiro, Rafael	71.8	70.0
11	Trammell, Alan	70.3	63.7
12	Raines, Tim	69.1	66.4
13	Martinez, Edgar	68.3	65.6
14	Biggio, Craig	64.9	65.3
15	McGwire, Mark	62.0	66.3
16	Piazza, Mike	59.2	63.6
17	Sosa, Sammy	58.4	60.4
18	Kent, Jeff	55.2	56.6
19	McGriff, Fred	52.6	57.2
20	Gonzalez, Luis	51.5	55.3
21	Rogers, Kenny	51.1	46.8
22	Morris, Jack	43.8	52.5
23	Mattingly, Don	42.2	40.7
24	Alou, Moisés	39.7	48.2
25	Durham, Ray	33.7	30.3
26	Smith, Lee	29.4	27.3
27	Nomo, Hideo	21.8	24.1
28	Timlin, Mike	19.2	13.2
29	Lo Duca, Paul	17.9	17.8
30	Sexson, Ritchie	17.9	17.2
31	Benitez, Armando	17.4	9.0
32	Casey, Sean	16.3	16.1
33	Gagné, Eric	11.7	11.9
34	Jones, Jacque	11.5	13.1
35	Snow, J.T.	11.0	12.6
36	Jones, Todd	10.4	11.2

Ranking the candidates by fWAR (the FanGraphs version) will alter the order to some degree but in most cases not enough to favor (or disfavor) a candidate significantly. (Armando Benitez does drop from 31st place to the bottom of the list.) And although WAR should not be the One Statistic to Rule Them All, it is a strong indicator of value, and it is the only statistic that enables comparison between pitchers and position players.

Using 50 wins above a replacement player as a baseline, that makes 21 players reasonable candidates for the Hall of Fame—more than twice the number that can be voted upon on a single ballot. Further examination is needed.

Past Performance: Reviewing the Previous Ballot

When I did my analysis of the Baseball Hall of Fame ballot two years ago, I identified eight candidates I would vote for. One was Barry Larkin, who was the only player the writers voted into the Hall in 2012. Last year, I identified 14 candidates, and because last year was such a historic vote, I wrote a two-part series, the first part providing a historical overview of both the overstuffed ballot ("Embarrassment of Riches") and the Steroids Era ("Embarrassment of Conduct") including a brief look at cheating throughout baseball history. The second part provided the evaluations of the players on the 2013 ballot, including the 14 I thought were (and still are) worthy of the Hall of Fame. Of course, none of them were elected, and one of them, Kenny Lofton, was dropped from the ballot for not receiving at least five percent of the vote.

Last year's analysis was, er, "comprehensive" to say the least, but given its historic impact it was merited. This year, though, we are still seeing more of the same. First, the performance-enhancing drugs controversy is not going away; there are some first-timers with known associations with PEDs (Eric Gagné, Paul Lo Duca) and at least one, Luis Gonzalez, suspected of PEDs usage although no evidence has emerged to corroborate the allegation. However, none are serious candidates for the Hall.

Last year, Roger Clemens polled 37.6 percent of the vote while Barry Bonds received 36.2 percent. Sammy Sosa, another prominent face of PEDs in his first year on the ballot, stayed alive with 12.5 percent of the vote, and previous PEDs poster boys Mark McGwire (16.9 percent) and Rafael Palmeiro (8.8 percent), both of whom have admitted, either in McGwire's case explicitly or in Palmeiro's case implicitly, to having had used PEDs, took a hit to their vote totals as both dropped from previous years. On the other hand, six other players with no connections to PEDs also saw declines in their vote totals while three players—Jeff Bagwell, who, like Luis Gonzalez, is suspected of PEDs usage even though no evidence has emerged to substantiate the claim, Jack Morris, and Tim Raines—saw upticks in their vote totals.

Meanwhile, Craig Biggio and Curt Schilling, generally regarded as "clean," PEDs-wise (although rumors float around Biggio as he was teammates with Bagwell for so many years, which is a case of guilt by association stemming from guilt by supposition), survived their first ballot: Schilling polled a modest 38.8 percent although Biggio emerged at the top vote-getter, garnering 68.2 percent of the vote, which is an impressive debut considering the packed ballot. Finally, Mike Piazza, who has admitted to using androstenedione ("andro," most notably associated with McGwire) early in his career, when androstenedione was still available over the counter and not yet banned by Major League Baseball, produced the fourth-best showing on the ballot with 57.8 percent.

Will voters continue to punish the PEDs users this year? Both Bonds and Clemens received half the votes needed for admission, and on their playing numbers alone both would have sailed into the Hall on their first ballot without the PEDs taint. McGwire, the PEDs-associated candidate who has survived the longest on the ballot, is less than one-fourth the way toward the necessary votes he needs as he stands at the midpoint of his allotted time on the ballot, provided he can maintain the necessary five percent to stay on the ballot. Palmeiro, who with 3020 hits and 569 home runs is only one of four men ever to reach at least 3000 hits and 500 home runs (the other three being Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Eddie Murray), has yet to break 13 percent in three tries so far, with last year's showing the weakest although the ballot has grown increasingly heavy even in the three years Palmeiro has been on it. So, how the voters will regard the PEDs-associated candidates remains to be seen, but if they do provide even less support than previously, it could be because the ballot is even heavier than it had been previously.

Just the addition of Tom Glavine, Jeff Kent, Greg Maddux, Mike Mussina, and Frank Thomas makes the 2014 ballot more challenging. Three more first-timers—Luis Gonzalez, Moisés Alou, and Kenny Rogers—are additional weight although in a "normal" year they would generate some discussion but not the serious kind, and in this year they hardly merit discussion. That's not a slight to them—it's a reflection of how much genuine Hall of Fame talent is on the ballot.

And since the BBWAA ballot as it exists today, and for the 2014 vote, allows a maximum of ten candidates, I am approaching this assessment with the goal of naming the ten players I would vote for this year were I a voting member.

Slashing the List in Half

Given that restriction of naming only ten players, we have to dispense with the niceties. First, a word about PEDs. I expended many words about PEDs in last year's assessment, but the essence of my position has not changed: They were a part of the game during the time that these players were active. They are a part of baseball history, as much as segregation, the dead ball, the live ball, fifteen-inch mounds, amphetamines, the Reserve Clause, and free agency and collusion were and, in some cases, are. So, in my view, every player on the 2014 ballot, whether implicated with PED usage, suspected of PED usage, or free from PED usage, is qualified.

With that out of the way, let the slashing begin.

Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Paul Lo Duca, Ray Durham, Eric Gagné, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Hideo Nomo, Ritchie Sexson, J.T. Snow, and Mike Timlin: Congratulations, you made it onto the ballot, a ballot bursting with qualified candidates. In a normal year, some of you would merit mention: Sexson reached 300 home runs with 306. Casey was a lifetime .302 hitter in 5066 at-bats and 1531 hits. Gagné still holds the Major League record with 84 consecutive save conversions and is tied with John Smoltz for the most single-season saves in the National League with 55; unfortunately, his PEDs taint will hover over those accomplishments for some time to come. Durham was a good-hitting second baseman who stole 273 bases. Timlin was a fine bullpen warrior who will never get any Hall recognition because the Hall is not structured to recognize role players. Timlin was a middle reliever who also saved 141 games, and although Benitez, with 289 saves, and Todd Jones, with 319 saves, were primarily closers, they are hardly elite.

Nomo was a Rookie of the Year in 1995 and was the first high-profile Japanese player in Major League history, throwing a no-hitter in each league—one amazingly in Coors Field—but despite 1918 strikeouts in 1976.1 innings pitched, he also walked 908 batters and wound up a slightly below-league-average pitcher. Snow's most spectacular play was snagging Dusty Baker's three-year-old son Darren from harm's way at home plate while a play was still in progress during Game Five of the 2002 World Series. As if you couldn't have a bigger stage upon which to perform this feat. (As a San Francisco Giants fan I cringe at that fiasco almost as much as knowing that, in the next game, the Giants were five outs away from winning the World Series but went on to lose to the (then-)Anaheim Angels in seven games. And even if the Giants went on to win World Series in 2010 and 2012, while the Angels have yet to return to the Fall Classic, the memory still stings.)

Of the players on the ballot for the first time, left-hander Kenny Rogers scratched his way to 219 wins in 762 appearances and 474 starts, amounting to 3302.2 innings pitched and a 4.27 earned run average, although his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) ERA, which factors out the effects of a pitcher's fielders behind him, is 4.38, which indicates that those defenders had a hand in his success. Not that Rogers himself was not a fine defender, winning five Gold Gloves and amassing a career 50 defensive runs saved, an impressive feat for a pitcher. Rogers also pitched a perfect game in 1994. A fine career, but Rogers would get little more consideration even on a less-stacked ballot. It would be surprising to see him survive for the 2015 ballot.

Although he is part of a baseball family—his father Felipe was a player and manager—Moisés Alou may be best-known for venting his displeasure at Steve Bartman when that Chicago Cubs fan interfered with a foul ball Alou was chasing in Game Six of the 2003 National League Championship Series against the (then-)Florida Marlins. That incident prolonged the inning for the Marlins, who went on to win the game, the series, and eventually the World Series while the Cubs seemed to perpetuate the misfortunes that have kept them from winning a World Series since 1908. Alou was an excellent hitter throughout his career, compiling a .303/.369/.516 slash line with 2134 hits, 421 doubles, 332 home runs, 1109 runs scored, and 1287 RBI. His peripherals are also solid with a wOBA of .378, OPS+ of 127, and a wRC+ of 129. Although FanGraphs rates Alou more highly in WAR (48.2) than does Baseball Reference (39.7), he is still not in any serious discussion of Hall of Fame-worthy left fielders; Jay Jaffe's JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) rating places him 45th among left fielders.

Jaffe's JAWS rating is kinder to Luis Gonzalez, placing him 24th among left fielders, ahead of Hall of Famers Lou Brock, Chick Hafey (who is also behind Alou), Heinie Manush, and Jim Rice. "Gonzo" had a long career, averaging exactly one hit for each of the 2591 games he played, which included 596 doubles and 354 home runs along with 1412 runs and 1439 RBI. He hit 57 of those home runs in 2001, an outlier year for him as he never hit more than 31 in any other year; this raised questions about whether he had been juicing with steroids, but as I pointed out in last year's ballot evaluation, 2001 was an outlier year for home-run hitting even within the Steroids Era, with players regarded as clean having a career year in home runs alongside players assumed to be on the juice. Gonzalez's slash line of .283/.367/.479, with a wOBA of .364, is not exceptional, as borne out by his strong but non-elite peripherals of a 119 OPS+ and 118 wRC+. In another year, Gonzalez may have generated more discussion although he would in any year need to have shown more dominance (he led the league in hits in 1999 with 206, when he batted a sixth-best .336 across Major League Baseball, but otherwise he did not lead the league in any other major categories) or reached loftier career numbers. As it is, both he and Alou will have a difficult time getting five percent of the vote to stay alive for 2015.

Moisés Alou, Luis Gonzalez, and, with a generous assessment, Kenny Rogers approach the borderline of Hall of Fame legacy for the first—and perhaps the only—time. Borderline candidates from previous ballots include Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Jack Morris, and Lee Smith.

I've written about all four both for the 2012 ballot and for the 2013 ballot, so I'll summarize each briefly. Don Mattingly had an excellent career cut short by injuries, and he lacks either the career numbers or the obvious dominance to overcome that. He dropped 4.6 percentage points on last year's ballot, collecting 13.2 percent of the vote in his 13th year. Given past trends, he seems unlikely to pole-vault into the 75 percent range, and it is possible that he could drop off the ballot this year, one year shy of his final year of eligibility. Lee Smith is hovering around the 50 percent mark; he dropped slightly last year, losing 2.8 percent of the vote, as his years left for eligibility inexorably shrink. As one of the first contemporary closers, meaning the one-inning reliever with that inning typically the ninth, Smith has a case but it is not a convincing one as evidenced by his ballot performance.

Fred McGriff is truly a borderline case—he looks strong within his era, which overlapped the beginning of the Steroids Era, and his numbers are respectable in any era. But as a star he is outshone by superstars; he got 20.7 percent of the vote last year, a decrease of 3.2 percent from the previous year, and although he is going into his 5th year on the ballot this year, he looks to have to contend with many more superstars in the next several years. I go back and forth on McGriff with regularity, which may indicate that at the very least he is not an obvious Hall of Famer.

Jack Morris generates intense discussion that often boils down to the traditionalist versus the analysts. That debate could rage harder this year as this is Morris's final year on the ballot. He did garner 67.7 percent of the vote last year, a slight uptick of 1.1 percent, which put him half a percentage point behind top vote-getter Craig Biggio. Morris received a healthy boost in 2012, jumping 13.1 percent from the previous year's total of 53.5 percent to 66.6 percent. Despite his high-profile postseason heroics, Morris is just above league-average and would be equivalent to Catfish Hunter or Gus Wynn as a Hall of Fame pitcher. However, I think that Morris will be elected this year, pulling a Ralph Kiner by squeaking in on his final chance.

That takes care of half the ballot. The other half of the ballot, 18 players, merits serious Hall of Fame discussion. Ah, but here is the problem: Eighteen candidates, only ten slots. Who to vote for this year—and who can be deferred?

Worthy, Yes, but Not This Year

When it comes to whether a candidate belongs in the Hall of Fame—any Hall of Fame—I adopt a simplistic, binary attitude: Either a candidate is a Hall of Famer or is not. I do not subscribe to the kind of relativism that states, "Yes, Candidate A should be in the Hall of Fame—but Candidate B deserves to go in first." Now, in evaluating any candidate, comparison is impossible to avoid. It is integral to the process to evaluate the candidate against others with qualifications of a similar magnitude.

That is not to say that there are not differences between players who do qualify for the Hall of Fame—in other words, not all Hall of Fame players are alike. Those at the top of the leader boards are in the elite, the "inner circle," with those outside that circle occupying various strata until we reach the borderline. Another way to look at this is with the term "first-ballot Hall of Famer," indicating that the player would, or should, be elected in his first year of eligibility—in other words, his qualifications are so apparent that a majority great enough to elect him on his first year on the ballot will do so.

However, the combination of the logjam of qualified candidates and the ongoing backlash against players who used, or are suspected of using, performance-enhancing drugs has prompted a bit of a rethink. Eighteen candidates, ten slots. Who can I defer to an upcoming ballot?

All 18 of these players, the eight whom I'm deferring and the ten whom I would vote for, I have evaluated in detail in previous articles, so I will only touch on the highlights for each.

18. Sammy Sosa (second year on ballot)

No matter how he did it, right fielder Sammy Sosa did hit 609 home runs. That is eighth all-time; he is one of only eight men ever to hit 600 or more home runs in his career; and he is the only man to hit at least 60 round-trippers in three different seasons. Ironically, as I noted last year, he never led the league in home runs in those three seasons, getting bested by Mark McGwire twice (in 1998 and 1999) and Barry Bonds once (in 2001), although he did lead the league in long flies in two other years. He also piled up 1667 RBI while having nine consecutive years with at least 100 RBI. Sosa was also the National League Most Valuable Player in 1998, the same year McGwire set the record for homers in a single season with 70. Whether those 609 dingers were cheap, whether they were done wholly or in part with cheating, we may never know. But there is no guarantee that Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera will get to 600 home runs, leaving Sammy Sosa in some rarefied company indeed.

17. Mark McGwire (eighth year on ballot)

There is no doubt that first baseman Mark McGwire was a Three True Outcomes hitter: He struck out (1596 tines in his career), walked (1317, with only 150 of those intentional), or hit a home run (583 career homers). McGwire is the career leader in hitting a home run in the fewest turns at bat with one home run every 10.61 at-bats, more than a full at-bat less than Babe Ruth (11.76). A lifetime .263 hitter, McGwire's on-base percentage shoots up to .394 with all those walks while he slugged at a .588 clip, both of which account for his outstanding OPS+ of 163 and wOBA of .415 while his wRC+ of 157 is similarly impressive. As I wrote last year, the biggest knock against McGwire, apart from the PEDs issue, is that he was a one-dimensional player—but what a dimension he had. On an aesthetic level, the scale of his home runs was truly Ruthian. In terms of baseball mythology—the good, the bad, and the ugly—Mark McGwire's career was made for the Hall of Fame—and his numbers back that up.

16. Rafael Palmeiro (fourth year on ballot)

In last year's assessment of first baseman Rafael Palmeiro, I concluded that he really wasn't a truly standout player in the sense that he did not have a dominant streak or even one dominant season; he led the league in hits, doubles, and runs once each and in different years; his best showing for Most Valuable Player was sixth (in 1996); and he was selected to only four All-Star squads. In fact, his greatest notoriety is angrily denying to Congress in 2005 that he ever used performance-enhancing drugs—only to fail a drug test months later. Well, he did manage to amass 3020 hits and 569 home runs, although in doing so he seems more like Eddie Murray than Hank Aaron or Willie Mays, the only other three hitters ever to do so. But his slash line is better than Murray's—.288/.371/.515—and in 2831 games and 12,045 plate appearances Rafael Palmeiro compiled enough statistics so that people in the future will wonder, why isn't this guy in the Hall of Fame yet?

15. Jeff Kent (first year on ballot)

On an overstuffed ballot, second baseman Jeff Kent can be very easily overlooked, even to the point that he might not collect the five percent of the vote to keep him on the ballot in 2015. But nearly two and a half years ago, I had Kent pegged as a Hall of Famer, albeit a "tough-sell" Hall of Famer as the ballot was crowded then and has only become more so now. Offensively, Kent is one of the best-hitting second basemen of all time, if not another Rogers Hornsby—what other second baseman could match the Rajah?—then certainly in the discussion with Bobby Doerr, Frankie Frisch, Charlie Gehringer, Joe Gordon, Joe Morgan, and Ryne Sandberg. Kent didn't have the speed of the last two, and defensively he was no Robbie Alomar or Frisch or Gehringer, but he was a league-average defensive middle infielder who could hit in the middle of the order. In Hall of Fame strata Jeff Kent is closer to the borderline than to the elite, but he does make it past the threshold—and being the lifetime leader in home runs hit by a second baseman with 351 doesn't hurt, either.

14. Mike Mussina (first year on ballot)

Another one I identified as a "tough-sell" Hall of Famer in 2011, pitcher Mike Mussina is closer to Bert Blyleven than to Greg Maddux in terms of appreciating his effectiveness. Yes, Moose's ERA is high, 3.68, but his FIP of 3.57 suggests that he has done a lot of the heavy lifting himself, as demonstrated by his career total of 2813 strikeouts in 3562.2 innings pitched, yielding a strikeouts-per-nine-innings-pitched (K/9) of 7.1, and a career walk total of only 785, producing an outstanding strikeouts-to-walks (K/BB) ratio of 3.58—better than any pitcher on the ballot not named Curt Schilling. Furthermore, Mussina pitched his entire career in an offensive-rich era and in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball—and although he spent several years with the New York Yankees, he spent more with the Baltimore Orioles having to face those Yankees. With Roger Clemens, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and Curt Schilling on the ballot, Mike Mussina will not leapfrog over all of those pitchers, but he deserves to be in their Cooperstown company.

13. Edgar Martinez (fifth year on ballot)

Perhaps the most fascinating question concerning designated hitter and third baseman Edgar Martinez this year is whether Frank Thomas's presence on the ballot will help or hurt Martinez. Thomas was a first baseman who played a lot of DH, and because Thomas was a much better hitter than fielder, discussion could turn—again—on whether the DH is even a legitimate position, or, given that Thomas's batting record is stronger than Martinez's, whether Thomas is the better candidate. None of which diminishes the fact that Martinez has established a Hall of Fame-caliber batting record, as I have argued in 2012 and again last year. With a classic 3-4-5 slash line (.312/.418/.515), 2247 hits including an impressive 514 doubles along with 309 home runs, 1219 runs and 1261 RBI, Martinez posted a 147 OPS+, a 147 wRC+, and a .405 wOBA. I think Edgar Martinez will be overlooked again this year, but his time will come.

12. Tom Glavine (first year on ballot)

Admittedly, I had pitcher Tom Glavine pegged as a "no-brainer" Hall of Famer, but given that the logjam of players on the ballot is bigger than I had imagined in 2011, I would defer voting for Glavine for another year. His 305 career wins along with his .600 career winning percentage offers a lot to the traditionalist, and it will be a long time before anyone approaches 300 wins again. Glavine's 3.54 ERA is acceptable for the offense-rich era in which he pitched (and it is slightly lower than Mike Mussina's), but his FIP of 3.95 suggests that the crafty lefthander got a good deal of help from his fielders. His peripherals bear this out: ERA+ of 118, ERA- of 86, FIP- of 94, while Glavine's 1500 walks and 2607 strikeouts in a hefty 4413.1 innings pitched yield a K/9 ratio of 5.3 and a K/BB of 1.74 to go with his 1.314 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Glavine was very good for a long time, netting two Cy Young awards and a World Series Most Valuable Player award, but he is in distinguished company in his first year on the ballot and lacks the dominance to jump to the front of the line, or even to the first ten places in line.

11. Frank Thomas (first year on ballot)

I go back and forth on Frank Thomas, but only on whether I would list him on my ballot in his first year amidst the logjam. In 2011, I already had him listed as one of my five "tough sells," but in looking at how he stacks up against the other hitters on this year's ballot, I damn near bumped him into the top ten; as it is now, he's still knocking on the door, ahead of five other hitters. Yes, he was atrocious at first base—his defensive WAR is a whopping minus 23.4—but his bat more than made up for it. Another hitter with a classic 3-4-5 slash line (.301/.419/.555), Thomas amassed close to 2500 hits (2468) with just under 500 doubles (495) and 521 home runs—tied, poetically enough, with Hall of Famers Willie McCovey and Ted Williams—while scoring 1494 runs, driving in 1704 (22nd all-time), and walking 1667 times (10th all-time). Thomas's peripherals bear this out: 156 OPS+, 154 wRC+, and .416 wOBA. And unless Frank Thomas had chutzpah like you wouldn't believe, he not only denounced PEDs, he openly advocated testing for them (he was the only active player willing to be named in the Mitchell Report, stating precisely those views). Both clean and mean, Frank Thomas is a Hall of Fame hitter.

Ten for the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Given the already-overloaded ballot that only got heavier with five legitimate Hall of Fame candidates added this year, which meant that candidates whom I had identified as Hall of Fame candidates in previous years could get edged back depending on their degree of excellence, I approached selection of the ten I would vote for using the old "FIFO" method I learned about way back in accounting class: In inventory terms, "FIFO" stands for "first in, first out," so if a player had been a top-ten pick on one of my previous ballots, he remained so. In other words, none of the first-time candidates made it onto this top-ten ballot—with one exception, which we will see soon enough.

10. Alan Trammell (thirteenth year on ballot)

Are there players whose votes I've deferred who could—and maybe should—be ahead of Alan Trammell? You bet—Tom Glavine and Frank Thomas are two obvious ones. But this is not a normal ballot. It is overstuffed. I maintained that the shortstop was a Hall of Famer last year, and nothing has dissuaded me since then. Most importantly, Alan Trammell is nearing the end of his eligibility, and the ballot does not promise to be any easier next year, or the year after, which will be Trammell's last chance. Frankly, the odds do not look good: Last year, Trammell polled 33.6 percent of the vote, losing 3.2 percent of the vote from 2012. Realistically, Trammell will most likely not be voted in by the BBWAA, and he will have to hope that a future Expansion Era committee remembers him (along with his keystone mate Lou Whitaker, but that is another story). Trammell, though, was in some ways the prototype of the "super-shortstop," excellent both offensively and defensively, even if he didn't post numbers like Cal Ripken, Jr., or Derek Jeter. Positional scarcity is the biggest factor in Alan Trammell's favor, and that earns my vote.

9. Larry Walker (fourth year on ballot)

Boy, am I getting sick of talking about Larry Walker for the Hall of Fame. I discussed the five-tool right fielder in my very first column in 2011, and of course his credentials received attention in 2012 and exhaustively last year, when I tried to put the bias against Walker based on his playing in Denver's Coors Field into perspective. As an example of that, in his 1997 MVP year, Walker posted a .346/.443/.733 slash line on the road while hitting 29 of his 49 home runs in other ballparks; despite hitting 30 of his 46 doubles and all four of his triples in Coors, he actually slugged better on the road. In 1997, Walker swung a hot bat anywhere he played, not just in Denver. And his total games at Coors Field account for roughly 30 percent of his total career games. Walker is another classic 3-4-5 slash-line hitter (.313/.400/.565) who collected 2160 hits, 471 doubles, 383 home runs, 1355 runs, and 1311 RBI. His peripherals include a 141 OPS+, a 140 wRC+, and a .412 wOBA. A strong-armed right fielder who also stole 230 bases, Larry Walker is a Hall of Famer.

8. Mike Piazza (second year on ballot)

Despite his admission to having taken androstenedione ("andro") early in his career, Mike Piazza still collected 57.8 percent of the vote, the fourth-highest total, on last year's ballot. That is an encouraging sign for the best-hitting catchers in baseball history, a lifetime .308 hitter (.313 as a catcher) with 427 home runs (396 as a catcher, the career leader for the position). Last year, I asked whether Hall voters would consider Piazza to be a Cinderella, alluding to his unlikely journey to the Major Leagues (he was drafted in the 62nd round in 1988 essentially as a favor to family friend Tommy Lasorda), or a wicked stepsister, given the presumption of Piazza's involvement with PEDs in some capacity. (I also had Piazza as one of the five "tough sells" based on the crowded ballot.) One year on the ballot does not indicate a trend. The questions this year are, was last year's showing the initial burst of support that will begin to decline? Or is it an indication that support will grow? As a defensive catcher, Piazza was a tremendous hitter (although his defensive WAR of 1.0 is respectable), and with peripherals such as a 147 OPS+, a 140 wRC+, and a .390 wOBA, Mike Piazza is a Hall of Fame hitter.

7. Craig Biggio (second year on ballot)

You would think that since just 28 men in the history of the sport have collected as many as 3000 hits, that accomplishment would be worthy of getting a player elected in his first year of eligibility. (Unless your name is Pete Rose, the all-time hit king, who agreed to be marked as ineligible for his gambling allegations, or Rafael Palmeiro, who is being blackballed for his PEDs usage.) Actually, Eddie Collins, Nap Lajoie, Tris Speaker, and Paul Waner all had to wait at least a year before being voted into the Hall. Craig Biggio has to wait at least a year as he was not elected last year, but the second baseman (and catcher and center fielder) did receive the highest number of votes with 388, representing 68.2 percent of the total vote. As with Mike Piazza (and any player with only one year on the ballot), it is impossible to detect a trend based on one data point. But let's venture a guess and say that Biggio will be elected to the Hall of Fame sometime in the near future. Considering that the only two players other than Craig Biggio to have combined more than 3000 hits, more than 600 doubles, more than 400 stolen bases, and more than 1800 runs scored in their careers are Ty Cobb and Tris Speaker, I'd say that he is in some pretty good company.

6. Tim Raines (seventh year on ballot)

File Tim Raines under the Sabermetric Darling category along with Alan Trammell. As I related last year, I had Tim Raines pegged as a Hall of Famer in 2002, just as he was retiring. Granted, I didn't think even then that he would be an obvious choice although it was pretty obvious to me that he was the poor man's Rickey Henderson; I plugged for Raines in my very first column and for the 2012 ballot. Along with Larry Walker, I have been singing this refrain for some time now. Raines is fifth in lifetime stolen bases with 808, and he ranks 13th in stolen base percentage with an 84.7 percent success rate. But Raines was hardly one-dimensional. In 2502 games played, he banged out 2605 hits including 430 doubles and 170 home runs while adding 1330 walks, giving him a slash line of .294/.385/.425 as he scored 1571 runs and drove in 980.

Here are Tim Raines's qualitative statistics compared to Rickey Henderson's:

	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+	wOBA	wRC+
Rickey Henderson	.279	.401	.419	.820	127	.372	132
Tim Raines	.294	.385	.425	.810	123	.361	125

Henderson is the lifetime leader in runs scored and stolen bases (and times caught stealing), and in 500 more games than Raines he did reach 3055 hits including 510 doubles and 297 home runs while collecting 2190 walks. Henderson was a first-ballot Hall of Famer. The good news is that apart from a slight dip on his second year on the ballot, in 2009 (coincidentally the same year in which Henderson was elected), Tim Raines has had an upward trend to the point that he polled 52.2 percent of the vote last year, an uptick of 4.5 percent and the biggest increase of any player on a packed, contentious ballot. He still has a big gap to overcome, but he deserves to make it.

5. Curt Schilling (second year on ballot)

Curt Schilling is the kind of pitcher Jack Morris's proponents want Morris to be—the big-game pitcher whose regular-season record supports handing the ball to him in crucial postseason games. Sure, Morris won 38 more regular-season games, in 91 more starts, than did Schilling. Come the postseason, Morris has the 1984 World Series with the Tigers and of course Game Seven of the 1991 Series with the Twins. Schilling has the 2001 World Series with the Diamondbacks and of course the bloody sock in the 2004 American League Championship Series with the Red Sox. Schilling is the last of my "tough sells" from 2011, and last year I emphasized how he managed to be overshadowed by some high-powered company (Randy Johnson, Johan Santana) even as he held his own in that company. Schilling's ERA is 3.46 while his FIP is 3.23, and a big part of his own heavy lifting comes from being one of only 16 pitchers with at least 3000 strikeouts (Schilling's 3116 ranks 15th), but combined with his stingy 711 bases on balls, he owns a tremendous K/BB ratio of 4.38, the best mark since the beginning of the 20th century. Tom Glavine and perhaps Mike Mussina could squeeze past Schilling, but Curt Schilling is every bit as much a Hall of Fame pitcher.

4. Jeff Bagwell (fourth year on ballot)

On the one hand, first baseman Jeff Bagwell has had a positive trend on the three ballots he has already been on, starting with 41.7 percent of the vote in 2011, shooting up to 56.0 percent in 2012, and moving up to 59.6 percent last year, the third-highest showing on a packed, contentious ballot. On the other hand, Bagwell has not reached the 75 percent necessary to get into the Hall of Fame in three whole tries. What is the delay? Wait—what is that whispering? He took PEDs? Where is the evidence? Last year, I noted how if Bagwell did use PEDs, he must have been the smartest player to do so because he never hit an eye-popping number of home runs in a season, certainly not in the Astrodome and not even when he and the Houston Astros moved into the bandbox first called Enron Field and then Minute Maid Park. His decline corresponds with the normal decline of any player not using performance-enhancing drugs. In fact, the biggest knocks against Bagwell are that he never led the league in home runs and that he didn't reach 500 home runs in his career, falling 51 shy of that. Compared to his other offensive exploits, including being the only first baseman to hit at least 400 home runs and steal at least 200 bases, Jeff Bagwell has otherwise proved his worthiness for the Hall of Fame, as I have explained in my very first column and for the 2012 vote.

3. Roger Clemens (second year on ballot)

Roger Clemens was awarded the Cy Young, which recognizes the league's top pitcher in a season, seven times, more than any other pitcher. He should have won it in 1990, when he was the runner-up to Bob Welch, and possibly in 1992 and 2005, when he came in third each time. He won four of those Cy Youngs from 1997 on, when he was very probably already using PEDs, but three of those awards are from before 1992, when he was regarded as being "clean." I'm not making Clemens's Hall of Fame case based solely on Cy Young awards, but as I noted last year, the same body that votes for Cy Young award winners and Most Valuable Player award winners, the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA), is also the same body that votes for Hall of Fame candidates. Last year the collective vote by the BBWAA for Clemens, who I explained last year was a Hall of Fame pitcher even before PEDs, was 37.6 percent of the vote. Was last year simply the punishment year? Or will Roger Clemens continue to be denied? Perhaps the BBWAA had grown a collective conscience between Clemens's final Cy Young in 2004—by which time PEDs accusations about many players were rampant—and Clemens's first appearance on the ballot in 2013, but how could this body, the BBWAA, decide that Clemens was the best pitcher in at least two years in which he was suspected of using PEDs, but then not vote Clemens, whose pitching record is among the greatest in baseball history, into the Hall of Fame? What about this year?

2. Barry Bonds (second year on ballot)

Barry Bonds is on the flipside of the same coin as Roger Clemens. The left fielder has won an unprecedented seven Most Valuable Player awards, four of them consecutively from 2001 to 2004, when Bonds was suspected of using PEDs. Bonds should have won another MVP in 1991, when he was runner-up to Terry Pendleton, and possibly in 2000, when he was runner-up to Giants teammate Jeff Kent. Again, the BBWAA is the voting body for MVP awards, as it is for Cy Young awards, and for that body to have endorsed Bonds for MVPs and then to provide him with 36.2 percent of the vote on last year's ballot is an about-face comparable to Clemens's experience. Given the magnitude of Bonds's accomplishments, though, coupled with his equally stellar propensity to be disliked, will Bonds experience a vendetta throughout his time on the ballot? And do we need to enumerate Bonds's accomplishments? Yes, he is the all-time home run king, the all-time walk king, the all-time intentional walk king, with more than twice as many intentional passes, 688, than the next man on the list, Hank Aaron (297). In a 1998 game against the Diamondbacks, Bonds was walked intentionally with the bases loaded as Arizona manager Buck Showalter decided that Bonds's driving in one run on a walk was less costly than having him hit the ball. For Barry Bonds not to be in the Hall of Fame is an indictment of baseball in ways that I detailed last year.

1. Greg Maddux (first year on ballot)

When I listed Greg Maddux as the first of the no-brainer Hall of Fame choices, I may not have been as effusive as I should have been. On the other hand, if I let that go unchecked, I will lapse into blathering fandom. Quite simply, Greg Maddux is a great pitcher—one of the greatest to have ever played the game. His counting numbers look like those of a dead-ball era hurler: 355 wins (8th all-time), including an unprecedented streak of 17 consecutive seasons with 15 or more wins; 740 games started (4th all-time); and 5008 innings pitched (13th all-time)—all remarkable accomplishments in our modern era. Maddux ranks 10th in lifetime strikeouts with 3371, doubly impressive because Maddux was never a power pitcher but pitched by guile and location, which earned him the nickname "The Professor" for his cerebral approach to pitching. If his complete-game and shutout totals are those of a modern-era pitcher—his 109 complete games are 355th while his 35 shutouts are 71st—they are still exceptional for a contemporary pitcher. Greg Maddux is the bellwether for the 2014 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot: He has absolutely no PEDs taint, and he is—in any year, among any company—a genuine first-ballot Hall of Famer. Jay Jaffe's JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score System) has Maddux ranked 10th all-time among starting pitchers. If Maddux does not get elected to the Hall on this year's ballot, we may indeed wonder whether Hall of Fame voting has become problematic. Besides, in 2011 I made this breezy prediction: "In 2014, Greg Maddux will waltz into Cooperstown in his first year of eligibility. You can take that to the bank." That is a bank that is too big to fail.

"If It Ain't Broke"—Or Is It Broke?

As I have outlined, there are enough qualified candidates for the Baseball Hall of Fame in 2014 to populate a voting ballot that allows a maximum of ten candidates nearly twice over. Last year, I identified 14 candidates qualified for the Hall (all except Kenny Lofton collected at least five percent of the vote to stay on this year's ballot), and of course not one received enough votes to enter the Hall. That was the first time since 1996 that the BBWAA was unable to cast enough votes for a candidate to elect him to the Hall of Fame.

Was last year simply an aberration? The confluence of many qualified candidates and the opprobrium concerning players known to have used, or suspected of having used, performance-enhancing drugs that came to a head with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens, the two biggest high-profile PEDs players, on the ballot for the first time? Or will both conditions, many qualified candidates and PEDs-associated players, continue to affect Hall of Fame voting?

If the issue is PEDs, then the voters will continue to exercise their sanction based on their attitude toward the issue. The PEDs issue is undoubtedly a heated one, with questions pertaining to the degree of cheating—if that is how PEDs usage is regarded—and its very morality sparking intense debate that has already made itself known through the unencouraging vote totals for players marked by PEDs. The larger question is whether, to use the cliché, a few bad apples will spoil the whole barrel, and whether any player who played during the Steroids Era regardless of suspicion will be able to be elected. You may not be able to legislate morality, but voters can exercise it with their voting patterns, and this could be an unresolvable issue for some time to come.

If, however, the issue is the abundance of qualified candidates—which will only continue as the next few years will bring even more potential Hall of Famers—then there are some remedies. Increase the number of votes that can be cast. Introduce a weighted voting system. Introduce a run-off system in which the top vote-getters are placed on a second ballot and voted on again. Restrict the number of overall candidates on a ballot. Decrease the percentage required for induction.

I do not think that any of those remedies, and any others not listed above, are necessary. Call me a Pollyanna, but I think last year's vote was simply an aberration. Not that the current system is perfect, but in the earliest days, when Hall of Fame voting began in 1936, those ballots were much larger, with three-plus decades' worth of talent to choose from. Since then, the voters have had years in which no candidates were elected even though those ballots did contain many eventual Hall of Fame players.

Last year's storm has passed. This year's ballot brings five marquee names with no PEDs associations, increasing the number of candidates whom voters can consider to be "clean." Although I do not expect to see a lot of players receive the necessary minimum of 75 percent to be elected (the single largest number of players voted into the Hall in any given year was five, in the inaugural year of 1936), and predictions are usually a fool's errand, here are mine regardless:

1. Greg Maddux (95 percent)

2. Craig Biggio (81 percent)

3. Jack Morris (76 percent)

Let's see what the results are in January.