Triaging the Returnees
With no competition from the freshman class, the 15 returning candidates can expect a fuller health assessment of their Cooperstown chances, for better or for worse.
Full Recovery Expected
Having garnered 70.3 percent of the vote last year, Carlos Beltrán, barring a just-teasing giggle from fickle voters (or a Curt Schilling-like temper tantrum if he doesn't make it this year), looks poised to make an induction speech in Cooperstown in July 2026, his penance for his role as the enforcer in the 2017 Houston Astros' sign-stealing scandal served in full.
Is this the year Carlos Beltran gets his ticket to Cooperstown punched? Is his role in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal finally in the rear-view mirror? Stay tuned.
With 70.0 career WAR and 57.2 JAWS, Beltrán is ranked ninth among center fielders; of the top ten center fielders eligible for the Hall, the only other one not inducted is Kenny Lofton. (Hint to the VC's 2029 ballot for Contemporary Baseball Era players.)
Must Continue Therapy
The road to the Hall has been bumpy for Andruw Jones, whose first two years on the ballot found him stuck in the mud until he broke free with 19.4 percent in 2020; by 2023, he was approaching the outskirts of Cooperstown with 58.1 percent—only to start running out of gas.
Last year, Jones got to 66.2 percent on his eighth ballot, and he does have one more shot at baseball immortality if he can't push over the threshold this year. However, he would need to glimpse the Welcome to Cooperstown sign (read: at least 70 percent) to breathe a little easier—but baseball is a game of inches, and there is no guarantee Jones will push past that sign in his final year if he can't quite do so this year.
Will Andruw Jones catch on with enough voters on his ninth ballot? Or will he stumble short of Hall of Fame glory? His journey has been full of stops and starts.
With 62.7 career WAR, Andruw Jones is ranked 11th among center fielders with 54.6 JAWS, and he joins Beltrán, Jim Edmonds, and Kenny Lofton as the only center fielders among the top 15 eligible for the Hall who are not yet in.
Chronic Disabilities
Of the top 25 right fielders ranked by JAWS, Bobby Abreu (60.2 WAR, 50.9 JAWS) ranks 22nd and is one of seven right fielders in that group eligible for the Hall who hasn't been elected yet; in fact, he seems to be the Dwight Evans of his generation. Debuting with 5.5 percent in 2020, Abreu has worked his way up to just under 20 percent, but with just four more shots at the Hall, he needs a sustained charm offensive to nearly triple his existing support. Reliable but anonymous, the two-time All-Star whose best showing for Most Valuable Player was 12th place seems destined to languish before exiting the ballot.
The good news for Andy Pettitte is that he more than doubled his support last year to 27.9 percent. The bad news is that the southpaw with more World Series rings (5) than All-Star appearances (3), let alone Cy Young Awards (0), is in his eighth year. With 47.2 S-JAWS, Pettitte ranks 82nd among starting pitchers and is actually ahead of New York Yankees Hall of Famer Whitey Ford (ranked 87th). CC Sabathia's first-ballot election last year might prove a boon to Pettitte since their records are very similar, although this year's vote will prove crucial in testing that supposition.
Three places ahead of Pettitte with 47.4 S-JAWS, Mark Buehrle has broached the ten-percent threshold three times in his five BBWAA ballot appearances, but for the left-handed innings-eater sporting 14 consecutive seasons with 200 or more innings pitched in a 16-year career, he lacks the marquee presence that would make him attractive to enough voters to punch his ticket to Cooperstown—and with that clock ticking louder as departure time approaches, Buehrle is likely to miss that train.
Starting to feel that same squeeze, Jimmy Rollins has seen his support double from his 2022 debut of 9.4 percent to 18.0 percent last year, but the switch-hitting shortstop who won the National League's Most Valuable Player Award in 2007, when he joined the 30-30 Club and hit at least 20 doubles, triples, and home runs, will need voters to start deciding whether to fish or cut bait regarding his candidacy. For the three-time All-Star with his 30.3 JAWS ranking him 34th among shortstops, one place ahead of undistinguished Travis Jackson, Jimmy Rollins will likely see that bait sinking to the bottom.
Preliminary Signs Inconclusive
On his fourth ballot, Francisco Rodríguez's performance is hard to gauge because he is a relief pitcher, and there have only been nine elected to the Hall. His trajectory (or lack thereof) is similar to Billy Wagner's, who was in stasis his first three years before he started to accrue the support that eventually pushed him over threshold and into the Hall last year. Ranked 14th by his R-JAWS of 21.1, Rodríguez notched 15 more saves than Wagner's 422, and he still holds the single-season saves record with 62. His chance at Cooperstown depends on an improved performance on this ballot.
With just two ballot appearances, Chase Utley and David Wright have a more meager sample size, although their preliminary results, still inconclusive, already show differences. Utley debuted in 2024 with 28.8 percent, nearly five times greater than Wright's 6.2 percent, and last year Utley jumped to 39.8 percent, still nearly five times greater than Wright's 8.1 percent.
With 56.9 JAWS, Utley ranks 12th among second baseman; of the top 15 eligible for the Hall, only Utley, who was a six-time All-Star in his 16-year career, Bobby Grich, and Lou Whitaker have not been elected yet. Beset by injuries, notably spinal stenosis, Wright had to halt his career after 14 seasons although the last three seasons in which he actually played were negligible. His 44.3 JAWS ranks him 27th among third basemen, two spots below Jimmy Collins and ten below Dick Allen, inducted last year.
Utley's prognosis seems much more promising than Wright's, but an actual trend at this point remains inconclusive.
Under Observation: Too Soon to Diagnose
Felix Hernández (20.6 percent) and Dustin Pedroia (11.9 percent) are the only two newbies from the 2025 ballot to advance to this year's ballot. Both exceeded the five-percent threshold, with Hernández's showing more encouraging, but one data point does not a trend make, so we watch to see how they do this year.
In the Intensive Care Unit
Like Andruw Jones, Omar Vizquel is also in his ninth year, although his prognosis is grimmer than Jones's. A poor man's Ozzie Smith, Vizquel remains a borderline Hall of Famer who debuted in 2018 with 37.0 percent and cracked the 50-percent mark (52.6) in 2020. Then in 2021 he stumbled before he hit free-fall, dropping to 23.9 percent in 2022 and has been under 20 percent on the last three ballots.
Allegations of domestic violence by Vizquel's ex-wife in 2020, followed by accusations of sexual harassment by a minor-league batboy the next year, are cited as the reasons for voters' plummeting support for Vizquel. With 45.6 career WAR, Omar Vizquel is ranked 47th among shortstops with 36.2 JAWS. Even without any external complications, he is no lock for the Hall. Whether post-playing-career entanglements are, or should be, grounds for blackballing Vizquel from the Hall (as they were for Curt Schilling) is a thorny issue for another time; the reality is that his showing on this ballot will most likely move him to the next prognosis.
On Life Support
Now at the midpoint of his ballot tenure, Alex Rodríguez, whose Hall of Fame support has thus far stayed consistently in the mid-30-percent range, seems to have made peace with his fate although the shortstop-turned-third baseman will be kept alive until the white light appears. As MLB's most egregious PED Penitent, A-Rod being elected to the Hall would be like a twice-impeached convicted felon and adjudicated sexual predator being elected president of the United—well, the Hall has a higher threshold for election, anyway, and at this point it might have more integrity, even if it does need a ballroom bigger than itself.
Also at the midpoint is Torii Hunter, who is the only returnee to have lost ground last year, and if 2.2 percent seems marginal, the slugging center fielder with nine Gold Gloves has yet to crack ten percent in five years on the ballot; he barely stayed alive with 5.1 percent of the vote in 2025. Hunter bounced back from 5.3 percent in 2022, impressive given that his career 50.6 WAR and 40.7 JAWS puts him 35th among center fielders. This time he might not recover.
Pull the Plug
As the first superstar to run afoul of MLB's 2006 Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment program, Manny Ramirez was dead from the start—and he knew it. He retired immediately in April 2009, and despite attempts to return to MLB, he never played in the Show again. In his nine years on the ballot, Ramirez maintained a faint but steady pulse, 23.8 percent in his 2017 debut to a high of 33.4 percent last year, but needing a miracle to more than double his support, Manny will cease to be Manny as he dies an unnoticed and unlamented death. Bury him next to Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, and Sammy Sosa.
Adios, Manny Ramirez. It's been a rough ride. To tell from his expression, the PED-tainted slugger knows he didn't even reach the warning track with his Hall of Fame chances.
Diagnosing the Newbies
Although the last two BBWAA ballots have seen four newly eligible candidates each poll enough votes over the five-percent minimum, with two each elected to the Hall on their first try, only two first-timers on this ballot merit any serious consideration—and one of them is unlikely to gain any traction.
Outside Chance: Cole Hamels
With 59.0 WAR (57.9 of that from pitching) and 48.2 S-JAWS that ranks him 72nd among starting pitchers, Hamels is the most promising of the first-time candidates. The left-hander displayed consistency and durability in his 15-year career with ten years with 30 or more starts and eight years with 200 or more innings pitched. Spending his first ten years with the Philadelphia Phillies, he won a World Series with them in 2008 and in 2010 he pitched a shutout in the National League Division Series. He struck out 2560 against only 767 bases on balls for a sterling 3.34 strikeouts-to-walks ratio, and he hurled a no-hitter in 2015.
The most promising prospect on this year's ballot, Cole Hamels awaits his first delivery of votes from the writers. Was his cereer impressive enough for the Hall of Fame?
Is Cole Hamels a Hall of Famer? The four-time All-Star had just one top-five Cy Young Award finish and he never led the league in any significant category; his gray ink (top-ten finishes) score is 138 against the average pitcher Hall of Famer's 185. The southpaw seems poised to accept the baton from Mark Buehrle for unsung starters who occupy the lower reaches of the BBWAA ballot until their time runs out.
Slim Chance
With player values ranging between 30 and 40 WAR, a few of these half-dozen candidates may survive their inaugural ballot and make it to 2027, but none are serious candidates for the Hall.
Shin-Soo Choo. The first South Korean candidate on a Hall of Fame ballot, Choo is the most significant of the 15 South Korean position players, past or present, to have played Major League Baseball so far. In his first two full seasons with the Cleveland Indians starting in 2009, the left-handed right fielder posted nearly identical numbers including at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases and a .300 batting average each year. He would have six more seasons playing at least 140 games as he finished the last seven years of his 15-year career with the Texas Rangers.
Edwin Encarnacion. A right-handed power hitter who slammed 424 home runs and drove in 1261 runs in his 16-year career, half of which was spent with the Toronto Blue Jays, Encarnacion had six years with 100 or more RBI, pacing the American League in that category in 2016 with 127, and eight consecutive years with 30 or more homers. The three-time All-Star began as a third baseman before splitting his time between playing first base and serving as the designated hitter, a pure slugger from the Dave Kingman (one ballot appearance) and Adam Dunn (ditto) mold.
Alex Gordon. Starting his 14-year career, all with the Kansas City Royals, at third base, Gordon moved to left field in his fifth season in 2011, where he won the first of eight Gold Gloves; his career 7.1 dWAR, 119 Total Zone total fielding runs above average, and 116 defensive runs saved attest to his defensive play. The left-hander also had some pop, leading the Majors in doubles with 51 in 2012 as he had six years with 30 or more. The three-time All-Star was part of the Royals' 2015 World Series-winning squad.
Howie Kendrick. A good-hitting second baseman, Kendrick compiled 1747 hits including 354 doubles in 6421 plate appearances for a .294 batting average during a 15-year career that began with nine seasons for the Los Angeles Angels. Finishing his career with Washington, the right-hander was instrumental to the Nationals' first World Series victory in 2019, being named the Most Valuable Player in the National League Championship Series before hitting the go-ahead home run in Game Seven of the World Series against the Houston Astros.
Nick Markakis. Spending his first nine years with the Baltimore Orioles, Markakis was stealthy-good both offensively and defensively throughout his 15-year career. The left-hander had nine years with 30 or more doubles, five with 40 or more, smacking 514 overall, as he compiled 2388 hits including 11 seasons with 150 or more. In the field, he owns the career record for fielding percentage by a right fielder with .994, and he had held the record of 398 games without committing an error until passed by Robbie Grossman. Late in his career, Markakis made his only All-Star squad with the Atlanta Braves as he won his third Gold Glove and only Silver Slugger Award.
Hunter Pence. With the Houston Astros in 2007, Pence placed third in NL Rookie of the Year voting after Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki. The right-hander arrived in San Francisco in 2012 just in time to help the Giants win their second of three World Series in a five-year span. With the Giants facing elimination, the right fielder's impassioned speech before Game Three of the NL Division Series against the Cincinnati Reds inspired their comeback. In the seven-game 2014 World Series against the Kansas City Royals, the right-hander hit .444 with one home run and five RBI. Pence was also named to four All-Star teams.
No Chance
Most of these candidates with a career WAR below 30 had at least one marquee moment, such as a major award, and sustained careers that lands them on a BBWAA ballot for one appearance.
Gio Gonzalez. Leading the Majors in wins with 21 in 2012 earned Gonzalez the Warren Spahn Award for MLB's best left-handed pitcher as he finished third in NL Cy Young voting. The southpaw spent seven years with the Washington Nationals as he had eight seasons of 30 or more starts and three seasons with at least 200 innings pitched during his 13-year career.
Matt Kemp. Spending the first ten years of his 15-year career with the Dodgers, Kemp was aced out of the NL Most Valuable Player Award by Ryan Braun in 2011 even though he led the NL with 39 home runs and 115 runs scored and the Majors with 126 runs batted in. (He did ace Braun out on WAR for position players.) It was a marquee season for the right-handed outfielder who played at least 300 games at each outfield post.
Daniel Murphy. The three-time All-Star second baseman who spent the first seven years of his 12-year career with the New York Mets set a Major League record of hitting a home run in six consecutive postseason games in 2015. The left-hander hit a brief stride following his signing with the Washington Nationals as he was runner-up to Kris Bryant for MVP honors in 2016 when he hit a National League-leading 47 doubles; Murphy again led the NL with 43 doubles the following year, earning a Silver Slugger Award in both seasons.
Rick Porcello. The 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner led the Majors in wins with 22 while losing just four games for a Boston Red Sox team that won 93 games to clinch the AL East and supported him with 6.8 runs when he pitched. It was a Cinderella season for the league-average right-handed starter, at least until he got lit up by the Cleveland Indians en route to a historic World Series; Porcello gave up five runs, including three home runs, in 4.1 innings pitched, although Porcello did win a World Series ring with Boston in 2018.
Fat Chance: Ryan Braun
A figurative offspring of Hank Greenberg as a Jewish slugger, the "Hebrew Hammer" got off to a roaring start, winning Rookie of the Year honors in 2007 and a Most Valuable Player Award in 2011, one of three top-ten MVP finishes including runner-up to Buster Posey the following year. Braun hit 408 doubles and 352 home runs in 7340 plate appearances during his 14-year career, all played with the Milwaukee Brewers, good for a .296/.358/.532/.891 slash line generating a 134 OPS+. The six-time All-Star also garnered five consecutive Silver Slugger Awards starting in 2008, building his case to join "Hammerin' Hank" in Cooperstown.
Then came a failed test for PED in 2011, accompanied by Braun's claims that his sample had been mishandled (true) and that a testing employee had made anti-Semitic remarks (not so much), followed by his admission that he had indeed used PED in 2011, his entanglement in the Biogenesis scandal the next year, and an eventual 65-game suspension in 2013.
Snagging Rookie of the Year and Most Valuable Player awards in the first half of his career, Ryan Braun then snagged PED notoriety that could doom his Cooperstown chances.
As Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodríguez could tell him, a PED taint after Major League Baseball's institution of its 2006 Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program is a kiss of death for Cooperstown chances. With 43.0 JAWS, Ryan Braun ranks 25th among left fielders, and he may get Sammy Sosa-level support to keep him on the ballot at least for a little while.
My Hypothetical 2026 BBWAA Ballot
For the first time in more than a decade, I don't have ten candidates for the Hall of Fame, let alone the need to agonize over the strategic voting needed because I have more than ten. In fact, I can't say that I'm terribly enthusiastic about voting for anyone on this ballot. Part of that is the familiarity with so many of these names along with the sense of futility for those names that I know won't ever get a Cooperstown plaque; even my sense of defiance is starting to flag.
Defiance Targeting the Hall of Saints
Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodríguez, Omar Vizquel
Worthy of Further Evaluation
Franciso Rodriguez
Legitimate Underdogs
Bobby Abreu, Felix Hernández
Not Inner-Circle but Genuine Articles
Carlos Beltrán, Andruw Jones, Chase Utley
Glossary
WAR: Wins Above Replacement, a measurement of player value as calculated by Baseball Reference.
dWAR: Defensive WAR, Baseball Reference's measurement of a player's defensive value.
JAWS: Jaffe WAR Score system, a WAR derivative developed by Jay Jaffe to measure Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging a player's career WAR with the WAR from his top seven seasons.
R-JAWS: JAWS modified to measure relief pitcher value.
S-JAWS: JAWS modified to measure starting pitcher value.
Slash line: A listing of a hitter's batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS), separated by slashes (/).
OPS+: OPS adjusted for league- and park factors and indexed to 100, with 100 being league-average.
Defensive runs saved: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is worth based on their overall defensive play.
Total Zone total fielding runs above average: The number of runs above or below average a fielder is worth based on the number of plays made.
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