Sheffield has a strong Hall of Fame case, but he also shares performance-enhancing drug (PED) notoriety with Bonds and Clemens although his is not as pronounced. After scratching to get to 13.6 percent of the vote in 2019, his fifth year on the ballot, "Sheff" jumped to 30.5 percent the next year and in his final year peaked at 63.9 percent.
Like McGriff, who had also spent ten years on the BBWAA ballot and had received his best vote tally, 39.8 percent, in his final year of 2019, will Sheffield now be elected on his first VC ballot?
Don't bet on it. Like Major League Baseball itself, the VC is the purview of the owners, who like nothing better than a rigged game they control.
Is this the year Don Mattingly gets into the Hall of Fame? Or Dale Murphy? Or both? Like the 2023 Contemporary Baseball Era ballot, this year's ballot seems gamed for it.
The Veterans Committee: Gaming the Hall
The veterans committee seemed like a good, even noble, idea when it was formed in 1939 to induct into the Hall of Fame non-players (executives, managers, owners, pioneers, umpires) and players overlooked from earlier eras.
The VC has also inducted some of the least qualified players into the Hall, sometimes deliberately so. A prominent VC voice in the early 1970s, second baseman Frankie Frisch, abetted by a fellow Hall of Famer, first baseman Bill Terry, maneuvered marginal former teammates, including starting pitcher Jesse Haines (32.8 WAR) and first baseman George "High Pockets" Kelly (25.9 WAR), into Cooperstown.
The current VC, which in recent years has undergone multiple reconfigurations and introduced various rules, is not as egregious although it has also nudged candidates into the Hall that the BBWAA, rightly or wrongly, rejected. Still, the VC's 2019 election of Harold Baines (38.1 WAR; six years on BBWAA ballot; best showing: 6.1 percent) with 12 of 16 possible votes did stink of rotting Frisch, particularly as three of the 16-member panel included Pat Gillick, Tony La Russa, and Jerry Reinsdorf, all significantly involved in Baines's career.
An endemic problem with the VC has been the repeated appearances of selected candidates, particularly those who had spent years on BBWAA ballots before becoming fixtures on VC ballots. Admittedly, this becomes a thorny judgment call.
For example, in the last few years, the VC has elected Gil Hodges (2022) and Dick Allen (2025). Hodges was on 15 BBWAA ballots, Allen was on 14 ballots, and both were on seven VC ballots. Hodges has a career 43.8 WAR and 38.7 JAWS, ranking him 41st among first basemen. Allen has a career 58.8 WAR and 52.4 JAWS, ranking him 17th among third basemen. (WAR and its derivative JAWS did not exist when either played baseball.) Does either one belong in the Hall?
The answer is academic since both are now in; the point is that they had had ample opportunities to be elected. Perhaps too many, which is why in 2025 the Hall tightened up its rules, which become effective on this ballot, regarding the number of appearances a candidate can make.
The advantage is that perennial candidates must now perform or die, opening slots for hitherto-unrecognized candidates from the contemporary (from 1980 on) era. The disadvantage is—not surprisingly—perform or die, since all candidates now have a short leash; poor performers will drop quickly. And permanently.
From the VC's point of view, poor performers include players who have both Hall of Fame cases and taints of scandal, such as PED poster boys Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. They can now be disposed of through this new rule change.
Should Bonds or Clemens receive fewer than five votes this year, they remain eligible for VC consideration; although they will be excluded from the 2029 ballot, they can return on the 2032 ballot. However, another subpar performance will end their Cooperstown chances.
In the meantime, names such as Steve Garvey, Gil Hodges, and Tommy John have appeared with numbing regularity along with Mattingly's and Murphy's. In 2026, both Mattingly and Murphy may see their names eliminated by the best possible outcome: having their ticket punched for the Hall by a compliant, willing veterans committee.
Claiming that the VC ballot is gamed evokes cliché images of smoke-filled back rooms in which collusion or conspiracy is formulated; in reality, voters simply glean the expected norms of the Hall of Fame mindset to learn how they're supposed to vote.
Occasionally, members of this elite among the elite say the quiet part out loud, such as Joe Morgan's pearl-clutching 2017 missive regarding PED Penitents, and although it targeted BBWAA voters, its intent could not have been lost on Morgan's Hall of Fame peers.
Thus, Bonds and Clemens may attract support from a few "rebels." But can the remaining candidates offer a challenge to Mattingly and Murphy?
Assessing the Newbies
Like Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent spent the full ten years on the BBWAA ballot, but neither Carlos Delgado nor Fernando Valenzuela gained traction with BBWAA voters. Will any of them gain any traction on this VC ballot?
The poor man's Fred McGriff, Carlos Delgado was a lineup fixture for the Toronto Blue Jays whose six-year peak from 1998 to 2003 generated a .295/.413/.585/.998 slash line, good for a 155 OPS+ and an All-Star-level average of 5.3 WAR per season. The two-time All-Star earned three Silver Slugger Awards and had four top-ten Most Valuable Player Award finishes including runner-up to Alex Rodríguez in 2003. The left-handed first baseman slugged 483 doubles and 473 homers, 20 shy of McGriff and good for a career .546 slugging percentage, and drove in 1512 runs while reaching the 2000-hit plateau with 2038.
Respected, dependable, and durable, with nine seasons of 140 or more games played among 2035 games in a 17-year career, Carlos Delgado was an excellent player at a position already packed with superlative ones; he ranks 38th among first basemen with 39.4 JAWS and 44.4 WAR. He may attract a couple of votes but is unlikely to progress further.
Jeff Kent had four top-ten Most Valuable Player Award finishes and clinched one in 2000 while playing for the San Francisco Giants, a team that included Barry Bonds, soon to win four consecutive MVPs. Knocked for his defense, Kent played more than 2000 games at second base, one of only 13 to do so, and he never slid to the corners or into a designated hitter role during the decline phase of his 17-year career. The right-handed slugger drove in 1518 runs and is tied with Hall of Famer Eddie Murray at 560 career doubles while his 377 home runs are the most by any second baseman.
A Larry Lunchpail kind of player, Jeff Kent had perceived "attitude problems" that didn't win him friends, and with 45.6 JAWS ranking him 22nd among second basemen, he is a borderline Hall of Famer. After slagging the VC for gaming the ballot, it may be hypocritical to urge enough of the Hall of Fame fraternity look kindly upon this potential brethren, but so be it. Kent is at least as worthy as Mattingly or Murphy.
In his 22-year career with eight different teams, Gary Sheffield compiled 60.5 WAR, 2689 hits including 467 doubles and 509 home runs, 1636 runs scored, 1676 runs batted in, and 253 stolen bases to go with a career slash line of .292/.393/.514/.907, generating a 140 OPS+. This right-handed slugger with six top-ten Most Valuable Player Award finishes and a World Series ring with the 1997 Florida Marlins has a bona fide Hall of Fame case with his 49.3 JAWS ranking him 25th among right fielders.
Threading the gap between ample HOF qualifications and shadowy PED notoriety, Gary Sheffield may be the best candidate. But will voters let him into their club?
Sheffield is the litmus test for what the owners, under the guise of the committee, are willing to accept. Whether, way back when, he knew what was in "the cream" or "the clear," and despite his being named in the 2007 Mitchell Report, Sheffield didn't dramatically alter his appearance or perform abnormally, which is neither exoneration nor indictment. But his Hall case is better than the ones for the presumptive pair, which his presence may be helping to elevate them to the Hall. How well, or how poorly, Sheffield does on this ballot will speak volumes.
Fernando Valenzuela began on top and slowly worked his way down. "El Toro" burst into the limelight in 1981 when he became the only pitcher to win the Cy Young and Rookie of the Year awards in the same season while leading the Los Angeles Dodgers to a world championship. Capping his made-for-the-big-screen debut was the "Fernandomania" rallying Latins to this appealing Mexican-born left-hander.
A rotation workhorse, he generated 31.2 of his 37.3 career pitching WAR between 1981 and 1987 until shoulder problems eventually took their toll. Apart from a bounce-back 1996 season with the San Diego Padres, Valenzuela was a below-league-average pitcher for the back half of his 17 seasons; his 36.5 S-JAWS ranks him 173rd as a starting pitcher. After retiring, he retained fan loyalty as a Dodgers radio and television broadcaster from 2003 to his death in 2024.
Fernando Valenzuela's inclusion on this ballot is curious since he is hardly an overlooked Hall of Famer. Cynics might speculate that given the Trump Administration's war on undocumented immigrants from Latin American countries, he is a public relations ploy while helping to clear the path to Cooperstown for Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy.
Evaluating the Final Four
By now, the sagas of Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens should be well-understood; conventional wisdom posits that each was already a Hall of Famer before he began his PED diet, got conspicuously bigger, and posted ridiculous numbers for players in their decline phase.
The sagas of Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, although hardly as lurid, are just as familiar because they've been in our faces since each began his Cooperstown odyssey at the turn of the century. Both spent the full 15 years on the BBWAA ballot, and both have appeared on the same VC ballot three times.
Debuting in 1976 with the Atlanta Braves, center fielder Dale Murphy notched back-to-back Most Valuable Player Awards in 1982 and 1983 and had two more top-ten MVP finishes. The seven-time All-Star also collected five Gold Glove Awards and four Silver Slugger Awards as he mashed 398 home runs and drove in 1266 runs in his 18-year career.
During his 15-year tenure on the BBWAA ballot, Murphy's voting peaked at 23.2 percent in 2000, his second year; he got 18.6 percent of the vote in his final chance in 2013, which marked the debut of Bonds and Clemens along with a shutout as no candidate was elected although ten were subsequently elected, four by the VC.
With four consecutive top-ten MVP finishes from 1984 to 1987, Don Mattingly won the award in 1985. Mattingly's nine Gold Gloves for his first-base play is second only to Keith Hernández's 11; he also has three Silver Sluggers and a batting title for hitting .343 in 1984. Indeed, "Donnie Baseball" was a premier hitter with 2153 hits, including 442 doubles and 222 home runs, in 7003 at-bats for a .307 batting average in a career begun in 1982 with the New York Yankees, the only team he played for until recurring back problems arrested his 14-year career.
With an encouraging debut of 28.2 percent in 2001, Don Mattingly seemed poised to make inroads toward Cooperstown, but his 20.3 percent the next year was the last time the six-time All-Star's support reached 20 percent. In his final year of 2015, he garnered a paltry 9.1 percent on what was already a crowded ballot.
Conclusion: Perpetuating the Subterfuge
As with Fred McGriff, electing Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy would not be a travesty but neither would it be exemplary.
With 46.5 WAR and 43.9 JAWS, Murphy ranks 27th among center fielders, and his minus-6.8 dWAR and minus-40 Total Zone total runs above average for his 1041 games played in center are not auspicious for one of the defensive strength positions. The 19 center fielders in the Hall of Fame average 71.3 WAR and 58.0 JAWS.
Hall of Fame? Or Hall of Very Good? Dale Murphy is a classic borderline case. But will fraternity voters consider him the right player this time?
As for Mattingly, his 42.4 WAR and 39.0 JAWS ranks 40th among first baseman, just ahead of recently inducted Gil Hodges. Mattingly's minus-6.2 dWAR is actually strong given that the positional value for first base is minus-9.5, buttressed by his 33 Total Zone total runs above average. The 25 first basemen in the Hall average 65.0 WAR and 53.5 JAWS.
Clearly, neither are close to the averages for their positions. But Hall of Fame admittance through the VC's entrance is more about compatibility than merit—the VC would rather have the right players than the best players, whether the cozy cronyism of Frankie Frisch or the Rule 5 "integrity, sportsmanship, and character" insistence of the PED-era backlash.
Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens embody the VC's latter attitude, with Gary Sheffield an X factor still to be determined. Carlos Delgado, Jeff Kent, and Fernando Valenzuela are not the strongest candidates.
The VC has seen stronger candidates including, in 2020, Dwight Evans (eight of 16 votes) and Lou Whitaker (six), encouraging showings on their first—and thus far only—VC ballot. On that 2020 ballot, both Mattingly and Murphy received three or fewer votes while on the 2023 ballot, Curt Schilling got seven votes, more than Bonds and Clemens combined.
Unlike the rolling ballot of the BBWAA, VC ballots are "reconstructed" each time by the Historical Overview Committee, appointed by the BBWAA and approved by the Hall of Fame's Board of Directors. Similarly, committee panels are also "reconstructed" each time. The 16 voters do not divulge their maximum of three votes, and while BBWAA voters are not required to make their ballots public, many of them can't wait to tell you how they voted.
What an ideal setup for gaming an election to get the desired results. Whether it knows it or not, the veterans committee is the owners' cat's-paw to shape the Baseball Hall of Fame their way.
Sadly, candidates are both victims and beneficiaries of this rigged system. Based on this year's "reconstructed" ballot, Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy are, now more than ever, in a much better position to be elected on December 7 based on this subterfuge they may or may not recognize. That, friends, is the politics of baseball.
Glossary
WAR: Wins Above Replacement, a measurement of player value as calculated by Baseball Reference.
dWAR: Defensive WAR, Baseball Reference's measurement of a player's defensive value.
JAWS: Jaffe WAR Score system, a WAR derivative developed by Jay Jaffe to measure Hall of Fame worthiness by averaging a player's career WAR with the WAR from his top seven seasons.
S-JAWS: JAWS modified to measure starting pitcher value.
Slash line: A listing of a hitter's batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (OPS), separated by slashes (/).
OPS+: OPS adjusted for league- and park factors and indexed to 100, with 100 being league-average.
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