Since it was so much fun last time, we thought we would do it again!
One thing that has not changed is the number. We will again debate twenty-four men who are on the ballot.
What has changed are the ones debating. Last year I had the pleasure of having DDT, the curator of DDT’s Pop Flies blog and D.K. of the Phillies Archivist blog. This year, Spheniscus, who has participated in past Rock and Roll discussions, will be joining me.
Chairman: We have taken some flak for having Trevor Hoffman ranked in the 40’s on the Baseball Hall of Fame list and there have been so many articles written painting him as a lock. Is he really though?
Hoffman was the career leader in Saves for five years (taking it over from Lee Smith, before being eclipsed by Mariano Rivera) but Saves are a stat that isn’t in vogue and for good reason, as you can go out, shit the bed for an inning and as long your team gets the win, you get that etched in the SV column, though I will say that 601 is a number that I can’t (or anyone) take lightly.
Here is my thing against Hoffman. He is constantly compared to Mariano Rivera, but Rivera blows him away in every stat, traditional and sabremetric. Actually in sabre, it is not even close.
WAR: Rivera: 57.1, Hoffman: 28.4
JAWS: Rivera: 43.0, Hoffman: 24.0
WPA: Rivera: 56.65, Hoffman: 34.12
Well, proving that Hoffman is no Rivera doesn’t exactly prove that he doesn’t belong in Cooperstown and at the very least he has other HOF relievers beat in many statistical categories.
Still, I am struggling to find that special intangible, and I can’t find it.
Spheniscus, what am I missing?
Spheniscus: Well, he certainly is better than Mike Hampton. He is an interesting case to me. He held the record while he was playing, so people presumed he’d be a Hall of Famer. But having the record hasn’t helped Lee Smith get into the Hall. And perhaps that is where we should start. Rivera is so far and away better than Hoffman, perhaps it is unfair to compare the two. So let’s look at three sets of stats below…
| PLAYER |
ERA |
ERA+ |
FIP |
WHIP |
H9 |
HR9 |
SO/W |
ASG |
MVP/CY |
| A |
2.87 |
141 |
3.08 |
1.058 |
7.0 |
0.8 |
3.69 |
7 |
5/4 |
| B |
2.31 |
187 |
2.73 |
0.998 |
6.0 |
0.8 |
3.99 |
7 |
2/2 |
| C |
3.03 |
132 |
2.93 |
1.256 |
7.9 |
0.6 |
2.57 |
7 |
4/4 |
All three of these guys are currently on the ballot and none are Mariano Rivera. If you could only vote for one, except for the number of times that he received an MVP or Cy Young vote, player B clearly appears to be the superior player to the other two players. His ERA is lower, his FIP is lower, his WHIP is lower, the hits he gives up per 9 innings is lower and his ERA+ and strike outs per walk is higher than the two other players. All of those things are good.
Bad news for both Hoffman (Player A) and Lee Smith (Player C) is that Player B is actually Billy Wagner. But Wagner has over 50 saves fewer than Smith and almost 200 fewer Hoffman and is likely a one and done. This despite getting the exposure of playing in New York versus Hoffman toiling away in San Diego and Milwaukee.
So is Hoffman a Hall of Famer, probably. Is he a shoo in? Not on this list. There are too many great players on this list. And with Mariano on the way, if he doesn’t get in soon there is a possibility that he may not get in at all.
Chairman: I went on a tirade on Wagner where I crapped on his post-season numbers. Hoffman’s are a lot better, but that isn’t difficult:
In six series, he pitched 13 Innings with 4 Saves, a 3.46 ERA and a WHIP of 1.231. Those aren’t bad numbers, but it translates to an average pitcher, which bothers me considering he is supposed to be one of the best of all time at what he did.
You know that intangible I was trying to figure out about Hoffman. I think I got it. When I was checking out YouTube, I came across countless fan videos of him entering to AC/DC’s “Hell’s Bells”. Not him pitching mind you…just coming out to pitch. His Baseball Reference page is sponsored by a fan, who is waiting to hear that song when he accepts his induction to Cooperstown.
That gimmick superseded that of comparable pitchers in larger markets…like Billy Wagner for example.
It happens all the time, most recently with “Linsanity” a couple of years back with the Knicks. Was he on fire at the time? Absolutely! But if he wasn’t a dorky looking Chinese guy, there is no way he would be as popular? Not a chance!
Honestly, I think that song accounts for a sizable chunk of his popularity, and yes if he is still on the ballot when Rivera gets there, he is screwed.
Spheniscus: He very well may be on the ballot when Rivera gets there, but he probably won’ t be screwed. Wagner will be gone. Smith will be gone. And who else is there to challenge him for the second closer spot? Danys Baez? Arthur Rhodes? Guillermo Mota? Francisco Cordero? Kerry Wood? Brad Lidge? Jason Isringhausen? Derek Lowe? Darren Oliver? I mean seriously, those are your closing options between now and 2019 when Rivera not only gets in on the first ballot but is carried aloft by a chorus of angels into Cooperstown. His competition in 2020? Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz, and Heath Bell. He’ll be fine.
If he is a Hall of Famer he should still be even if the greatest player at his position is a contemporary. The question is without the saves record for five years is he a Hall of Famer? I don’t think so. But he has that cache, so it makes it seem like he should be a Hall of Famer. Which means he probably gets in eventually. Just not this year.
Chairman: Yep. He probably will get in eventually, and agreed, not this year. He wouldn’t get my pretend vote, but where will he finish this year? I am going to throw out 38%, but if that swung twenty points in either direction I would not be surprised.
Spheniscus: He doesn’t get my pretend vote either. Billy Wagner was a better player, but literally no one thinks Billy Wagner is a Hall of Famer. That said he will definitely stay on the ballot and without Wagner and Smith to compare him to after this year will probably start making the climb to being a Hall of Famer sometime in 2022. Where does he start? The old folks will probably be swayed by the saves record. The young guys won’t. So I’ll say 30%.
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