If I Had a Vote in the 2016 Baseball Hall of Fame Election

First-time Candidates with Legitimate Hall of Fame Credentials

Even though, at least by my reckoning, you could fill the ten spots on the 2016 Hall of Fame ballot with just the holdover candidates from last year's ballot and still have three left over, there are four first-time candidates who are also in the serious discussion for the Hall: Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey, Jr., Trevor Hoffman, and Billy Wagner.

I've examined Edmonds, Hoffman, and Wagner previously in my evaluation of borderline candidates, and Griffey, Jr., seems to be a foregone conclusion, so we don't need to spend too much time examining any of them.

First-time Center Fielders

With a sweet smile and an even sweeter swing, Ken Griffey, Jr., was the Mickey Mantle of his generation: Gifted with tremendous baseball talent, Griffey accomplished towering feats on the diamond, but, like Mantle, injuries hampered him throughout his career and curtailed what could have been even greater achievements—Griffey had been on the very short list of hitters who could have broken Hank Aaron's career mark for home runs. As it is, he is sixth all-time with 630 home runs and one of only eight men to have hit 600 or more long balls. In his first 13 seasons, from 1989 to 2001, Griffey racked up 460 homers, including seven years with 40 or more—and, remarkably, he was just in his age-31 season in 2001, but that also marked a string of seasons shortened by injuries.

The son of Cincinnati Reds star outfielder Ken Griffey, Sr., "Junior" actually played with his father on the Seattle Mariners before the elder Griffey retired in 1991; the pair hit back-to-back home runs in a 1990 game against the then-California Angels, the first father-son duo to do so. Griffey, Jr., launched his star in Seattle, playing his first 11 seasons there, posting a .299/.380/.569 slash line while averaging, per season, 158 hits including 29 doubles and 36 home runs, 97 runs scored, 105 runs batted in, and 15 stolen bases; he posted a 149 OPS+ during this period, with his eye-opening 70.6 bWAR averaging to an All-Star-caliber 6.4 wins above a replacement player each year—indeed, Griffey was named to the American League All-Star squad in his every year in Seattle except his rookie year, and made 13 All-Star teams altogether.

Griffey was also the AL Most Valuable Player in 1997 when he led the league in five categories including home runs (56), runs batted in (147), slugging percentage (.646), total bases (393), and runs scored (125), and he practically duplicated those totals the following year while coming in fourth on the AL MVP ballot. In fact, Griffey finished in the top five in voting five times, including a 1994 runner-up showing to Frank Thomas, and in the top ten seven times.

But although Griffey won ten consecutive Gold Gloves with the Mariners from 1990 to 1999, and his spectacular play in center field has stocked many a highlight reel, advanced defensive metrics have not been kind to the Kid. His range factors and fielding percentage are just below league averages, and while as a center fielder his Total Zone rating is six runs above average (Baseball Reference calculation), his defensive runs saved is 42 runs below league average; his career defensive WAR is 1.3.

None of which is likely to affect his chances even if the second half of his career, played mostly with the Reds and marred by stints on the disabled list, features a more down-to-Earth .262/.355/.493 slash line, although his final two seasons, back with Seattle, are among the most mediocre of any top-level player, capped in May 2010 by his being benched for poor play and then being unavailable to pinch-hit allegedly for having been asleep, an incident quickly dubbed "Napgate"; Griffey retired soon afterwards, later claiming that he did not want to be a distraction to the team.

In addition to ranking sixth all-time in home runs, Griffey ranks 13th in total bases (5271), 15th in runs batted in (1836), 33rd in runs scored (1662), 35th in slugging percentage (.538) and 35th in bWAR among position players (83.6), 44th in doubles (524) and 50th in hits (2781); furthermore, Griffey's 83.6 bWAR ranks 35th among position players and 57th among all players while his 136 OPS+ ranks 100th. Even if "Napgate" remains fresher in the mind, Ken Griffey, Jr.'s, scoring the winning run from first base in extra innings in the decisive Game Five against the New York Yankees in the 1995 AL Division Series is the image voters will remember about Junior as they check his box for the Hall of Fame. Too bad not enough of them remember that it was teammate Edgar Martinez who hit the double that scored Griffey, but we'll get there soon enough.

One center fielder who came by his eight Gold Gloves honestly was Jim Edmonds, although in the latter half of the 1990s, playing for the California/Anaheim Angels, he had been overshadowed by the Angels' AL West rivals the Mariners and their center fielder Ken Griffey, Jr. Like Griffey, though, Edmonds was no stranger to the highlight reel—and unlike Griffey, he has the defensive metrics to justify the video acrobatics.

Since the Gold Glove was instituted in 1957, only seven other outfielders have won more of the award than Edmonds, while his defensive WAR of 5.9 is certainly respectable for a defender at one of the strength positions up the middle.

For comparative purposes, here are the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference Total Zone total fielding runs above average ratings, ranked by FanGraphs Total Zone, for center fielders currently enshrined in the Hall of Fame and (in bold italic) first-time candidates Edmonds and Griffey, Jr., along with Kenny Lofton, who was criminally one-and-done in 2013, and Andruw Jones, expected to be eligible in 2018.

The FanGraphs Total Zone ratings are for centerfield unless marked by an asterisk (*), which indicates that only overall outfield data is available. For Baseball Reference Total Zone, no data is available for players up to the 1950s.

Rank	Player	Total Zone—FanGraphs	Total Zone—Baseball Reference
1	Jones, Andruw	220	61
2	Willie Mays	148	176
3	Lofton, Kenny	115	115
4	Speaker, Tris	91*	NA
5	Carey, Max	86*	NA
6	Edmonds, Jim	83	80
7	Dawson, Andre	78	77
8	Duffy, Hugh	68*	NA
9	DiMaggio, Joe	49*	NA
10	Hamilton, Billy	30*	NA
11	Combs, Earle	6	NA
12	Griffey, Jr., Ken	4	6
13	Cobb, Ty	0	NA
14	Ashburn, Richie	–5	39
15	Roush, Edd	–6*	NA
16	Doby, Larry	–8	–5
17	Puckett, Kirby	–12	–12
18	Snider, Duke	–20	–7
19	Mantle, Mickey	–26	–10
20	Averill, Earl	–32*	NA
21	Wilson, Hack	–32*	NA

Should Edmonds be elected to the Hall, his FanGraphs Total Zone rating of 83 would place him sixth all-time. He ranks 17th in double plays turned (31) and 20th in putouts (4343) among centerfielders since 1954, and 20th in assists (116) among centerfielders all-time. But while Edmonds may in fact be one of the defensive greats in center field—you can believe the highlight-reel footage—how does he stack up as a hitter? Will his bat help to carry him into Cooperstown?

Qualitatively, Edmonds looks strong if not overpowering, with a slash line of .284/.376/.527 producing an OPS of .903 and an OPS+ of 132 (tied with Hall of Famers Tony Gwynn, Joe Morgan, and Jackie Robinson), with a wRC+ of 132 and a wOBA of .385. In 2011 games, with 7980 plate appearances and 6858 at-bats, Edmonds generated a bWAR of 60.2 and an fWAR of 64.0. Jaffe's JAWS ranking puts Edmonds in 14th place among all center fielders.

Quantitatively, Edmonds, who had been dogged by injuries during his career, compiled decent if not spectacular numbers. He fell just short of 2000 hits; his 1949 hits are 299th all-time. His 437 doubles are 126th all-time, just behind Hall of Famers Luke Appling, Roberto Clemente, and Eddie Collins. His 393 homers ranks 56th all-time, just behind Hall of Famers Duke Snider and Al Kaline. In runs scored, Edmonds ranks 146th all-time with 1251, and in runs batted in, he places 152nd among career leaders with 1199, just behind Hall of Famer Chuck Klein. Always a free swinger, Edmonds finished with 1729 career whiffs, 25th all-time, ahead of Hall of Famers Mickey Mantle and Harmon Killebrew and just behind Hall of Famer Lou Brock—although this is hardly an auspicious career highlight.

Edmonds never led the league in any offensive category. He finished within the top five in Most Valuable Player voting twice, in 2000 and again in 2004. With his career bWAR of 60.3—with FanGraphs giving him a more bullish 64.0—Edmonds deserves serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. Jay Jaffe's JAWS places Edmonds 14th all-time among center fielders, just behind Hall of Fame members Ritchie Ashburn, Andre Dawson, and Billy Hamilton and well ahead of several Hall of Famers including Larry Doby, Kirby Puckett, Max Carey, Earl Averill, and others.

Despite the highlight-reel catches, however, Jim Edmonds does not feel like a Hall of Fame player. He feels like one who is very close, but while Edmonds was a key ingredient on the Angels and later with the St. Louis Cardinals, with whom he went to the World Series twice, winning it in 2006, he was not the prime ingredient, one who shone like a Hall of Famer does. A truly stand-out season or an auspicious career offensive milestone would have bolstered Jim Edmonds's case for the Hall.

First-time Relief Pitchers

The only two relief pitchers to record both 500 saves and 600 saves are Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera, so it's no surprise that in 2014 Major League Baseball created an award given to the top relief pitcher in each league—previously, an award had been given to the top reliever in both leagues—and has named the award for each league in honor of Hoffman, for the National League, and in honor of Rivera, for the American League. Hoffman spent his entire career in the NL, mostly with the San Diego Padres, while Rivera spent his entire career with the AL New York Yankees.

Edgar Martinez, too, has an award named for him, for the outstanding designated hitter in the American League, but that does not seem to have helped his chances for the Hall of Fame. Then again, the Hall has never been receptive to honoring the DH or role players such as a relief pitcher. To date, only five relievers have been enshrined in the Hall: Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Rich "Goose" Gossage, Bruce Sutter, and Hoyt Wilhelm, and Eckersley spent the first half of his career as a starting pitcher before switching roles. The other four epitomized the era of the "firemen," especially Wilhelm, who in many respects pioneered the closing role.

The case of Lee Smith is emblematic of the Hall's indifference to relief pitchers: Smith is the prototype of the modern closer, the one-inning specialist who enters the game to record the final three outs. Smith retired after the 1997 season with 478 saves, the most all-time until passed by Hoffman and then Rivera. He has been on the Hall of Fame ballot for 13 years, but he has yet to reach 50 percent of the vote, let alone the 75 percent needed for induction. In 2014, his vote percentage fell to a tick beneath 30 percent, his worst showing to date, and he picked up scant percentage points last year to flop back over the threshold to 30.2 percent—hardly an encouraging sign as he has just two more chances for election by the BBWAA.

Adding to Smith's woes will be the appearance of both Hoffman and Billy Wagner on the 2016 ballot. Hoffman surpassed Smith as the all-time saves leader until he himself was surpassed by Rivera, and Wagner pulled within 56 saves of Smith. But as the number of saves itself is not an accurate indicator of relief-pitching effectiveness, and thus a criterion for Hall of Fame inclusion, let's examine these closers a little more closely.

The following two tables list various criteria of relief-pitching effectiveness, the first concentrating on the save situation itself, and the second on the effectiveness of the pitching in those situations, with each criterion explained below its respective table. The sample includes the five Hall of Fame relievers already mentioned along with (in bold italic) Hoffman, Rivera, Smith, and Wagner.

This table ranks the relief pitchers by save percentage and lists career statistics for end-of-game performance and the leverage—the "pressure"—faced in those situations. (Note: Dennis Eckersley's statistics are for his relief pitching only.)

Relief Pitchers, Ranked by Save Percentage
Pitcher	GF	SV OPP	Saves	Blown Saves	SV PCT	aLI
Rivera, Mariano	952	732	652	80	.891	1.868
Hoffman, Trevor	856	677	601	76	.888	1.914
Wagner, Billy	703	491	422	69	.859	1.812
Eckersley, Dennis	577	461	390	71	.846	1.398
Smith, Lee	802	581	478	103	.823	1.865
Wilhelm, Hoyt	651	295	227	72	.769	1.348
Fingers, Rollie	709	450	341	109	.758	1.604
Sutter, Bruce	512	401	300	101	.748	1.969
Gossage, Goose	681	422	310	112	.735	1.584

GF: Games Finished, the number of games in which the pitcher was his team's final pitcher whether or not it was a save situation.
SV OPP: Save Opportunities, the number of times the pitcher entered the game qualified to earn a save. Typically the sum of saves and blown saves, but rules in place prior to 1973 results in an anomaly for Hoyt Wilhelm, whose career dated back to 1952.
Saves: Credit to a pitcher for successfully maintaining his team's lead in a game, as defined by Rule 10.19 of the Official Rules of Major League Baseball.
Blown Saves: Credited to a pitcher who entered a game with a save opportunity but failed to maintain the lead, allowing the other team to tie or surpass his team's lead.
SV PCT: Save Percentage, the ratio of saves to save opportunities.
aLI: Average Leverage Index, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Measures the amount of "pressure" the pitcher experienced in his appearances. Average pressure is 1.0, low pressure is below 1.0, and high pressure is above 1.0.

This table ranks the relief pitchers by ERA+ and lists various measurements of the pitchers' performance in limiting opposing teams' offensive effectiveness. (Note: Dennis Eckersley's statistics are for his relief pitching only, with an asterisk (*) indicating an aggregate statistic as the reliever-only statistic is not available.)

Relief Pitchers, Ranked by ERA+
Pitcher	Slash Line	ERA+	ERA–	FIP–	WHIP	SO/9	SO/BB
Rivera, Mariano	.211/.262/.293	205	49	63	1.000	8.2	4.10
Wagner, Billy	.187/.262/.296	187	54	63	0.998	11.9	3.99
Wilhelm, Hoyt	.216/.288/.308	147	68	81	1.125	6.4	2.07
Hoffman, Trevor	.211/.267/.342	141	71	75	1.058	9.4	3.69
Sutter, Bruce	.230/.288/.340	136	75	78	1.140	7.4	2.79
Smith, Lee	.236/.306/.341	132	76	74	1.256	8.7	2.57
Gossage, Goose	.228/.308/.330	126	80	84	1.232	7.5	2.05
Fingers, Rollie	.235/.292/.340	120	83	83	1.156	6.9	2.64
Eckersley, Dennis	.225/.259/.352	116*	86*	84*	0.998	8.8	6.29

Slash Line: Aggregate opposing hitters' batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage against the pitcher.
ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.
ERA–: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA– indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.
FIP–: Fielding-independent pitching, a pitcher's ERA with his fielders' impact factored out, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 FIP– indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.
WHIP: Walks and Hits per Innings Pitched.
SO/9: Strikeouts per nine innings pitched, the number of strikeouts by a pitcher, multiplied by 9, then divided by the number of innings the pitcher pitched, to project the average number of strikeouts a pitcher would record over the course of an entire game.
SO/BB: The ratio of a pitcher's strikeouts to bases on balls (or walks).

With respect to save conversions, Trevor Hoffman ranks behind only Mariano Rivera in terms of effectiveness, behind only Bruce Sutter in average leverage index, or pitching in high-pressure situations, and behind only Wagner in strikeouts per nine innings. That last is significant because Hoffman, who had been a power pitcher before sustaining a shoulder injury, relied on a devastating changeup as his out pitch, although, like Rivera and his cut fastball, Hoffman too had a pitch that every batter knew was coming, yet those batters had difficulty with it all the same.

As a closer, Hoffman was remarkably consistent and remarkably effective. For a 14-year period, from 1994 to 2007, Hoffman averaged, per season, 58 appearances and 61 innings pitched, allowing just 46 hits including 5 home runs while striking out 66 and walking only 16, earning 37 saves while posting a 2.61 ERA, a 154 ERA+, a 1.020 WHIP, a 9.8 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio, and a 4.12 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. More impressively, he accomplished this while pitching for the San Diego Padres, which had reached the postseason during his time with them just four times, advancing beyond the first round only once. Admittedly, Hoffman's postseason pitching record is good but hardly auspicious, with a couple of high-profile blown saves. By contrast, Mariano Rivera is the greatest postseason relief pitcher ever.

But when compared to both his contemporaries and those relievers already in the Hall, Trevor Hoffman ranks among the best at the position based on both his qualitative and quantitative record. Jay Jaffe's JAWS system ranks Hoffman at 21st place among relievers, behind Lee Smith (although ahead of Rollie Fingers), but that is a ranking based exclusively on bWAR alone and does not tell the entire story as Hoffman's consistency and excellence at his position is among the best-ever at that position. (And JAWS also factors in Dennis Eckersley's not-inconsiderable bWAR as a starting pitcher, thus skewing the range.)

Although his relatively low profile may make Trevor Hoffman seem to be little more than a compiler, his quantitative and—more importantly—his qualitative record put him on a par with not only existing Hall of Fame relievers but also with certain Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera. He belongs in the Hall.


Will Trevor Hoffman, the first pitcher to 600 saves, make an impression on Hall of Fame voters in 2015?

That could also be the case for Billy Wagner, who may be the best relief pitcher about whom you never gave a second thought, but whose own record prompts serious consideration for the Hall of Fame. He may be the greatest left-handed reliever of all-time, but that will not be enough to get him into the Hall. Nor will his ranking fifth in all-time saves with 422, one of only five pitchers with 400 or more saves, although as we have seen with the qualitative comparisons for relief pitchers, Wagner looked pretty formidable with a 187 ERA+, second only to Mariano Rivera in our sample, and an unreal 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, which topped all nine relievers.

The two biggest knocks against Wagner are longevity and anonymity. Although Wagner's career lasted 16 years, from 1995 to 2010, and he made 853 appearances, all in relief, he totaled 903 innings pitched, which is light for Hall of Fame consideration as all the other relievers in our comparisons logged at least 1000 innings pitched. Moreover, Wagner, who had nine seasons with 30 or more saves, appeared atop the leaderboards only twice, both for games finished, first in 2003 with 67 finishes for the Houston Astros, and then in 2005 with 70 for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Wagner did finish within the top ten in Cy Young voting twice, placing fourth in 1999 and sixth in 2006; JAWS lists Wagner as the 20th-best relief pitcher of all time. An archetypal power pitcher with a fastball that could hit triple digits and that had good movement on it, Wagner complemented the heat with a hard slider, making him an outstanding reliever. However, that couldn't help him from posting a disastrous postseason record, and his contentious relationships with former teams further sullies his image, although neither aspect will be what keeps him out of the Hall of Fame. Despite Billy Wagner's dominating stuff, he did not dominate the leaderboards, and without the gaudy counting numbers, and until the Hall develops an approach to recognize role players—if it ever does—Billy Wagner will be lucky to stay on the ballot past his first year.

Another challenge to Wagner and the other three viable newcomers is the number of highly-qualified candidates returning from previous ballots, to whom we will turn now.