IF I HAD A VOTE IN THE 2015 BASEBALL HALL OF FAME ELECTION

Candidates for the 2015 Hall of Fame Ballot

For the 2015 ballot, there are 34 total candidates, 17 returning candidates from previous ballots and 17 first-time-eligible candidates. The returning candidates have garnered at least five percent of the vote last year (the minimum percentage required to remain eligible) and they have not exceeded their 15th year on the ballot. Last year, Jack Morris did not receive 75 percent of the vote in his final year of eligibility and was dropped from the ballot without being elected to the Hall of Fame. (Morris's next chance for the Hall is on a future Expansion Era Committee ballot.)

This year, Don Mattingly is in his final year of eligibility, Alan Trammell is in his 14th year this year, while Lee Smith is in his 13th year. With the rule change effective this year that limits a candidate to ten years total on a BBWAA ballot, provided the candidate maintains at least five percent of the vote during each year, all three of these candidates have been grandfathered onto this ballot; should Trammell and Smith survive this round, they will make it onto the 2016 ballot, which, barring election this year, will be Trammell's last chance; Smith , barring election (or receipt of less than five percent of the vote) this year or in 2016, will face his final ballot in 2017.

The remaining returning candidates are Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Fred McGriff, Mark McGwire, Mike Mussina, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, and Larry Walker. Should they not be elected to the Hall of Fame this year but receive at least five percent of the vote, McGwire would be facing his final year on the ballot in 2016 under the new rules, with time running out in similar fashion for Tim Raines.

The 17 first-time candidates are Rich Aurilia, Aaron Boone, Tony Clark, Carlos Delgado, Jermaine Dye, Darin Erstad, Cliff Floyd, Nomar Garciaparra, Brian Giles, Tom Gordon, Eddie Guardado, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Troy Percival, Jason Schmidt, Gary Sheffield, and John Smoltz.

The following two tables list the 34 candidates on the 2015 ballot, first the 23 position players, and then the 11 pitchers. They are ranked by their career Wins Above Replacement from Baseball Reference (bWAR) along with other representative qualitative statistics (explained below each table).

Here are the 23 position players on the 2015 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR. First-time candidates are marked in bold italic.

Position Players on the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Position Player	Slash Line	wOBA	bWAR	fWAR	OPS+	wRC+
Bonds, Barry	.298/.444/.607	.435	162.4	164.0	182	173
Bagwell, Jeff	.297/.408/.540	.405	79.6	80.3	149	149
Walker, Larry	.313/.400/.565	.412	72.6	68.9	141	140
Trammell, Alan	.285/.352/.415	.343	70.4	63.7	110	111
Raines, Tim	.294/.385/.425	.361	69.1	66.4	123	125
Martinez, Edgar	.312/.418/.515	.405	68.3	65.6	147	147
Biggio, Craig	.281/.363/.433	.352	65.1	65.1	112	115
McGwire, Mark	.263/.394/.588	.415	62.0	66.3	163	157
Sheffield, Gary	.292/.393/.514	.391	60.2	62.4	140	141
Piazza, Mike	.308/.377/.545	.390	59.4	63.5	143	140
Sosa, Sammy	.273/.344/.534	.370	58.4	60.3	128	124
Kent, Jeff	.290/.356/.500	.367	55.2	56.4	123	123
McGriff, Fred	.284/.377/.509	.383	52.4	57.1	134	134
Giles, Brian	.291/.400/.502	.388	50.9	54.5	136	136
Delgado, Carlos	.280/.383/.546	.391	44.3	43.5	138	135
Garciaparra, Nomar	.313/.361/.521	.376	44.2	41.5	124	124
Mattingly, Don	.307/.358/.471	.361	42.2	40.7	127	124
Erstad, Darin	.282/.336/.407	.325	32.3	28.3	93	93
Floyd, Cliff	.278/.358/.482	.360	25.9	23.4	119	118
Dye, Jermaine	.274/.338/.488	.354	20.3	15.3	111	110
Aurilia, Rich	.275/.328/.433	.331	18.1	26.1	99	98
Boone, Aaron	.263/.326/.425	.327	13.5	9.8	94	93
Clark, Tony	.262/.339/.485	.352	12.5	12.5	112	109

Slash Line: Grouping of the player's career batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage.
wOBA: Weighted on-base average as calculated by FanGraphs. Weighs singles, extra-base hits, walks, and hits by pitch; generally, .400 is excellent and .320 is league-average.
bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.
fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.
OPS+: Career on-base percentage plus slugging percentage, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 OPS+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.
wRC+: Career weighted Runs Created, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 wRC+ indicating a league-average player, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a player is than a league-average player.

For the position players, what emerges is a prime illustration of the logjam, at least based on this ranking by bWAR: Gary Sheffield muscles into the lower third of the dozen holdovers from the 2014 ballot, but the nine other first-time position players all fall into the bottom half of the table, and certainly the last half-dozen are making their only appearance on a Hall of Fame ballot.

On the other hand, at least they made the ballot. Left off the 2015 ballot are outfielder and first baseman Kevin Millar (.274/.358/.452), who in 12 seasons collected 1284 hits including 170 home runs and is probably best-known as a key member of the 2004 Boston Red Sox team that won its first World Series in 86 years; Mark Loretta (.295/.360/.395), a good-hitting, versatile infielder who in 15 seasons compiled 1713 hits including 309 doubles; Kelvim Escobar (101 wins, 96 losses, 4.15 ERA), a multipurpose right-handed pitcher who notched 38 saves in 2002 as a closer for the Toronto Blue Jays and 18 wins in 2007 as a starter for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim; and Chad Bradford, who as a middle reliever would have dropped into Hall of Fame obscurity in any case but who did post a career 3.26 ERA and 138 ERA+ in 561 appearances totaling 515.2 innings pitched but is best-known as the distinctive right-handed submariner who emerges as one of the central figures in Michael Lewis's groundbreaking book Moneyball: The Art of Winning and Unfair Game, an "overlooked" and "undervalued" player integral to Oakland Athletics' general manager Billy Beane's strategy to win big on a small budget.

As for the lucky few who did make this year's ballot, Darin Erstad made a serious run in 2000 at George Sisler's single-season record of 257 hits when he banged out 240 knocks for the (then-) Anaheim Angels, with his .355 batting average runner-up to Nomar Garciaparra's American League-leading .372 (Sisler's record was subsequently broken by Ichiro Suzuki's 262 hits in 2004); Erstad caught the final out in Game Seven of the 2002 World Series against the San Francisco Giants for the Angels' first (and to date only) World Series victory, and Erstad is the only player in Major League history to win a Gold Glove as an outfielder and as an infielder. Cliff Floyd won a World Series with the 1997 (then-) Florida Marlins, although he was a bench player who had three plate appearances in that epic seven-game World Series; as an outfielder and designated hitter, Floyd had three seasons with 25 or more home runs and four seasons of 90 or more runs batted in, and he was a solid if unspectacular player. Jermaine Dye was another World Series winner—in fact, he was named the 2005 World Series Most Valuable Player when he batted .438 with one home run and three RBI to help the Chicago White Sox sweep the Houston Astros and clinch their first world championship in 88 years, with Dye driving in the only run in Game Four off Astros' closer Brad Lidge; in 14 seasons, Dye amassed 1779 hits, 363 doubles, 325 home runs, and 1072 RBI, a fine career but hardly exceptional.

Of the rest, Rich Aurilia was a good-hitting shortstop mainly for the San Francisco Giants who batted .324 when he led the National League in hits (206) in 2001, which also saw him hit a career-high 37 home runs (slightly overshadowed by teammate Barry Bonds's record-setting 73 round-trippers that year); Aurilia also hit the first grand slam ever in interleague play against the (then-) Anaheim Angels in 1997, admittedly no more than an interesting footnote in baseball history although I happened to have attended that game at Angel Stadium. Aaron Boone is part of the third generation of Boones to play major-league baseball—grandson of Ray, son of Bob, brother of Bret—and he is a descendant of 19th-century American pioneer Daniel Boone; as the New York Yankees' third baseman in 2003,Aaron Boone hit a home run off Tim Wakefield of the Boston Red Sox to start—and end—the bottom of the 11th inning of Game Seven of the American League Championship Series as that dinger sent the Yankees to the World Series; that is the crowning moment of Boone's pedestrian career. First baseman Tony Clark may be the tallest switch-hitter ever to have a sustained baseball career—he is listed at six feet, eight inches—but apart from his slugging 251 home runs over his 15-year career, including four years of 30 or more long flies, with two years of 100 or more RBI while just missing that plateau by one in 1999, his career is that of a solid but undistinguished journeyman; however, in one of his portrait photographs used on stadium Jumbotrons—I cannot recall whether it was when he was with the Detroit Tigers or the Arizona Diamondbacks—he looked like a werewolf. That was pretty neat.

We will discuss the other four first-time position players below. For now, here are the 11 pitchers on the 2014 Hall of Fame ballot, ranked by bWAR. First-time candidates are marked in bold italic.

Pitchers on the 2015 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Ranked by bWAR
Pitcher	W-L (S), ERA	bWAR	fWAR	ERA+	ERA–	FIP–
Clemens, Roger	354–184, 3.12	140.3	139.5	143	70	70
Johnson, Randy	303–166 (2), 3.29	102.1	111.7	135	75	73
Martinez, Pedro	219–100 (3), 2.93	84.0	87.1	154	66	67
Mussina, Mike	270-153, 3.68	83.0	82.5	123	82	81
Schilling, Curt	216-146 (22), 3.46	79.9	83.2	127	80	74
Smoltz, John	213–155 (154), 3.33	69.5	78.7	125	81	78
Gordon, Tom	138–126 (158), 3.96	35.3	38.0	113	89	84
Schmidt, Jason	130–96, 3.96	29.6	37.5	110	92	85
Smith, Lee	71-92 (478), 3.03	29.6	27.3	132	76	74
Percival, Troy	35–43 (358), 3.17	17.5	11.7	146	69	86
Guardado, Eddie	46–61 (187), 4.31	13.7	8.1	109	92	97

W-L (S), ERA: Grouping of the pitcher's career win-loss record (and career saves, if applicable) and career earned run average (ERA).
bWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by Baseball Reference.
fWAR: Career Wins Above Replacement as calculated by FanGraphs.
ERA+: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by Baseball Reference. Positively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA+ indicating a league-average pitcher, and values above 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.
ERA-: Career ERA, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 ERA- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.
FIP-: Fielding-independent pitching, a pitcher's ERA with his fielders' impact factored out, league- and park-adjusted, as calculated by FanGraphs. Negatively indexed to 100, with a 100 FIP- indicating a league-average pitcher, and values below 100 indicating the degrees better a pitcher is than a league-average pitcher.

Of the seven first-time pitchers, three are very auspicious and will be discussed in depth below. As for the other four making their debut on this ballot, Tom Gordon may have had the most memorable career. A runner-up to Gregg Olson as the 1989 American League Rookie of the Year (Kevin Brown and Ken Griffey, Jr., were also in contention), Gordon posted a 17–9 win-loss record with a 3.64 ERA as a spot starter and reliever for the Kansas City Royals; unfortunately, the Royals' attempt to make him into a starter proved unsuccessful, a situation perpetuated when he signed as a free agent with the Boston Red Sox in 1996. However, when Gordon became Boston's full-time closer in 1998, he led the AL in saves with 46, with 43 of those consecutive, and those 46 saves are still a single-season Red Sox record; meanwhile, he delivered a 7–4 record with an impressive 2.72 ERA—and an even more impressive 2.45 FIP and 173 ERA+—and allowing just two home runs in 79.1 innings pitched. But arm trouble that required Tommy John surgery in 2000 derailed him, and although he returned it was as a set-up and middle-relief man for a half-dozen teams before retiring. Still, Gordon, who at five feet, nine inches was hardly the archetypal looming figure on the mound, managed to play for 21 seasons (not counting his 2000 season missed because of injury), which is notable for a right-handed pitcher, and Gordon is to date the only major-league baseball player to figure prominently in a Stephen King novel (The Girl Who Loved Tom Gordon).

It took a few seasons, first with the Atlanta Braves and then with the Pittsburgh Pirates, before Jason Schmidt got uncorked, and that only happened because of a mid-season trade in 2001 to the San Francisco Giants, where it is tempting to say that the pitcher-friendly dimensions of (now-) AT&T Park were conducive to the fire-balling right-hander who struck out at least 150 batters in six seasons, five of those consecutively, and who led the National League in ERA in 2003 with a 2.34 mark. That year, Schmidt was runner-up to Eric Gagné for the NL Cy Young Award, and he placed fourth in Cy Young voting the following year. But after signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2007, arm trouble dogged him, and Schmidt never recovered his form. He won 130 games in his career and struck out 1758 in 1996.1 innings pitched, but although the 16 (then-) Florida Marlins he struck out in a 2006 complete-game victory ties him with Hall of Famer Christy Mathewson for the most strikeouts by a Giants pitcher in a single game, that is as close to the Hall as Jason Schmidt will get.

Ninth all-time in saves with 358, Troy Percival enjoyed a nine-year run from 1996 to 2004 as the closer for the California/Anaheim Angels, saving at least 30 games per season during that time except in 1997 when he fell three short of that tier. Percival saved three games in the Angels' 2002 World Series victory in seven games over the San Francisco Giants, and during the 2002 regular season he posted a 4–1 win-loss record while recording 40 saves and a career-best 1.92 ERA. That ERA is a little deceptive, though, as Percival was always susceptible to the long ball: His FIP in 2002 was 3.03 as he allowed five home runs in 56.1 innings, and in fact the only run he allowed in three World Series innings was a solo homer to Barry Bonds in Game Two. In 708.2 regular-season innings, Percival allowed 85 home runs, or 1.1 per nine innings pitched, and although he was a strikeout pitcher—781 punch-outs, including 100 in just 74.0 innings in 1996, for an excellent 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings pitched ratio—his career FIP of 3.87 is significantly higher than his otherwise-outstanding 3.17 career ERA. In addition, Percival's lifetime total of 306 walks averages out to 3.9 walks per nine innings, which is balanced only by his excellent opponents' batting average of .188, and which translates to a manageable 1.108 WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched). Troy Percival was very good in his prime, but even without the Hall's bias against role players, his record hardly stands out as elite.

And as far as role players go, Eddie Guardado's career is emblematic of that. Starting his 17-year career with the Minnesota Twins, Guardado began as a starter in 1993, but when that did not work out (3–8, 6.18 ERA in 16 starts), he went into the bullpen, where he remained exclusively beginning in 1996, when he led the majors in appearances with 83 and solidified his nickname of "Everyday Eddie." Indeed, for an 11-year period from 1995 to 2005, the left-hander appeared in an average of 65 games per year, and in 2002 and 2003 the Twins tried him as their closer; he led the AL in saves with 45 in 2002 while notching 41 the following year. Signing as a free agent with the Seattle Mariners in 2004, Guardado did save 36 games in 2005 with a 2.72 ERA, his best earned run average in a season in which he pitched 50 or more innings. But despite the everyday reputation, Guardado had been beset by arm troubles throughout his career, and following a 2006 trade to the Cincinnati Reds, he began to be used as a LOOGY (Left-handed One-Out Guy) until his final season in 2009. You cannot play baseball, particularly in the contemporary game with its interventionist bullpens, without guys like Eddie Guardado, but as yet the Hall of Fame is hardly receptive to role players such as him.

The table below combines both position players and pitchers into a ranking by bWAR with their fWAR values also listed. First-time candidates are marked in bold italic.

All 2015 Hall of Fame Candidates, Ranked by bWAR
Rank	Player	bWAR	fWAR
1	Bonds, Barry	162.4	164.0
2	Clemens, Roger	140.3	139.5
3	Johnson, Randy	102.1	111.7
4	Martinez, Pedro	84.0	87.1
5	Mussina, Mike	83.0	82.5
6	Schilling, Curt	79.9	83.2
7	Bagwell, Jeff	79.5	80.3
8	Walker, Larry	72.6	69.0
9	Trammell, Alan	70.3	63.7
10	Smoltz, John	69.5	78.7
11	Raines, Tim	69.1	66.4
12	Martinez, Edgar	68.3	65.6
13	Biggio, Craig	64.9	65.3
14	McGwire, Mark	62.0	66.3
15	Sheffield, Gary	60.2	62.4
16	Piazza, Mike	59.2	63.6
17	Sosa, Sammy	58.4	60.4
18	Kent, Jeff	55.2	56.6
19	McGriff, Fred	52.6	57.2
20	Giles, Brian	50.9	54.5
21	Delgado, Carlos	44.3	43.5
22	Garciaparra, Nomar	44.2	41.5
23	Mattingly, Don	42.2	40.7
24	Gordon, Tom	35.3	38.0
25	Erstad, Darin	32.3	28.3
26	Schmidt, Jason	29.6	37.5
27	Smith, Lee	29.6	27.3
28	Floyd, Cliff	25.9	23.4
29	Dye, Jermaine	20.3	15.3
30	Aurilia, Rich	18.1	26.1
31	Percival, Troy	17.5	11.7
32	Guardado, Eddie	13.7	8.1
33	Boone, Aaron	13.5	9.8
34	Clark, Tony	12.5	12.5

Ranking the candidates by fWAR (the FanGraphs version) will alter the order to some degree but in most cases not enough to favor (or disfavor) a candidate significantly.

But who cares?

Seriously. Even cutting the ballot in two and concentrating on the top half will still leave more than ten Hall of Fame-caliber candidates, which is more than a voter can select on a ballot, anyway.

More significantly, though, and admittedly based on little more than the results from the past two years, I have come to the cock-eyed conclusion that ballot selection really resembles the seduction of women (the voters) by men (the candidates), and that the women (the voters) have already pre-judged the men (the candidates) and have placed them into groups of varying attractiveness.

So, with that metaphor in mind, let's look at the "men" in those groups.