Index
"Chicks Dig the Long Ball"
Home runs are the most salient aspect of the Steroids Era, and it is true that beginning in 1996 baseball saw a dramatic increase in home runs going back to at least 1980.Work stoppages in 1981, 1994, and 1995 affected seasonal totals as none of those years had full seasons of play. The 1994 players' strike took effect in August and forced the cancellation of the postseason—the first time since 1904 that there had not been a World Series since its inception in 1903, and the reason in 1904 was that the National League's (NL) then-New York Giants owner John T. Brush and manager John McGraw refused to play the then-Boston Americans (later the Red Sox) from the upstart American League (AL), which had come into being in 1901.
The strike was resolved in 1995, with play resuming in mid-April, and all teams played a 144-game schedule (instead of the usual 162 games) that year. However, fan disgust toward this interruption, at the time the most disruptive in professional team sports, was both palpable and lasting. MLB's popularity plummeted for the next two seasons—with the corresponding decline in revenue, a significant factor as these work stoppages are popularly regarded as "millionaires [players] fighting with billionaires [owners]."
Then came the 1998 season, and four players—Ken Griffey, Jr., Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, and Greg Vaughn—had all hit at least 30 home runs by the midseason All-Star break, and excitement soared as history appeared to be in the making: at least one hitter had a realistic chance of breaking Roger Maris's 37-year-old record of 61 home runs in a season, itself breaking the mark of 60 home runs set by Babe Ruth in 1927. Although Vaughn (50 homers total in 1998) and Griffey, Jr., (56 homers) fell short, both McGwire and Sosa swapped long balls into September. McGwire passed Maris on September 8—by contrast, Maris passed Ruth on the last day of the 1961 season and engendered controversy as Maris played in a 162-game season while Ruth had played in a 154-game season in 1927—and by the end of the 1998 season both McGwire and Sosa had shattered Maris's mark; McGwire finished with 70 homers while Sosa had 66. (Sosa had passed Maris's mark on September 13.)
The 1998 home-run chase has been widely cited as the event that "saved baseball" in the wake of the 1994 strike-shortened season as it seemed that even non-baseball fans were caught up in the excitement and anticipation. MLB began a series of television promotions built on the catch-phrase that "chicks dig the long ball"—and, indeed, home run production had soared to historic proportions.
The following table lists home run production across both major leagues from 1980 to 2012. It is listed by tiers starting with the total number of players who hit at least 20 home runs in a given season, then moving to that number who hit at least 30 or more, and so on.
| MLB Home Runs by Tier, 1980 – 2012 |
|||||
| Year |
20 or More |
30 or More |
40 or More |
50 or More |
60 or More |
| 1980 |
34 |
9 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| a1981 |
10 |
1 |
|
0 |
0 |
| 1982 |
51 |
16 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1983 |
41 |
12 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 1984 |
44 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| 1985 |
59 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 1986 |
62 |
13 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 1987 |
82 |
28 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
| 1988 |
45 |
5 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 1989 |
38 |
10 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| 1990 |
45 |
12 |
3 |
1 |
0 |
| 1991 |
49 |
12 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| 1992 |
40 |
10 |
3 |
0 |
0 |
| 1993 |
64 |
22 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| b1994 |
31 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
0 |
| c1995 |
59 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
| 1996 |
82 |
43 |
16 |
2 |
0 |
| 1997 |
81 |
31 |
11 |
1 |
0 |
| 1998 |
84 |
33 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
| 1999 |
106 |
44 |
13 |
0 |
2 |
| 2000 |
97 |
46 |
16 |
1 |
0 |
| 2001 |
89 |
40 |
12 |
2 |
2 |
| 2002 |
79 |
28 |
8 |
2 |
0 |
| 2003 |
81 |
29 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
| 2004 |
93 |
36 |
9 |
0 |
0 |
| 2005 |
77 |
27 |
9 |
1 |
0 |
| 2006 |
91 |
33 |
11 |
2 |
0 |
| 2007 |
84 |
26 |
5 |
2 |
0 |
| 2008 |
90 |
25 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| 2009 |
85 |
30 |
5 |
0 |
0 |
| 2010 |
75 |
18 |
2 |
1 |
0 |
| 2011 |
67 |
24 |
2 |
0 |
0 |
| 2012 |
79 |
27 |
6 |
0 |
0 |
a: Work stoppage halts season for two months; teams averaged about 107 games played altogether.
b: Work stoppage ends season; teams averaged about 113 games played altogether.
c: Work stoppage resolved; all teams played 144 games.
The numbers indicate a clear upward trend in home runs hit at each tier since 1996. Beginning in 1996, the number of hitters with 20 or more home runs in a season, across both leagues, has been around 84 per season, with a slight downward trend since 2010. The number of hitters with 30 or more since 1996 has averaged 31, with a similar slight downward trend since 2010.
The number of players hitting 40 or more in a season is even more dramatic, hitting double digits in all but three seasons between 1996 and 2006. The rarefied air of 50 or more home runs in a season is equally eye-catching. In 1991, Cecil Fielder hit 51 home runs, the first time since George Foster hit 52 in 1977 that any player in either league had reached the 50-homer mark.
But beginning in 1995, a 144-game season, Albert Belle slugged 50 homers (while also knocking 52 doubles—becoming the first player to hit at least 50 in each category in the same season). And from 1996 to 2010, 14 players hit at least 50 long flies, with six of those hitting 60 or more: Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire (twice), and Sammy Sosa (thrice)—and all three are the faces of PEDs in baseball. Prior to 1998, the year of the home-run chase that "saved baseball," only Babe Ruth and Roger Maris had ever hit 60 or more home runs in a season.
By contrast, between 1980 and 1995, the 20-or-more tier has averaged 47 hitters per year, and the 30-or-more tier has averaged 12 hitters per year—keeping in mind that this period had three seasons that did not play a full complement of games. That has especial intrigue in the strike-shortened 1994 season, when Matt Williams had hit 43 home runs in 112 games and Ken Griffey, Jr., had hit 40 in 111 games before play stopped, and we will never know if either or both were truly "on a pace" to equal or top Maris's record. Furthermore, MLB experienced expansion twice starting in 1993: That year saw the NL add the Colorado Rockies and the Florida (now Miami) Marlins, while 1998 ushered in another NL team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, and the AL added the Tampa Bay Devil Rays (now simply the Rays). In addition to adding to the number of potential home-run hitters, expansion typically results in a dilution of overall talent, meaning that pitching is not as strong, with the corresponding increased opportunities for hitters.
But the biggest factor in the spike in home runs, both in the total number of players hitting them and in the number of home runs hit per season by any single player, is of course steroids, at least according to the conventional wisdom. Was every player with an auspicious home run total, in a single season or for his career, really a suspicious player on the juice?
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