BASEBALL HALL OF FAME: UPCOMING BORDERLINE CANDIDATES, PART 1

Last At-Bats

In a Hall of Fame balloting environment distinguished by an embarrassment of riches in terms of qualified candidates—and underscored by the writers' de facto punishment of players with admitted or suspected involvement with performance-enhancing drugs—most of not all of the eleven players profiled in this article could get overlooked or discounted. Many of those players may not be of Hall of Fame-caliber, but a couple of them are, and few others are pretty darn close.

For me, Vladimir Guerrero and Trevor Hoffman are no-doubt Hall of Famers. Guerrero was one of the most dominant hitters in either league—and he played in both—over the course of his career, but with so many qualified hitters on the ballot already, he may be overlooked. Hoffman would seem to be an obvious choice, but he lacks the aura surrounding fellow relief pitcher Mariano Rivera; however, as we have seen, Hoffman was very durable and remarkably consistent while playing for a team, the San Diego Padres, that lacked the power and presence of Rivera's New York Yankees.

Of the nine remaining players, Jim Edmonds, Gary Sheffield, and Billy Wagner are truly on the bubble. I think that they ultimately fall just short, but if any or all three are elected to the Hall, it would hardly be unjustified or gratuitous. Sheffield in particular has excellent counting numbers and a strong qualitative case; certainly he would be a better pick than Andre Dawson or Jim Rice; however, I suspect that Sheffield's PEDs association will doom him. Edmonds lacks the big counting numbers and the truly stand-out seasons, but in the latter instance that could be more a function of high talent compression making it very difficult for a player to stand out. The ones that do are obvious Hall of Famers—anyone concerned that Albert Pujols may not receive any support when he finally retires?—and it is the borderline players who really make evaluations interesting. What is surprising about Wagner is how good he really was—he definitely deserves serious consideration—although as a reliever lacking the auspicious numbers and visibility of Hoffman and Rivera, he will be this generation's John Franco: one and done.

Of the remaining half-dozen, Carlos Delgado demonstrated sustained and consistent excellence and has nothing to be ashamed of in the least. He joins other first basemen such as Will Clark, Keith Hernandez, and Fred McGriff, whom Delgado most resembles statistically, as debate fodder concerning the possible unfairness of the Hall. Nomar Garciaparra looked to be on a path to Cooperstown during his first few seasons; his is an example of just how hard it is to get into the Hall of Fame even when you shoot right out of the gate. Jorge Posada, on the other hand, was late getting out of the gate, and that impacted his chances, although as a catcher—and one with the dynastic Yankees—he may get consideration over and above his statistical record. Garret Anderson and especially Magglio Ordóñez exemplify the solid player, the fixture, who deserves a spot on a major-league roster because he is consistently good, but consistently good, even for a long period, does not spell Hall. And Edgar Renteria, despite some high-profile moments and his playing a position, shortstop, of high positional scarcity, was another roster fixture but hardly an elite one.

So, just how hard is it to get into the Baseball Hall of Fame? With a couple of exceptions, just ask these players.

In part two of this series, we will examine the ten players expected to be on the ballot for 2018 and 2019 who may not strike you as Hall of Fame players—and who may be just that. Stay tuned.